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Page added on April 22, 2014
The Peak Oil Concernist Dilemma
Here’s where my head is at.
Life’s nice at the top of the mountain. For now.
I started this blog because I wanted to give myself extra motivation to act. My family does truly feel that we’re nearing a breaking point for modern society. At the same time, we have 2 small children, own a home in a rural setting and are attached to 9-5 employment. We’d very much like to live a lifestyle more rooted in sustainable practices and community (so that we have better skills when societal breakdown occurs), but we’re tethered to our current situation as a matter of financial responsibility.
What have I done in the time since I started this blog? Well, nothing. I even stopped posting to it out of guilt.
I am as convinced as ever that in the next 2-10ish years global civilization will be upended by our over dependence on oil. In the last 100 years population has quadrupled and the way we move, feed, treat and please these peoples has become completely reliant on cheap/abundant oil.
We’ll fail as a civilization once it is less abundant. It’s a bell curve with reliable 40 year cycles of field discovery, field maximum and field decline. We’re at the top of it as the best oil fields are now reaching terminal decline. Demand vs supply is not a game we’re going to win at, folks. There will not be adequate warning as that would be anti-economy and anti vote getting. We will just all of a sudden start to see “sorry no fuel” signs.
The 70’s oil crash was simply the domestic version of our global reality. It was the preview. This time there will not be a new Saudi Arabia to tap. Wonder why we’re fracking, drilling in deeper water and building crazy expensive pipelines? Because the easy/cheap stuff is tapped and we have no choice. These actions produce a sliver of the oil the declining fields produce and often produce enough for months, not years. Think global demand will go down? Oh, you must have forgot about India and China.
At the same time, I’m saving for retirement (in a market that is likely to crash out), college funds and paying off mortgages and car leases while living the uber-traditional American consumption lifestyle I was born into. It would be irresponsible of me to do anything else during my earning years. I want to prepare, feel strongly that I’ll wish I had, but am apparently helpless to do that in any meaningful way without society painting me as careless to my traditional responsibilities. So I go through life basically hoping I’m wrong.
I guess what I want is ideas. Support. Hate. Feedback of any kind.
Even if I knew that in 7.4 years it will all hit the fan, would that even be enough to get me to plan now? It’s an odd equation comparing future distant pain to current pleasure.
I suppose that’s the Peak Oil Concernist Dilemma.
“The 70’s oil crash was simply the domestic version of our global reality. It was the preview. This time there will not be a new Saudi Arabia to tap.
TNR Times – The New Responsible
11 Comments on "The Peak Oil Concernist Dilemma"
J-Gav on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 1:11 pm
“… while living the über-traditional American consumption lifestyle I was born into.” Well, get re-born OUT of it, TNR – that would be a good place to start before asking other peoploe for support.
ghung on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 1:56 pm
What baffles me is that folks continue to live in an all-or-nothing mindset. Seems Alex has some wiggle room for now but is confused which way to go. There are no turnkey solutions; just tools that can be added to one’s toolkit.
Personally, we have been milking BAU for what ever lasting benefits we can derive while planning for the worst; a win/win strategy so far. Disconnecting from complex unsustainable systems is best done incrementally. I didn’t go all-in for gardening in one year. Every year is something new. Our off-grid systems were built modularly over a period of years. Weaning ourselves from useless consumption didn’t happen overnight, etc.
Pick one goal, one task, one skill, prioritize, get’er done, move on. Oh yeah; and forget that annual cruise or golf vacation and stop ordering pizzas. Buy a woodstove or solar water heater instead. Meet the neighbors….
GregT on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 6:47 pm
From very good advice above from ghung.
We don’t know exactly how long it will take before this mess finally unravels. The longer we have to make preparations, the better. Waiting until the last minute, isn’t the wisest course of action.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 8:49 pm
Echo Greg, well put G!
FloridaGirl on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 8:55 pm
I’ve got a foot in both worlds where I’m using my 9-5 job to fund my preps. I’ve got solar panels and I’m trying to learn to live within their production but I’m still on grid while I’m learning. I have a farm with animals and I’m learning to grow food organically. My gardens are small because I don’t have much spare time but I’m learning. It takes a lot of time to learn because if you make a mistake, you have to wait till next season to try again. Fortunately in Florida, we have 2 seasons plus Winter cool season vegetables and citrus. I consider all this my responsible retirement planning. Like ghung said, you can do a little at a time.
ghung on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 9:27 pm
FloridaGirl: “I’ve got solar panels and I’m trying to learn to live within their production but I’m still on grid while I’m learning.”
It’s not what you can’t do; it’s what you can do. Focus on that and you’ll be ahead of the curve. Can you charge a cell phone or tablet? Keep a few lights on? Keep a small refrigerator/freezer refrigerated and frozen? I lived off grid in Florida in the ’80s, and being able to make a little ice was pretty cool 😉 Make it a hobby and see what you can do. Beats the crap out of going to Disney World.
Ty on Tue, 22nd Apr 2014 9:56 pm
I think this post is pointing out an important fact.
Understanding and action needs to be guided by intuition, one’s own capabilities, and how things evolve.
I was born off the grid with no stores, no services, no access to anything. But I”m living 9-5…no that would be too easy. I”m working 10 to 15 hours per day in high-teck, and live in suburbia.
Here is how I see things. This is not how I want to see them, but this is what I sense is actually happening.
Competition for what’s left is trickling down to the lowest levels. BAU is going to survive by keeping the monetary system just functional enough to keep the middle class making gadgets for the rich, and the working poor serving the basic needs of the middle class. Society is slowly becoming more and more exclusive.
But it aint happening fast, and I see this more as a grinding process where we can only perceive the (negative) progress when we stand up and look back. I’m mostly prepping for my children, not for myself. I have the skills i’ll need in the end, but I struggle with the skills I need right now. This is going to be about competitive advantage. For now, that’s a high-paying job and the ability to have some capital where you can exclude others from your land, while still milking BAU.
My kids can garden, raise chickens, cut firewood, suck the eyeballs out of a dead fish, and generally get along. They also speak several languages, and are studying hard to be as versatile as possible.
When and how does it all fall apart? No idea, but obviously big changes are in store over the next century, and it aint gonna be fair to anybody.
FloridaGirl on Wed, 23rd Apr 2014 12:09 am
ghung: I am having fun. This farm is a dream come true. I enjoy taking care of the animals and watching the plants grow. I enjoy eating my home grown food and brag about it at work. I enjoy monitoring the solar panel power production and analyzing how much power things consume and controlling when things are on/off. I consider these the “good ole days” and believe we should appreciate them while we can. 🙂
simonr on Wed, 23rd Apr 2014 3:27 am
Ghung and FloridaGirl
We are the same, using 9-5 to fund prep. if not for Peak Oil, then for an impoverished retirement 🙂
And having fun doing it.
Simon
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 23rd Apr 2014 5:52 am
Florida, G, Simon, I am lucky to be paid a little from my family to manage our family farm. I have a nest egg from my earlier 1%er life and living off the proceeds. Florida there is nothing wrong with utilizing the grid now just make preparations for not having grid power, that is, unless you have issues with FF’s and their eco damage. I practice fasting twice a week to learn about reduced food intake. I am doing everything I can to get food secure or at least be able to greatly supplement my food needs. I am working towards animal power. I have solar power along with grid and biomass heating. My cabin cools well. I have good water sources with a spring on the farm. I am buying many hand tools as the budget allows. I am building a library and a collection of skill sets needed postindustrial man. Do I think this will save me, maybe and maybe not, but like G says I will have a few weeks or months to watch what I have been prepping for unfold before something gets me. If I am lucky maybe a few years to live in a postindustrial world I am somewhat prepped for. I don’t see much hope for us 20 years are so down the road when the second or third step down the curve hits with AGW effects but in the next 10 to 20 years maybe a decent life. There is so much to do yet, but like you Florida, I am having the time of my life prepping. It is my specialty and passion. Some people like world travel or such I like prepping.
TNR on Wed, 23rd Apr 2014 8:07 am
Thanks for the feedback all. We too grow food, heat with wood, and are looking into solar, but I can’t escape the feeling that it’s just to make ourselves feel better.