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OPEC seaborne exports continue to fall, analyst says

LOS ANGELES — Seaborne oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, except Angola and Ecuador, will decline by 770,000 b/d in the 4 weeks to Apr. 11, according to shipping analyst Oil Movements (OM).

Exports will average 22.23 million b/d, down from 23.00 million b/d in the 4 weeks to Mar. 14, OM said in an estimate that is lower than last week’s, which itself represented a 5 1/2-year low of 22.41 million b/d.

“Demand for long haul (mainly OPEC) crude will continue to head south running into the next quarter,” OM said, adding: “OPEC sailings are set to fall sharply in the 4 weeks to Apr. 11.”

It said the “contest in the first quarter between declining crude demand and OPEC supply restrictions may be about to end in a tie. Crude futures have climbed back above $50/bbl since OPEC decided to hold to current quotas, a qualified signal of approval from the market.”

But OM said the first quarter will likely close out with a sizeable crude stock overhang still in place in Atlantic basin markets, if not globally.

Oil and Gas Journal

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