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Page added on March 3, 2012
Ruppert Forecasting a collapse
For a prophet of doom, Michael Ruppert looked remarkably cheery last week surveying the vegetable plots and chicken coop in his large sloping backyard in the Graton hills.
Nearly a year after moving to Sonoma County, the Southern California transplant says he’s so delighted by his new environs he has to pinch himself.
But even in the sunny glow of a warm February afternoon, Ruppert’s mind is never far from the catastrophe he sees looming.
“A tsunami is coming,” he said. “Those of us who built on high ground hope we built high enough.”
Ruppert, an author and former L.A. police officer, is a prominent “peak oil” advocate who takes familiar notions of finite fossil fuels and gives them a sinister urgency.
Not only did world petroleum production max out about six years ago, he said, it’s now on an irreversible decline for which no amount of “clean coal,” atomic energy, alternative fuels or new fields can compensate.
“In order to order to offset the decline, we would have to find three or four new Saudi Arabias,” he said, cigarette in hand. “There is nothing that will offset the decline.”
Ruppert is hardly Sonoma County’s only peak oil theorist. The county is home to several chapters of Transition US, a group focused on preparing for the consequences of peak production, as well as to the Post Carbon Institute, a leading think tank in the field.
But Ruppert is unusually bleak in his predictions. He’s not worried about $4 a gallon gasoline. He’s worried about a societal collapse so imminent he sees little point in paying off debts.
“I would be making minimum monthly payments on credit cards now because the whole system is coming down in pretty short order,” he offers.
That may sound like the ravings of a crank, as some believe he is. But Ruppert makes for a persuasive messenger.
His projections formed the heart of the critically lauded 2009 documentary “Collapse,” in which he is sole star and commentator.
“I don’t know when I’ve seen a thriller more frightening,” Roger Ebert wrote in his review. “I couldn’t tear my eyes from the screen.”
Even when you doubt his conclusions, Ruppert’s arguments poke discomfittingly at your beliefs.
Hybrids, to take a commonly supposed savior for declining oil, are no cure, he said. Each tire takes approximately 7 gallons of oil, not to mention the endless gallons of oil in the plastic, paints, lubricants, foams and other ingredients of a modern car, which is largely designed to travel on oil-based roads.
And it’s not just vehicles that depend on oil, he says. So does the world’s population and economy, which have exploded since humans harnessed petroleum.
The world’s food supply is fed by petro-fertilizers, protected by petro-pesticides and harvested and trucked by petro-engines, he says.
With declining oil, food production can’t sustain nor can populations or economies, he says. The debt straddling countries like Greece and Japan can only be repaid through economic growth requiring energy in amounts no longer available to them, he said.
“It is not physically possible to pay all the debt that is out there,” he said.
His grim outlook helps explains his arrival in the west county, where he has a well for water and lives near farmers and ranchers who grow and raise their own food.
Ruppert’s own beds of kale, broccoli, onions and other vegetable are no hobby, they’re preparation.
“This is my lifeboat,” he said.
The west county’s people and culture fit him like a glove, he said. But even among groups concerned with similar matters, his focus on imminent collapse sets him apart from others striving to manage decline from peak production.
“Michael has proved to be very prescient, and he’s a friend and peer of the Post Carbon Institute,” said Tod Brilliant, spokesman for the Santa Rosa-based group.
“At the same time we feel there’s still work that can be done, and we’re optimistic we can help create appropriate responses that will lead to a resilient future,” Brilliant added.
But Ruppert says he knows he’s far from alone. In a world of spiking gas prices, global unrest and sputtering economies, people no longer think he’s crazy.
“People aren’t calling me a lunatic any more,” he said. “People get it. I am no longer a voice crying in the wilderness.”
By SAM SCOTT
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
12 Comments on "Ruppert Forecasting a collapse"
Rusty Baker on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 8:55 pm
Peak Oil “prophets” such as Michael C. Ruppert have been harping on about “economic collapse” and “peak oil” for years, and nothing has happened. I don’t know why you people lend any credence to this dismal, demented fool and put him on a pedestal. There are articles online stating that Mike “doomer” Ruppert sexually harassed one of his workers, and a video where he predicted the US economy would collapse no later than July of last year. In addition, this raving, delusional lunatic believes that the September 11th attacks were a conspiracy deliberately carried out by the US government. What a delusional paranoid nutcase he is, just like other peak oil theorists.
Bow down before your god, peak oil theorists. Worship the all-knowing Ruppert and his divine prophecies. The peak oil Messiah has come to spread his message of doom and gloom. He is come to save the earth and the human race. May his words be enshrined and consecrated for all to see; let us pray in thy holy name of Mike Ruppert.
This would-be prophet is no better than Preacher Harold Camping predicting the Rapture would happen last year in May. Haha. This guy is laughable with all his nonsense-just like peak oil theory; I can’t believe peak oil theorists take this guy seriously. I pity you all.
rebecca on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 9:51 pm
Hey Rusty, What are you doing trolling this site? It’s obviously not for you. Michael never said “Believe evey word I say.”
He says “Go out and learn for yourself.” The people who believe he is right about his predictions do so because they have researched peak oil and it’s possible effects and see it as a likely outcome.
If you think he’s full of shit then explain exactly why, site your sources and data for why you disagee and maybe, just maybe people will look into it more. But just disageeing with him because you don’t want to think he could be right is not a good approach.
Seriously, why don’t you hang out at the Bill O’reilly page. You’d feel much mroe at home, surrounded by like minded people.
tubaplayer on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 9:56 pm
Rusty == troll
Go way and stop interrupting my quiet enjoyment and serious contemplation of what others have to offer here.
Go way. You are a troll!!
jaime on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 10:21 pm
Rusty you are a dumb ass.
Mike on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 10:33 pm
Bill O’Reilly, Rebecca? Is that a jab at ignorant conservatives? You know, there are quite a few of us “on board.” 😉
I think most would agree that Mike is often over-the-top in the urgency of his predictions and that few take seriously the timing.
But both intuitively and rationally, his general message on the fragility of the system and the inevitability of a break point finds many in agreement. The grand “system” can endure only so much of gradual decay before some critical component breaks and triggers a cascade of failures or retrenchments.
The desperation of people and the TPTB is palpable in central bank gimmickry (printing), in exotic and difficult low grade oil, in social services we cannot afford but cannot abandon, in the utter absence of selflessness in our “leaders,” in the sabre-rattling over resources, in rising food prices and falling employment, in currency wars, in debt that cannot be repaid, …
Mike is generally correct in his expectations; it’s the timing that will surprise (and yet not surprise) us all.
MrEnergyCzar on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 10:53 pm
He called the mortgage credit crises back in 2006…
MrEnergyCzar
Mikeb on Sat, 3rd Mar 2012 11:30 pm
Rusty is right.
I’ve been following peak oil for years, and the movement is an absolute travesty, with Ruppert at the top of the list of Seriously Deluded.
The promised catastrophic effects of peak oil have not materialized.
While peak oil is an issue, it is nowhere near as serious as something like global warming.
Peak oil went from being science to being a cult a long time ago.
BillT on Sun, 4th Mar 2012 12:42 am
Mikeb…you should move in with Rusty. Both of you are so deep into denial that there is no reaching you.
Global warming is a long way off for the really drastic events. But the collapse because oil production peaked is happening now. Do you think the printing presses over heating in the basements of all of the world’s Central Banks is because of global warming? Nope! It is because they are trying to prevent the collapse of a system that relies on cheap, plentiful energy to create constant growth. The world economy is going to crash because the energy that built it is gone and the debts are unpayable. Think for yourself and quit taking 20 second sound bites for your education. Think…don’t ‘feel’.
rangerone314 on Sun, 4th Mar 2012 1:25 am
I wonder how many people who lived in Rome predicted the fall of Rome and were ridiculed when it didn’t happen on a particular year. Then Rome fell.
The system we have bet our lives on is on an unstable foundation and it will collapse.
Anvil on Sun, 4th Mar 2012 1:56 am
Were do all these idiot come crawling out from.
Is there some sort of banishment spell to put them back in brain dead MSM whence they came.
rebecca on Sun, 4th Mar 2012 2:01 am
@Mike, I was refering to Bill O’reilly’s recent pieces on how the US ia “awash in oil”, and how misinformed he is. He doesn’t care about the truth as much as the controversy.
Here is a link to The Oil Drum’s rebuttal of his inaccurate assesment of the US oil situation.
Btw, I consider myself an independent when it comes to politics and a proud Ron Paul supporter. Oh, and I like Judge Nepalitano. Maybe I’m a conservative independent?
I will agree that Mike Rupert is a little over the top in his predictions, but his basic message and understanding of where we’re headed seems pretty spot on.
rebecca on Sun, 4th Mar 2012 2:02 am
Here’s the link to the article I was refering to.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8981