Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on January 3, 2018

Bookmark and Share

A Dangerous Year

General Ideas

‘Tis the season for making predictions about the events lurking in wait for us all in the upcoming year, and I see no reason to demur from that common if risky habit. Those of my readers who’ve been following my blog since the days of The Archdruid Report know that my method in making these predictions is at once simple, effective, and highly unpopular.  Put briefly, I pay attention to what happened when the same conditions occurred in previous historical epochs, and predict that the same consequences are going to follow.

It’s simple because I’ve got five thousand years of history to work with, and since human beings are much less original than they like to think, it’s a safe bet that the events taking place now have occurred many times before, with predictable consequences. It’s effective because, again, human beings are much less original than they like to think, and the more of them get involved in any given event, the more of the Brownian motion brought into being by individual cussedness gets canceled out. Sure, we have lots of shiny new technogimmickry now, but the brains, hearts, and less mentionable organs guiding said technogimmickry haven’t changed noticeably since the end of the last ice age. That’s why the American special forces wasting their time and your money in the northern Euphrates valley right now are enacting a failed strategy that was already old when the legions of the Babylonian Empire were doing the same thing in the same place three thousand-odd years ago.

It’s highly unpopular, finally, because an astonishing number of people in today’s industrial societies labor under the bizarre delusion that when we make the same old mistakes and get the same overfamiliar consequences, we’re actually doing brand new, innovative, unparalleled things that will inevitably succeed in ways nothing has ever succeeded before, and how dare anyone suggest that we might learn something from the lessons of history!  Now of course when somebody proposes a course of action, it’s simple common sense to ask “Well, what happened the last few times somebody tried that?” Try raising that obvious and necessary question in today’s collective conversation, though, and you can count on being shouted down with ringing cries of “But it’s different this time!”

What’s more, when you turn out to be right and they turn out to be wrong—and let’s be fair, that’s nearly always what happens in such cases—you can bet the farm that the next time the question comes up, they’ll be making the same claims. Whether it’s technofetishists insisting that some imaginary mechanical marvel that’s been just ten years in the future since before I was born really is going to happen this year, or purveyors of utopian daydreams insisting that this is the year when their fantasies will become reality, or people who’ve invested in the speculative bubble du jour insisting that said bubble really will keep on levitating forever, or apocalypse fans insisting that modern industrial civilization is going to crash into ruin in a matter of weeks sometime soon, just you watch—well, dear reader, if you’ve been following the collective chatter of our time, you know the words and the music of all these ditties well enough to sing them in your sleep.

When we look back on the steaming remains of 2018 a year from now, in other words, we won’t be thinking of it as the year when fusion power finally became viable, or the year that world peace broke out, or the year that Bitcoin made everyone a godzillionaire, or the year when industrial civilization rolled over, belched, and died. A year from now, what’s more, the dollar and the Euro will still have value, there will still be products on the shelves of your local grocery, petroleum-powered automobiles will still be lurching wastefully down the streets, petroleum-powered airliners will still be rumbling even more wastefully through the skies, and more Americans will be concerned with the outcome of the latest Super Bowl game than with the subjects this blog discusses.

Does this mean that nothing’s going to change? No, quite the contrary.

Some historical epochs are more dangerous than others, and the most dangerous of all are those in which a once-great empire is on the way toward history’s dustbin. Imagine yourself living in such a time. The world you live in—whether that world is a river valley or a planet—is dominated by a nation which could once pound the living bejesus out of anyone who challenged its dominion. Can it still do so? No one knows for sure. The leaders and publicists of the imperial power insist on its invincibility and snarl threats at its rivals; the rivals position themselves for the moment when the illusion of omnipotence cracks once and for all; minor powers push at the boundaries of international order and take risks that would have been unthinkable a few decades before. If this doesn’t sound familiar to you, dear reader, you really do need to get out more.

Several years ago I wrote that the accelerating decline and impending fall of America’s global empire is the single most important fact of contemporary world politics. That’s even more true now. As we move deeper into decline, the gap between what the United States used to be able to do and what it can still do today is widening—but no one knows just how wide it is, much less which possibilities have fallen into the gap and which remain on firm ground. Everyone in the world, from Donald Trump in his gold-plated bathtub to the poorest of the poor in their teeming Third World slums, is scrambling to deal with a situation that with each passing day has more resemblance to a crapshoot at long odds. In all probability, some of the most crucial events in the year ahead will be the product of desperate gambles set in motion at three in the morning in response to fragmentary data about a situation too complex for anybody to understand or control.

My first prediction for the new year, therefore, is that one of the biggest stories of the year will be an event that nobody has predicted. Do I know what it is? I’m not even going to guess. In Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s useful phrase, we can expect at least one Godzilla-sized “black swan” event to dominate headlines and shake what little faith the world still has in rational planning.

That said, even in a time of rising uncertainties, some things can be predicted by paying attention to what’s happening now and comparing it to what happened the last half dozen times the same set of conditions put in an appearance. Let’s start with domestic politics here in the US.

As I write this, the Trump administration has been in office for just under a year, and as usual at this point for an administration with a first-time president, it’s just beginning to hit its stride. The tax bill just passed is a harbinger of things to come.  The giveaways to the rich that got nearly all the media attention are sideshows; the main event is the tax benefits it gave to Trump’s working class supporters,  the elimination of deductions that benefit the largely Democratic middle and upper middle class, the incentives it gave to US-based multinationals to bring overseas dollars home and invest them here, and—above all else—the abolition of the most hated part of Obamacare, the individual mandate that forced people who can’t afford health insurance to buy it anyway at whatever price the insurance industry wanted to charge.

That is to say, Trump did what successful US administrations always do, and handed out pork to his supporters at the expense of his rivals. That’s going to help shore up his base when it comes time for the 2018 elections, and if he manages to hand out more pork to his voter base between now and this coming November, the Democratic dream of a sweeping midterm victory that will leave Trump paralyzed in 2019 and 2020 will almost certainly go whistling down the wind.

That’s all the more likely in that the Democrats have handled their defeat in the 2016 elections very badly. When you lose—especially when you had the advantage going into the contest, and blew it anyway—the first and most essential  rule of survival is to figure out what you did wrong and stop doing it. Not only haven’t the Dems done this, many of them have responded with blind fury to the suggestion that they ought to learn anything from their failure, and insisted that their party has to keep doubling down on all the things that cost Hillary Clinton the White House.

Those aren’t the things Democrats like to blame for Clinton’s loss, by the way. What doomed Clinton’s campaign was her commitment to business as usual at a time when business as usual had become intolerable for a vast number of ordinary Americans. What catapulted Trump into the nomination, and then the White House, was the hope on the part of those same Americans that he might do something different. What happens now that Trump’s team and the Republican leadership in Congress have worked out their differences and started to get legislation passed will determine whether the voters who backed Trump in 2016 will stay with the GOP in 2018 and 2020. Unless the Democrats get a clue in a hurry, that’s likely to happen.

Overall, while there’s still plenty of room for uncertainty at this point, I’m going to call the 2018 Congressional elections as a tossup, with a few seats changing hands and maybe a very slight gain for one side or the other. This is one place to watch for black swans, though.

While you’re watching domestic US politics, by the way, keep an eye out for a massive sea change that’s under way this year, though it probably won’t have an impact for a few years yet: the absurdity of Christians in America supporting a political agenda that directly contradicts the teachings of Christ has begun to sink in, in a big way, among young American Protestants. The devil’s bargain by which the evangelical Protestant churches sold their souls to the Republican Party in exchange for political influence was never destined to have a long shelf life, and it’s starting to stink too strongly for a good many sensitive noses. Donald Trump, interestingly enough, seems to have been the bright orange straw that broke this particular camel’s back; a great many young evangelical Christians, watching their elders turn cheerleader for a man who’s a poster child for every one of the seven deadly sins, have had enough.

The Democratic Party as currently constituted is unlikely to benefit from the resulting defections, but then the Democratic Party as currently constituted is not long for this world. I expect the party to go through tectonic shifts as its current leadership either gets chucked out or ages out, and one of the current crop of outsiders does to it what Jeremy Corbyn’s doing to the Labour Party on the other side of the Atlantic—that is to say, turning it back into something like what it was before it became a pallid clone of its conservative rival. If that happens before 2020, and Trump fumbles badly enough, the new social evangelicals may become a massive force in US politics in the 2020 election; if not, and the Democrats go down to a humiliating defeat in 2020, the rise of the new social evangelicals will come immediately afterwards. One way or another, it’s going to stand a lot of the certainties of American politics on their heads.

Okay, let’s turn to foreign affairs. As already mentioned, the United States is a waning force,  trying to maintain a fingernail grip on the levels of global power while backing away from foreign commitments it can no longer afford. That backpedaling is already moving much faster than I would have predicted a few years back. The Russian intervention in Syria was the critical event here. Having embarrassed the Pentagon with an efficient win, the Russians are now reaping the benefits of victory, building permanent bases in Syria from which they can project power throughout the eastern Mediterranean.

Egypt, formerly a US ally of sorts, has quietly changed sides and leased several air bases to the Russians. Turkey, a member of NATO, seems to be headed the same direction. A decade ago the United States would have moved heaven and earth to stop these things from happening; now it merely blusters. The unrest being fomented in Iran as I write this is a temporary gimmick; a similar US-funded attempt at regime change was crushed easily in 2009, and the Iranian authorities can squash this one readily enough. My working guess is that it’s being done this time to try to bluff Iran into bringing some of its Revolutionary Guards units back from Syria, at least for a while, so the US special forces teams who have been stage-managing the Pentagon’s end of the Syrian rebel scene have time to extract themselves and cover their tracks adequately.

Elsewhere in the world, it’s the same song. The US is trying to carry out that most difficult of military operations, a staged retreat through hostile territory. That could blow up without warning, of course. For what it’s worth, I don’t expect the blow-up to come from America’s principal rivals, Russia, China, and Iran; they’ve displayed admirable patience, and for good reason; they know that they simply have to wait, taking precisely measured actions to shore up weak spots or to press their claims in narrowly defined areas, and they’ll get what they want once the US finishes its trip down history’s greased chute.

No, it’s the minor powers with regional ambitions that might decide to gamble that the US can no longer back up its threats. Faced with a direct attack on US interests, Trump will have to respond with as much force as America still has; what happens next depends on how deep the rot has extended through the US military, and on whether the other side has figured out how to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of a military machine that’s still basically designed to refight World War II. If the US military suffers a serious defeat at the hands of some other nation, all bets are off. (That was the central theme of my one venture into political-military thriller fiction, my 2014 novel Twilight’s Last Gleaming.) Otherwise, expect the US to bluster and threaten in an attempt to win breathing room for its retreat from empire. Black swans?  A constant possibility.

While we’re discussing foreign affairs, by the way, keep an eye on Saudi Arabia. One of the riskiest maneuvers in all of politics is the attempt by an absolute monarchy to modernize the economic system of its nation and still retain power.  That’s what King Louis XVI of France tried to do in the decades before 1789, what Tsar Nicholas of Russia tried to do in the decades before 1917, and what the Shah of Iran tried to do in the decades before 1978; I trust my readers know what happened to the monarchs in question. The current crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is trying to pull off the same trick right now. Will he and the House of Saud survive the experience?  An interesting question, which could set the Middle East aflame.

Okay, on to economics. Right at the moment it’s impossible to tell whether the cryptocurrency bubble is going to go into permanent slump or reinflate and head for the Moon. One way or another, expect the rise and fall of speculative bubbles to be a constant feature of the business pages all year. Partly that’s because the real economy of nonfinancial goods and services by and large no longer provides the kind of profits investors expect, and so a hallucinatory economy of paper wealth has leapt into being to meet the demand. Partly, though, there’s another factor.

For the last three years, while the US stock market has hit record highs, more money has been withdrawn from US stocks than has been put into them. In theory, that’s impossible. In practice, it shows that the stock market has stopped functioning as a measure of economic health and turned into an instrument of economic propaganda. Back in the day, the US government funded its deficits by selling Treasury bills to other nations, counting on the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency to keep the market brisk; when that stopped working, the Treasury started buying its own debt through intermediaries and stashing the debt in off-book subsidiaries in various corners of the world—yes, that’s the same gimmick that got Enron in trouble. Now it’s pretty clear that the same gimmick, or something very much like it, is also being used to prop up the stock market.

The usual prognosticators are predicting a stock market crash this year, the same one they’ve predicted (inaccurately) for nearly a decade now. It might happen, but the chances are against it, since hallucinations don’t need to obey the laws of gravity. The trend to watch, rather, is the increasing disconnection of the official economy from the actual state of economic affairs in the real world. Many years ago Bertram Gross predicted that economic indicators would turn into “economic vindicators” that said whatever the government wanted them to say. I think he’d be impressed to see just how enthusiastically the federal government has fulfilled his predictions.

What we’re seeing, in other words, is the transformation of the US economy into a Potemkin Village capitalism in which government largesse backed by Ponzi financing props up a thin imitation of prosperity over the top of spreading impoverishment. It’s not accidental that Elon Musk, one of the most highly touted of the new generation of capitalist grandees, runs all his businesses on government subsidies. Meanwhile, outside the narrowing circle of the official economy, the United States is rapidly becoming a Third World nation in which off-book employment and subsistence economics are increasingly the norm. I don’t expect any significant change in that picture this year, just a continuation of vapid cheerleading from the media and increasingly grim conditions in the real world. Black swans? Always a possibility but not, I think, a likely one.

The environment? That’s the big issue, of course, but it’s going to get nothing but lip service. We’re going to see more big storms, more big floods, more big fires, and the streets of Miami Beach and a hundred other low-lying coastal communities will fill a little deeper with salt water every time they get a high tide and an onshore wind, but nothing’s going to be done about it.  Oh, sure, the left will demand with a voice both loud and bold that somebody else, somewhere else, ought to use less carbon; the right will insist that the earth rests on the back of a giant turtle, if that’s what it takes to let them keep on claiming that anthropogenic climate change isn’t happening; and only a few of us out here on the fringes will do the one thing that can actually make a difference, and cut back sharply on our own carbon use in order to lead by example.

I expect to hear any number of predictions of impending environmental doom this year, and they’ll be wasted breath as usual; preachers, sacred and secular alike, have been trying to scare people into being good since long before Jonathan Edwards ranted about “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God,” and—ahem—it doesn’t work:  never has, never will. There are plenty of other ways that people concerned about the environment could help build a movement for change that might actually have an impact, but all of those ways start with activists embracing the changes they expect everyone else to embrace.  Since environmental activists by and large come from the privileged middle and upper middle classes of our society, and since most would sooner fry and eat their own fingers than accept a standard of living they associate with the despised poor, none of these promising options are going to be taken up. Instead, we’ll get more posturing, more loud pronouncements, more empty gestures, as the seas keep rising and the climate gets worse.

One way or another, we’re probably going to be facing a fair amount of rough sledding here in the USA over the year ahead, as our domestic politics remains frozen in gridlock, our foreign policy struggles to deal with the impacts of our accelerating decline, our economy devolves into nothing so straightforward as honest smoke and mirrors, and the environment that sustains us all tips further into sudden-reset territory. It’s going to be a dangerous year—and yes, that faint rhythmic noise you hear in the sky is either the wingbeats of a black swan or the sound of another flock of birds coming home to roost.

**********

Ecosophia by John Michael Greer



92 Comments on "A Dangerous Year"

  1. Davy on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 3:42 pm 

    Are you talking to yourself stalker? You stuck your nose in other peoples business so move along prick. You are irrelevant as far as I am concerned.

  2. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 4:17 pm 

    Greg

    Maybe every damn person in this world is scared of one another.

    -John Steinbeck

  3. Makati1 on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 6:01 pm 

    Greg, Tweedledee and Tweedledum will never change. They have such narrow minds, so well brainwashed, that they cannot see the real world. Their arrogance and immaturity gets in the way of any rational conversation.

    While I do not totally agree with Cloggie on all points, he does know the real history of Europe and the Wars. Not the exceptional/indispensable version shoved into the minds of most Americans. I have been using the internet to get a historical rewrite on my US education. A totally different picture if you get history from other sources and then use logic and experience to sift the pieces.

    American is a butchering, plundering, immoral and greedy country. The sooner it is neutered, the better.

  4. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 6:16 pm 

    Madkat

    You are backing up clogg who believes in renewable’s? LOL You are so dumb you dont even have an college degree yet you think you are smarter than all Americans. Because we are all just brainwashed and you have a perfectly clear mind..Just face it you lost your mind and bugged out. Now you regret it because you look like a nut to your whole family. And you are taking it out on the US.

  5. Makati1 on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 6:29 pm 

    MM, I also clarified …”While I do not totally agree with Cloggie on all points,” Do learn to comprehend what you read, Tweedledum.

  6. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 6:32 pm 

    Madkat

    How am I brainwashed? You never even give a reason why that is true. I think basically the entire OECD is collapses now.

  7. Makati1 on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 6:37 pm 

    ““Genocide by Prescription”: Drug Induced Death in America”

    “The white working class in the US has been decimated through an epidemic of ‘premature deaths’ – a bland term to cover-up the drop in life expectancy in this historically important demographic. There have been quiet studies and reports peripherally describing this trend – but their conclusions have not yet entered the national consciousness for reasons we will try to explore in this essay. Indeed this is the first time in the country’s ‘peacetime’ history that its traditional core productive sector has experienced such a dramatic demographic decline – and the epicenter is in the small towns and rural communities of the United States.”

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/genocide-by-prescription-drug-induced-death-in-america/5535449

    “There is a class basis for this veritable genocide by narcotics raging among white workers and the unemployed in the small towns and rural areas of American: it is the ‘perfect’ corporate solution to a surplus labor force.” Food for thought…

  8. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 6:49 pm 

    Madkat

    Does it make you feel better for seeing others in America dying young? You seem to get a lot of comfort off of others suffering.

  9. Makati1 on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:14 pm 

    MM, we live in the time and place we were born. We have no choice of the former, but we do have a choice in the latter. Every generation has to deal with the world they live in. The strong survive. The weak … don’t.

    The US has, and is, causing huge suffering and death to many millions around the world unnecessarily. The explosion of drug use in the US is blow-back, well deserved, from those adventures.

    Drug use is a choice. The consequences are fixed. Death comes to all of us, eventually. To the weak, sooner. To the strong, later. Nature has always culled the herd that way. We are not an exception.

  10. GregT on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:21 pm 

    Neither one of us “bugged out and left society” MM. Quite the opposite actually.

  11. Davy on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:22 pm 

    “The explosion of drug use in the US is blow-back, well deserved, from those adventures.”

    Explosion? sure mad kat. just more cherry picked hype. 1% increase is explosion? FRAUD

    “In 2013, an estimated 24.6 million Americans aged 12 or older—9.4 percent of the population—had used an illicit drug in the past month. This number is up from 8.3 percent in 2002. The increase mostly reflects a recent rise in use of marijuana, the most commonly used illicit drug. Marijuana use has increased since 2007.Jun 25, 2015”
    https://tinyurl.com/jh99p4o

  12. Davy on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:23 pm 

    “Drug use is a choice. The consequences are fixed. Death comes to all of us, eventually. To the weak, sooner. To the strong, later. Nature has always culled the herd that way. We are not an exception.”

    Big herd where you are at mad kat and at your age well what does that tell you.

  13. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:26 pm 

    Total World Debt Is Rising Nearly Three Times As Fast As Total Global Wealth
    https://srsroccoreport.com/total-world-debt-rising-nearly-three-times-fast-total-global-wealth/#comment-56324

  14. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:29 pm 

    We can no longer talk about reforming the system. The system is past reform. The wealth has been misallocated. The environmental destruction has been done. The irreversible climate change is happening. The energy supplies are dwindling. We are out of resources.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

  15. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:40 pm 

    Studies of mice populations indicate that when faced with overpopulation, many catastrophic events occurred. Such as the mothers abandoned their young, the birth rate plunged, homosexuality, mass violence, cannibalism, and lack of maternal functions. Studies revealed as the mice population densities reached a tipping point. Once reached, the population began to suffer a “spiritual death” and went down a “behavioral sink”. (Calhoun, 1962)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink

    http://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2428&context=open_access_etds

  16. GregT on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:46 pm 

    “We can no longer talk about reforming the system. The system is past reform.”

    Speak for yourself.

    “The wealth has been misallocated.”

    There is more to life than money.

    “The environmental destruction has been done.”

    The environment will recuperate.

    “The irreversible climate change is happening.”

    It is catastrophic runaway climate change that we need to worry about. The longer that MIS continues to function, the worse the consequences will be.

    “The energy supplies are dwindling.”

    Maybe in another hundred years.

    “We are out of resources.”

    We are nowhere even close to being out of resources.

    I thought you said you were smart MM? I’m not seeing anything in the above other than below average intelligence.

  17. Boat on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 7:51 pm 

    MM,

    You like mak have trouble reading charts and graphs. The world population is booming supported by energy growth combined with tech and efficiency. PS, these trends have been going on for some time.

  18. Makati1 on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 8:16 pm 

    Davy, you keep pounding on the numbers here when you do not recognize that the climate, economy and culture is nowhere like that in the wasteful US. You are comparing apples to carrots. Get an education.

  19. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:15 pm 

    Greg

    A hundred years..LOL

    As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil shortage coming as investments, oil discoveries drop
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia

    Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

    The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300342X

    Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254

    WORLD ECONOMIES IN TROUBLE: Middle East Oil Exports Lower Than 40 Years Ago
    https://srsroccoreport.com/world-economies-in-trouble-middle-east-oil-exports-lower-than-40-years-ago/

    Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790

    Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cuts
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion

    HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages ahead
    https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    Citigroup CEO Ed Morse warns of oil shortages coming as soon as 2018
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/citi-says-get-ready-for-an-oil-squeeze-than-an-opec-supply-surge

    World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns Goldman Sachs
    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Supply-Crunch-To-Lead-To-Oil-Price-Spike-By-2020s-Expert-Says.html

  20. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:16 pm 

    Greg

    A hundred years..LOL

    As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil shortage coming as investments, oil discoveries drop
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia

    Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

    The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300342X

    Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254

  21. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:17 pm 

    Greg

    A hundred years..LOL

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html

    HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages ahead
    https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html

    Citigroup CEO Ed Morse warns of oil shortages coming as soon as 2018
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/citi-says-get-ready-for-an-oil-squeeze-than-an-opec-supply-surge

    Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020
    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html

    Energy watchdog warns oil and electricity shortages could develop as investment falls
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/watchdog-warns-of-oil-and-electricity-shortages-as-investment-falls.html

    Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-brace-for-a-devastating-oil-shock-ahead-2017-07-03

  22. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:19 pm 

    Greg…100 years..Why would you even be here at peakoil.com if you really believed that?

    USA DOE Study: PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (Hirsch, 2005)
    https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

    USA GAO Study: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply. Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production
    http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

    Australian Government (Leaked) Study: concludes world peak oil around 2017
    https://web.archive.org/web/20170415190328/https://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/BITRE-Report-117-Oil_supply_trends-2009.pdf

    German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
    https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf

    UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

    University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)

    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117

  23. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:21 pm 

    Here are five peer reviewed scientific studies authored by top experts that prove beyond any reasonable doubt that global civilization will collapse within the next decade.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
    https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
    http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
    http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf
    http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse/
    The End of the Human Race will be that it will Eventually Die of Civilization –Ralph W Emerson

  24. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:32 pm 

    Greg

    Just look at total oil discoveries bro! We are using 10 barrels of oil for every one we discover. And society that burns through its assets at ten times it’s replacement will be broke very soon. This is just basic math.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

  25. GregT on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:53 pm 

    Oil is not the only source of energy available to mankind MM.

    Coal:
    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves

    Natural gas:
    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=58&t=8

    Oil:
    https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/287141/how-much-oil-is-left-in-the-earth

    There are far more than enough fossil fuels remaining for the human race to cause our own extinction, and we likely will do exactly that.

  26. GregT on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 9:58 pm 

    “The End of the Human Race will be that it will Eventually Die of Civilization –Ralph W Emerson”

    Agreed. The sooner that modern industrial civilization collapses, the better the long term outlook for the survivability of our species. (and most other life as we know it on the planet Earth)

  27. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:07 pm 

    Greg

    Coal and gas are peaking along with oil in the next decade. I already sent you this paper but you just ignore everything because you are to weak to handle the truth

    Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254

  28. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:09 pm 

    Greg

    Your sources LOL zacks.com…Do you know how stupid you look?

  29. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:12 pm 

    Greg

    The sooner the global society collapses the better? How dumb are you? You green groupies are insane..

  30. GregT on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:18 pm 

    “Coal and gas are peaking along with oil in the next decade. I already sent you this paper but you just ignore everything because you are to weak to handle the truth”

    I’m not the one who plans on putting a bullet in his brain when they do peak.

    And I’ve already read all of those papers that you keep linking to.

    “The sooner the global society collapses the better? How dumb are you?”

    The further into overshoot we go, the worse the consequences will be. It isn’t exactly rocket science MM.

    How dumb are YOU?

  31. GregT on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:23 pm 

    “Your sources LOL zacks.com…Do you know how stupid you look?”

    The info compiled came from BP, The EIA, The IEA, and the USGS.

    Do you know how stupid YOU look?

  32. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:44 pm 

    Greg

    I showed you the chart of oil discoveries from several different sources. I have show you numerous peer reviewed sources. I have showed you even the IEA and Saudi’s are warning about peak oil shortages coming soon. And a million other sources and you still deny them all.

  33. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:47 pm 

    Greg

    Zacks.com LOL

  34. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 10:49 pm 

    Greg

    Don’t worry once the oil runs short and society collapses. Goons will put a bullet in your brain. You were raised rich thanks to your wealthy father. And you are not hidden people know about where you are. And they will come to call when they are hungry and desperate. And they will have guns as well. Just remember “YOU CAN RUN BUT YOU CAN’T HIDE”

  35. Makati1 on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 11:06 pm 

    Greg, MM is an immature psycho obsessed with sex and zombies. A teenager mentality. Not even near the intelligence he claims to be.

  36. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 11:18 pm 

    Madkat

    No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness.

    – Aristotle

  37. MASTERMIND on Mon, 8th Jan 2018 11:18 pm 

    Madkat

    Unfortunately, however much we may deplore something, it does not stop being true.

    ― Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene

  38. Makati1 on Tue, 9th Jan 2018 12:44 am 

    Sorry Tweedledum. but intelligence is NOT a requirement for insanity. And using quotes from intelligent men proves nothing about yourself, except that you have no rational rebuttal.

    Denial of a truth doesn’t make it go away or change. Immaturity and a fixation on rape and zombies. Obvious to anyone here. Kill the messenger, hut the message remains.

  39. Makati1 on Tue, 9th Jan 2018 1:00 am 

    Failures in the US military tech arena seems to be growing…

    “On Sunday night at 8:00 p.m. EST, Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched the secretive Zuma satellite into space aboard its Falcon Heavy rocket from Cape Canaveral. However, less than a day later, the WSJ reports that the secretive spacecraft built by Northrop Grumman for the U.S. government military industrial complex, and worth billions “is presumed to be a total loss after it failed to reach orbit.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-08/highly-classified-spy-satellite-total-loss-after-spacex-mission-fails

    “According to the WSJ, “lawmakers and congressional staffers from the Senate and the House have been briefed about the botched mission.” Meanwhile, the secret payload—code-named Zuma and launched from Florida on board a Falcon 9 rocket—is believed to have plummeted back into the atmosphere because it didn’t separate as planned from the upper part of the rocket.”

    Even North Korea has managed to put two satellites in orbit and both cross over the US several times a day.

  40. MASTERMIND on Tue, 9th Jan 2018 1:59 am 

    Madkat

    Who cares it was a stupid mission. I dont know why you hate the US so much considering you lived here most of your life and have family here..You just want to be a rebel. It makes you feel good! Makes you feel tough! Because everyone knows gooks like you are not tough!

  41. Davy on Tue, 9th Jan 2018 3:44 am 

    “Failures in the US military tech arena seems to be growing…”

    Yea, kind of like the Chinese space station coming back to earth but unfortunately no one knows where it is going to crash land. How about that for Asian enginuity mad kat!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *