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Page added on March 30, 2007

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Dissertation: World oil production close to peak

Worldwide oil development could end next year in the worst potential outcome, or more optimistically, the peak would not be reached until 2018, scientist Fredrik Robelius reports.


In a dissertation to be publicly defended at Uppsala University in Sweden today, Robelius based his forecasts on the study of global oil reserves, new discoveries and historical production.

He focused on the very largest oil fields, so-called giant fields, which produce a total of at least 500 million barrels of oil.


Giant fields comprise only about one per cent of all oil fields in the world, but they nevertheless account for more than 60 per cent of total production.


Unfortunately, the trend is heading downward when it comes to new giant field discoveries, both in terms of the number of fields and the volume of the fields located.


The majority of the largest giant fields are found around the Persian Gulf and are more than 50 years old.


“The dominance of giant fields in global oil production supports the thesis that they will be crucial to what future production will look like,” said Fredrik Robelius.

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