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If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity
Global catastrophes—events that wipe out at least 10% of the world population—obviously don’t happen very often. But they have happened in the past; the plague in the 14th century, for example, killed as much as 17% of the global population. More recently, the Spanish flu in 1918 killed between 50 to 100 million people—not quite an official catastrophe by this definition, but still as much as 5% of the people in the world.
That was before modern medicine. Today, though, we face even more potential risks. A new report, Global Catastrophic Risk 2016, outlines exactly what might go wrong—and what we might do to prevent it.
Pandemics
Despite medical advances, pandemics like the plague or the flu are still a risk. If the H5N1 bird flu became easily transmissible between humans, by some estimates, it could kill as many as 1.7 billion people. Right now, it doesn’t easily spread. But two recent scientific papers showed how to make a version that could be more transmissible. As new gene editing techniques such as CRISPR make it simpler and cheaper to change organisms, there’s more of a risk of accidental release of lethal diseases from labs, or intentional release by terrorists.
Natural pandemics are also still a risk; flu pandemics happen relatively frequently (though none have been at the scale of “catastrophe,” so far, they’ve occurred 10 times in the last 300 years). It’s possible that a disease as transmissible as some types of the flu, but as lethal as Ebola, could emerge, and spread around the world as people travel.
Nuclear war
Nuclear war is also still a risk, though there are far fewer warheads around now (9,920, as of 2014) than there were a few decades ago. This isn’t just a movie scenario. On multiple occasions in the past, we’ve come close to nuclear war: In 1995, Russian systems read a Norwegian weather rocket as a nuclear attack, and Yeltsin had launch codes ready.
In addition to killing millions of people, the smoke from bombs could block sunlight and end food production for years. The most likely intentional nuclear war right now might be between India and Pakistan. By some pessimistic estimates, the nuclear winter that would follow a hypothetical conflict between those two countries could starve 1 billion people.
Super volcanoes and asteroids
There are other, less likely natural risks. A super volcano that erupted in Indonesia 70,000 years ago seems to have caused mass extinction as clouds of dust and sulphates blocked out light and killed plants. It’s possible that this type of eruption may happen every 30,000 to 50,000 years. Asteroids and comets could also potentially kill 10% of the global population—or, if the asteroid was larger than 1.5 kilometers, the entire world. The risk is fairly small, though: a 1 in 1,250 chance of impact in a 100-year period.
Catastrophic climate change
While ordinary climate change is obviously pretty bad, climate change beyond our projections that totally destroys the environment is also possible. If researchers have underestimated the sensitivity of climate systems, or if feedback loops start happening—like arctic permafrost melting, and releasing methane that speeds up warming, melting more permafrost—it’s possible that temperatures could rise six degrees or more, making huge chunks of the planet mostly uninhabitable. Some scientists have estimated that there’s a slight chance of six degrees of warming even if emissions are dramatically cut now.
Emerging risks
Like the risk of a bioengineered flu designed by terrorists, it’s also possible that other real-life viruses could be engineered using information available on the Internet. The genetic data for smallpox, for example, is easy to find online, and new tools make it possible to synthesize a real bug from this information.
And then there are potential unintended consequences: The robots we’re developing today are expected to be able to do what humans can do at some point in the next few decades, and soon after that, to be “superintelligent.” They may decide they don’t need us. To prevent destruction from climate change, we might try to geoengineer a solution, but this also comes with risks, especially if some countries decide to deploy them without worrying about how those actions affect weather in other regions.
The report looks at how likely each of these risks are to materialize within the next few years, and how they should be prioritized. Many are interrelated—climate change, for example, may cause mass migration into slums with poor sanitation, increasing the risk of a global pandemic. But many of the solutions, such as building up resilience, are also connected.
“Because all of the risks have the shared property of seeming a little bit unreal—a little bit far off—many of the political effects that cause them to be under-addressed are shared, and can be tackled collectively,” says Sebastian Farquhar of the Global Priorities Project at Oxford University, one of the authors of the report.
The report suggests specific solutions, such as potentially requiring researchers using new gene editing techniques to get a license, building up a better stock of vaccines and drugs around the world, or implementing carbon taxes. They’re hoping that laying out the problems clearly can help push for prioritization of issues that often don’t get as much attention.
Farquhar believes all of the challenges are addressable. “I’m still saving up a pension, so I guess that tells you something,” he says. “I’m an optimistic person. I think we can overcome these challenges, but it’s not going to happen automatically.”
He points to the fact that nuclear war has been avoided in the past because single officers have decided, at the last minute, not to push the button. “I think we can put a lot of faith in conscience, in individuals doing what’s right, but we can’t rely on that forever,” he says. “We do need to set the structures up to support that, and to try to build a more collaborative and trust-based global environment, with more coordination and collaboration between states. Otherwise we’re going to just keep rolling the dice, and one day, we’ll lose that dice roll.”
79 Comments on "If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity"
Apneaman on Wed, 4th May 2016 1:50 pm
If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity?
YES
It’s called humanity.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 3:49 pm
Apne we knew that in the sixties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE8DihsI80s
BY the way, they made “hey joe”.
onlooker on Wed, 4th May 2016 5:00 pm
Truer words have never been spoken. We are our own worst enemy.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 5:23 pm
Onlooker :Or maybe it’s just another selection off the the best fit. It’s pretty obvious that some seems to adopt to the new situation, while others BAU. I personally wouldn’t mind a new weed-out.
Anonymous on Wed, 4th May 2016 5:44 pm
Great, Im so scared now I just pee’d myself. WTG internet. Here I was thinking Id go to store, or work in the garage. But no, now I learn there are ‘terrorists’ out there right now bioengineering killer flu’s. Or maybe not. But why would the internet lie about flu-terrorists and killer asteroids that could drop on my pointy head at any moment?
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 5:56 pm
Anonymous, Something is brewing out there, be it financial crisises or natural disasters. We don’t know where or when, but if you count in decades it will be soon.
onlooker on Wed, 4th May 2016 6:01 pm
Yeah, we know that. In the main section we call it the Overshoot Predator. It is one big mean predator. It is out there lurking. One that sometimes is overlooked in the Global Pandemic. Scientists say a matter of when not if.
Davy on Wed, 4th May 2016 6:04 pm
Anonymous from Toronto should be worried there are mericants that are looking for him. Anonymous watch “Deliverance” again. You gonna squeal like a pig and cry like a baby when the mericants get done with you.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 6:17 pm
Onlook, we might actually be the losers our selves in that game. Intellect and insight often lead to lack of stamina. Just ask Apne and Makati, they have allready given upp, just waiting for thinghs to happen while comfortably looking from the side line.
I know it’s an old discussion, but i’m not giving upp that easy.
makati1 on Wed, 4th May 2016 6:23 pm
“If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity”
“IF” LMAO
Humanity is already committing suicide. The only question is which will kill us off first, climate change or a nuclear exchange. My bet as of this day is a nuclear exchange. All of the signs are pointing toward that event in the not too distant future.
Giving up Claman? Well, you might say that or you might say that we are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best but the future is NOT bright and it may be very short. Not decades but minutes. For my families sake, I hope it is decades but the signs are not there.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 6:37 pm
Onlooker, Sometimes I kind of like when Theedrichs speak of “the white mans guilt”.
I think it’s time for cultures to be egotistic if they so pleases. It’s not racism , it’s culturism. Everbody is welcome , if they are not undercover agents for some of the many gods that are trying to take over our planet.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 6:48 pm
Mak: Comon, just look at the thriving wildlife around Chernobyl. We will survive as a race, even beyond the nuclear harmageddon.
JuanP on Wed, 4th May 2016 7:36 pm
Claman,If you dig a little deeper you will find out that wildlife isn’t really thriving around Chernobyl. It is actually the other way round. While some weeds and a couple of animal species have increased their numbers since humans were moved from the area, and nuclear industry pays for studies on this shit to save face and create confusion, there are many scientific papers published over the years that prove that biologic, genetic, and ecosystem diversity have declined and degenerated in the Chernobyl area. You are falling for the superficial propaganda.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 7:56 pm
JuanP, when arguing with Mak you have to use superficial propaganda. But OK, I might have gone a little too far
Apneaman on Wed, 4th May 2016 8:19 pm
Forked tongue PM Justin Trudeau is commenting in the media that the fires should not be linked to AGW. Sure thang supreme leader. He also said after he was elected (Ran on solving climate change) that we need them tar sands pipelines to earn the money for our green solar panel future. He sucked em all in even better than Obama did LMAO.
Here’s a report from meteorologist Eric Holthaus
Wildfire Rips Through Canadian City, Forcing 80,000 to Flee. This Is Climate Change.
“One thing that is certain is that this fire has a clear link to climate change. Canada’s northern forests have been burning more frequently over recent decades as temperatures there are rising at twice the rate of the global average. A 2013 analysis showed that the boreal forests of Alaska and northern Canada are now burning at a rate unseen in at least the past 10,000 years. ”
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/05/04/fort_mcmurray_alberta_wildfire_forces_major_evacuation.html
Dreamy Justin’s weasel words
“One thing we know is that with climate change there will be more extreme events,” said Trudeau. “But, we know very well that placing a direct link between any fire or a flood and climate change goes a step beyond what is helpful and does not benefit a conversation we must have.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/04/canada-wildfire-evacuation-fort-mcmurray
Doomed
JuanP on Wed, 4th May 2016 8:33 pm
Florida’s coral reefs are dissolving faster than they can grow, https://www.rt.com/usa/341874-florida-keys-reef-dissolving/
makati1 on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:01 pm
JuanP. claman is just in denial.
Goat1001 on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:07 pm
There are eight billion humans on the planet all passing gas, methane gas!
makati1 on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:17 pm
And billions of cattle, goats, sheep, horses, zebras, pigs, lamas, yaks, camels, bears, elk, moose, mule deer, bison, etc. Your point is?
Apneaman on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:17 pm
claman, if I shot a Chernobyl deer would you eat it?
I would……and wash it down with a bottle of Flint City cancer spring water.
The lead helps protect the brain from the radiation.
All good
makati1 on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:21 pm
After the thousands of nuclear tests since 1945 and the leaking of hundreds of nuclear sources all over the world, I would doubt that any of our food or water sources are radiation free. Even the air we breathe is contaminated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY
makati1 on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:28 pm
Not to mention that disease can now travel at the speed of a jetliner.
https://www.flightradar24.com/25.81,-140.45/2
Zoom in or out, left and right to see how this can happen. What is it like in your part of the world?
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:39 pm
Apne, I’m eating reindeer from northern sweden, and they were pretty hard hit by the chernobyl cloud. I don’t eat that too often though 🙂
But then again it’s a question about being black/white or accepting reality’s multitude of grey-zones
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:47 pm
Mak, I might be in “partial” denial, but I think you have to diversify your answers just a little bit. Some times they sound like an answering machine.
claman on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:52 pm
sun is almost upp. sleep tight
makati1 on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:53 pm
Because they are true? Facts are facts. Twisting them to make the future sound rosy are not facts. They’re lies. And that is ALL that comes out of the US MSM these days. So, why parrot the government line like some here? If it is repetitive, maybe it is because it has not sunk into enough dumbed down American minds yet?
Davy on Wed, 4th May 2016 9:53 pm
Clam, Makati Bill is the one in denial. He can’t face his anger and pain for his failed US life.
JuanP on Wed, 4th May 2016 10:28 pm
Ap “The lead helps protect the brain from the radiation.” LOL! Best quote of the week!
Anonymous on Wed, 4th May 2016 10:51 pm
But Ap, of course, the neo-liberal wonderboy cant even hint at pin wildfires on climate change. The answer why should be pretty obvious.
If he implies those fires may be be, even in an in-direct way, tied to CC, people would start looking for at those most responsible for CC.
That would be oil and auto corporations. (uS controlled ones, Canada has no oil or industry of its own.
Having a media-friendly leader blame big oil for big fires, would give ammunition (a lot), and credibility, to those fighting against the tar-sands, and uS oil in general.
Gov’t is to supposed look after the common good, and environment etc(in theory). But J is a good neoliberal in sheep’s clothes(hes a much pastier version of Obama) and would never pour cold, or hot, water all over uS oil corporations, or their gooey strip mining in Alberta.
If he DID,that it could lead to possible legal challenges. Challenges which, if won, would force the regime to actually regulate uS oil corporations. That would be bad, and inconvenient too boot. Even if such challenges were lost, it would still put uS oil under the microscope. That also would be bad.
So J keeps his mouth shut and deflects any talk of CC being responsible for anything. Except in the most abstract way possible. He’ll do that, but specifically.
Like all good western neo-liberals, he does and says what his corporate handlers tell him to. He is allowed to be vague and nonspecific and make the usual motherhood type statements. He can even look concerned for the people there, might even mean it too.
But saying the ‘C’ word out loud?, that’s off the table…
onlooker on Wed, 4th May 2016 11:16 pm
I can understand how some cannot or do not wish to see the totality of all the facts of our demise or the demise of a livable planet. But facts are the facts. Living in false hope may be comfortable for some but not me. To bad many other humans are not like me or some others on this board. If they had been maybe WE would not have tolerated all this shit from happening.
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 1:09 am
Fort McMurray’s 80,000 Climate Refugees
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT0rXeo1SCI
theedrich on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:38 am
Canadian suicide: “In Canada, military bases are now being used to host migrants from Middle East. Justin Trudeau, the new Canadian prime minister, first halted military strikes against ISIS, then refused to join the coalition against it. Terrorism has apparently never been a priority for Trudeau — not like ‘gender equality,’ global warming, euthanasia and injustices committed against Canada’s natives.”
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:58 am
Douchy, did that article from the whack job “Gate stone Institute “think tank” get your little black heart going pitter patter?
have a happy
https://youtu.be/obuZpjv9hv0?t=21
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 6:25 am
Toronto Anonymous says “uS controlled ones, Canada has no oil or industry of its own.” Typical Canadian shifting the blame from their dumbass to the US. Toronto Anonymous read this so you can educate yourself about your country and that you have oil companies douche bag. Just two clicks and a search dumbass.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_petroleum_companies
Anonymous from Toronto you do realize your country allows autos and oil to be produced there. You do realize Canadians are shareholders in all these companies and US ones. This is the kind of BS attitude that reflects on Canadians and makes them look like whiners and two-faced hypocrites on this board.
Not that it matters but I have not reveled in the tragedy of Fort McMurry. This is a human tragedy and one that has no nationality. It is called modern life and it is coming to all of us soon enough so get used to it. We have set in motion forces of destructive change at multiple existential levels. I feel for these people and the people in Houston. Many of these people who have little clue or the opportunity to know better why these disasters are happening. There is nothing they can do if they knew. We have passed through a door of no return and face collective doom.
We are all in a trap and we are all to blame and not to blame. It is just life of a species that has an evolutionary dead end large brain that gets that species into trouble. In fact gets all of life into trouble. In a sense we are just an offshoot of other life so this is a condition found in life and in nature. We all have a common beginning. Too much intelligence in any species is likely an evolutionary dead end. That is speculation and we will never know but one thing seems obvious in our case too much intelligence is unable to practice self-control. Too much intelligence is driven to more intelligence which must open doors it shouldn’t.
There are others on this board that routinely and daily revel in tragedy in the US. Everything is the fault of the US from our so called “neighbors?” to the North on this board. Now it is your turn and let’s see how you like it.
Dredd on Thu, 5th May 2016 9:14 am
In a world of growing insanity, with no treatment for group-insanity, the insane folk will prevail (The Peak of Sanity – 11).
Dig the POGO principle (Why The Military Can’t Defend Against The Invasion).
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 9:32 am
Great posts Dredd. In reference to the first one, the insane folk will prevail temporarily. In the long run, the sane folk prevail. Caveat though, is that the insane folk have so screwed up the world probably nobody will prevail. As for the second, yes that is the Great Irony, we have all these false flag threats, when in reality the biggest and baddest are all underplayed or ignored. At least this is the pattern.
Anonymous on Thu, 5th May 2016 11:51 am
Hey drich, you DO realize dont you, that the USlamic state *works* for the empire, don’t you? But all uS puppets are obligated to make noise about ‘defeating the USlamic state’, or some such nonsense. ‘ISIS’, a uS controlled political military asset, is the gift that keeps on giving. Refusing to ‘join the fight against the USlamic state’ is actually sensible policy, but is also a profoundly anti-uS thing to do. ‘Canada’ does not have a ‘terrorism’ problem, nor is fighting ‘terrorism’ a realistic, or even useful policy. Much less an achievable goal. The uS has to drag is ‘allies’ into unwinnable drawn out confrontations around the world who’s publicly stated ‘goal’s are seriously at odds with their real agendas.
But not to worry, despite announcements to scale back official Canadian involvement the uS’s Global War OF Terror, the neo-liberal regime is still very supportive of western invasion, sorry, humanitarian interventions around the globe, spearheaded by amerika.
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:02 pm
Absolutely, the so called “War on Terror” is the response of the US empire to a threat to its continued hegemony and not from “terrorists”. No from its own lack of anything resembling a coherent strategy and direction. Just a flailing and greedy waning Empire using now its remaining true asset. Its Military.
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:16 pm
Dream on Toronto anony-mouse, Canada is an accomplice to all the sins of its neighbor by association and complicity. It is a willing participant in the rape and pillage directly and indirectly. It prosperity and high standard of living are a direct result of its relationship with the US. Canada has a large arms industry selling arms to ME states who support terrorism. You are a double standard dumbass hypocritical liar.
Boat on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:20 pm
onlooker,
“No from its own lack of anything resembling a coherent strategy and direction”
When unstable countries threaten the worlds oil supply and by extension the global economy, the leaders and their militaries will be taken out. It’s that simple.
PracticalMaina on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:27 pm
Wow, Boat you realize that is stealing resources from a nation, correct? Why does Putin do business with the US? Cause he would rather make money than get shot as you have just admitted you would have no problem with.
The Canada vs America thing should probably take a step back and we should talk about the Neo-Nazi movement taking place in Europe. As a kid I always thought of a place like Sweden as a Utopia of tolerance and progressive ideas.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/04/woman-defied-neo-nazis-sweden-tess-asplund-viral-photograph
PracticalMaina on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:29 pm
You want to sell oil in something other than USD huh? Nice knowing ya.
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:32 pm
Yes they’re is not much dragging of other rich countries they all are hand in hand complicit in the state of the world and world affairs. Where more coercion is utilized is against the poor countries whose masses of people do not benefit at all from the Neo-liberal Capitalistic policies. Yet even there, the Elites of those poor countries do benefit and thus have some vested interest in seeing business as usual continue. The history of Capitalism is the history of corruption to the deepest levels and of the prioritizing of wealth over all other considerations and against all opposition.
GregT on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:32 pm
Those countries were destabilized by the US Boat, so that the globalists could steal their resources.
And also Boat, murder is never anything less than murder. It’s that simple.
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:35 pm
Yes Boat it is that simple. Might makes right. Money is power. Believe me, I get it.
Boat on Thu, 5th May 2016 12:47 pm
This is how the world has operated since humans evolved. gregt, one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter. Are you a terrorist supporter?
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 1:13 pm
Here is a good example of Might makes right. The wall st. crowd making out like bandits that is what quantitative easing has really given us. Former Fed Officials on Quantitative Easing: “A Feast for Wall Street”, “Legalized Bank Robbery” and “High Grade Monetary Heroin”
Yep, the rich keep looting the productive economy and the hopes and dreams of the masses now and into the future. So now, they do not even need to invest “their” money just “borrow” it. Never to be paid back. As Mak, says pass the popcorn.
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 1:14 pm
Oops here is link. http://www.globalresearch.ca/former-fed-officials-on-quantitative-easing-a-feast-for-wall-street-legalized-bank-robbery-and-high-grade-monetary-heroin/5358206
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 2:14 pm
Boat, did you know that migration is how all life, since the very first simple cells evolved, operates? That’s well over 3 billion years. The concept of “illegal” immigration is only a few thousand years old. How come you get to cheery pick which things are bad and which are ‘just the way it is’?
Boat the part time determinist.
Anonymous on Thu, 5th May 2016 2:24 pm
“Are you a terrorist supporter?”
If this had been an earlier era, he would have asked,
Are you now, or have you ever been a communist…….