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The Russians Aren’t Coming

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What exactly is our strategy for the Malthusian predicament?

 

In his autobiography, Hollywood director, Norman Jewison describes meeting John Wayne at a party.

“Have you met Norman Jewison? The film director?” I looked down the long flight of stairs, shirtless and clutching my pants. John Wayne stared back, swaying slightly and holding a large glass of whiskey. Before I could say anything, David said, “Norman has just directed The Russians Are Coming. He and Dixie are our guests for the weekend.”

Wayne continued to stare at me, his face expressionless. I managed to murmur, “It’s an honor to meet you, Mr. Wayne.”

“What are ya?” he suddenly shouted. “One of those goddamn pinkos?”

Speechless, I smiled weakly and scampered into the bedroom to finish changing. I could hear him bellowing about commies taking over Hollywood. When I slunk downstairs to join the party, I realized I was the only guy with a beard. This was foreign territory, politically speaking. Every time I saw the six-foot-four Mr. Wayne headed my way, I managed to hide. Remember True Grit? That’s what he looked like that night, and I’d heard that the drunker he got, the meaner he was.

He scared the hell out of me.

This week marks the third week I’m patiently waiting for my passport to return from the Russian Embassy, stamped with a fresh entry visa. No doubt the recent kerfuffle over false flags, spying and gassings have slowed such things down. I plan to go in July so hopefully there is enough time to get my papers in order.
Some of the questions on the form were impossible for me to answer, like “give the dates of every previous visit.” My memories of travel there extend more than a quarter century back, when I went to St. Petersburg as part of a citizen diplomacy program organized by Diane Gilman at the Context Institute. I have watched in the intervening years as the country went through its dramatic changes from communism to gangster-ism to consumerist multiculturalism. “Cosmopolitan” is a word that aptly describes a country spanning 11 time zones.
Why would Adolf Hitler make such a bonehead strategic blunder as to attack the Soviet Union? In Chapter four of Mein Kampf he explained:

The annual increase of population in Germany amounts to almost 900,000 souls. The difficulties of providing for this army of new citizens must grow from year to year and must finally lead to a catastrophe, unless ways and means are found which will forestall the danger of misery and hunger.

Hitler considered birth control, but says it would never work, and besides,

vengeance will follow sooner or later. A stronger race will oust that which has grown weak….

Then he considered the Wizards’ argument — that science will find the means to supply exponential growth —  but rejected it on Malthusian grounds.

It would, therefore, be a mistaken view that every increase in the productive powers of the soil will supply the requisite conditions for an increase in the population.

Hitler said that boosting farm output while increasing exports of industrial goods to buy food were temporary solutions at best. He called that strategy “pacifist nonsense.”
Acknowledging that it was too late and too expensive to acquire colonies outside Europe, he concluded that the only solution to the imbalance between people and land would be to acquire new territory inside Europe (and, along the way, exterminate as many other races as could be easily arranged).
We can look back on this now and heap scorn on the insanity and ruthlessness of Lebensraum but it was no more insane and ruthless than Europe’s genocidal march to the sea across North America or Israel’s march to the sea through Gaza.
Jewison’s book also tells the story of his Moscow premier screening of The Russians Are Coming:

The theater was bigger than Radio City Music Hall in New York. To sit in that enormous theater, jammed with over two thousand Russians, and watch their reaction to my movie was an amazing experience.

As the film ran, a Russian interpreter gave a simultaneous translation over the sound system. I had been told that if a Russian audience didn’t like something, they would make a “chuh-chuh-chuh” sound, so throughout the screening, I prayed I wouldn’t hear it. They laughed at the jokes in Russian that the Americans didn’t get, and everything was fine until Theo Bikel, the Russian sub captain, threatens to blow up the town. You could feel the tension in the theater, then the “chuh-chuhing” began. I thought, “Oh God, they thing they’re going to be made to look like the villians again.” But when the stand-off is broken by the little boy falling from the church belfry and the Russians help save him, the audience began a rhythmic clapping and many burst into tears. Directors Sergei Bondarchuk and Grigory Chukhrai were on their feet clapping and crying.

I was sitting next to Vladimir Posner, the Brooklyn-born editor of Soviet Life. “Why are they crying?” I asked.

“Because they didn’t make it first,” he replied.

I realized then that the film, although made primarily for an American audience, expressed the hopes and fears felt by people in both countries at that period in the Cold War. What the Russians of course couldn’t believe, and were blown away by, was the fact that I had been allowed to make the film at all.

My dad was the John Wayne of my family. He built a career bashing reds, even during the years our countries were allied fighting Hitler. When I foresook everything he stood for to join a Tennessee hippy commune (I am there still), he could barely purse his lips to spit. He came to visit, all the way from California, but refused to get out of the rental car. He never understood that it was neither him nor capitalism I was rejecting. It was the whole Orwellian mind control bit.
I get that we tribe from genetic imperative. We adopted that social animal chunk of our DNA millions of years ago as a defensive strategy against predators, the same as zebras banding together to cross a river full of crocodiles. We have to deal with extreme football rivalries, religious intolerance, political dynasties and Ford owners as a consequence.
But, please. Why can’t I watch RT without my ISP slowing down the feed? Why can’t I link to a Caitlin Johnstone or George Galloway story without Facebook trolls ridiculing me as a Russian pawn? How is it that so many otherwise intelligent journals like the Washington Post or The New York Times un-inquisitively parrot Cold War rhetoric coming from K-street think tanks and party apparatchiks?
Does National Security Advisor Bolton imagine that we will have an atomic showdown with Russia that will settle the matter once and for all? And if Bolton and the other neo-cons think climate change is a hoax, does that mean they think nuclear winter is, too?
A better question would be, what exactly is our strategy for the Malthusian predicament? Is it the UN Sustainable Development Goals? Famine? The Border Wall? Glyphosate? Colonies on Mars? What exactly is the agenda here?

In the end those whose systems of economics and governance are best equipped to confront the biophysical limits of the real world will be those best prepared to make it through the death-defying rollercoaster ride now just cresting for launch. The track is out ahead and I frankly don’t see anyone seriously planning to repair it.

Tick tock.
The Great Change by Albert Bates


34 Comments on "The Russians Aren’t Coming"

  1. Jef on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:14 am 

    Damn fine writing!

    None of the drawn out, over analysis of all the symptoms of Earths predicament clap trap.

    The agenda is everyone help everyone through what is coming.

  2. Cloggie on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:20 am 

    Why would Adolf Hitler make such a bonehead strategic blunder as to attack the Soviet Union? In Chapter four of Mein Kampf he explained… Acknowledging that it was too late and too expensive to acquire colonies outside Europe, he concluded that the only solution to the imbalance between people and land would be to acquire new territory inside Europe.

    Perhaps the only “bonehead” here is Albert Bates.

    He…

    https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-dbca65acec56fa590ee595a49e10f78d

    …wrote these words in “Mein Jihad”, while doing time in the slammer in 1924. He wrote these words under influence of the dramatic events of the winter 1918-1919, when Britain had installed a food blockade and killed up to one million Germans, to finish off a war they had planned since 1891 for no other reason than to get rid of a competitor on world markets. No wonder he sought to find a solution for his problem, how to feed Germany in a hostile post-Versailles world. In the East, there was a Russia that by 1917 was defeated by Germany and as a consequence a Bolshevik movement, led by millimind types, seized the opportunity to take over power. A devastating civil war of 5 years followed with the consequence that Russia after 1922 was so weak that the Austrian could begin to fantasize about colonies in the East. And was so stupid to write these words down for everybody to read… so they could be later used against him, albeit merely as a thought crime. Because once he was in power in 1933, the USSR had consolidated to the tune that there was absolutely no way that the original Levensraum plan of 1924 would ever be materialized. The truth is that Hitler NEVER again talked about Lebensraum-in-the-East after 1933.

    So why did he attack the USSR in June 22, 1941? Not for “Lebensraum”, that’s for sure, as the entire USSR was one giant garrison. The real reason why he did attack anyway, was because German intelligence had detected that the USSR was quietly busy with a general mobilization and intended to overrun Europe by early July 1941. The Germans had little choice but not to wait until they received the first blow from the Soviets, but deal the first one themselves. With the disadvantage that if you lose the war (which is what happened), your adversaries will find the “Lebensraum-quote” in Mein Jihad and accuse you of waging aggressive war and having planned war and conquest against “peace-loving USSR” all along.

    Not that this unsprayed left-green idiot lawyer Bates from Tennessee has any clue, he merely repeats standard Washington propaganda:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Bates

    History, basically a feel good show for Americans and an opportunity for American product placement. With the historic truth it has all very little to do.

    Tick-tock.

    About the truth regarding operation Barbarossa, according to a Soviet defector:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYSy80WlmWY

    Bates has great trouble understanding that Germany in 1933 was in exactly the same position as Russia is in now. The difference is that Russia has much better cards than 1933-Germany, because they have China as an ally rather than Italy. And in contrast to 1940, America is now a deeply demoralized and divided country. America was maneuvered in a war by Washington on purpose, for no other reason than to begin “The American Century”. With 29% global GDP and a quiet de facto alliance with Stalin, Washington could begin to dream about a world empire, to be established on endless misery in Europe. But the (((satans))) who had taken over the Washington government in 1933 were not motivated by Christian compassion.

    Fortunately (for Europe), the American Century is almost over and the truth will come out now.

  3. eugene on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:22 am 

    Personally, I find Americans to be an ignorant, mindless lot who stare at the nightly news never doubting or questioning anything. And that includes our politicians but what else to expect. An ignorant, mindless people can only elect ignorant, mindless politicians.

  4. Davy on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:51 am 

    “Personally, I find Americans to be an ignorant, mindless lot who stare at the nightly news never doubting or questioning anything”

    BS, pissed off people like you always have extreme positions. It feels good to be angry huh eugene.

  5. joe on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:51 am 

    Don’t blame Americans, its not the peoples fault. They are not in control of their foreign policy, no more than a navvie in Bristol in 1914 could have much say about fighting on the western front, Americans are not allowed to decide what the business men at the top want. It’s easier to make them think of say the bosses in China acting the way US political figures do, sadly there’s little difference, but making Americans SEE it as the same is what is impossible. The main difference is that in America you can say and do what you want, because the bosses can’t be stopped from doing what they want so they don’t care, in China the regime is always close to falling so they have to control the people.

  6. Davy on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:53 am 

    “History, basically a feel good show for Americans and an opportunity for American product placement. With the historic truth it has all very little to do.”

    Stupid history revisions that dovetail with a fantasy visions of the future. All these bullet points the neder preaches daily are part of his grand production of an alter reality that comforms to his personal emotional desires. FRAUD

  7. Cloggie on Sun, 20th May 2018 12:09 pm 

    “Stupid history revisions that dovetail with a fantasy visions of the future. All these bullet points the neder preaches daily are part of his grand production of an alter reality that comforms to his personal emotional desires.”

    But our fake intellectual from the Ozarks is careful not to engage in any real debate whatsoever, because he knows he gets his sorry libtard political correct ass kicked, right Davy boy?

    Meathead knows he is sitting on a pack of historic lies, but is determined to “sit it out” and hang on to the status quo of the US empire. All in vain of course. By not responding in detail he basically admits I am right.

    Al is de leugen nog zo snel, de waarheid achterhaalt hem wel

    (Dutch proverb)

  8. Davy on Sun, 20th May 2018 1:17 pm 

    nederliar, you realize Hitler attacked Russia because that was part of Hitler’s plan for European domination. Both countries were mobilizing especially Germany so your lie that Germany attacked Russia because of Russia is a lie. Quit your lies and distortions. You are a disgrace to the truth and a fraud.

  9. Plantagenet on Sun, 20th May 2018 1:33 pm 

    Thats a pretty funny John Wayne story.

    The rest of the writing, laying Mr. Bates sincere attempt to express his own opinions, is also funny but for different reasons.

    Cheers!

  10. LetStupidPeopleDie on Sun, 20th May 2018 2:01 pm 

    I disagree with helping stupid people. I told many people and they respond back to me that I am to negative and not talk about it. I even had one person yell at me.

    At see no point at helping stupid people and denier. Stupid people and denier deserve all the pain the can get. I will watch them being in pain and enjoy every minute. Their pain will make my pain more bearable.

    Usually in the animal kingdom, the dumb, stupid and weak get kill, maybe it is time we let the weak pathetic denier human die.

  11. Boat on Sun, 20th May 2018 2:41 pm 

    Clog

    Did Hitler commit suicide to avoid the humiliation of capture? Did your man take a large assortment of drugs on a daily basis while 10’s of millions of German citizens and soldiers died? Is it fake news?

  12. Cloggie on Sun, 20th May 2018 3:04 pm 

    “nederliar, you realize Hitler attacked Russia because that was part of Hitler’s plan for European domination.”

    Little guy, there was no German plan for European domination. The only ones who wanted to dominate Europe were the US and USSR. All Germany wanted was to take back German lands taken from them in Versailles.

    We meanwhile got rid of the USSR and we will soon kick ZOG out of Europe too, and if you are lucky from North-America as well (not that you deserve it).

    None of the German border crossings were motivated by desire for conquest:

    09-1939 Poland: the Poles had begun to ethnically cleanse Germans from Versailles Poland. There were already 100,000 German refugees.

    04-1940 Norway: it were the British and French who started to violate Norwegian neutrality by attempting to interrupt essential iron ore shipping to Germany. France, Britain and Germany invaded Norway on the same day.

    05-1940 Holland, Belgium, France: after the allied debacle in Norway, Churchill began to exert pressure on Holland and Belgium to give up on neutrality and allow overpass to British and French troops in order to attack the German industrial heartland (Ruhr area) and the Low Countries got weak knees and caved in. Germany knew it fould not escape war with France and Britain and decide to reciproke allied provocations.

    03-1941 Yugoslavia: the idiotic actions by “ally” Mussolini by attacking Greece opened up the opportunity for the British to “come to the aid of the Greeks” and use Thessaloniki to bomb the only source of fuel the Germans had, namely Ploesti in Romania. This forced the Germans to spread their forces thin and march through Yugoslavia in order to throw the British out of Greece. The British action was likely coordinated with Soviets. Stalin and Churchill were big buddies and had conspired together against Germany as early as 1934:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/churchill-stalin-alliance-as-of-1934/

    05-1941 Hess flight: the Germans are certain, the USSR is in state of full mobilisation and a Soviet attack is immanent. In an act of total desperation decide Hess and Hitler to fly to Scotland in order to contact key persons in the sizeable anti-war party in Britain. The flight ends in failure and Hess imprisoned.

    06-1941 Barbarossa: 3 weeks before the Soviets had planned to attack Europe, the Germans decide to attack first, to at least have the advantage of dealing the first blow. It was that decission that saved my country from a Soviet occupation and we were merely stuck with the (initially) smaller evil, US conquerers.

    This is the true story of WW2, covered up by allied lies, including holohoax, concocted in that Stalinist show trial in Nuremberg, and, accidently fully confirmed by Jackson:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/justice-jackson-has-to-admit/

    Do you have anything substantial to say to your defense, you fool from the Ozarks, who is prepared to cover up all the lies of a criminal regime, that seeks to phase out American (and European) whitey from history?

    Of course not. You love to clamp yourself to your illusion that you are “1%” and somehow will escape the multicultural nightmare that will soon unfold, after Trump.

  13. MASTERMIND on Sun, 20th May 2018 3:29 pm 

    eugene

    Great points..And just ignore Davy..he links to zerohedge click bait nonstop..

  14. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 20th May 2018 3:34 pm 

    Americans are all fat, rude, and stupid.
    Also pot & meth-addicted.

  15. Davy on Sun, 20th May 2018 3:52 pm 

    lies, nederliar, lies. You are fighting accepted history. Yes, I don’t believe all the propaganda but the core issues are documented and you are wrong to dismiss core history. I am not even going to waste my time on your filth. You can’t have your cake and eat it. This is what you want. You want to paint the Germans as victims and they weren’t. You do this to conform to your own personal emotional agenda. The Allies committed war crimes I agree but this is after Hitler’s German atrocities. Go bite yourself you ugly subhuman animal

  16. Cloggie on Sun, 20th May 2018 4:09 pm 

    Yes, I don’t believe all the propaganda but the core issues are documented and you are wrong to dismiss core history. I am not even going to waste my time on your filth.

    That’s because you can’t. You are spending your entire life on this board, but mysteriously you “have no time” to address the issues I bring forward even once.

    Because you know that “my” version is true. You have no defense. How much trouble can it be to write a single post, explaining your version of WW2, like I have done regularly. You have a bad conscious and you cringe at the foreboding of what will happen when the US will no longer be powerful enough to enforce its lies. Expect Russia to be ready to unload the full truth on a for them convenient moment.

    You want to paint the Germans as victims and they weren’t.

    That is exactly what they were and still are.

    You do this to conform to your own personal emotional agenda.

    I have no political ambitions, but I sure as hell want to defend my civilization against those who seek to wipe it out. We in Europe have only one serious enemy, and that is those who behind the scenes run Washington.

    The Allies committed war crimes I agree but this is after Hitler’s German atrocities.

    What atrocities? Since when is Washington concerned about human atrocities, that bunch of filthy city nukers.

    The truth is, as we have seen for years on end, that you are unwilling to take up the gauntlet and defend your country against the accusation that it set up Europe for war. Because you are smart enough to know that there is no defense, other than the platitudes spoon-fed to the boobs via the media.

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/chamberlain-and-the-forrestal-diaries/

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/bullitt-reveals-in-april-1939-that-war-has-been-decided-upon/

    But now the tide is turning. Your country is on the verge of descending in a devastating civil war that will rip it apart. Better pray we will come to your aid.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va6MAwexpnE

  17. Davy on Sun, 20th May 2018 6:12 pm 

    liar, fraud, and loud mouth. Take your nazi agenda elsewhere you holdem. You 24/7 this forum with your filth. You are a disgusting subhuman thing that needs to be silenced.

  18. Harquebus on Sun, 20th May 2018 6:21 pm 

    I often wonder if much of this online banter causing so much social outrage, is actually bot vs bot. One clue might be how often one or both sides repeats themselves.

  19. MASTERMIND on Sun, 20th May 2018 6:35 pm 

    Look at the number of school shootings in America. Its just exploding!

    https://imgur.com/a/zeddDRb

    Source: Wiki
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_school_shootings_in_the_United_States

  20. Cloggie on Sun, 20th May 2018 9:32 pm 

    “liar, fraud, and loud mouth. Take your nazi agenda elsewhere you holdem. You 24/7 this forum with your filth. You are a disgusting subhuman thing that needs to be silenced.”

    Another embarrassing defeat of the lying little one in the eyes of the world. The mass murder apologist can’t win, gets his ass kicked again, with nobody coming to his ais, not even his owner millikike, and now his opponent “needs to be silenced”. Poor meathead, claims to “have no time”, but everybody senses he knows he is defeated, as always. But you can run, little cuck, but you can’t hide. Once you are down and that moment isn’t very far of, then the historic truth will be pushed into your ugly face, like a 4 week old cream pie with a goat shit topping.lol

  21. GregT on Sun, 20th May 2018 11:48 pm 

    “liar, fraud, and loud mouth. Take your nazi agenda elsewhere you holdem. You 24/7 this forum with your filth. You are a disgusting subhuman thing that needs to be silenced.”

    Still no considerate, logical, or coherent rebuttal Davy? You’ve had far more than enough opportunity to do so.

    Either step up to the plate, or STFU already, psycho-boy.

  22. GregT on Mon, 21st May 2018 12:28 am 

    “Look at the number of school shootings in America. Its just exploding!”

    It’s a cultural thing MM.

    America has always been about the exploitation and mass murder of others. What goes around, comes around. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

  23. Free Speech Forum on Mon, 21st May 2018 1:35 am 

    Americans beg for their chains.

    Part of the reason the US is a police state now is that whites think white people are exempt from tyranny and black people think tyranny for everyone is fine if blacks don’t have rights.

    If the US could be a free country in 1899 and 1999 then why can’t the USA be a free country now?

    Why can’t we have freedom for everyone?

  24. Davy on Mon, 21st May 2018 5:36 am 

    “Still no considerate, logical, or coherent rebuttal Davy? You’ve had far more than enough opportunity to do so. Either step up to the plate, or STFU already, psycho-boy.”

    Back to supporting the meme Hitler was a victim and Holocaust denial. What a loser. Good thing you are largely irrelevant anymore.

  25. Davy on Mon, 21st May 2018 5:48 am 

    “Another embarrassing defeat of the lying little one in the eyes of the world.”
    This is not me stupid I could give a shit about WWII history in regards to me personally. This is about the integrity of the core of history IMA a huge history of the period you conveniently distill down to a few lines and say “Here is the real Nazi past”. Go back in your hole, liar.

    “The mass murder apologist can’t win”
    I am here on an American critical site talking about American issues that are bad. When I do say something American critical you take it and run a mile with it. It takes balls to try to have balance on a warped forum like this between the blind lying liberals and the likes of the nedernazi. Much of the time I am trying to balance out the extremism with basic facts this leaves the impression I am a flag waiver. You can talk bad about the US if it is legitimate and much of the time it is not here because anti-Americans get emotional and extreme about it. If you are going to talk bad then do it well of I will shove it in your ass.

    Nedernazi, you are a liar. You are a revisionist preaching a fantasy future. You are so warped you already talk like it is. Much of this is because your past is a storybook of failure you now want to erase. You are an extreme rightwing Euro chauvinist. This makes you just as disgusting as the Jews you hate and other extremists. It is extremist right and left like you that are killing civilization both white and colored.

  26. Cloggie on Mon, 21st May 2018 6:00 am 

    I am here on an American critical site talking about American issues that are bad. When I do say something American critical you take it and run a mile with it. It takes balls to try to have balance on a warped forum like this between the blind lying liberals and the likes of the nedernazi. Much of the time I am trying to balance out the extremism with basic facts this leaves the impression I am a flag waiver. You can talk bad about the US if it is legitimate and much of the time it is not here because anti-Americans get emotional and extreme about it. If you are going to talk bad then do it well of I will shove it in your ass.

    The only one who is emotional here, with foam on the lips, is you.

    Now calm down and use this forum for what it is intended to be: rational debate.

    Give is us in a mid-size post (of which you have written many, mainly abstract ones about collapse in the broadest sense), painting with a broad brush, what according to you happened during WW2. including the motivations of the participants.

    Good luck!

    To help you a little, here my views concerning motivations:

    Germany: return of Danzig, Sudetenland, Memel, Rheinland back to Germany + corridor to Prussia

    USA: world empire (1933-2016)

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/time-life-the-american-century/

    USSR: world empire (1917-1945)

    https://tinyurl.com/ycmu7rv2

    Chamberlain Britain: accommodation with Germany

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/chamberlain-and-the-forrestal-diaries/

    Churchill war party (Cooper, Vansittart): promoting the interests of organised Jewry

    https://tinyurl.com/yawmasef
    (Churchill the servant, Baruch the master)

  27. Cloggie on Mon, 21st May 2018 6:09 am 

    https://tinyurl.com/y8cfspbx

    PM Churchill and president Eisenhower visiting Baruch in NYC in 1952.

  28. Davy on Mon, 21st May 2018 6:11 am 

    “Now calm down and use this forum for what it is intended to be: rational debate.”
    STFU nederliar, your whole presence here is emotional and extreme. You spend 24/7 spamming this forum with your emotional agenda of lies, distortions, and embellishments of revisions and fantasy.

    I though you said the other day you worked during the week. Why aren’t you working now dumbass? You are a lazy wack job that spends his life on his easy chair pounding away at his IPAD. You talk and do not do? You are a FRAUD.

    The core of world history is behind me not you. As the biggest board dumbass says “NUFF SAID”.

  29. Davy on Mon, 21st May 2018 6:18 am 

    “RUT ROW” says the nederliar, “I hate reality” “It makes my fantasy so hard to maintain.”

    “Trader: Italy On Verge Of Inducing Fresh European Crisis”
    https://tinyurl.com/y6waonme

    “Tired (or maybe bored) of worrying about rising interest rates, a rising dollar and higher oil prices? Then fear not, because according to Bloomberg macro strategist and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore, you can now start worrying about a new, or rather well-forgotten, potential risk flashpoint, namely Italy which, as he writes in his latest Macro View note overnight, is “on the verge of inducing a fresh European crisis.” Full note below. Italy on Verge of Inducing a Fresh European Crisis It may be time to move on from rising Treasury yields and trade wars. An Italian-led euro crisis is on the verge of becoming the dominant theme for markets. It turns out that the euro break-up trade isn’t dead — it’s just been hibernating and is likely to return with a vengeance in the months ahead if the populists get their way. Their proposed economic policies make no attempt at debt sustainability. Italy already has the largest absolute debt pile in the EU and the second-largest, after Greece, as a percentage of GDP, at 132%. The coalition’s plan sends the signal that it has no intention of ever paying back its debt. Things could spiral quickly because its fiscal promises will send BTP yields much higher, adding to refinancing costs and making the budgetary situation worse.”

    “That creates a dilemma for the EU. Either fund Italy’s largesse at the expense of every other member country, or kick Italy out of the euro. The first option isn’t sustainable. This isn’t a relatively containable problem like Greece. Italy’s economy is almost ten times the size of Greece’s and the third-largest in the euro zone. The PIIGS — Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain — were only ever a problem as a group because of concerns that the contagion would infect Italy. And this isn’t just a sovereign debt problem. Italy’s banks have by far the most non- performing loans in the euro zone, more than a quarter of the total. A section of the plan makes it harder for banks to repossess collateral, further deteriorating the value of those loans. So while the policy platform doesn’t explicitly state an intention to leave the euro, the new government plan, if instituted as is, makes that the inevitable end-game.”

  30. Cloggie on Mon, 21st May 2018 6:22 am 

    STFU nederliar, your whole presence here is emotional and extreme. You spend 24/7 spamming this forum with your emotional agenda of lies, distortions, and embellishments of revisions and fantasy.

    I though you said the other day you worked during the week. Why aren’t you working now dumbass? You are a lazy wack job that spends his life on his easy chair pounding away at his IPAD. You talk and do not do? You are a FRAUD.

    The core of world history is behind me not you. As the biggest board dumbass says “NUFF SAID”.

    Why are you avoiding a real discussion? Do you have something to hide, Davy?

    Regarding work, bank holiday today:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecost

    In Europe holidays are taking seriously. And since it is beautiful weather today, I think I’m going for a bicycle tour this afternoon through the forest to the Belgian border,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrEmBZeB7GU

    …find a terrace…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdnDFEdmx8I

    … and have some cheese and wine. You know how we Europeans are.

  31. Cloggie on Mon, 21st May 2018 6:28 am 

    Poor Davy, another day, another defeat.

    Fortunately there is still Google. You hear meathead typing in rage to take revenge and find some article that says that Europe will soon fall apart.

    Your motivations are transparent like that of a 12 year old.

    Oh wait…

  32. Davy on Mon, 21st May 2018 7:11 am 

    “Why are you avoiding a real discussion? Do you have something to hide, Davy?”
    Spit it out dumbass, what about the core of world history that does not include your fantasy revisions?

    “Regarding work, bank holiday today:”
    You stupid Eurotards never work. You are one big holiday. No wonder euroland is still a pawn and economic backwater.

    “Poor Davy, another day, another defeat.”
    If I was defeated why do I constantly get your attention? Maybe because I have you pegged as a FRAUD.

    “Fortunately there is still Google. You hear meathead typing in rage to take revenge and find some article that says that Europe will soon fall apart.”
    Funny, how you have no response to current events. Of course history revisions are another story because you have a large well-crafted library of lies to draw from with your WordPress BS.

  33. Cloggie on Mon, 21st May 2018 8:22 am 

    “You stupid Eurotards never work. You are one big holiday. No wonder euroland is still a pawn and economic backwater.”

    You seriously want me to bring up comparative agricultural export numbers between the US (330m, 10m km2) and Holland (17m, 44k km2) again?

    You should be glad that we in Europe have so much holidays. To paraphrase Bush, it is a pity that Americans have no word for “joi de vivre”, it is work, work, work in order to buy Chinese “stuff”.

    https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2016/23/nederland-tweede-landbouwexporteur-ter-wereld

    US 182
    NL 112
    DE 110

    Mhoaahaha

  34. Davy on Mon, 21st May 2018 8:42 am 

    WTF does that have to do with lazy? Besides, you again play the numbers game by choosing AG exports. Try total ag production and get back to me

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