[onlooker]

It's about to kick off. Breaking news

Saudi Arabia says it has broken off diplomatic ties with Iran, amid a row over the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir was speaking after demonstrators had stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and 46 others were executed on Saturday. Saudi Arabia found them guilty of "terrorism". Mr Jubeir said that all Iranian diplomats must leave Saudi Arabia within 48 hours.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35217328

Fill up your tanks while it's cheap !!
Gas

Oh boy it looks like the big boys are upping the ante. Now lets see what going to happen on the military front.

[Newfie]

Was talking about this with the Wife and some others yesterday before we heard the SA and Iran news.

I will freely admit to being utterly baffled by the US posture in the ME and by the interplay between all the various countries and sects.

Here is my simple minded analysis.

The US is pushing out ff, that hurts SA because it lowers our imports.
The world is in a bit of a recession further hurting SA.
The effect on price is magnified due to SA's need to keep cash coming in. They can't slow production because that would hurt their wallet and they want to keep the folks at home happy, no Arab Spring in SA. SA imports almost 100% of its food.
Their need to keep producing pushes the price down further.
The Iran nuclear deal means Iranian oil will come on the market soon, hurting prices and pushing SA.
The US lifted the export ban, more oil on the market, more hurt for SA.

Is this all correct? If so is it intentional? Are we trying to cause further disruption in SA? Maybe a civil war there?

Remedies? War in the region that destroies wells and production facilities, which then restricts demand would push the price of oil up.

But SA would need to be on the wining side of such war.

SA per capita arms are the largest in the world, almost $7,000. Singapore is at $2,385 and the US and Israel are about even at $1,870 ish. Why?

At this juncture it would seem SA may have a very good reason to go to war, to have a reason to make a quick first strike that removes oil producing rivals.

Comments on these thoughts?

[Pops]

All of our supposed allies are causing trouble and are pushing toward a regional war. We are playing both sides against the middle and both sides are playing us. Everyone is against us because we choose one devil over the other instead of standing up for justice and human rights. It's all a big Sunni/Shia mess that we are caught up in and all we do is try to find a balance with no solution to anything.[/list]

That's good Pete. I don't get all the religious ins and outs but I do get that they have all at some point been client states of either US or RU and we have armed them up good.

But yeah Gas, looking increasingly tense.

[Pops]

I think I posted something along this line earlier but here is another version

http://observer.com/2015/12/coalition-of-the-drilling-oil-fuels-the-saudi-led-war-against-isis/

There is a story behind the story of Saudi Arabia’s gathering 34 countries to form a coalition to fight ISIS.

The first item to note is that while all 33 countries that came to Riyadh were all Muslim, they were not all Arab. Next, we must pay attention to those who were not invited. Saudi Arabia invited Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority, but excluded Iran, Hamas and Iraq. And that is a clue to the purpose and the vision of this Saudi led group.

The coalition versus ISIS intends to also hamper and destroy Iranian hegemony. In the process, the initiative has a mission to wound several other Saudi foes, including, but not limited to, Syria’s Assad, Russia, Hezbollah and Iraq. The Saudis plan to punish the United States of America as well for handing Iran legitimacy with its recent nuclear deal.

The Saudis have largely given up on the United States. The final nail in the coffin of U.S.-Saudi relations came when Washington signed the nuclear deal, thereby bringing Iran back into the community of nations and even permitting them nuclear status in 15 years. That pact profoundly insulted and threatened the Saudis, a Sunni nation. The nuclear deal the United States both empowered and emboldened the mortal enemy of Saudi Arabia.

The balance in the region is slowly shifting and Saudi Arabia hopes to stop Iran’s ascent.

Let's not forget that there is a new rooster in the royal henhouse in KSA. Anyone who's ever worked for a boss who is replaced knows the new guy wants to make his mark.

[AgentR11]

If I were a believer in our guys actually planning something, to me it would look like we attempted to break Russia to crash their production, but it turns out Russians elect Putin because Putin is exactly what most Russians want in a president... So no revolution. No drop in Russian production, and in fact, Russian exports were boosted a bit.

So, we move to S.A. From what I gather, we don't really import that much oil from S.A, more from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. So screwing them up would probably hurt Chinese refiners more than US refiners, and would take their oil off the market, thus allowing the price to recover and our frackers get back to pumping the economic bubble up some more.

That said, I don't think our guys could manage to plan a birthday party. Rather, this is just ancient inter denominational fighting ready to come to a head again. The real question from my point of view is whether Russia will act as an enabler to Iran or whether they'll act as a damp rag on the fire. China does import S.A. oil; and Russia isn't ready to replace S.A.->China oil sales yet; not to mention Iran hasn't purchased many S300+ systems, and would probably like to spend a year or three post sanction buying gear and selling oil before doing anything more intense than ground forces in Syria.

WW III seems to be proceeding along quite nicely for the warmongers.

[onlooker]

It is all about destabilizing the ME and pitting everyone against everyone so as to justify a military presence and also to garner allies who can at a moments notice be converted to enemies as deemed convenient. One should not be surprised as bribes and threats have been around since history began and the powerful always employ them.

[ennui2]

Is this all correct? If so is it intentional? Are we trying to cause further disruption in SA? Maybe a civil war there?

No. It's a matter of the US trying to thread the needle of its foreign policy and every little thing it does causing downstream impacts due to the web of alliances and conflicts. You try to solve one potential cause of WWIII (Iran) and it pisses off SA. There's nothing irrational or particularly reckless about what the US is doing. It's just about the ME being even more of a powderkeg than usual of late.

It is all about destabilizing the ME and pitting everyone against everyone so as to justify a military presence...

Typical "I hate US foreign policy" tinfoil. You have no way of knowing that. It's about trying to create an easy-to-digest cartoonish mustache-twisting villain instead of realizing how complex the situation really is.

[onlooker]

Is is not about "knowing", it is about deducing from all the available facts and using some common sense and logic.

[ennui2]

Now lets see what going to happen on the military front.

My prediction--nothing but saber rattling that will trail off after a while, just like earlier situations like this over in, let's say, North Korea, something that was met with equal amounts of glee by posters here.

Is is not about "knowing", it is about deducing from all the available facts and using some common sense and logic.

BS. You have no supernatural knowledge of US "intent". Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. It's just Iran Cable Cut part XIII.

[SeaGypsy]

I'm thinking ELM, drought & smart phones. Think how easy it would be living in a desert shit hole & running out of resources to think of either picking a fight or running away. Germany is still promoting the people smuggling business big time. Everyone everywhere has a Facebook friend living it large in the west. In the ME everyone has a friend with a suicide vest as well. The stability of the ME was always fake anyhow back to partition. Now a rising middle class has started to taste the downslope & dry sand is less palatable than blood, or getting out while the getting is good. One way or the other the MENA is becoming a hell zone. The Saudi royals look to be preferring a big fight to death by attrition. What a hateworthy hole.

[GregT]

Is is not about "knowing", it is about deducing from all the available facts and using some common sense and logic.

Common sense (and logic) are not at all common onlooker, and some refuse to even consider the available facts. Human beings do not generally act in a rational manner, and are largely driven by their emotions. Thus the constant "tin-foil hatter" accusations. Everything that doesn't jive with one's narrow worldview must be wrong, and there is no reason to explore any further. Denial is one of the most powerful emotional human traits. It is also a very good reason why democracy will never work.

[onlooker]

Absolutely right Greg, and knowing this quite some time ago I have tried to mold my character to not fall into these common human character flaws. It has always intrigued me watching the original Star Trek how Spock and Vulcans eliminated emotions knowing how corrosive they can be to rationale and effective thinking. Anyway I veer from the topic. But yes the Oil War and the War on Terror have all an origin that goes way back and that can easily be deduced by anyone who even briefly reads up on this.

[GregT]

Expect retaliations (whether real or false flag) to be blamed on Iran, the next, and final target for Middle-Eastern destabilization.

As planned.

[ennui2]

Human beings do not generally act in a rational manner, and are largely driven by their emotions. Thus the constant "tin-foil hatter" accusations.

You have it backwards. Tinfoil hats are based on emotions. What kind of tone of voice do you normally hear out of a schizophrenic on a subway platform? Anger. It's the sound of errant neurons battling other errant neurons.

People are comforted when they have a target for their anger, a target for their blame. This comes in the form of boilerplate like "all is going according to plan" and "false flag".

The reason I keep talking about "Iran Cable Cut" is that the rhetoric here matches back then. Cables break because of a trawler and people accuse the US of intentionally disrupting the Iranian oil bourse. That's how it is. Events are always perceived as being some grand move on a chessboard orchestrated in order for the US or the west to knock off their supposed enemies and capture the spoils like a game of Risk. Unless you have actual evidence (beyond Alex Jones and Global Research) it's...the sound of errant neurons battling other errant neurons.

[GregT]

Events are always perceived as being some grand move on a chessboard orchestrated in order for the US or the west to knock off their supposed enemies and capture the spoils like a game of Risk.

Throughout history, that is exactly what human beings have always done. Other than much larger spoils, and much more powerful weapons, this time is no different.

[SeaGypsy]

The US & others have been tinkering so long in the zone it is a big mystery what the place would be like had they not, & the suggestion there would be peace if left alone- maybe, after several genocides. There is good argument for supporting dissent in these countries, even stimulating it. However the precedents suggest it may be better to work on humanizing the evil despots in place. Meanwhile, the people are restless, the leadership nervous & the Wahabis are losing the plot that us westerners haven't started genociding Muslims to justify their grand vision of holy war.

[Shaved Monkey]

Holy Wars havent stopped since the Crusades
Just add Oil, Capitalism and Zionism

[Keith_McClary]

Events are always perceived as being some grand move on a chessboard orchestrated in order for the US or the west to knock off their supposed enemies and capture the spoils like a game of Risk. Unless you have actual evidence (beyond Alex Jones and Global Research) it's...the sound of errant neurons battling other errant neurons.

Right, the US is just over there to give Navy sailors a nice tropical cruise.