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Page added on May 15, 2018

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Oil Depletion Analysis Centre

General Ideas

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

Last week began with a brief weakening of the oil price in response to the latest interest rate adjustment by the Fed, this was however extremely short-lived. By mid-week oil was breaking records again going past $120/barrel. The future of the oil price was the subject of a widely quoted report from Goldman Sachs as well as a recent report by CIBC. Both reports anticipate impending supply constraints, the effects of which will force demand rationing in the OECD nations, especially in the area of transport fuel. So far there is no evident change in strategy from the leaders of the US or the UK with both Messrs Bush and Brown still calling for OPEC to raise production. Malcolm Wicks in the meantime spent time this week looking at an extinct volcano in the US in search of a fix to increase the potential recoverable reserves from the declining North Sea oil fields. This puts an interesting slant on the delicate position in which Gordon Brown found himself this week with regard to calls for a referendum on Scottish Independence.

The deadline for bids for British Energy has arrived. The French company EDF appears to be the frontrunner. This week the Tories asked for greater transparency on the sale, which is to lead Britain’s nuclear future. Alan Duncan, the shadow business secretary, asserted that “Our energy security . . . should be above party politics”, a quote worth making note of. In the Guardian Michael Meacher provided commentary on the challenges inherent in betting on a nuclear renaissance.

The food crisis continued to dominate much ink during the week. A knock on effect of the high oil price is rising fertilizer costs. According to reports, farmers in the bread basket of Kenya have planted only a third of what they planted last year due the high cost of fertilizer, which has more than doubled in a few months. High food prices and fear of shortages are leading to greater protectionism around food. This week saw discussion in Asia of a ‘rice OPEC’ and reports that Saudi Arabia is making plans for stockpiles.

In economic news this week the Ernst & Young Item Club revised its forecast for UK growth downwards, in response to rising oil prices. The Labour party felt the pain of the downturn in the ballot box as they were routed in local council elections. The electorate clearly doesn’t want the good times to end. Reports this week demonstrated that while rising food prices are driving up inflation Britons are throwing away £9bn/year of ‘avoidable food waste’. In the meantime, in the same week as the AA reported an 11% increase in the cost of motoring in the last year alone, the Office of National Statistics released figures which showed no corresponding decrease in car travel. Some habits are hard to break.

Alert: If you are a UK voter you may want to write to your MP to encourage them to sign an Early Day Motion tabled by John Hemming MP, Chair of APPGOPO. EDM 1453 calls on the government to urgently review its prediction as to when peak oil will occur, in the light of rising energy and food prices. You can find out who your MP is and email them through www.writetothem.com

Oil
Oil hits new high amid warnings of $200 peak
Oil Rises to Record $125 as Nigeria Unrest Draws Speculators
Total’s First-Quarter Profit Climbs 18% on Record Oil
Bush to seek OPEC oil production increase
UK’s Brown seeks Opec pressure
US volcano may hold key to UK oil reserves

Gas
EU eyes progress on gas pipelines from Iraq, Egypt

Electricity
MEPs to vote to open up EU energy market

Nuclear
Centrica joins with EDF in British Energy deal
Tories increase pressure over British Energy auction
Bad reactions
Russia, U.S. sign civilian nuclear pact

Food
Food Price Crisis Called Global Hunger Emergency
Fertilizer prices more than double
Asean acts over rice prices
Saudi eyes food investments overseas, stockpiles

Economy
Oil’s surge to $120 poses new threat to UK economy
Jeremy Warner’s Outlook: With utility bills likely to rise another 30-40 per cent, oil still has the power to shock
US sees oil use down on weak economy, high prices

UK
Food waste on ‘staggering’ scale
Britain not green enough
‘Lazy, short-sighted and irresponsible’

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre.



6 Comments on "Oil Depletion Analysis Centre"

  1. forbin on Tue, 15th May 2018 6:32 am 

    there were 27.2 million households in the UK in 2017.

    £4,635 in 2017 on spending on food = 126.07 billion on food

    so is that actually 7.13%

    quick web search :-

    8 May 2008 – The study found that £9bn of avoidable food waste was disposed

    2013 The study found that £9bn of avoidable food waste was disposed of in England and Wales each year.

    2012 householders across the UK throw away £10.2bn of avoidable food waste every year

    or

    UK households binned £13bn worth of food in 2015 that could have been eaten,

    makes that 10.3% wasted

    so if I can’t trust this article to get this fact right , what about the rest ?

    Forbin

    Ps: eat at home, bulk buy , you know the drill….

  2. Ghung on Tue, 15th May 2018 7:49 am 

    Dead link from 2008? Really? ODAC, founded by Colin Campbell, is essentially defunct. Wikipedia:

    “The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity. The centre is working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world’s oil depletion and peak oil problem. It is based in London and belongs to the New Economics Foundation.

    ODAC was founded in June 2001 on the belief that an informed public debate about the likely impacts of depleting oil supplies is critically needed. A growing number of experts now predict that world oil production has peaked or will reach its physical peak within the coming decade and then start to permanently decline. The prevailing view of most energy policy-makers and institutions is that near-term oil supply is mainly an economic and geopolitical concern. Under almost any scenario, however, lead time is running short for a smooth transition to new energy systems and a less oil-dependent way of life.

    On March 30, 2012, the activities of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) were taken over by its parent organisation, the New Economics Foundation (NEF).”

    Yet another peak oil effort that was, it seems, ahead of its time, which few will remember when oil peaks forever. Meanwhile, carry on smartly and keep burning stuff.. Nothing to see here.

  3. rockman on Tue, 15th May 2018 9:45 am 

    I do greatly prefer their title, “Oil Depletion Analysis Centre”, over anything using “peak oil”. The term “peak oil” has been confusing to many in the past and often been used incorrectly used…both unintentionally and on purpose. Above all else it draws away from the relatively meaningless date of PO.

  4. Anonymous on Tue, 15th May 2018 3:00 pm 

    Ten year old article. So funny to look at these moribund peak oil web sites.

  5. MASTERMIND on Tue, 15th May 2018 3:19 pm 

    Anyoumouse: here is a ten year old article as well.

    Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast

    In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html

    And here is an article from last year.

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Looks like Dr Faith has kept to his same dire prediction over a decade. And the IEA is the worlds leading energy authority.

  6. Cloggie on Tue, 15th May 2018 9:06 pm 

    “Dr Faith”

    Make that dr Fatih Birol. For somebody who pretends to heavily rely on the IEA this is a revealing mistake.

    But you do not believe in peak oil, only in war and anarchy and mass murder and rape.

    And you know what? You are going to get it.

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