[Pops]

So a Rebel Without a Clue!

I think that applies
lol

[Pops]

Just read this:

“However, robust evidence shows that people systematically overestimate the probability of positive future contingencies, and underestimate the probability of negative ones — only those who are depressed or dysphoric come to accurate assessments.”
― Daniel Nettle

[joewp]

Just read this:

“However, robust evidence shows that people systematically overestimate the probability of positive future contingencies, and underestimate the probability of negative ones — only those who are depressed or dysphoric or assess all the evidence rationally come to accurate assessments.”
― Daniel Nettle

I had to fix that before I agreed to it, Pops.

Personally, I think a rational assessment of homo sapiens immediate future (geologically speaking) can lead you to depression or dysphoria. And that's when you start worshiping the Overshoot Predator, because at least in her hands you can see a human society possibly emerge that codifies population control and living within its means, because it's certainly not going to happen with BAU.

[Graeme]

Heavy consumption puts planet in overdraft

Today is Earth Overshoot Day. From now until the end of the year, the planet is operating in the red.

From now on, the earth is now unable to replenish the natural resources which humans demand from it. In 2014, it has taken eight months for humanity to reach this stage – and it gets earlier each year.

The deficit arises from depleted fish stocks, trees and more carbon dioxide being emitted into the atmosphere than can be absorbed back into the earth. It is the latter that contributes most to humanity’s vast ecological overspending.

“Global overshoot is becoming a defining challenge of the 21st century. It is both an ecological and an economic problem,” said Mathis Wackernagel, president of Global Footprint Network, which calculates the deficit. “Countries with resource deficits and low income are exceptionally vulnerable.”

According to the group, more than 1.5 Earths would be required to sustain current consumption levels. The way consumption is increasing, this would go up to three planets before mid-century – a level they say may be “physically unfeasible”.

rtcc

[Newfie]

From that you could make the argument we are our own overshoot predator.

[dohboi]

This may be a good case study in how the OP operates:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/13.7/2014/08/1 ... -collapsed

Lessons From The Last Time Civilization Collapsed

(Review of Eric H. Cline's: 1177BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed.)

[Pops]

"Man has solved his problems," Old Jay went on. "Predators he has removed from the earth; heat and cold he has turned aside; communicable disease he has practically eliminated. The old live on, the young do not die. The best wars can't even balance the birth rate. There was a time when a small army could cut a population in half in a year. Starvation, typhus, plague, tuberculosis, were trusty weapons. A scratch with a spear point meant infection and death. Do you know what the incidence of death from battle wounds is today? One percent. A hundred years ago it was eighty percent. The population grows and the productivity of the earth decreases. In a foreseeable future we shall be smothered by our own numbers. Only birth control could save us, and that is one thing mankind is never going to practice."

"Broth-er!" said the patrón. "What makes you so damned happy about it?"

"It is a cosmic joke. Preoccupation with survival has set the stage for extinction."

Sweet Thursday, John Steinbeck (1954)

[dohboi]

"Preoccupation with survival has set the stage for extinction."

Awesome quote, Pops. And from 60 years ago. Leave it to Steinbeck. People have been seeing these things coming for a long time.

[joewp]

In the Oceans and the Seas thread, Keith posted this article about the garbage gyres and all the plastic in them.
In that article was this:

Whether diphenyls and bispherol, virtually all commercially available plastics leach synthetic estrogens, and may be contributing to a host of health problems. Indeed, it’s already happening. One’s grandfather’s penis was, on average, two centimeters longer; our grandmothers hit puberty at age 17; their granddaughters at age 12: Estrogen-saturated parody adults. A final joke before extinction. Sperm counts are down 50 percent since the 1950s. “In another 50 years we may not be able to reproduce,” Ebbesmeyer said.

In the endgame, we’ll be a race of sexed-up tweener girls and sterile dudes with little dicks wandering baffled through a rubbish-filled world. Then those poor mismatched souls will grow old and die. End of story.

Add synthetic estrogen to the list of Overshoot Predators. An insidious predator that looks like it may well get us before AGW or any peak resource.

And since we made all this plastic stuff, it does look like we're our own OP, Newfie.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-

Add synthetic estrogen to the list of Overshoot Predators. An insidious predator that looks like it may well get us before AGW or any peak resource.

And since we made all this plastic stuff, it does look like we're our own OP, Newfie.

Virtually all plastics have a petrochemical base, it's a self-correcting problem. If reproduction falls to a fraction of 1% of the present value, we might survive as a species on this ruined planet. Then as the synthetic hormones leaching out of the plastic waste taper off, our population would be limited by the ruined eco-system.

[Pops]

In the endgame, we’ll be a race of sexed-up tweener girls and sterile dudes with little dicks wandering baffled through a rubbish-filled world.

Once again ahead of my time, LOL

[Ibon]

"Preoccupation with survival has set the stage for extinction."

Awesome quote, Pops. And from 60 years ago. Leave it to Steinbeck. People have been seeing these things coming for a long time.

Wow, I bet I read that somewhere back in my teens and it incubated there for several decades contributing to the ideas started on this thread. I always enjoyed Steinbeck's books. Maybe it's time to re read him.

[Pops]

Beyond the fact that I grew up around the settings in many of his books, my folks were DBOs (Ditch Bank Okies) - essentially the Joads, albeit somewhat more fortunate because they made it through most of the depression on oil royalties and came out during the war. Those old family memories make me terrified of becoming a refugee even though I have hard time putting down roots. Reading Steinbeck is like picking at that fear.

On the topic, refugees are the prey.

[dohboi]

That's pretty heavy, Pops. What does "came out" mean in your context above "...came out during the war." Came out of poverty? Is that a common phrase?

[KaiserJeep]

Pops, we share an ancestral experience. My Grandparents had their farm dry up and blow away in the Dust Bowl, and fled Seminole, OK in an old black Ford Sedan. Then they lived in that car and an Army tent for several years before WW2, following the crops and work: I.e. they became true migrant farm labor, aka "Okies". My Father grew up on the road. They ended up in the SF Bay Area in 1941, and worked at the Naval Shipyard welding Liberty Ships, and were never homeless again. My Father joined the Merchant Marine at age 15, then the US Coast Guard at age 17 (his mother signed the papers for him both times). He retired from the USCG as an officer after 31.5 years in uniform - or 33.5 years if you counted his Merchant Marine time.

There were experiences on the road that my Grandparents never spoke of. Grapes of Wrath, indeed.

[Pops]

That's pretty heavy, Pops. What does "came out" mean in your context above "...came out during the war." Came out of poverty? Is that a common phrase?

Yeah, I regressed to a Californian for a minute I guess, LOL.
I meant, 'came out to California' during the war.

[dohboi]

Thanks for the clarification, Pops. I hadn't heard that expression used that way. Makes sense.

Back, grimly, on topic.

The OsP may have just gotten a huge boost from an Indian engineer recently back from West Africa (I know that there is a special ebola thread, but this is so potentially momentous that I think it is worth posting here as well):

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 59570.aspx

There may be other reasons, but I'm betting this guy is on the run because he has ebola. If he dies before they find him, they will have no way to track his contacts or know where he has been exactly. Most of those people he contacted will similarly be untrackable unless they turn themselves in. Since the early symptoms are essentially indistinguishable from a flu or from malaria (which is still endemic in throughout India except in the highest mountains), many will at first be treated at home or get no treatment at all.

There are over 2 billion people in South and Southeast Asia combined, many in crowded, poverty-stricken cities, ripe hunting grounds for the Predator.

ETA: I see now that this news story is three days old. Odd that there has been no more about it, one way or another.

[dohboi]

If anyone finds any news about this Indian dude possibly spreading ebola around India, please do post about it.

[Ibon]

If anyone finds any news about this Indian dude possibly spreading ebola around India, please do post about it.

I am following this. I have a daughter arriving in Nepal in 10 days and this is frightening.

[dohboi]

Yeah, the district he lives in and presumably escaped to is adjacent to Nepal, iirc. One advantage for that region is that malaria is relatively rare there, so people are not likely to mistake the ebola symptoms for malaria. Still, lots of poverty. I was surprised when I looked it up to see just how poor Nepalese are on average: 177 out of 195 on the CIA list, right next to Haiti!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... per_capita