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If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity
Global catastrophes—events that wipe out at least 10% of the world population—obviously don’t happen very often. But they have happened in the past; the plague in the 14th century, for example, killed as much as 17% of the global population. More recently, the Spanish flu in 1918 killed between 50 to 100 million people—not quite an official catastrophe by this definition, but still as much as 5% of the people in the world.
That was before modern medicine. Today, though, we face even more potential risks. A new report, Global Catastrophic Risk 2016, outlines exactly what might go wrong—and what we might do to prevent it.
Pandemics
Despite medical advances, pandemics like the plague or the flu are still a risk. If the H5N1 bird flu became easily transmissible between humans, by some estimates, it could kill as many as 1.7 billion people. Right now, it doesn’t easily spread. But two recent scientific papers showed how to make a version that could be more transmissible. As new gene editing techniques such as CRISPR make it simpler and cheaper to change organisms, there’s more of a risk of accidental release of lethal diseases from labs, or intentional release by terrorists.
Natural pandemics are also still a risk; flu pandemics happen relatively frequently (though none have been at the scale of “catastrophe,” so far, they’ve occurred 10 times in the last 300 years). It’s possible that a disease as transmissible as some types of the flu, but as lethal as Ebola, could emerge, and spread around the world as people travel.
Nuclear war
Nuclear war is also still a risk, though there are far fewer warheads around now (9,920, as of 2014) than there were a few decades ago. This isn’t just a movie scenario. On multiple occasions in the past, we’ve come close to nuclear war: In 1995, Russian systems read a Norwegian weather rocket as a nuclear attack, and Yeltsin had launch codes ready.
In addition to killing millions of people, the smoke from bombs could block sunlight and end food production for years. The most likely intentional nuclear war right now might be between India and Pakistan. By some pessimistic estimates, the nuclear winter that would follow a hypothetical conflict between those two countries could starve 1 billion people.
Super volcanoes and asteroids
There are other, less likely natural risks. A super volcano that erupted in Indonesia 70,000 years ago seems to have caused mass extinction as clouds of dust and sulphates blocked out light and killed plants. It’s possible that this type of eruption may happen every 30,000 to 50,000 years. Asteroids and comets could also potentially kill 10% of the global population—or, if the asteroid was larger than 1.5 kilometers, the entire world. The risk is fairly small, though: a 1 in 1,250 chance of impact in a 100-year period.
Catastrophic climate change
While ordinary climate change is obviously pretty bad, climate change beyond our projections that totally destroys the environment is also possible. If researchers have underestimated the sensitivity of climate systems, or if feedback loops start happening—like arctic permafrost melting, and releasing methane that speeds up warming, melting more permafrost—it’s possible that temperatures could rise six degrees or more, making huge chunks of the planet mostly uninhabitable. Some scientists have estimated that there’s a slight chance of six degrees of warming even if emissions are dramatically cut now.
Emerging risks
Like the risk of a bioengineered flu designed by terrorists, it’s also possible that other real-life viruses could be engineered using information available on the Internet. The genetic data for smallpox, for example, is easy to find online, and new tools make it possible to synthesize a real bug from this information.
And then there are potential unintended consequences: The robots we’re developing today are expected to be able to do what humans can do at some point in the next few decades, and soon after that, to be “superintelligent.” They may decide they don’t need us. To prevent destruction from climate change, we might try to geoengineer a solution, but this also comes with risks, especially if some countries decide to deploy them without worrying about how those actions affect weather in other regions.
The report looks at how likely each of these risks are to materialize within the next few years, and how they should be prioritized. Many are interrelated—climate change, for example, may cause mass migration into slums with poor sanitation, increasing the risk of a global pandemic. But many of the solutions, such as building up resilience, are also connected.
“Because all of the risks have the shared property of seeming a little bit unreal—a little bit far off—many of the political effects that cause them to be under-addressed are shared, and can be tackled collectively,” says Sebastian Farquhar of the Global Priorities Project at Oxford University, one of the authors of the report.
The report suggests specific solutions, such as potentially requiring researchers using new gene editing techniques to get a license, building up a better stock of vaccines and drugs around the world, or implementing carbon taxes. They’re hoping that laying out the problems clearly can help push for prioritization of issues that often don’t get as much attention.
Farquhar believes all of the challenges are addressable. “I’m still saving up a pension, so I guess that tells you something,” he says. “I’m an optimistic person. I think we can overcome these challenges, but it’s not going to happen automatically.”
He points to the fact that nuclear war has been avoided in the past because single officers have decided, at the last minute, not to push the button. “I think we can put a lot of faith in conscience, in individuals doing what’s right, but we can’t rely on that forever,” he says. “We do need to set the structures up to support that, and to try to build a more collaborative and trust-based global environment, with more coordination and collaboration between states. Otherwise we’re going to just keep rolling the dice, and one day, we’ll lose that dice roll.”
79 Comments on "If Something Is Going To Destroy Humanity"
PracticalMaina on Thu, 5th May 2016 2:30 pm
Boat you sound very McCarthy-esq. “you ever given to charity? You have? Communist! Tar and feather them!” The whole you either support our troops or support the terrorist Bush bullshit meme coming out again. I support the troops, that is exactly why I didn’t to send them to where every mighty army for the last 1,000 years has gone to be defeated.
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 3:00 pm
Are you now, or have you ever been a communist…….
Exactly.
Anonymous on Thu, 5th May 2016 3:15 pm
Most uS cornies and sycophants tend to have pronounced authoritarian\groupthink tendencies I have noticed….
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 3:40 pm
yep from years of indoctrination and semi-conscious mind control and manipulation.
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 3:44 pm
It is very apparent individuals like anonymous from Toronto would if they could unleash something terrible on the US. Not only to those we know that are guilty of crimes against humanity, no, that would not be enough for anonymous he would want the innocents to pay also. In his mind they are guilty by association.
In many ways Canada is where we should worry about terrorism potentials. There is a significant latent dislike for America among many in Canada. Among this population of anti-Americans are individuals who are extremist but appear normal. There are numbers out there showing 30% of Canadians have a bad view of the US. Take 30% of that figure and we can guess on those with extreme hatred like the Anonymous from Toronto. Take 1% of that number for a radical capable of terrorism.
It is very easy to imagine individuals like anonymous supporting or participating in attacks on the US. Why not? People like anonymous feel the end justify the means just like a few others on this board. These things snowball and gel just like Hitler did.
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 3:49 pm
WOW, Anonoymous you did yourself a big one ” let me rephrase that:
Most anti-Mericants and sycophants tend to have pronounced authoritarian\groupthink tendencies I have noticed….” Exactly like this board. Right on Anonymous great job. Clap clap clap. F-wack
Boat on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:01 pm
The US invited immigration. Even gave away land to grow it’s population. Times have changed. Sustainability should be the deciding factor for a max population.
Boat on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:08 pm
I already sent $10 to the Canadian Red Cross. Not much but if 1 billion world citizens did the same.
peakyeast on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:09 pm
I would say we are all communists – since all normal functioning families live together with a common economy and shares almost everything.
Its only when we meet the “enemy” i.e. other families that we embrace the burn, slash and loot philosophy: capitalism
GregT on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:10 pm
“gregt, one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter. Are you a terrorist supporter?”
With your logic Boat, both sides would be terrorist supporters.
Myself, I don’t support murder. Period.
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:22 pm
Davy, spoken like a true empire baby. Sounds like another case for a preemptive strike on yet another country. Same as the Nazi’s, same as the Romans, same as the British, same as every empire, same as it ever was. Mommy and daddy would be so proud of you widdle neo con wonder boy. No one has to lift a finger. The US is doing a bang up job of tearing each other apart like a bunch of fucking savages every damn day. Christ you can even watch it with the wonders of the internet. My favorite is watching supposed adults push little kids to the ground and rip an Xbox out their hands in towns all over the country on Black Friday – to save $10 bucks. Your celebration of satanic consumerism. You’re a fucking clown davy and paranoid nationalists like you are more dangerous than anyone. No different than any terrorist cult. If anyone wants to see America fall the best strategy is to leave them to each other. Don’t interfere – just sit back and watch the lower 48 cage match unfold. Fucking rabid animals don’t need any help at all.
FBI Uncovers Al-Qaeda Plot To Just Sit Back And Enjoy Collapse Of United States
“WASHINGTON—Putting the nation on alert against what it has described as a “highly credible terrorist threat,” the FBI announced today that it has uncovered a plot by members of al-Qaeda to sit back and enjoy themselves while the United States collapses of its own accord.
Multiple intelligence agencies confirmed that the militant Islamist organization and its numerous affiliates intend to carry out a massive, coordinated plan to stand aside and watch America’s increasingly rapid decline, with terrorist operatives across the globe reportedly mobilizing to take it easy, relax, and savor the spectacle as it unfolds.
“We have intercepted electronic communication indicating that al-Qaeda members are actively plotting to stay out of the way while America as we know it gradually crumbles under the weight of its own self-inflicted debt and disrepair,” FBI Deputy Director Mark F. Giuliano told the assembled press corps. “If this plan succeeds, it will leave behind a nation with a completely dysfunctional economy, collapsing infrastructure, and a catastrophic health crisis afflicting millions across the nation. We want to emphasize that this danger is very real.”
“And unfortunately, based on information we have from intelligence assets on the ground, this plot is already well under way,” he added.”
http://www.theonion.com/article/fbi-uncovers-al-qaeda-plot-to-just-sit-back-and-en-35788
GregT on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:35 pm
“In many ways Canada is where we should worry about terrorism potentials. There is a significant latent dislike for America among many in Canada. Among this population of anti-Americans are individuals who are extremist but appear normal.”
They’re everywhere, all around you, only you can’t see them. Haha.
You have far more to be concerned about with your fellow Americans Davy, then your imaginary terrorists from Canada who “appear normal”. You guys are already tearing each other apart. You don’t need any help from anybody else.
Boat on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:36 pm
This plan is great. Were tired of protecting the worlds oil supply.
GregT on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:41 pm
“The US invited immigration.”
The indigenous North Americans did not invite immigration Boat. They were slaughtered by the European “immigrants”, who later on named the lands that they stole from them, The United States of America.
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 4:46 pm
Boat’s worried he will lose his job to the illegals staggering across the border.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVyRwWKCtKQ
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 5:08 pm
It’s the Canadians
It’s the Mexicans
It’s the Muslims
It’s the French – fuck the French
It’s the Russians
It’s the Chinese
It’s the North Koreans
It’s the Saudi’s
It’s the Iraqi’s
It’s the Iranians
It’s Al-Qaeda
It’s ISIL
It’s ISIS
It’s Saddam
It’s Assad
It’s Gaddafi
It’s Bin Laden
It’s the Commies
It’s It’s It’s
It’s not us.
Fuck the French.
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 5:09 pm
There you go guys support extremism because you both are extremist Canadians. It is ok to agree with Anonymous from Toronto. In your eyes Anonymous is OK and there is nothing wrong with what he is preaching. You both are complicit in the extremism on this board by criticizing me but saying nothing to the dumbass from Toronto. This is especially true of apehole who routinely spews forth extremist filth and pats the backs of the worst of the extremists. “Good work” says the ape hole. Then your buddy extremist say “I am trying Ape. “Sick”
Ape hole why are you not over at the wildfires helping out? I remember last winter you crowing about the floods here in the Midwest and how I should be slinging sandbags. Where are you dumbass? In mom’s basement pecking at the keyboard spanking people?
Both you and Greg are double standard dumbasses who support extremism except when the gun barrel is pointed at you. Pathetic losers!
Anonymous on Thu, 5th May 2016 5:20 pm
Since when has the empire ‘protected’ the ‘worlds’ oil supply? And from whom exactly? Iran? LOL, sure, whatever. Russia, China, you know, the usual suspects? Pirates maybe arrrrrr.
The empire has long claimed to be ‘protecting’ this oil supply, but the exact nature and scope the alleged ‘threat’, has never really been made clear. And interestingly enough, no military threat has EVER materialized in that region, despite heroic uS efforts to ensure the region remains locked in a state of endless conflict. And this is going back to WWII.
Of course, amerikans would claim the reason for this is clear. america, alone, standing guard over the worlds oil lines ,at its own expense no less, and no thanks to all those ungrateful freeloaders know as collectively as, the rest of the world. But still unable, after all that, unable to credibly articulate what the ‘threat’ is.
Problem with that is, one could also make the claim all that oil would have found its way to americas jet-skis and gas-powered ride-a-long lawn-movers even if not a single one of america’s heroic warriors wasn’t ‘guarding’ the middle-east’s oil traffic.
I found some file footage of some of amerikas finest warrior-sailors in action. The commentator seems a little confused about events, and often refers to them as in ‘custody’, as if they had arrested for drunk&disorderly or something, and not invaders as would be technically correct. Its good to see americas warriors know how to get down on their knees with their hands over their heads properly. Well trained indeed!
Right B?
As usual, the publicly stated reasons for the empires actions bear little resemblance to their true motives and goals.
Anonymous on Thu, 5th May 2016 5:21 pm
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/15/politics/iran-sailors-act-happy/index.html
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 5:33 pm
What’s the matter Anonymous? Got to show how tough you are? Must be a Canadian ThAng. Ape hole behaves the same way after I spank him. You are just a double standard coward with a goofy ass vocabulary of hate, resentment, and extremism.
Apneaman on Thu, 5th May 2016 6:05 pm
Neocon boy, like I told you before on my worst day, with 1 hand tied behind my back and hung over, I could run intellectual circles around you, out debate you, out drink, out fight and out fuck you – anyway you want it bitch. You just a spoiled, coddled, sheltered rich boy. My god what a boring fucking life you must have led never having had to take a chance. Play it safe and follow mommy and daddys behavior blue print. Lotta anger there huh? I bet on the internet is the only place you have ever braced another man in your life. Me, I been running my big mouth since forever and have had to back it plenty of times. Not always successful either, but that ain’t the point. You’re a wanna be tough guy, but the minute TSHTF it will be on the family jet and back behind mamma’s skirts and daddy’s dollars. Half faggit, pussy assed bitch.
onlooker on Thu, 5th May 2016 6:14 pm
This is the advanced stage of corruption and decay Capitalism has reached.
“Former Fed Officials on Quantitative Easing: “A Feast for Wall Street”, “Legalized Bank Robbery” and “High Grade Monetary Heroin”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/former-fed-officials-on-quantitative-easing-a-feast-for-wall-street-legalized-bank-robbery-and-high-grade-monetary-heroin/5358206
makati1 on Thu, 5th May 2016 6:45 pm
Yep! The FSA is well on it’s way to cultural, financial and physical suicide. The coming years will make the Civil War look like a game of “Rover, Red Rover, let Johnny come over”. (If I have to explain that game, you are too young to understand)
Americans will soon not be able to point a finger and blame someone else for their problems. The land of war and greed is about to see it’s breakdown into chaos and a massive police state where you will need “papers” to go to the next town. Or you will be dying of radiation poisoning because the Russians finally had enough.
I figure I have one or two more trips to the FSA before it becomes too dangerous to be there. I’ll take cobras in the Philippine jungle. They will be safer neighbors than armed and stupid flag waving Americans. We have a few examples of those on this forum. LOL
makati1 on Thu, 5th May 2016 6:54 pm
Ap, there is only one person you could be talking about here. The one whose thoughts no longer interest me. I bet he is still rebutting my comments with the usual bullshit.
I don’t read any of them so he is wasting his time but he cannot resist an opportunity to try to prove he is better than anyone else. That 1% indoctrination is deep and irreversible, I guess. Probably has nothing else to do since he hires help to do all the real work on his “farm”. Typical 1%er.
I think your description is accurate. But you are too easy on him. Maybe he spends his evenings “taking care of” his goats. At least it might be a tight fit. LOL
Davy on Thu, 5th May 2016 8:49 pm
Ape hole, this is the Internet. It’s digital and lacks a physical quality so when you act the tough guy you just sound ridiculous. When you brag about yourself it comes across as self-confidence issues. Why don’t you grow up and grow some and act like a real man. That means showing people respect. Show people maturity and modesty instead you represent all that is wrong with the masculinity.
Apneaman on Fri, 6th May 2016 12:08 am
Whatever you say Missouri knife fighter.
Hey why not challenge the newest guy you hate, Anonymous, to a knife fight too?
Nah, that’s getting boring. Hey, I know, how about a nunchuck duel instead?
Go get em Van Dam.
Davy on Fri, 6th May 2016 5:57 am
The difference between you and me spank is when I mention to Ralph Waldo Roehl (however you spell his stupid name) 2 years ago about knife fighting he was spouting off about indiscriminant killing of Americans. You do the same in a veiled camouflaged way. I told Ralphie if he is so tough to come to Missouri and try to indiscriminately kill us but let’s use knives where we can level the playing field and make it personal. Internet brats like you Ape Hole and Ralphie get so tough on the internet because you don’t have to pay the price for your abusive words. You can act tough and talk about killing and hurting people from the comfort of your internet den as a coward does.
You are one of the worst Ape Hole. You routinely advocate lynching the rich and killing Americans. Of course you are sophisticated with the killing of Americans. I am not making a value statement on the rich and their sins just on you and your big mouth. You camouflage this blood lust for Americans by saying “I hope you all kill yourselves off because of gun violence” or something. Good point but the problem is you make it personal and you make it fun for yourself.
I actually have been trained to knife fight. It was long ago when I was younger in my survival training. I have some very effective knives. Knives are a great self-defense tool. Like a gun you never bring them out unless you want to use them. If you plan to use them use them with effectiveness. If possible avoid using them at all cost because it is like a bee that uses his stinger and then dies from using it. Jail or death may result from the use of a deadly weapon. I plan on running away from a conflict if that is the best option. Don’t ever fight over pride. Let a mugger have your $100.
No Ape Hole, you spank people in attacks as a cocky asshole does. I am defending myself against people like you that hate me and want me dead (indirectly of course). Makati Bill has never come out and said “I want you dead Davy” but he has made clear he hopes Russia and China Nuk me, what is the difference?
I am not a coward like Makati Bill who has run off to the P’s in search of his refuge and leaves his big family to their own ends. Many other here talk about a refuge from the crisis ahead. I am here and I will stay. I will protect my family and may die doing so but it will be a good death. It will be a death that has honor and meaning like death used to in the old times when we actually physically defended ourselves. Today we have dying but for reasons of insanity.
So in closing I would say spank you are a bully that needs his ass kicked. You appear to me to have self-confidence issues from being a disabled drug addict with hep C. You make me sick and I loathe you. I read all your post and many are good but it is your asshole attitude that sucks and I wish I could have a chance to kick your ass in person. Who knows maybe you would win but at least I am defending myself with someone who is attacking me. You are a coward like several other coward internet brats on this board and most are part of your gang of anti-americunts. Now you can keep this conversation going or we can get back to the real issues spankie the ape hole. As usual you started the personal attacks.
makati1 on Fri, 6th May 2016 7:19 am
Now it is the US national symbol of the Bald Eagle that is sacrificed for $$$.
‘U.S. wildlife managers on Wednesday again proposed granting 30-year permits to wind farms that would forgive them for thousands of eagle deaths expected during that time frame from collisions of the birds with turbines, towers and electrical wires.”
http://planetark.org/wen/74421
Davy on Fri, 6th May 2016 7:56 am
Makati Bill, what is more important power to keep a civilization running or some obscure symbol? I have eagles on my place as we speak. They are much more common now. Ideally for me I would like to see us back to living without electricity but then there is the inconvient problem of what to do with 6.5BIL people. I don’t think you care about the people or the eagles you just care about making your daily snipe.