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Page added on June 27, 2014

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James Howard Kunstler: Peak Oil and Our Financial Decline

James Howard Kunstler: Peak Oil and Our Financial Decline



9 Comments on "James Howard Kunstler: Peak Oil and Our Financial Decline"

  1. bobinget on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 11:00 am 

    Dated predictions serve as a disservice to Mr Kunstler.
    We prefer more up-to-date interviews. (actual interview)

    As an investor I always pay attention to what Mr Kunstler has to say. If JHK ever goes bullish on our world economies, I’ll go to cash the next day.

  2. Plantagenet on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 11:57 am 

    Kunstler’s prediction of a “Long Emergency” has proven to be exactly right. There is no “bullish” economic sentiment in his worldview.

  3. hculliton on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 12:43 pm 

    I first read Long Emergency in 2007 and thought, “Hmm, interesting.” The next year as I watched gas prices soar and the economy hit the wall, I revisited LE with a pencil and tape flags. It became a checklist to the evening news. Along with a wry sence of humour, he has a firm grasp of the state of global affairs. Ignor JHK at your peril.

  4. J-Gav on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 4:48 pm 

    Plant – Halleluja. We are once again in agreement. Strange stuff happens eh? Even if the meaning of “long,” (emergency-wise) still awaits its precise definiton. Months, years, decades? My guess is years – and not very many. Call me a “pessimist,” like most everyone around me does, but the ominous signs are there for all to see.

    Bob – I wouldn’t hold my breath for Kunstler to go bullish on world economies.

  5. Makati1 on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 6:37 pm 

    “Empires fail slowly, then all at once.”

    I have a several of JHK’s books and agree with him most of the time.

  6. Arthur on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 11:26 pm 

    On my ipad no podcast or link to the source is visible. Please update!

  7. Energy Investor on Fri, 27th Jun 2014 11:31 pm 

    No. I think this 2010(?) perspective is now just a little outdated.

    1. Central banks ARE not just using QE ZIRP and NIRP but also the funds are being raised to finance shale and in fact any drilling with a bit of hype to it.
    2. There are signs that inflation is winning despite the use of shonky statistics by central banks.

    We are now at a time when the world is very exposed to a further oil supply shock. It may come because Iraq stops exporting due to sectarian wars. It may come because Iran renegges on their nuclear undertakings and so the sanctions get tighter. There may be a brace of severe hurricanes in the GOM that shut down capacity.

    But any further geopolitical disruptions could take Brent soaring over USD120/bbl and thereby prove Kunstler’s Long Emergency thesis at any rate.

    Agreeing with JHK, we must just remember the global financial system is also more brittle than it has ever been, despite the ability to print more credit/money. Financial derivatives were USD710 trillion as of 31 December 2013 and are probably now about USD750 trillion. What we are also hearing is that the security for these derivative bets are missing in China… iron ore, copper and gold are all being offered as collateral when they don’t exist.

    That is a lot of explosive power pent up in the derivatives bomb if there is a financial hiccup of any sort.

    So we could have an interesting 2014 Christmas in store.

  8. Energy Investor on Sat, 28th Jun 2014 12:21 am 

    No. I think this 2010(?) perspective is now just a little outdated.

    1. Central banks ARE not just using QE ZIRP and NIRP but also the funds are being raised to finance shale and in fact any drilling with a bit of hype to it.
    2. There are signs that inflation is winning despite the use of shonky statistics by central banks.

    We are now at a time when the world is very exposed to a further oil supply shock. It may come because Iraq stops exporting due to sectarian wars. It may come because Iran renegges on their nuclear undertakings and so the sanctions get tighter. There may be a brace of severe hurricanes in the GOM that shut down capacity.

    But any further geopolitical disruptions could take Brent soaring over USD120/bbl and thereby prove Kunstler’s Long Emergency thesis at any rate.

    Agreeing with JHK, we must just remember the global financial system is also more brittle than it has ever been, despite the ability to print more credit/money. Financial derivatives were USD710 trillion as of 31 December 2013 and are probably now about USD750 trillion. What we are also hearing is that the security for these derivative bets are missing in China… iron ore, copper and gold are all being offered as collateral when they don’t exist.

    That is a lot of explosive power pent up in the derivatives bomb if there is a financial hiccup of any sort.

    Oil prices may even be poised to deliver that hiccup.

    So we could have an interesting 2014 Christmas in store.

  9. Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 28th Jun 2014 6:27 am 

    EI, definitely a possible lump of coal for Christmas. I follow Zero Hedge daily. All the signs of Ponzi scheme tears are there for those that are not a part of the herd and drinking from the spiked Kool Aid punch bowl. BTFD and BTFAH are pure Ponzi scheme traits that is what is driving prosperity for a few now. The social fabric is fraying with normal people are realizing the Fed’s policies are benefiting a few at their expense. Midterm elections should be interesting. There will be little change in the US government dysfunctional operation with a change of leadership. The interesting part is how ugly the name calling gets. When there is little that can be done all that is left is name calling. China financial system is unraveling along with a Europe that is already in a masked sovereign default. Spain is the latest crack in the fancy European lies and deceptions. Half the world’s GDP is dysfunctional with the above mentioned countries. The rest of the world and third world is nothing more than a sidekick to the above big boys poker game. Throw in geopolitical insecurity in the heart of the energy basket and you have the match to lite the fire of descent. The big question is do we have a correction with a moderate to soft landing or a brutal, ugly adjustment. I feel collapse is down the road but its possibility is ever present. Hyper complex systems have a way of crashing.

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