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Civilization and Collapse

General Ideas

The transformation of risk & the predicament of risk management, by David Korowicz, 19 janvier 2017 – Institut Momentum

We have entered a period where the risks we face as a species are becoming potentially far more extreme in their impacts, more probable in their likelihood, and potentially irreversible in their duration. These risks are being manifested now and will increasingly be part of our lived experience. This transformation of risk has arisen due to a confluence of several general factors. I argue for and develop a systems perspective of this transformation of risk and point to some implications. I will discuss the limitations of risk management, but then also offer some pointers of where ameliorating action might be undertaken now, an issue of critical importance given the stakes involved.

voir la vidéo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0zOCy7b3xg

  1. Complexity

We have normalized what is extraordinary (= the Great Acceleration). And this extraordinary change since a few decades is linked to energy and energy flows.

For millennia, life was food insecure, with low surpluses and low population density. But nowadays, there are far more people, who buy their daily bread in supermarkets, with trucks, energy, packaging, etc. We don’t know every connection of the highly complex and interdependent system which is behind. This system is very opaque, and fast speed, with very high level of coordination.

My view is that civilization is a natural system.

Now let’s think about what has been happening for a few years in Europe, North Africa and Syria. Why did this happen? Some say it’s linked to climate change. There was also a violent food crisis before the Arab springs. Those countries were food independent back in the 1950s, but now they are importing ¾ of their food. This means they have to export a lot of other things at the same time to pay it. At that time, there was a peaking in the word oil production, and weak wheat production in Russia: so there were violent variations in world food and energy crises. And the US were trying to tackle their financial crisis in priority. EU had to face a terrible financial crisis too, with a weak growth for several years.

This means that, when the Syrian refugees arrived, Europe had already lost a part of its resilience, and this is still the case. And we have now reached a plateau in world oil production. But economy can’t pay anymore for more expensive energy. So we have very strong variations in energy prices, rising and falling, because global oil production can’t grow anymore (economic peak oil).

We do have now a global credit bubble, and if we don’t believe in it anymore it can just collapse.

There is a link between food prices and social unrest: when food prices rise, first you cut on some leisure expanses (movies, etc.); but as they keep rising you cut on core goods, such as medicine. And in a poor country, a food crisis can rapidly have terrible results.

In a complex and interdependent economy, such crises can have global impacts. The global system can increase local resilience, through financial supports, supply chain supports, operational supports, etc. But this global ability to increase local resilience depends on global vulnerability to local crisis. There has to be global surpluses to increase local resilience.

Our problem today is that we have to face several problems: our ability to face climate change depends on global energy, which depends on the global energy crisis, etc. If we keep adding stresses, the system can’t recover anymore.

Why did EU need so much time to recover a little bit after the 2008 financial crisis? Well, the whole world was facing a major financial crisis, which means that there could not be a significant global support.

  1. Trap system

The transformation of risk (= impact x probability). There is an increasing probability of system breakdown. The longer the system is going, the stronger the impact.

Characterized: growing range of economics, financial, social, environmental, infrastructural stress, volatility, shrinking time and trust horizons. Growing sense of ‘permanent crisis.’

Tension between maintaining existing systems that we depend upon and engaging in costly or time-shifted benefits.

Growing loss of system coordination.

As systems become more vulnerable, danger of doing major ‘surgery’ on critical systems becomes risky.

  1. Large-scale breakdown

The global economy is a metabolism. It consumes energy to maintain itself and it produces waste.

Complexity and risk: because of speed processes (just-in-time logistics), a local disruption can very quickly have major, global impacts. (Cf. UK fuel blockades, 2000).

Cascade and Contagion. Shock => initial impact => multi-system contagion => national production drops => monetary and financial systems destabilized => =>…

Actually, when we had the major 2008 financial crisis, we indeed stopped a major catastrophe, a large-scale breakdown.

Another initial shock could be a major epidemic disease: Black Plague took months and months to travel through Europe, but nowadays it would be very quick because of transportation; and there would be major economic consequences because of absenteeism.

  1. Conclusion: a predicament!

So this is a predicament. According to William Catton, a problem has a solution; whereas a predicament does not. You can’t solve it, you can just react to it, bring a response. You have to answer a predicament with wisdom, but you can’t put an end to it.

We are a resilient species and, even faced to a predicament, there are always options.

We need plans for what might happen, not what you hope to happen.

Anger and blame are a decadent luxury: we need to cooperate. And we need to enjoy life, this is not a despair message.

  1. Questions

Agnès Sinaï: Do you think there may be a tipping point, or rather a catabolic change? We had a shock, many shocks, but not a true tipping point for the moment.

DK: We are in a stress phase. There can be a tipping point linked to a pandemic or a new financial crisis for example. But for now, there is not. There’s just an erosion of our resilience. All we can say is that there is a growing risk of reaching a tipping point.

Cyprien Tasset: What are the strongest objections you have met and what do you think about them?

DK: In Europe, even since 2008 crisis, the number of people living in poverty has been declining. So some people say we are just focusing on the bad things without seeing what’s going better. And some people say there is no risk of catastrophic collapse; the true risk would rather be a catabolic change. And another thing: a lot of people don’t see the interdependence between ecological problems, and just consider climate change (for example).

Yves Cochet: what about the speed of collapse? In your book, you talk about months or years, not decades.

DK: We need to be cautious with definitions here. In reality, we won’t fall to zero once for all; we still have oil reserves for quite along time, but just not as many as before. Collapse is just a major failure of complex system, but it does not mean that everything stops at once and forever.

Mathilde Szuba: What about the quote of Gordon Brown you talked about?

DK: It is a quote by one of his advisers, Damian McBride in 2008. It shows that Brown was truly afraid that everything might collapse.

Alain Gras: You explained how a global system can collapse. But what would be the part of science and technology about it? Would technology collapse too, how?

DK: High-tech needs high levels of complexity, so there are the more vulnerable technologies to a major system breakdown. Chips factories would be highly vulnerable. I suspect that, like in Asimov’s novels Foundation, we will lose a lot of knowledge in the coming times. So we may need some kind of Foundation for the future. (Yves Cochet: Bihouix wrote a book about Low techs.)

Someone: We take collapse here as something that will happen, but one can also look at it as a hypothesis. So could we do something to avoid collapse, by making our societies less complex and taking back control on them? Find a way to redirect things the way we want. Investing in agroecology instead of high-tech things.

Cyril Le Roy: But the billionaires are investing in geo-engineering and not in agroecology, aren’t they?

DK: I do believe that those who have a plan of what might be coming, within civil society, might make the difference. Good seeds. But of course the system keeps trying its old methods as a response to the growing stresses.

Someone: [a question about people being afraid].

DK: the military is quite used to deal with frightening things. They do not panic, they just deal with it, that’s their job. And there’s reflexivity: if people in charge say they are afraid of a major crisis, it will launch a panic; so they have to lie. In Germany, government said that every family should have a two-week food reserve because of terrorism: this is strange, because it is highly unlikely that a terrorist attack has such a consequence. So it may not be because of terrorism, but rather because of major, global risks.

Alice Le Roy: How do you prepare?

DK: I’m fishing, because I live near a river. And I try to engage with my local government. But we need to do it in a pro-social way, not in a kind of survivalist delirium. If there is a crisis, don’t ask how you will survive, but how you can help.

Momentum Institute



18 Comments on "Civilization and Collapse"

  1. Davy on Mon, 13th Feb 2017 6:05 pm 

    I have corresponded with Korowicz. I prodded him for more essays or a book. He is a great guy and very approachable. I have read everything I could find by Korowicz and view civilization in a similar way through a systems perspective. If you are interested in the study of collapse in the abstract he is a great source.

  2. onlooker on Mon, 13th Feb 2017 6:11 pm 

    Predicament means no solution = die off of a substantial percentage of population and a devolving of civilization. Fight for resources likely.

  3. JuanP on Mon, 13th Feb 2017 7:40 pm 

    “If there is a crisis, don’t ask how you will survive, but how you can help.” I glanced over this. I agree with that phrase, though. As I evolved as a prepper I went from worrying about my survival to wondering how I could help others survive. That is the reason that I am now more focused on teaching others how to grow food than on growing food. But, it is also truth, that you need to help yourself before you can help others. Tomorrow I will be starting a new food garden at a preschool in Key Biscayne. I don’t expect the world to be saved because I am convinced that we are doomed because of our nature but I still feel a need to contribute somehow, even if I know are situation is completely hopeless.

  4. makati1 on Mon, 13th Feb 2017 8:39 pm 

    JunaP, your best security is to be among friends and those who are also self-sufficient and prepared. I am working to make my security better. I’m glad you are also. None of us can stand alone.

  5. DMyers on Mon, 13th Feb 2017 9:21 pm 

    DK seems to be a reasonable fellow, and his photo portrait is one I’d be proud of myself. DK is saying, to cut to the chase, that we’re fucked. He lays out the elements nicely.
    I’d have to call his style, “Heavy Accuracy”.

  6. DerHundistlos on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 12:59 am 

    TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAYS NO TO ENDANGERED DESIGNATION FOR BEES

    The first endangered designation for a bee species in the continental U.S. was due to take place for the critically endangered Rusty Patched bumble bee (also, a national survey revealed that between 04/2015 and 04/2016 44% of honey bee hives were lost) until the Trump administration refused protection.

  7. Hubert on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 4:36 am 

    Stupid country is falling apart.

    Oroville Dam Evacuation to Displace 200k People:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oRBd8L-ORA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQSUJGzjmAI

  8. makati1 on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 5:15 am 

    Hubert, you are correct. 12 years ago, they had to close part of Interstate 95 near Philly because the concrete pillars were crumbling. It is only a matter of time until even the deniers will have to accept that they live in the 3rd world now.

  9. Hello on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 5:57 am 

    mak. That’s where you are right. 3rd world immigrants build 3rd world nations. But you live in one, so it aint’ that bad, you saying?

  10. Hubert on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 6:28 am 

    Meanwhile in Paris:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ7FbF_h83M

  11. makati1 on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 6:53 am 

    Hello, it isn’t bad at all. I live in the city where you can find all kinds of 1st world stuff, if you want to waste your money on it. I have also lived some out of the city, in a small town, during my 10 years here. The people are friendly and polite, and enjoy the simple things in life. Family, friends, and generally nice weather year round.

    Yes, there are slums. They are in the U$ also, if you look. There are some people who live on the street. Ditto for the U$. Take away the food stamps and welfare (nonexistent here) and you would have the same percentage of hungry poor as here. Maybe more. ~47 million eating off of the government teat plus the millions on welfare in the US equals about half the total population of the Ps.

    I like it here and feel safer than if I still lived in the Philly burbs.

  12. Davy on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 7:14 am 

    makati, seen any dead people on the street from Duterte’s killing fields?

  13. Ghung on Tue, 14th Feb 2017 12:22 pm 

    I’ve always had respect for Korowicz, but he says; “Another initial shock could be a major epidemic disease: Black Plague took months and months to travel through Europe, but nowadays it would be very quick because of transportation; and there would be major economic consequences because of absenteeism.”

    I notice that folks like Korowicz, Greer, and others avoid the subject of nuclear war. (Trump seems to like to use the words “nuclear option” when referring to other things). Maybe these ‘thinkers’ think that nuclear war isn’t a high probability, or that it is pointless to discuss the possibility. Or maybe they think it’s a big turnoff for readers. Not sure, but my trust in my own species isn’t high enough to discount the possibility. At all.

    Just sayin’…….

  14. Evilization on Wed, 15th Feb 2017 4:19 am 

    “If there is a crisis, don’t ask how you will survive, but how you can help.”
    No way. People who don’t see it coming need to die out. All problems in the world are caused by people who are stupid sheep and want to be herded for security.

  15. R1verat on Wed, 15th Feb 2017 8:27 am 

    Evil I hope you are in a group, for those lone wolves that think they can make it alone are destined to fail. Much work is needed to do all tasks necessary for maintaining, growing, storing what is required to live & you have to sleep sometime. Your best bet would be as a member of a community. There will be quite the die off without help from anyone. Check your attitude. You smack of righteousness.

  16. Hubert on Thu, 16th Feb 2017 3:54 pm 

    **Water Weight** triggers quakes near damaged Oroville Dam!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J0OnCTCDgo

  17. peakyeast on Thu, 16th Feb 2017 4:57 pm 

    You may be right R1verat. But there is IMO just as much chance that you are wrong.

    When mad militarized groups of humans roam the countries for food and stuff you may be right if you are in the group or in a group that is big enough to fight whatever comes your way.. From Abraham A1s to RPGs – because those will be very useful to get food for people who dont know permaculture – and lack any other kind of cultured culture ;-). Like a young population all educated 24/7 with wargames like counter-strike and what not.

    If your group doesnt find food and stuff then you are wrong – because then everyone around you will look at you hungrily.

    It all depends on how the scenario(s) play out.

    If there is such a thing as a rapid collapse with breakdown of government and law and order we will see all the remaining resources – weapons, energy, anything being used to collect anything useful until there is a significant undershoot compared to what nature can provide. And it wont be peaceful and nice.

    Remember Reindeer island? – They ALL died. The case easter island – there were a few scrawny sickly people left and a bare island. That is your group. That is how earth is going to look after this fuck-up – just worse because of our technology.

    Remember the example of Russia? They didnt even come close to what our future seems to hold in stock for us.

    In Russia the population of several species of wild animal populations were collapsing or more in just about a year. Just because of a financial vacuum. They did not lack anything physical.

    Does that look like a good future for groups of anything?

    Well perhaps if that group is invisible and rich beyond measure in stored resources…

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/27/world-on-track-to-lose-two-thirds-of-wild-animals-by-2020-major-report-warns

    https://4thenaturesake.wordpress.com/2015/02/03/rapid-declines-of-large-mammal-populations-after-the-collapse-of-the-soviet-union/

  18. makati1 on Thu, 16th Feb 2017 6:07 pm 

    If you are in a group, you need enough good farmland (and enough people to work it manually) if you want to be independent. You will need weapons equal to the bands roaming the countryside. Tanks? Mortars? Those National Guard Armories will be looted ASAP by the Guardsmen themselves, I bet. It will not just be pistols and rifles.

    Not to mention that most, if not all, water in the States is polluted by industry and sewage. Most farm land can not even grow weeds without tons of chemicals. The 100+ nuclear plants and their tens of thousands of tons of radioactive spent fuel will still be there, unattended. Disease will be rampant when the pharmaceutical company/store/hospitals are closed up. And on and on. Hell on earth is possible.

    Few think the WHOLE situation thru to the end. Or even past their own personal near future. They ASSUME that a few guns and a stock of food is the answer. They will be the first to go when the SHTF big time. What is the answer? For me it was to get out of Dodge. I think I made the best choice. You have to make your own decision. Good Luck!

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