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The End of Peak Oil

The End of Peak Oil thumbnail

U.S. production of crude oil is now about ten million barrels per day, matching peak levels achieved in 1970.  The Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. oil production this year will be the highest ever recorded.  Let’s hope this is the final stake in the heart of peak oil theories.

As a young geology student in 1981, I was taught that oil production in the U.S. would follow a bell-shaped curve.  It had already peaked in 1970 and was on a course of inevitable decline.  The apparent logic was inexorable.  Over the eons, geologic processes had generated a finite amount of irreplaceable petroleum liquids in the Earth’s crust.  Once these were gone, they were gone forever.  The necessary corollary was that we had to reshape our entire industrialized civilization by switching to renewable sources of energy.  The longer we delayed, the greater the shock of declining energy supplies would be when it finally arrived.

Peak oil theory was invented in the year 1956 by the American geologist M. King Hubbert.  Hubbert predicted that oil production in the U.S. would peak sometime between 1965 and 1970.  Hubbert’s model was apparently validated in the early 1970s, when production began to decline.  The theory became gospel for a generation of geologists.  When oil prices collapsed to near $10 a barrel in late 1998, it gave some of us pause.  But by the summer of 2008, oil prices in the neighborhood of $150 a barrel seemed to validate Hubbert’s predictions of scarcity.  In 2010, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman proclaimed that “peak oil has arrived.”

What happened?  The theory of peak oil was flawed from the beginning.  While it’s true that the amount of oil in the Earth’s crust is fixed, it’s difficult to accurately estimate the fraction of that oil that can be economically extracted.  Production depends on technology, and it’s impossible to reliably predict future technologies.  In the past ten years, engineers have perfected techniques of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.  These technologies allow us to produce petroleum directly from shales, the most common rock in the sedimentary column.  Vast resources once thought to be unreachable have become economically viable.  Thirty years ago, any claim to produce oil directly from shale would have been regarded as laughable.

In 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that “the world’s supply of recoverable petroleum” was no more than 60 billion barrels.  It was wrong.  The world has already produced 1,400 billion barrels of oil.  Worldwide, there is about 1,700 billion barrels of oil in reserve – nearly a 60-year supply at current production rates.  And the size of the ultimate resource is likely to be greater than 10 trillion barrels.

Peak oil predictions and other Malthusian prognostications of resource limits have failed repeatedly for decades.  But the people who invoke these false auguries of doom and gloom never seem to suffer any consequences.  Any discussion of energy resources is tainted by ideology.  Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are portrayed as morally superior.  Tendentious promotions of renewables invariably gloss over their inherent limitations.  Wind and solar are intermittent and expensive.  Both suffer from low power densities.  These flaws are not political or even technological.  They originate in the laws of physics and chemistry and are not likely to be overcome at any time in the foreseeable future.

Oil and other fossil fuels will continue to be our primary energy sources through the end of this century because they offer four great advantages.  Compared to renewables, fossil fuels are inexpensive, reliable, abundant, and concentrated.  The age of oil is far from being eclipsed.  We have barely begun to exploit unconventional oil resources.  The western U.S. alone contains at least 2 trillion barrels of petroleum in oil shale formations.  At a current U.S. annual consumption rate of 7.2 billion barrels, that’s a 278-year supply.

Ultimately, the world will switch to nuclear power because that’s where the energy is.  But there’s no reason grounded in science for that transition to take place in the lifetime of anyone reading this article.  Political attempts to control energy markets for ideological reasons can only result in increasing energy prices and reduced human prosperity.

David Deming is a geologist, professor of arts and sciences at the University of Oklahoma, and author of the series Science and Technology in World History.

American Thinker



41 Comments on "The End of Peak Oil"

  1. Sissyfuss on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 9:38 am 

    We may have a 278 year supply of petroleum (unlikely) but we only have a 10 to 20 years supply of stable weather patterns.

  2. rockman on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 9:55 am 

    FYI: Dr. Deming has not worked one day exploring for or producing petroleum. And from wiki: “Deming has identified himself with the Cornucopian school of environmental thought…”. Apparently, whoever taught him about PO did a bad job or he wasn’t paying attention in class that day. LOL. For instance, the title: “The End of Peak Oil”. This seems to imply that PO is some sort of continuous process which, of course, it isn’t. Or he’s saying PO will never occur and the planet has an unending supply of oil. Which might get him an A at the Cornucopian School but would get him laughed out of a room full of real petroleum geologists.

    BTW he also has an interesting view on climate change. Again from wiki: “Deming has criticized global warming predictions, citing “media hysteria . . . generated by journalists who don’t understand the provisional and uncertain nature of scientific knowledge…In a 1995 paper published in the academic journal Science, Deming reviewed published analyses of borehole temperature data in North America and concluded “the magnitude of the observed warning . . . is still within the range of estimated natural variability . . . a cause and effect relationship between anthropogenic activities and climatic warming cannot be demonstrated unambiguously at the present time.” Bore hole temperatures??? Obvious a non-petroleum geologist that doesn’t have a clue about heat flow dynamics in the earth.

  3. dave thompson on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 9:59 am 

    Yes the US is producing lots of fracking FF. The rest of the producing countries are mostly in decline. This web site “American Thinker” looks to be mostly about BS.

  4. BobInget on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 12:03 pm 

    Whack-a-Mole is a game for small children not
    serious investors.

  5. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 12:16 pm 

    We have discovered less oil than we consume for the last 34 years. So oil must peak very soon. How anyone could come to the conclusion peak oil has been solved is simply baffling.

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  6. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 12:18 pm 

    The american Thinker….LOL another right winger site. Its always the right that denies science. Whether its peak oil, climate change, evolution, etc.etc.

  7. diemos on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 12:28 pm 

    “it’s difficult to accurately estimate the fraction of that oil that can be economically extracted.”

    I can say with complete certainty that it is somewhere between 0% and 100%. It’s never going to be infinity%.

  8. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 2:34 pm 

    “A decade ago, the environmental philosopher Timothy Morton invented a new word: hyperobject. It describes something so “massively distributed in time and space relative to humans” that it eludes our understanding. The best example of a hyperobject is climate change. Its scale confounds our perception. It is everywhere—“viscous,” as Morton has it — and yet it is hard to see directly. Its implications are so great that they verge on unthinkable.”‘
    We can’t think about them—-

  9. Anonymous on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 2:40 pm 

    There is a reason why TOD shut down. Why Hamilton and Staniford stopped talking about oil. They were dramatically wrong. They had a bias and let it affect their analysis. And now that things turned out different, they have lost interest in following oil and gas production (despite it still being an interesting, evolving story). The fundamental issues were not just misguessing a stochastic factor but a poor understanding of supply factors (US potential, role of technology, role of OPEC).

  10. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 2:52 pm 

    Anonymous

    The oil drum was just a stupid blog. It doesn’t mean jack shit. we have discovered less oil than we have consumed for 34 years. Last year we discovered the least amount of oil ever, while using the most oil ever. Therefore oil must peak soon. The IEA and Saudi are already warning about oil shortages in a few years. Collin Campbell predicted peak oil around 2010 and it looks like he missed it by about a decade. It happens. And you should be glad he did because if he would have nailed it you would be dead by now.
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  11. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 2:54 pm 

    Anonymous

    As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.

    Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle
    https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php

    All-Time Low For Discovered Resources in 2017: Around 7 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/all-time-low-discovered-resources-2017/

    Global crude oil discoveries plunge to record low, and it’s gonna get worse
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/global-crude-oil-discoveries-plunge-to-record-low-and-its-gonna-get-worse.html

    Warning of oil shortages as discoveries fall to record low
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/warning-of-oil-shortages-as-global-discoveries-hit-record-low-nmv3x6l03

    Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790

    Saudi Aramco chief warns of looming oil shortage
    https://www.ft.com/content/ed1e8102-212f-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c

    An oil crisis may be brewing — and it’s not because of decreasing demand
    http://www.businessinsider.com/an-oil-crisis-may-be-brewing-and-not-because-of-decreasing-demand-2018-4

  12. Cloggie on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 3:37 pm 

    “The oil drum was just a stupid blog. It doesn’t mean jack shit.“

    It was absolutely NOT a stupid blog, but a forum of dedicated professional bean counters. And at some point they came to the correct conclusion that peak oil supply would not happen in 2015 as ASPO and Heinberg c.s. had claimed (while overlooking the Third Carbon Age potential) but perhaps in 2030 or even (much) later.

    They could not wait that long and called it a day.

  13. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 3:46 pm 

    clog

    From error to error we discover the entire truth. -Freud

    Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle
    https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php

    All-Time Low For Discovered Resources in 2017: Around 7 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/all-time-low-discovered-resources-2017/

    Global crude oil discoveries plunge to record low, and it’s gonna get worse
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/global-crude-oil-discoveries-plunge-to-record-low-and-its-gonna-get-worse.html

    Warning of oil shortages as discoveries fall to record low
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/warning-of-oil-shortages-as-global-discoveries-hit-record-low-nmv3x6l03

    Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790

    Saudi Aramco chief warns of looming oil shortage
    https://www.ft.com/content/ed1e8102-212f-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c

    An oil crisis may be brewing — and it’s not because of decreasing demand
    http://www.businessinsider.com/an-oil-crisis-may-be-brewing-and-not-because-of-decreasing-demand-2018-4

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  14. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 3:48 pm 

    Clogg

    From error to error we discover the entire truth.

    An oil crisis may be brewing — and it’s not because of decreasing demand
    http://www.businessinsider.com/an-oil-crisis-may-be-brewing-and-not-because-of-decreasing-demand-2018-4

    Did you see all the sources I posed above? are you mentally retarded or something?

  15. DMyers on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 5:24 pm 

    Once again, we sense the stretch to grasp at any small evidence that we are still the great species we always were. The foolish doomsters are ever humbled and silenced by the wonders of science and technology. There’s no need to contemplate negative possibilities, which really amount to disinformation. There is still a hell of a lot of oil. Our access to it is assured. Follow the line of progress. It’s always going up and forward.

    I found the following statement from the article to be most intriguing: “But the people who invoke these false auguries of doom and gloom never seem to suffer any consequences.” Anyone would be a fool to argue that point. It’s clear that there should be, but are, no proper consequences meted out to these false prophets of doom.

    Therefore, I am proposing a just and deserving consequence for those referenced, and we all know who they are. They should be rounded up, taken into custody, and be forced to reside in an artificially created environment made to have every characteristic of the doomster prognoses (“Malthusian Paradise”). At the same time, they should be forced to witness the outside world, still and forever enjoying an abundance of water, food, oil and electricity.

    “These technologies allow us to produce petroleum directly from shales, the most common rock in the sedimentary column.” (Quoting from the article). Staying with the line of progress, this clearly signals a time when it will be common to own a personal fracker with horizontal capabilities, along with a personal refinery. Shale is everywhere. It’s in your back yard. You can personally perform the fracking miracle at home and cook up combustible with the product, all in the space of a one car garage.

    We read, “[R]enewable energy sources such as wind and solar are portrayed as morally superior.” That is so true and so repugnant. God gave us oil and fracking, while man has created wind and solar renewable energy converters. Can man be morally superior to God? Impossible by definition. The morally superior attitude of renewable energy advocates is unwarranted and a mere expression of their egotism and neurosis. That said, we should not be seeing it anymore around here.

  16. Glenn Morton on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 5:52 pm 

    I was a exploration geophysicist for 45+ years before I retired in this downturn. The math of peak oil is inescapable. Unless you believe that there is an infinite volume of oil in the center of the finite volume earth, peak oil simply has to happen. We can argue about when it will happen, but an infinite volume is not contained in the finite volume of the earth. To paraphrase Dennimg, I hope this puts to end the idea that peak oil is nonsense. It is a mathematical certitude.

  17. energy investor on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 7:04 pm 

    I agree entirely with you Glenn. Frankly I cannot understand how the author of this article can call himself a scientist or a professor. It lacks any form of sophistication.

    I don’t necessarily agree with Sissyfuss because I am not convinced our climate will be as “stable” as it has been. Will the solar scientists be right about the approaching Grand Solar Minimum of SC24, SC25 and SC26? And if so are we due for something like the Mini Ice Age?

    Let’s just wait and see. We only have a few years to wait.

  18. energy investor on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 7:21 pm 

    People who criticise Malthus are usually not strong on their history.

    The Malthus essays were about over-population relative to food supplies and the ability of of governments to ship people to the colonies allowed them to refute his theories in the short term, and then in the medium term the availability of fossil fuels, the technology to use them, and the agrarian revolutions enabled the increased population to be fed.

    When Malthus wrote his essays, the global population was less than 1 billion. Today it is 7.46 billion. The world didn’t get any bigger but we humans have adapted. That doesn’t make Malthus’ predictions wrong as hundreds of thousands starved in Europe during the succeeding 20 years after his essays. Just ask 1 million Irish?

    As for the 2 trillion bbls of oil shales…this just makes me think the author techno-delusional if he thinks they can be brought into play anytime soon.

  19. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 7:35 pm 

    Glenn

    Well put and thanks for your comments. People deny peak oil because it scares the living shit out of them. People are not as dumb as we like to joke about. They are smart enough to realize if we start to run out of oil our whole world will come crashing down. And that is just a bridge to far for the average person to handle. i have no idea what will happen when the oil shortages hit. I fear many people will lose their minds and go totally insane. All I know is that a smooth regression is hard to imagine.

  20. onlooker on Sat, 14th Apr 2018 8:46 pm 

    Do people like the author of this article even thing through their assertions? Even if it were true what he is saying about PO, that would only serve to extend and aggravate the multitude of ways we are overexploiting the Earth and in the process undermining its functionality. And it would allow our population to increase even further making our overshoot of carrying capacity of this planet ever more grievous and untenable. Gosh, the optimists are fast losing any basis in reality.

  21. kanon on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 9:53 am 

    onlooker: “Do people like the author of this article even thing through their assertions?”

    Ans: Not really. They are special interest partisans who are rooting for their “tribe.” The article ends with “Political attempts to control energy markets for ideological reasons can only result in increasing energy prices and reduced human prosperity.” This is ironic because the fossil fuel industry is among the most politically active special interests and is very dependent on politics for its position. The Koch Bros. et al are the epitome of ideologues. It seems to me that the lack of discoveries coupled with ongoing depletion is the foretelling of peak oil. The article refers to “shale oil” as a huge resource, but I think shale oil (not oil shale) is a bit like corn ethanol in terms of EROEI.

  22. peakyeast on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 10:17 am 

    There are lots of indicators showing how humanity progresses from good resources to worse to bad to none.

    A couple of 100 years ago we had so many salmon around copenhagen that a royal decree said that workers could not be paid in salmon because it was worthless.

    Today all salmon are produced in aquacultures at great expense and it is almost unpayable by the average citizen.

    Also we used to eat certain species of fishes, but now we have progressed to eating species of fish we wouldnt have touched unless we had exhausted the normal stocks of fish.

    The same is happening in the oil sector we used to have plenty of high quality oil that almost put itself into the barrel. Now we are including everything – in a few years we will probably be desperate enough include asphalted roads as newly a explored “BOe” resource waiting to be exploited.

  23. rockman on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 10:31 am 

    I never get why some folks piss on The Oil Drum. I posted hundreds of messages there for years. From a practical standpoint I see on difference from TOD then this website. Similar extreme viewpoints from both sides of the fence. Similar trolls and stubbornness. Similar polite and critical thinkers on both sides of the fence. And yes: many on TOD posted ridiculous models and predictions…just like we see here. LOL.

    As far as I could tell the reason TOD shutdown was due to the editors quitting. I saw no one forcing it to shut down nor any lack of interest by members to carry on.

    Hey, but what the hell do I know: I most likely spent more time on TOD then anyone here. LOL.

  24. Dredd on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 11:12 am 

    For those who do not know, Dredd Blog was mentioned in a Book “The Peak Oil Scare and The Coming Oil Flood” to wit:

    Dredd Blog’s long-time characterization of the exercise of power in Western Civilization with the Dredd Blog caricature of ‘MOMCOM’ (Military Oil Media Complex). Why we gave up the old notion of ‘MIC’ (Military Industrial Complex), as explained in the Dredd Blog post ‘MOMCOM: Mean Welfare Queen,’ is because it is so yesterday, it is so 1950’s reality.

    Yes, I responded: Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder- 6

  25. Boat on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 11:33 am 

    Yeast

    Just because the ETP was a complete failure doesn’t mean you should continue your attack on certain types of oil with a label.
    Over 5 mbpd of the liquids you complain about are consumed every day in the US at a much cheaper price than much of the world. Miles driven is also climbing. Repeating flawed shortonoil logic in the face reality is not only weird but stupid.

  26. peakyeast on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 12:35 pm 

    @Boat: I know you only remember the parts you want. I ALWAYS qualified that the ETP model as far as termodynamics is valid, but I dont subscribe to the timeline nor necessarily the inputted values. But it is OBVIOUS that once the energy going into extracting oil exceeds the energy coming out then its no longer powering society.

    The way you remember and present MY opinion is not only weird but really stupid.

  27. peakyeast on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 12:42 pm 

    @Boat: You also seem to have a problem with addressing other people in a reasonable way. I can understand why many other people here write to you like you are retarded. I normally don’t do that, but it is possible for you to convince me otherwise – since this is not the first time you write (g)utter garbage to me.

  28. MASTERMIND on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 12:49 pm 

    Rockman

    The reason the deniers make a big deal about the Oil drum closing is because they have no evidence of any major new oil discoveries to disprove peak oil. That is all peak oil really is. Lack of discovery. And actually new discoveries were at their lowest level in history last year. So the case for peak oil is stronger than its ever been in the past. The deniers are grasping at straws because for the last 34 years in a row the world has used more oil than it has discovered. 34 years of evidence and people still deny peak oil. Its truly amazing.
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  29. Jeff on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 3:10 pm 

    The article’s title in itself is absolute
    nonsense, it’s like pretending that Earth is flat or that perpetual motion is possible.
    What puzzles me is that the author pretends to be a “scientific”. I suspect that he probably had to accomplish sexual or money counterparts to his “academic degrees”, or perhabs is victim of Alzheimer disease as he says he’s old. Regards, take care.

  30. Boat on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 3:48 pm 

    Mm

    So when will oil peak. You got a specific year? With all those kids at schools doing studies you would think there would be a consensus.

  31. MASTERMIND on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 3:58 pm 

    Boat

    Between now and 2020. That is per numerous scientific studies and the IEA and Saudi’s. The worlds top two energy experts. If you are waiting for some major press conference to announce it I wouldn’t hold your breathe. Since Wall street will have a heart attack when they find out. You will know oil has peaked when you wake up in the near future and hear that the gas stations are running out of fuel. And there are two hour lines to get gasoline. And there are people fighting and killing one another at the gas pumps!
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

    This world will burn!

  32. Boat on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 4:01 pm 

    Mm

    Who has argued there may not be a shortage in the future. What I have argued is prices will likely rise to the point that rig counts will rise again and produce yet another peak down the road. Just another cycle.

  33. Boat on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 4:06 pm 

    Mm

    Lol… The world will burn by 2020 due to depletion. Is that correct? I want to get it right. I may build you an oil can burned momument if correct.

  34. MASTERMIND on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 4:09 pm 

    Boat

    You can’t produce another peak if you don’t have the discoveries to produce another peak.
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  35. Newfie on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 7:58 pm 

    American Thinker = American Dreamer

  36. Anonymous on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 10:10 pm 

    A. I don’t usually bother with MM but what the heck.

    1. Peak oil is the highest rate of production, not of discoveries. This is definitional and agreed to by peakers.

    2. It is common for more oil to be produced in fields than was estimated on the initial discovery. Hubbert learned this himself and even estimated 3X growth over time in discovery amount. You can’t say when discoveries peaked because the new oil in the old field is allocated BACK to the time of the initial discovery. For instance, the Bakken would be allocated back to 1951!

    B. Regarding TOD, the editors got tired of being wrong (amazing amount of old bad predictions in TOD). The site had no interest in general, unbiased reporting on oil production and reserves. Once the facts started making the 2005-2010 peaker vision look bad they shut down. This shows bias as there was still an interesting story to cover. Just not one that fit their bias. And they were not the type to adjust views based on new data.

  37. MASTERMIND on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 10:30 pm 

    Annoymouse

    As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.

    Here are 32 mainstream articles warning about peak oil right now. And over a dozen peer reviewed scientific papers published.
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

    All your claims are lies that is why you didn’t cite any sources. Just another blathering blowhard who can’t handle the facts and science.

  38. MASTERMIND on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 10:36 pm 

    Annoumouse

    Peak oil is not a myth -The Royal Society of Chemistry

    Current data for the decline in oil fields’ production indicates that around 3 million barrels per day of new production must be achieved year on year, simply to sustain supply levels. This is equivalent to finding another Saudi Arabia every 3–4 years. In this context, fracking is at best a stop-gap measure. Conventional oil production is predicted to drop by over 50% in the next two decades and tight oil is unlikely to replace more than 6%.

    Once conventional oil’s rate of loss exceeds unconventional oil’s rate of production, world production must peak. Production of sweet, light crude actually peaked in 2005 but this has been masked by the increase in unconventional oil production, and also by lumping together different kinds of material with oil and referring to the collective as ‘liquids’. (More recently, the term ‘liquids’ is often upgraded to ‘oil’, which is highly disinformative since the properties of the other liquids are quite different from crude oil.)
    https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/peak-oil-is-not-a-myth/7102.article

  39. Boat on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 11:05 pm 

    Mm

    Yeabut there are various reports by the experts who specialize in energy that show 1.5 – 1.7 trillion in proved reserves. This number will go up as the price of oil has risen. These numbers don’t include the couple of trillion of shale oil potential down the road tech may open up.

  40. MASTERMIND on Sun, 15th Apr 2018 11:37 pm 

    Boat

    BP 1.7 Trillion barrels proven oil reserves NOT so proven
    http://crudeoilpeak.info/oil-reserves-and-resources-as-function-of-oil-price

    Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

    So yeah…

  41. Dredd on Mon, 16th Apr 2018 4:36 am 

    I like MASTERMIND’s link to the Peak Oil Is Not A Myth post @ Chemistry World.

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