Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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Page added on May 1, 2012
A wide variety of blogposts roll across my Google Reader on a daily basis. There have been some great articles on Environmentalism lately, most notably one by Paul Kingsnorth in Orion magazine. The goal here is to add to that discussion by exposing the assumptions that underlie our beliefs about growth and to locate various groups on a continuum of growth beliefs.
Understanding the nature of our energy basis is critical to understanding where we are headed as a civilization. Unless people have received unusual education to break their conditioning to expect and desire growth, most people are so schooled and immersed in the growth story that they do not realize that there may be other possible futures, especially in the US where growth has been so consistent and rapid. In this period of global resource transition, peoples’ beliefs are separating into a growth continuum of three general belief systems or world views that inform our lives and trace a trajectory for our future. I have attempted to categorize some prominent growth-related groups below as examples of each category—with the qualifications that these categorizations are my opinion, and that a person in one group may host a range of beliefs, often contradictory! Some of the categorizations are self evident, with the group’s name as a description of where the group stands on the issue of growth. Other groups such as the Resilience Alliance are more obscure in their stance; perhaps so that they can provide a larger umbrella as a scientific group.
Nuclear Energy Institute Infographic–Nuclear Optimism regarding clean green energy?
by making some Green changes in how we live by leveraging renewable energy using technology. The fundamental energetic premise here is that alternative fuel sources such as nuclear, wind and solar can replace fossil fuels. Another perspective of those in this category is a view of the pulsing cycle from a smaller scale of time that suggests that systems can be frozen at the climax phase of pulsing. Many in this group believe that there is room for both social justice and environmental justice. Steady Staters, Zero growth advocates, environmentalists, sustainability enthusiasts, and single-issue advocates such as climate change proponents reside here. The Resilience Alliance, with its emphasis on “retaining the same controls and function” in reaction to systemic change, is probably primarily in this category?
Pulsing Succession (Odum, 2007, p. 56) http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-12886-5/environment-power-and-society-for-the-twentyfirst-century
Where do you fit on the continuum above, and why do you hold these beliefs? The world views that we hold frame our beliefs and theories about how the world works. Our assumptions dictate who we can talk to, who we go silent with, and who we end up talking past. For example, when I hear an announcement for a talk with the word climate change in the title, I make an assumption that the content of the talk will be narrowly focused on market or geoengineering solutions within the framework of BAU, without an energetic systems framework. HT Odum was called an environmentalist occasionally, but he was wont to bristle up when that happened, suggesting that environmentalists were people who thought they could keep their entitled lifestyle while walling off a token, symbolic piece of nature as wilderness in recompense. People are slowly diffusing down the continuum, with more environmentalists such as Kingsnorth shifting away from green environmentalism towards descent/degrowth perspectives, and perhaps more consumers are becoming environmentalists, as they become disenchanted with the current economic/political state. I see that transition as a hopeful, positive shift in public opinion. Rogers (1962) suggests that diffusion of innovation requires that the new ideas be better than the old in terms of relative advantage, compatibility with an individual’s life, simplicity, trialability, and observability. As the economy worsens, politics becomes more extreme, and the corporation becomes more powerful, simple, frugal, cooperative living may become more advantageous, especially when the simple living behaviors are role modeled by peers. The Occupy Innovators are probably the first significantly large group of visible role models for this change for a complete shift in world views and behaviors.
It is important to question the assumptions that we make in order to identify with a certain world view. The answers to some of the questions below define what you believe, what you know, and where you stand on these issues of growth, energy, the environment, and the economy.
http://www.emergysystems.org/emergy.php Odum, 1998
Are there any systems that do not pulse? How do pulses at different scales of time, territory, and transformity affect growth patterns? Does our economic system pulse, and if so, how? This question is probably the most important question, and it deserves more discussion later. While we view civilization as consistently growing over time, if we expand the view through our macroscope to the larger scale, there have actually been many, many civilizations over time, rising and falling as they grow and descend over time. Is there a difference between the organization and behavior of individuals and communities in different phases of growth and contraction?
No matter what your beliefs on these issues are, it is important to ask yourself these questions regarding energy in our growth-focused economy. How we view energy and growth is either a non-issue, or it is a political campaign issue, or it is the fundamental question for our time, depending on our perspectives, our understanding of systems, and the assumptions we make. These three or four potential futures are radically different from each other; the outcome will probably be dictated by thermodynamic laws. Understanding the pulsing, hierarchical nature of systems can help us to parse our future. And if you don’t like the category you’re in, perhaps it’s time to move your thumbtack further down the spectrum on the bulletin board of growth beliefs?