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Peak Oil is You


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Page added on October 23, 2015

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Peak Oil Info-Graphic

General Ideas

Have we peaked? Interesting info graphic put together by Chiltern Thrust Bore LTD.

 



7 Comments on "Peak Oil Info-Graphic"

  1. dave thompson on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 2:40 am 

    Alt power?Solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and nukes, none of these will power up our way of life exclusively, when the oil goes away.

  2. GregT on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 2:57 am 

    “Peak oil is a concept that was originally devised by M King Hubbert in the 1950s. The basic concept is that once oil production reaches it’s maximum output, a sharp decline will follow causing huge economic problems.”

    No need to worry folks, no huge economic problems in the foreseeable future. Everything is A OK. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming, and don’t forget that consumption is the key to prosperity.

  3. rockman on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 8:32 am 

    And here’s the standard response: The amount of commercial undeveloped reserves has no bearing on PO: it’s the production rate and not the volume.

    But even there they miss the obvious: the world reached its max of undeveloped oil reserves decades ago: those have been the many billions of bbls produced for the last 80+ years. The obvious: the world had X billion of bbls of oil reserves before the first well was drilled: the remains reserves = X billion bbls – global oil production to date (1.3 TRILLION BBLS). Even the most absurdly rediculous guess of remaining producible oil falls far short of 1.3 TRILLION BBLS OF OIL. IOW global peak oil reserve was reached many, many decades ago. Obviously not only do they not understand PO they also don’t understand the simple concept of peak reserves.

  4. Jerry McManus on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 10:56 am 

    They could have explained the whole concept with one small graphic: the resource pyramid.

    Relatively small amounts of light sweet conventional at the top of the pyramid and increasingly larger amounts of lower quality hydrocarbons towards the bottom.

    That is what is called “resource”

    Now picture a line through the pyramid, not quite the middle but somewhere closer to the top.

    Everything above the line is what is considered economically recoverable given current prices and technology.

    That is what is called “reserves”

    Generally speaking the lower down the pyramid you go the more difficult and costly it is to recover the lower quality resources. Think tar sands.

    Now consider that the line is constantly moving, higher prices and new technology move the line down the pyramid and increase reserves.

    Demand destruction and lower prices move the line up the pyramid and reduce reserves.

    It is estimated that the total size of the pyramid is in the range of 6 trillion barrels of oil.

    If we are lucky we may eventually extract and burn about a third of that, or about 2 trillion barrels, and we have already done a superb job of burning up one of those trillion.

    Shouldn’t take us long now to burn through the other trillion barrels,
    assuming of course that we don’t mind trashing the planet in the process.

  5. rockman on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 1:38 pm 

    Good words Jerry. But think about a different pyramid: one showing the earth’s total oil reserves that existed from the start. But only those whicb one could subjectively define as sustainable by the economy’s ability to afford it. Consider how much oil production increased during the “shale revolution”. Let’s be generous and say it increased US production an average of 3 million bopd for 10 years start to when we fall back to the earlier level. That wouod represent a gain of 11 BILLION BBLS to the global oil reserve base. IOW the great shale miracle resulting from record high oil prices represents 0.9% of the total global oil reserves ever produced.

    You see where I’m going: yes, a pyramid…an upside down pyramid. Think about: all the bullshit about huge future reserve development and after years of very high oil prices (which the economy could handle only so long) and that brought a huge 0.9% increase in recoverable reserves. With much of the later recovered reserves being of questionable economic recoverable volumes.

    IMHO one should really question the ultimate production of economically recoverable some are predicting

  6. Jerry McManus on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 3:30 pm 

    Thanks Rockman,

    I think we are on the same page, the line that I described as being the limit of economically recoverable reserves was indeed moved slightly down the pyramid by the so-called shale revolution, but as you pointed out it was not by much.

    Everything above the line is what the economy can afford (or more to the point what any willing buyer will pay for) everything below the line will, for whatever reason, stay in the Earth’s crust.

  7. rockman on Sat, 24th Oct 2015 6:49 pm 

    Jerry – Yes: we are looking at two different pyramids: yours of unproduced reserves and mine of produced reserves. I think my curve (especislly fhe very tiny sliver resulting from those years of high oil prices that allowed development of thoss very exoensive unconventional reserves makes an even stronger argument against the cornies.

    Think about it: they brag how all that “new technology” (aided by record high oil prices) has been a game changer. And the change: an increase in global RECOVERED OIL of less than 1%. If that’s all the now dead boom achomplished what new future miracles are going to bring 10x…20X…or more new reserves into the mix?

    I think the minimal results of the shale boom the cornies cling on to does more to damage their hopes then any other FACT. They just focus on the rate increase and ignore just how very little the entire event changed the global URR estimates. Just by accident I think I’ve diecovered their fatal Achilie’s heal. LOL

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