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The Oil Drum & Peak oil videos

The Oil Drum was a website devoted to analysis and discussion of energy and its impact on society. The Oil Drum was published by the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future, a Colorado non-profit corporation. The site was a resource for information on many energy and sustainability topics, including peak oil, and related concepts such as oil megaprojects, Hubbert linearization, and the Export Land Model. The Oil Drum had over 25 online contributors from all around the globe.

The site announced that it would stop delivering new content and turn into an archive resource as of August 31, 2013. Reasons cited for this change include server costs and a dwindling number of contributors of high-quality content.

The Oil Drum was rated one of the top five sustainability blogs of 2007 by Nielsen Netratings, and is read by a diverse collection of public figures, including Roscoe Bartlett, Paul Krugman, James…

This channel was generated automatically by YouTube’s video discovery system.



69 Comments on "The Oil Drum & Peak oil videos"

  1. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 12:12 pm 

    Price increases are associated with depletion limits, not price decreases.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling%27s_rule

    This is why I always felt Rock’s “POD” was right on target. [The failure to man up to the converse or to explain gas volume-price behavior is another issue.]

  2. Northwest Resident on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 12:39 pm 

    “It’s not geology limited.”

    Got that? No physical limits whatsoever. Oil to last forever, guys. No limits, especially not finite limits.

    Such a nice Christmas morning fantasy for our favorite forum Corny who proves time and time again that he is either living in that fantasy world of his, or he’s just pushing those fantasy arguments to generate controversy.

    And no consideration of the financial impact of such energy intensive oil extraction on the global economy — which as we see, is broken beyond repair already.

    And no consideration whatsoever for the extraction rate of the Bakken, which even in Nony’s wildest fantasies will never, ever be able to make anything but a dent in the daily oil quantity needed to keep this version of civilization limping along toward its ultimate demise.

    Merry Christmas, Nony. May 2015 bring all the fracking and environmental destruction and oily godawful mess of your fantasies to reality.

  3. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 12:40 pm 

    Man…there is so much wrong in that Econ Undertow blog it’s not even funny. You people literally don’t understand the basics in econ 101. You just blather word salad and throw out chaff.

    He confuses “peak” volume with “a glut” (i.e. a temporary supply-demand imbalance that can happen at any volume) via some sort of definitional fallacy.

    He confuses the energy content of a barrel with the value of it. Hint, hint: why does natural gas have so much lower a price on a BOE basis? Answer, you can’t make gasoline out of it. Similarly higher API crudes tend to have HIGHER prices (despite lower energy content) because you don’t need to do as much work to make high value products (less cracking, reformulating; less sulfur and metal and acid to remove).

    It’s a mess. Really.

  4. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 12:43 pm 

    NR:

    Nothing lasts forever. In time the Bakken will become geology limited (even at $100/bbl). It’s just not geology-limited NOW and AT THAT PRICE. [It is geology-limited at $55/bbl.]

  5. PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 1:19 pm 

    I’ve never said: “thats not fair…”.

    My contention is that you have to look at the costs, durations, and make a decision of what you should invest in. I bought into the concept of peak conventional oil and so far, given a year or two, the “peakers” have been right.

    I am now seeing the Bakken showing early signs of it peaking. Even at $120 or $200, the Bakken **will** peak. It is a matter of time; a relatively short time.

    The questions comes down to what do I personally want to invest in? We are reaching a point where solar and electric vehicles are starting to make sense economically. Meaning that if makes sense to “leave oil before oil leaves us”, then we should leave oil as best we can.

    While oil will be around for a long long time, using less of something expensive for something cheaper and possibly more durable is a better idea.

    Economic contraction and moving away from oil can drive the price down. Chevron has put drilling in the Arctic on an “indefinite” basis. The economic incentive is not there.

    “There’s 10 years of drilling inventory at 100+.”

    Yup, ten years where peak for each well occurs in the first month of production. Meaning that after a month, all the preceding production wells are in decline. Therefore, there will be a peak well before that 10 years is up. I’ve seen estimates from 2015 to around 2020. To me, an exact actual date does not matter. It is coming and we need to adopt to changing conditions.

    At this point, my focus is not on your “never ending oil” paradigm. CAPEX spending is going up at 11% per year while wages are going up at 2% per year is all I really need to know. My focus is keeping me and my family mobile, warm, and fed in an era of peaking oil and increasingly expensive oil production costs.

    I see nothing substantial in your arguments that has convinced me to do otherwise.

  6. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 1:20 pm 

    The buyers don’t care if the oil came from an unconventional WELL/FORMATION or a conventional one. All they care about is the quality of the oil itself.

  7. Apneaman on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 1:52 pm 

    Refineries are not all the same Nony. Different refineries/set ups for different grades of crude and crud.

  8. PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 2:39 pm 

    As a buyer, I care about availability and cost. If I see that something costs $85 to produce and the market price is set at $50, I know that it is a short term situation or the $85 producer is going to go out of business.

    If the $85 producer stays in business because future demand will be higher (the business takes some losses), then I look at future affordability and make a decision.

    If future CAPEX goes up at 11% and my wages go up at 2%, eventually the 11% line will cross the 2% line. Like a sinking ship, if the ship takes on 11 buckets of water for my bail of 2 buckets, I know the ship will eventually sink. How long should I wait?

    I’m looking at life boats. I’d rather be in a life boat well before the ship can capsize and sink.

  9. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 2:54 pm 

    PEV:

    I was responding to your “conventional” versus “nonconventional”. If they are both on the spot market and have the same chemical composition, they will get the same price. The buyer could care less about how much it cost to make one versus the other. He doesn’t “feel your pain”. All he cares about is quality and price.

    If the price is too low for a supplier than eventually that supplier will be forced to exit the market. Basic supply and demand at work. There are ALWAYS suppliers getting priced out of the market because price is too low and buyers getting priced out because it is too high.

    If the market sees future scarcity, than futures will be priced accordingly. For that matter crude is storable. So there is actually a limit to how much lower current price can be than future (arbitrage trades versus time).

    This is really, really basic stuff. If you’re confused on this, how can we even have higher level discussions about depletion?

  10. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 2:56 pm 

    Apnea: agreed.

  11. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 2:58 pm 

    PEV:

    Look. This “life boat” talk has been going around since the mid-2000s. We are a decade later and no crash.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWC6W1ctkMY

  12. Apneaman on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 3:58 pm 

    Apparently, our burning of fossil carbon has triggered mother nature to start her own fracking boom. The pictures say it all.

    http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0076-how-global-warming-could-turn-siberia-into-a-giant-crater-time-bomb/

  13. Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 4:26 pm 

    Fracking is like f***ing:

    http://www.goprographics.com/images/13297120406631465395894.jpeg

    🙂

  14. PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 7:17 pm 

    nony,

    The time to get in a life boat is after a ship starts to sink but before a ship sinks. The time to buy a Christmas Tree is early winter but before December 25th. If you plan ahead, you have time to think and do better. That is what the message was back in the mid-2000’s. That was the way I interpreted it. The youtube link you referenced was **not** the message being conveyed.

    Conventional oil production has given a number of indications that it has peaked. Can you list the countries that were once exporters of oil and are now importers? Is the list growing or shrinking?

    What future sources are available and at what production cost? When are they expected to come online? Will the new costs be higher than 11%?

    Futures prices can go down because high oil prices have killed the market. We saw it in 2008. We are seeing it again in conjunction with a lot of financial malfeasance.

  15. agramante on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 8:37 pm 

    Yeah, Rock, in 2010 I was a newbie–reasonably freshly minted from a geo/physical oceanography master’s program, innocently working in geological survey, and about to get my full-on immersion in the energy world with the Deepwater Horizon spill. Betweeen Fishgrease’s sublime profanity over at Daily Kos and then the gang at TOD, I learned a lot in a few months, primarily from you and Heading Out (who posted fairly often–I still frequent his Bit Tooth blog–and even commented from time to time.) And yes, interested newbies need to learn the basics. So of course there’s always repetition. Another reason for repetition is the endless rehearsal of the same foolish objections (“We’re not running out of oil”, “Reserves are greater now than ever before”, “In shale we trust”. I find value in this site–not that I’m a career expert like you–in finding fresh perspectives, like Westexas’ analysis, and your commentary (like on the fracking and refining worlds) which are far more insightful than reporting I find even on trustworthy news sites. In general, I’ve found message topic boards to consist of a few troublemaking trolls, a large number of sincerely interested participants, and a small number of well-respected experts. I learned a lot about submarines from some retired submariners on a CNN board around the time of the Kursk explosion–and they accurately called BS on a lot of the Russian’s initial explanations and excuses. To keep a topic fresh in my mind, and to develop my knowledge and thinking on it, I have to keep going back to it. So even repetitive fora like this serve a worthwhile purpose.

  16. chilphil1986 on Fri, 26th Dec 2014 11:18 am 

    As one of Rockman’s aforementioned lurkers, I do visit this site regularly to parse through the repetition and find the insightful contributions made (of which there are plenty). I contribute little because
    1) I cannot claim a professional background in any aspect of the FF industry except in the consumption of its end products and
    2) I have very little patience for ignorance and choose not to bait it.
    I choose to spend most of my time digging through history books to find the methods by which our predecessors (nineteenth century and earlier) went about their daily lives since I believe that oil is the cornerstone upon which my life was built and continues to operate though how much longer is now doubtful. Having so feeble grasp of a context, I feel this is the best use of time at the present. In the event of a sudden shock in the markets, I cannot hope to survive it. I merely position as best as possible and hope the coming decline is gradual enough to adapt.

  17. MSN Fanboy on Fri, 26th Dec 2014 4:37 pm 

    LOL NONY V Doomed….Fight LOL

    Nony is correct previous predications centred on dates was WRONG.

    He is also correct to point out the remarkable feat which has been shale drilling.

    Aside from these facts, where is the argument?

    POD never changed, it will just arrive fashionably late to ensure a fast collapse circa 2040

    Those who predict the next five years (like those who predicted the last five years) will be wrong. Just read limits to growth (updated version)… 2035-2045.

    Enjoy this evermore corrupt civilisation of bau while it lasts. Don’t worry about bailing now lol, collapse will come. The second dark age.

    The candle that burns twice as bright lasts only half as long.

    Our candle has burned 10x brighter, savour it.

  18. GregT on Fri, 26th Dec 2014 5:38 pm 

    Nony siad:

    “Gregt: Perfect example to show that peakers are more about hating FF usage itself than about some sort of better analysis of reserves.”

    I haven’t met a peaker yet Nony, that is looking forward to what is coming for humanity. The only thing worse than running out of oil, is not running out of oil soon enough. Either way, the results are going to be devastating. Running out means a massive population reduction, not running out means extinction. One or the other, that is our predicament.

  19. Apneaman on Fri, 26th Dec 2014 6:48 pm 

    It seems extinction is all but assured. Defiling the planet and each other will carry on to the bitter end.

    Worldwide Coal Production Continues to Grow

    There is no war on coal–neither the International Energy Agency (IEA) nor the Obama administration plan to reduce coal production, despite commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, says analyst Jeff Biggers – December 26, 2014

    http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=12909

    http://survivalacres.com/blog/the-human-condition/

    http://survivalacres.com/blog/the-human-condition-part-ii/

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