Writer doing story on Peak Oil

[AaronLL]

Hi all, as the subject says, I'm a writer -- a grad student in journalism -- working on an article on peak oil. I'd like to pose a couple of questions to the PO community on this board:

1. How did you first learn about peak oil? Was there one author, book, movie, or piece of information that was the most powerful?
2. What actions have you taken as a result -- how has your life changed?

I've been working on this article for a few weeks now, and I've been asked several times if I'm planning to write a story about kooky survivalists hiding out in bunkers. The answer is no. If I thought there was nothing to peak oil, I wouldn't be interested. But most people think economic growth can continue indefinitely and society will continue to run smoothly, whereas peakists don't. This is what interests me: what makes people go against that "consensus"?

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Aaron

[seahorse3]

Became interested as a result of 9-11. I was trying to understand ME issues, read "resource wars" by Michael Klare then his follow-up "blood and oil." Those books put me onto the issue of PO. I went from being a typical energy ignorant American to now having a fundamental understanding of the role oil plays I'm everything we do - bottom line we can't grow world GDP until we can increase world oil production and we've been on a plateau since 2005- so we have this "unexplained" recession, at least to people that are PO ignorant or who don't subscribe to the theory. Klare's book explains why we support dictators in SA but not in Iraq, basically if you are not friendly we will export some democracy your way. There are some other forums you may want to poll like silentcountry and malthusia.com

[kublikhan]

1. How did you first learn about peak oil? Was there one author, book, movie, or piece of information that was the most powerful?
2. What actions have you taken as a result -- how has your life changed?

1. I started looking for answers on why gasoline prices were rising so much. It did not take long for me to come across the topic of peak oil. At first I thought it was some kind of end of the world cult, there were alot of 'build a bomb shelter' types and predictions of cannibalism and the like. I almost wrote it off. But I decided there was something to it and picked up the book: The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel, by Stephen Leeb

The book convinced me that peak oil was real. When I first loaned the book to my parents, they thought I and the author were crazy. Then oil passed $100. Then $125. Then approached $150. All of a sudden, we did not look so crazy anymore.

2. I implemented the suggestions in the book, got out of financial stocks and into gold and oil stocks. It turned out to be really good advice. The suggestions allowed me to avoid the fallout in financial stocks and capitalize on the gains in gold and oil stocks. We also postponed "trading up", and decided to remain in our current small house, small car, and live frugally. On a day to day basis, our life has not changed dramatically. Although our frugal lifestyle was a lifesaver after my wife was laid off from her job due to the recession. We were able to maintain our current lifestyle on just one income.

[AgentR11]

1) Chasing AGW folks that thought the problem was fixable. I just love tormenting them. Sorry, never claimed to be benevolent.
2) Live small. Be content. And now that things are starting to go bump... have resumed hard physical training (have to be careful though... aging is also, not benevolent) PT is a funny thing, when you need the result most, you can't get it. Must be acquired well before the need arises. Once the need is real, all you can do is concentrate on rest, recuperation, and preservation.

[MD]

1. How did you first learn about peak oil? Was there one author, book, movie, or piece of information that was the most powerful?
2. What actions have you taken as a result -- how has your life changed?

Aaron

1. 1973, but it wasn't called that then. I put it out of mind until 2005 when the topic reemerged in a casual conversation with a colleague.

2. My entire lifestyle has changed. I've gone from a 50 mile commute in education with a high energy household to a zero mile commute in energy with a low energy household.

Key word being energy, of course...

[PrestonSturges]

Looking at the dates when most people on this site signed up, obviously it was mostly during the Bush years. 9/11 emphasized our global vulnerability, Katrina demonstrated the federal governments almost complete indifference, the 2008 financial crisis showed how volatile oil prices are.

Much of the public showed an almost complete lack of awareness going into the 2008 financial crisis. I put my money in Europe then into cash and only lost 1%. I recall one day at work where I remarked that oil had gone up $10 in one day, and all I got was strange looks.

It was about in 2005 that i got The Fear about our long term economic prospects because projections showed the deficit exploding over the next decade, even though the White House declared almost daily that the deficit was "going down" in some relative sense. I put in 500 gallons of rainwater collection and gradually accumulated about 16 fruit trees that I water with the rainwater. I also bought good quality oil lamps, and I have several gallons of fuel. I have a kerosene heater for emergencies, and gas logs. This is not frivolous because this area has gone weeks without power from hurricanes, and it has gone weeks without power from an ice storm. I also decided to really tighten our belts, at that point when everyone else was partying with their savings.

We up-armored in weaponry in 2008, at least in part because of the ever increasing levels of overtly (if not actually cliched) Fascist rhetoric in the US (you know who are you are ), and we adopted a little guard dog. We have a few months of food staples on hand, and we picked a couple hundred pieces of fruit this year. Next year we'll experiment with canning and preserving.

Since 2008, things have calmed down quite a bit. But being "prepared" is just good sense considering how much havoc corporations and employers can rain down on anyone's personal life these days. I took business classes and I am starting my own business because most companies are mismanaged nightmares, and the GOP is pursuing a strategy of economic sabotage.

[WildRose]

I quite accidentally learned about Peak Oil when I found a technocracy pamphlet while visiting my dad in hospital in 2005. I read the pamphlet, followed some links cited there, which led me to The Oil Drum, Matt Savinar's site and this site. For the next year, I read lots of material on the subject and then joined this forum.

For quite some time before learning about the concept of peak oil, I had the gnawing feeling that there was just too much excess in our way of life, that we would need to make some drastic changes for a more sustainable earth. And, because I've been an outdoors enthusiast all my life, the environmental issues became a strong focus for me as well.

I have learned to grow vegetables over the past several years, planted a raspberry patch and apple tree, done repairs to the home I share with my hubby and kids and learned to live more practically and efficiently. I'm really not focused on material things like I was as a young adult; now I just tend to shop for what's needed. Staying healthy and strong is important to me and my family, so we work at it.

In the future, I'd like to see more transition to renewable energy in North America, to follow the lead of some European countries. I'd also be interested to see what the real economy would look like, one with very little personal debt.

[Pops]

Hey Aaron, glad you made it over.

We have every type of peaker here, the whole gamut of "Transistionist" types from the "Hedgers" to the "Homesteaders", there are "Overnighters" too though probably not as many as other forums and even a few who understand the situation but don't see it as a problem.

[PrestonSturges]

Notice how much corporate pushback there is against the idea of peak oil? I'm curious to see how much of the public is willing to buy into the idea that America is the next Saudi Arabia even though gas is $3.50. The Chevron commercials are cheerful, but the subtext is that the lost tribal paradise of happy motoring has been stolen by "them."

Of course Peak Oil is not the only form of doomerism out there. Global warming is discussed here, and there are people who are very very concerned about effects that will have a serious on impact on people who are now children. And there are also the global warming skeptics who generally post links to completely irrelevant material which they claim crushes the myth of global warming, which is the general practice. Just when you think they might be making a point, something blatantly false spoils it. But most people who are gardening expect to have to adapt to more heat and drought, and they believe that these changes are already visible.

Overall the general level of conspiracy theories peak oil folks are pretty low. Paying attention to macoreconomics means you don't need to invoke the Illuminauti to explain the price of bread. Also, peak oil doesn't overlap that much with the traditional survivalists who are often paranoid and extremely racist. Many traditional survivalists seem to picture themselves in the final scenes for "Birth Of A Nation," where the heavily armed whites are barricaded in a log cabin.

[anador]

I just graduated from Architecture school, and have been pushing my family to change our lifestyle

1. I first came across the ideas behind peak oil when I read Jim Kunstler's "the long emergency"
I got it for christmas one year and read it in a day.

2. My family and I have begun to change small things in our lifestyle. We own a heard of 20 or so beef cattle, herefords, that can also be used for milk if necessary. We own a dozen chickens, and maintain a small seasonable vegetable garden. We heat our house and water using a central wood fired boiler, and we are currently building a backup woodgas power generator to run our well pumps, air handler, and a refrigerator.

On a personal note, I work at an Urban Planning firm that accepts peak oil as fact, and has been designing towns with resilient characteristics when faced with a decreasing energy paradigm. Since I cant simply go home and convert my family's home, I am working to gain all the relevant traditional construction knowledge I can while I work far from home.

[Schadenfreude]

Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions & Myths by Stephen Gorelick

Download a PDF copy at the link. Best book I ever read on the subject.

The Hubbert Peak Oil Theory is juxtaposed with the counter-theory. The reader can make up his own mind about the urgency of the problem.

[Bruce_S]

Hi all, as the subject says, I'm a writer -- a grad student in journalism -- working on an article on peak oil.

How objective a story do you plan to write? And are you more interested in the idea itself, or what happens to those who buy into it? And why?

[Bruce_S]

Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions & Myths by Stephen Gorelick

Download a PDF copy at the link. Best book I ever read on the subject.

Certainly the best referenced I have ever seen as well.

[PrestonSturges]

It's funny to read survivalists talk about peak oil folks because they imagine some sort of secular apocalypse (often with racial overtones) that they will escape by piling into an SUV and driving into the wilderness. Many of them have figured out the shortcoming of this plan and are actually moving to rural areas. But many of them are still locked into the zombie apocalypse fantasy of constant life under siege, and they scoff at the idea of peak oil ideas of sustainable living in place. Peak oil people are far less apocalyptic and see a decline that might feature a series of bad jolts, but recognize that what we call a disaster is merely what people in other countries would call Thursday. For people in the least developed parts of the world, peak oil might completely escape their notice.

[Cog]

My discovery of peak oil and overshoot was entirely accidental. Back in 2006, we had a rather severe ice storm and was without power for a couple of days. At that point I realized, that I was woefully unprepared for any sort of stoppage to basic services. That led me to prepping and survival and finally to researching long term trends in energy production.

Becoming peak oil aware was at first a rather depressing and humbling experience. No cotton candy at the end of this particular ride. But I realized that there was ways to live an satisfying life without all the baggage of rampant consumerism. I'm actually a great deal happier now having dumped a lot of things and ideas that never quite made me fulfilled.

[ian807]

Before you put finger to keyboard, please purchase and read the books referenced here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil

This is not a story you can tell without numbers. You don't need many, but you need some.

The other one you need to read is this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed

Take both books, add them together, toss in a few jiggers of logic and take it straight. The effects are quite startling and the hangover never quite disappears. Still, I expect you won't regret it.

[Bruce_S]

There are many types of Doomer porn available which can be provided upon request. If you are interested in a balanced view on the topic, don't forget these two as well.

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitl ... 95487.html

http://www.amazon.com/Battle-Barrels-My ... 1846680123

[AgentR11]

Addenda: I kinda left out a key thing in my approach to all this, a fundamental commandment.

Thou shalt not spend any money that goes towards the purveyor's of doom.
It is a commandment that I have obeyed completely.

Inter-library loan is an incredible tool. Use it.

[ian807]

There are many types of Doomer porn available which can be provided upon request. If you are interested in a balanced view on the topic, don't forget these two as well.

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitl ... 95487.html

http://www.amazon.com/Battle-Barrels-My ... 1846680123

And remember, there's "balanced" and there's "accurate." They aren't necessarily the same. F'rinstance, the "balanced" view of human origins involves an invisible, omniscient superbeing with magical powers, a bad temper and a penchant for interfering in the lives of middle eastern sheepherders. The verifiably correct view based on evidence... not so much.

[Tanada]

I first learned about Peak Oil under other names in 1982, then I forgot all about it until 2005 when I was researching a writing project on Bio-Diesel and found this site by accident through a Google search.

As a student of history I know that civilizations can change course rapidly but I have never been a rapid crash doomer. The decline and fall of a civilization usually, but not always, takes decades. Rome took several centuries of decline to fall completely apart in the West. Contrary example the Maya civilization fell apart in what appears to have been three or four years. The majority of cultures however take many years of decline before they fall into lawlessness like you see in bad movies from Hollywood. No matter who is on top of the cultural pyramid it is in their best interest to keep things going just as long as they can for their own benefit.