[pictishbroch]

Anyone see a pattern developing here??Wars are very often preceded by economic downturns.ww1 and ww2 spring to mind.Germany was up shit creek without a Mark before ww2.
I see similar things happening in the US.
Could it be that when people have are down to their last buck they are more inclined to march to the governments war beat?
The need for Oil ie energy is vital to a countries success.In fact money used to be based on the Gold standard nowadays however money is based on the AES os Access to Energy Standard.

What are the chances of a full blown World War taking place within the next 5 years say?

[vetusfirma]

If you believe (that they believe) that preemptive is better that reactive, than you know they won't wait.

Don't let the 'enemy' have time to see it coming and do their 'preps'.

To paraphrase, DO IT, DO IT NOW, HAVE MORE OIL!!!

[mos6507]

Don't let the 'enemy' have time to see it coming and do their 'preps'.

Unfortunately the international community doesn't work that way. They would rather countries take a mushroom cloud over a major city before it's considered acceptable to fight back.

[misterno]

Once Israel is involved with US Army's invasion of Iraq, then you will see how 3rd world war looks like. There are 1BN muslims in the world waiting for that day.

Add this the coming up PO which will make much much more expensive for US Army. I wonder where they will find all that oil. Maybe from oil fields in Iran?

Anyway you cut it, war is coming. This war coincided with oil rising all time high at the same time is not coincidence.

[Nickel]

Unfortunately the international community doesn't work that way. They would rather countries take a mushroom cloud over a major city before it's considered acceptable to fight back.

Thanks for the hyperbole. Of course, your point renders Japan as the only country on Earth for whom, according to your criteria, it would be acceptable to "fight back".

[Fishman]

War usually comes in surprising manner. It might be Russia vs the Ukraine starting things, or the ever popular Balkans pitting one group vs another, or two rice dependant coutries making a move somewhere. Don't assume it's the US.

[vetusfirma]

The problem now is that we have countries getting or trying to get nuclear weapons that have governments that scare everyone shitless. Syria and Libya don’t have programs any more but N Korea, Pakistan, Iran, and Israel are in the club. And they are run by fanatics. MAD does not work with fanatics.

[JPL]

The problem now is that we have countries getting or trying to get nuclear weapons that have governments that scare everyone shitless. Syria and Libya don’t have programs any more but N Korea, Pakistan, Iran, and Israel are in the club. And they are run by fanatics. MAD does not work with fanatics.

Anyone here that is old enough to remember MAD and the Cold War doesn't have to worry overmuch about WW3.

We shat our pants a long time ago and so the prospect of countries like N Korea being able to put a dozen or so wobbly missiles in the air at (say - I dunnow) 10 days notice iz not scary any more (sorry).

JP

[americandream]

Don't let the 'enemy' have time to see it coming and do their 'preps'.

Unfortunately the international community doesn't work that way. They would rather countries take a mushroom cloud over a major city before it's considered acceptable to fight back.

The Germans took pre-emptive action in defence of the Fatherland and look at what happened. 6 million toasted Jews.

Pre-emption is attractive in theory except when in the hands of madmen. Hence the reluctance to sanction it.

[vetusfirma]

The problem now is that we have countries getting or trying to get nuclear weapons that have governments that scare everyone shitless. Syria and Libya don’t have programs any more but N Korea, Pakistan, Iran, and Israel are in the club. And they are run by fanatics. MAD does not work with fanatics.

Anyone here that is old enough to remember MAD and the Cold War doesn't have to worry overmuch about WW3.

We shat our pants a long time ago and so the prospect of countries like N Korea being able to put a dozen or so wobbly missiles in the air at (say - I dunnow) 10 days notice iz not scary any more (sorry).

JP

In the early 60's(yes I know) we had a air raid siren(that's what they were called, not tornado sirens) about 100' behind the house. More than once I was in the back yard getting some rays, on the first Wednesday of the month, and had the shineola scared out'a me. Alway thought the world was going to end in a nuke war. Then when the USSR fell, and blue bird quit flying, I thought we were safe at last......Guess I was wrong.

[vetusfirma]

Pre-emption is attractive in theory except when in the hands of madmen. Hence the reluctance to sanction it.

But that is exactly what we have, Madmen with nukes. DUH.......

[Kristen]

If anything, the U.S. will be cut off. With 20 percent demand eliminated, prices would collapse.

[JPL]

In the early 60's(yes I know) we had a air raid siren(that's what they were called, not tornado sirens) about 100' behind the house. More than once I was in the back yard getting some rays, on the first Wednesday of the month, and had the shineola scared out'a me. Alway thought the world was going to end in a nuke war. Then when the USSR fell, and blue bird quit flying, I thought we were safe at last......Guess I was wrong.

Ah, a fellow CW vet. So you remember how the Russians were about to take over the world? Waddalacrap! And we all fell for it, as well... Worked for a while though, didn't it?

JP

[americandream]

Pre-emption is attractive in theory except when in the hands of madmen. Hence the reluctance to sanction it.

But that is exactly what we have, Madmen with nukes. DUH.......

That is your opinion.

I may well say that the American appetite for the resources of other countries is perhaps a malady requiring treatment. I may also argue that the Israeli paranoia over anti-semitism in the Middle East when it was in fact it was Europe that massacred them in numbers, is another paranoia. I may even go so far as to add that Islamic belief is a symptom of an infantile malady requiring treatement.

However, I have no reason to believe that any of the above named three constitute rational specimens. Hence, I am glad for what restraints we may have over these enfeebled characters, little as they are and archaic as they may be, harkening back to a day when reason was valued.

[pictishbroch]

The Cold war was IMHO mostly propaganda.Two giants jostling for supremacy.The US won that one,however ww3 will be more serious stuff based on reality.That reality is Energy and its easy access(combined with lunatic/fanatics in power)

The nightmare scenario would be say Israel attacking Irans Nuclear plant.Iran would retaliate with a massive missile attack on Israel.Israel would panic and hit Iran with a Nuke,Russia and China would get pissed and flatten Israel.The US would get pissed and attack Russia and China who would likewise Send a few dozen Topol-M SS-27 Missile ICBM over to the US.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hesaGoYfyV8

The good news would be that it would be over in a relatively short period.The destructive nature and the psychic shock to humanity would facilitate the collapse of the world economic system overnight.

That would be a worse case scenario.We couldhave a watered down version of the above.
An old Chinese saying is that "if all you have is a hammer ,everything becomes a nail"

[vetusfirma]

The Cold war was IMHO mostly propaganda.Two giants jostling for supremacy.The US won that one,however ww3 will be more serious stuff based on reality.That reality is Energy and its easy access(combined with lunatic/fanatics in power)

The nightmare scenario would be say Israel attacking Irans Nuclear plant.Iran would retaliate with a massive missile attack on Israel.Israel would panic and hit Iran with a Nuke,Russia and China would get pissed and flatten Israel.The US would get pissed and attack Russia and China who would likewise Send a few dozen Topol-M SS-27 Missile ICBM over to the US.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hesaGoYfyV8

The good news would be that it would be over in a relatively short period.The destructive nature and the psychic shock to humanity would facilitate the collapse of the world economic system overnight.

That would be a worse case scenario.We couldhave a watered down version of the above.
An old Chinese saying is that "if all you have is a hammer ,everything becomes a nail"

You are assuming that the Israeli (Arrow)and US (Patriot)anti-missile defense is ineffective. Israel will not be struck by Iran directly. Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas will be told to attack Israel. Iran will try and close the straights of Hormuz, and the US will try and even might stop them from taking any effective action. But we will engage Iran, and then complete the work of the Israeli's by closing the doors on the underground nuke sites, using conventional weapons. We will setup no fly zones and patrol thoes areas to ensure the doors stay closed. We will roll out what ever subversive group we have set up in Iran and start a rebellion, freeze all their assets world wide, and promise China they will get all the oil they want. The Russians will scream, but they can't do much power projection now adays, so they will just do what they can to help Iran. They have a common border, so the land routes will be open. Congress has already proposed that we blockade Iran, so thats done. and O'bama has said the would 'do anything, anything, to protect Israel', so the opposition party should go along.

All that and no nuke war. Not the end of the world like everyone wants, but a likely scenario.

[pictishbroch]

You are assuming that the Israeli (Arrow)and US (Patriot)anti-missile defense is ineffective. Israel will not be struck by Iran directly. Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas will be told to attack Israel. Iran will try and close the straights of Hormuz, and the US will try and even might stop them from taking any effective action. But we will engage Iran, and then complete the work of the Israeli's by closing the doors on the underground nuke sites, using conventional weapons. We will setup no fly zones and patrol thoes areas to ensure the doors stay closed. We will roll out what ever subversive group we have set up in Iran and start a rebellion, freeze all their assets world wide, and promise China they will get all the oil they want. The Russians will scream, but they can't do much power projection now adays, so they will just do what they can to help Iran. They have a common border, so the land routes will be open. Congress has already proposed that we blockade Iran, so thats done. and O'bama has said the would 'do anything, anything, to protect Israel', so the opposition party should go along.

All that and no nuke war. Not the end of the world like everyone wants, but a likely scenario.
_________________

well that is another scenario.A far better one!I think you are wrong about Russia.
ww3 will be about the ability to deliver high yield nuclear weapons fast and effectively.Russia I think has the edge on the US in this dept.
Of course there will be no winners if it ever gets that far.

[Nickel]

We will roll out what ever subversive group we have set up in Iran and start a rebellion, freeze all their assets world wide, and promise China they will get all the oil they want.

This relies heavily on two things: 1) that the rest of the world agrees to go along with freezing Iran's assets... it's not automatic and even the US can't afford to stop trading with everyone who doesn't go along anymore -- especially if the EU broke ranks; and 2) it also counts on China swallowing the "you'll get all the oil you want, trust us" line. They saw what happened to European contracts in Iraq in 2003, after all. It's not out of the question that an attack on Iran could be the straw that breaks the back of China's indulgence of US unilateralism. They wouldn't have to dump much of their $1.7 trillion in holdings to set off panicked selling of US-denominated assets, which would have the likely effect of severely circumscribing US action abroad. If Russia hasn't much projection these days, the US really only has it because its creditors allow it to have it. China might decide an Iran independent of the tender mercies of Haliburton might be in their own best interests and act accordingly.

[pictishbroch]

one could say that ww3 has already started!a sort of stealth version using Oil as the WMD!,,yes folks bring other countries economies to their knees using Oil and Gas prices as your wmd whilst making sure you have a plentiful supply via Iraq Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Infact Gazprom has just announced a 22% increase in Gas prices in 2009 for Europe.
Energy Wars has begun.

[DefiledEngine]

MAD does not work with fanatics.

Really? Interestingly, concidering the US is the ONLY country to have used to nukes. Not NK, Iran etc. You think the US will try ordinary ground-based invasion on China, Russia or the greater part of the middle east once conflict over the last oil increases? When they have nukes? It would be madness not to use them.