Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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Page added on December 6, 2012
An observation worth noting … and pondering, from Sharon Astyk.
The problem is that most people – including decision makers – have no time, no inclination, and no expertise to go in depth in issues such as resource depletion. So, when facing a complex and nuanced issue they tend to choose the interpretation that they like best – it is called ‘confirmation bias.’ Now, surely good news are better than bad news and for most people an apparently authoritative study that says that we are not running out of oil is preferable to the gloom and doom of most depletion studies.
The recent and much-touted International Energy Agency report, citing among other expectations the United States’ rise to the top of the oil production pyramid in a few short years, was certainly music to the ears of those hoping for some good news and verification that the “theory” of Peak Oil has at last (once again) been put to bed.
Good news everyone! Business as usual is just around the corner! No pesky energy conservation measures and no diversion of funds to research alternative sources. Nothing but smooth sailing ahead. Anyone seen any Hummers for sale?
Who cares about facts when such good news is just there for the picking, right? Continuing depletion of conventional resources? We’re not gonna pay any attention to no stinkin’ depletion … that just musses up a good story. We’re just gonna keep frackin’, consequences and facts be damned. Full speed ahead … we’ll worry about the Wall when we get close.
Who cares about how many wells must be drilled almost constantly to maintain some semblance of increasing production? Costs per well? Who cares? Keeping oil prices high to justify all that extra drilling and investment? We’ll figure something out soon enough….Rapid depletion of new wells in the tight oil formations of the Bakken and elsewhere? Can’t be bothered to worry about that! We’ll just drill more!
So what if most of the good stuff has already been found and produced … we’ll just drill even more, dammit!
No time for plans; no time for intelligent and reasoned assessments. And damn sure there’s no time to explore opportunities or make use of our great attributes to consider other options. Nope! Gotta drill, baby, drill!
Good news is good news, even if the facts and reality suggest otherwise. Hell of a strategy….Just wish we weren’t all getting dragged along for the unpleasant ride.