Page added on April 22, 2013
By Robert L. Hirsch PhD, Senior Energy Advisor, MISI
I was fortunate to be among the few westerners invited to attend and speak at this first-of-its kind “peak oil” (PO) conference in a Middle East. The fact that a major Middle East oil exporter would hold such a conference on what has long been a verboten subject was quite remarkable and a dramatic change from decades of PO denial. The two and a half day meeting was well attended by people from the GCC as well as other regional countries.
The going-in assumption was that “peak oil” will occur in the near future. The timing of the impending onset of world oil decline was not an issue at the conference, rather the main focus was what the GCC countries should do soon to ensure a prosperous, long-term future. To many of us who have long suffered the vociferous denial of PO by GCC-OPEC countries, this conference represented a major change. In the words of Kjell Aleklett, who summarized highlights of the conference, the meeting was “an historic event.”
While many PO aficionados have been focused on the impacts and the mitigation of “peak oil” in the importing countries, most attendees at this conference were concerned with the impact that finite oil and gas reserves will have on the long-term future of their own exporting countries. They see the depletion of their large-but-limited reserves as affording their countries a period of time in which they either develop their countries into sustainable entities able to continue into the long term future or they lapse back into the poor, nomadic circumstances that existed prior to the discovery of oil/gas. Accordingly, much of the conference focus was on how the GCC countries might use their current and near-term largesse to build sustainable economic and government futures.
A flavor of the conference can be gotten from the following loosely translated, random quotations:
In closing, I want to express my appreciation to our Qatari hosts. They were hospitable, warm, friendly, and showed the kind of quiet determination important to making their country a better place. Doha is a remarkably beautiful city. Finally, from what I could see, the Emir is taking very positive, aggressive steps to build a vigorous enlightened future for his country.
Robert L. Hirsch is a former senior energy program adviser for Science Applications International Corporation and is a Senior Energy Advisor at MISI and a consultant in energy, technology, and management. Hirsch has served on numerous advisory committees related to energy development, and he is the principal author of the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, which was written for the United States Department of Energy.
3 Comments on "Reflections on the Conference on “Peak Oil: Challenges and Opportunities for the GCC Countries”"
Plantagenet on Mon, 22nd Apr 2013 4:57 pm
The claim that ME oil exporting countries have done nothing to prepare for peak oil is wrong. KSA and most other countries have created HUGE sovereign wealth funds with some of the oil money in hope that these investment accounts will continue to generate income as the oil revenue decreases.
Of course, if the whole global economy collapses when oil runs out, their funds won’t do them a whole lot of good.
BillT on Tue, 23rd Apr 2013 3:55 am
“My father rode a camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a plane.
His son will ride a camel.”
I think that sums up the future of the Middle East.
Arthur75 on Tue, 23rd Apr 2013 10:07 am
“To many of us who have long suffered the vociferous denial of PO by GCC-OPEC countries, this conference represented a major change. ”
Seems to me that once 50 or 70 percent of Americans are aware that US production peak occured in 1970, that a similar percentage is aware that the first oil shock was a direct consequence of US peak much more than the so called “embargo”, that further to the Saudis American “friendship” pact there was NEVER any Embargo from Saudi Arabia towards the US, see for instance James Akins interviews in below :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fQJ-0jAr3LQ
So that once this is the case, words like “vociferous denial” as used above will make a bit of sense.