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World oil reserves and future production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Giant oil fields and their importance for future production

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 08:28:48

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR).

In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.

http://www.energybulletin.net/27491.html
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 08:38:01

Haha!

I have that very dissertation (Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil) lying here at my desk, and will go to the defence of the doctoral thesis in a few days. The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 09:31:52

Starvid wrote:Haha!

I have that very dissertation (Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil) lying here at my desk, and will go to the defence of the doctoral thesis in a few days. The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.


Please post a link when you do. Where will you be publishing the defense?
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 09:54:36

The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.

So does RH deny the content and/or conclusions of this PhD paper?
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 10:21:01

Starvid wrote:Haha!

I have that very dissertation (Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil) lying here at my desk, and will go to the defence of the doctoral thesis in a few days. The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.


Is Chris Skrebowski aware of this thesis and how widely disseminated is it?
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 11:29:18

Newsseeker wrote:
Starvid wrote:Haha!

I have that very dissertation (Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil) lying here at my desk, and will go to the defence of the doctoral thesis in a few days. The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.


Please post a link when you do. Where will you be publishing the defense?
I don't know when it will be published, if it will be published at all. I am not sure what the routines look like.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 11:36:33

SoothSayer wrote:
The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.

So does RH deny the content and/or conclusions of this PhD paper?
No, in academic peer review you always have an opponent who is there to point out the eventual flaws. It's really a formality as in 99 % of all cases they have been ironed out before or they wouldn't bring it to the opponent.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 11:47:45

Newsseeker wrote:
Starvid wrote:Haha!

I have that very dissertation (Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil) lying here at my desk, and will go to the defence of the doctoral thesis in a few days. The opponent will be a certain Robert Hirsch.


Is Chris Skrebowski aware of this thesis and how widely disseminated is it?
I have no idea if he knows about it or not, but you can find information about it here: http://publications.uu.se/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625

Or the whole text: http://www.diva-portal.org/diva/getDocu ... lltext.pdf

I can tell you Uppsala University had to pay mucho $$$ to get access to the data contained in that text, which is now in the public domain.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 14:56:03

Starvid,

Which data would that be? I assume the reserve data for the big oil fields which came from a variety of sources (or in other words IHS Energy) ?
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Starvid » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 16:03:43

Yep.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 20:17:39

Thanks for answering my questions.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Starvid » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 08:54:17

So, that was that.

I met Robert Hirsch and Colin Campbell, and had a very nice chat with the latters wife. :)

The thesis was approved by the way, and to my great surprise was greatly covered by the media. It was on the morning radio economic news as one of the main points, in the local paper, in the main economic paper of the country etc.
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby leal » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 16:05:37

Starvid wrote:The thesis was approved by the way, and to my great surprise was greatly covered by the media. It was on the morning radio economic news as one of the main points, in the local paper, in the main economic paper of the country etc.

Yes, i heard that on radio P1. A little bit surprised to hear about peak oil on national public radio. An article in swedish can be found here. Professor Marian Radetzki says that there should be no worry about peak oil since prevoius forecasts about peak oil has been wrong, this is also wrong. Yes, he is an economist :wink:
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby waegari » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 08:05:21

leal wrote:Professor Marian Radetzki says that there should be no worry about peak oil since prevoius forecasts about peak oil has been wrong, this is also wrong. Yes, he is an economist :wink:


They just love to forget that in Aesop's fable the wolf eventually did rear up its gluttonous head...

http://www.storyarts.org/library/aesops ... s/boy.html
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Re: Giant oil fields and their importance for future product

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 08:18:18

waegari wrote:
leal wrote:Professor Marian Radetzki says that there should be no worry about peak oil since prevoius forecasts about peak oil has been wrong, this is also wrong. Yes, he is an economist :wink:


They just love to forget that in Aesop's fable the wolf eventually did rear up its gluttonous head...

http://www.storyarts.org/library/aesops ... s/boy.html


There is geological reality and there are economists and never the two shall meet it seems.
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World oil reserves and future production

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 21:51:17

Mr. Leonard started by saying he has “always been interested in the oil reserves question.” In 2001, he wrote a paper on peak oil that two U.S.-based publications turned down but which Yukos then published in Russian. At a recent energy seminar, Leonard handed out copies of his 2001 paper to the 50 attendees. The key quote up front is this:

World oil reserves and future production

“By 2010, the production of the fuel that has driven the world’s economy will start to rapidly decline. This will conflict with the steadily increasing demand for oil. The collision of these two trends will lead to shortages and increased prices, providing a strong incentive to shift to alternative fuel resources…Due to unequal distribution through the world of oil and gas supply and consumption, [the upcoming] transition will result in significant shifts in global power and wealth.”

Conclusions: a moderate rise in OPEC production will be partially offset by decreasing production in the Rest of World, with FSU production steady. A production peak of ultradeep water fields will allow the “peak” to be a “plateau during the coming decade, followed by a sharp fall. An increase in production of unconventional oil and natural gas liquids can add 5 million b/day during the coming decade. The current supply-side crisis is due to peak oil reached in the Rest of World in 2003, combined with a cessation of significant production growth in Russia after 2004.


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Re: World oil reserves and future production

Unread postby Revi » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 22:11:11

2010 sounds like it will be really fun. I can hardly wait for the fall off the plateau. I think it will be the winter of 2009/10 that will really be the hard one for people around here.

This next winter isn't going to be a picnic, but the one after that is going to really be bad.

Peak oil is really no fun at all, is it?
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Re: World oil reserves and future production

Unread postby Eli » Mon 30 Jun 2008, 22:53:04

You watch Revi, we are going to burn a lot of trees to stay warm in the coming years.

PO is not fun.
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Future Production OTSF Changing Views about Peak Oil

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 29 Jul 2013, 01:44:00

We actually have trillions of "something" this and "something" that. The catch is rate of flow:

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... te-of-flow

See also,

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/take/pe ... at-way/963
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Changing Views about Peak Oil over the Last 5 Years?

Unread postby Timson » Mon 29 Jul 2013, 05:37:51

The IEA says we have 6-7 trillion barrels of something else left, all of it lower than the $150 mark. So we'll just live off another 6-7 trillion of frenzy into the next century, and maybe by then there will be windmills everywhere, idiot liquid powered transport will be outlawed, and we can worry about the union wages paid the windmill repair guys, because they have become really, REALLY important.


I absolutely believe that that is true, but that doesn't matter at all. As you know (or don't) prices in a free market economy are set by offer and demand. there may be trillions of barrels waiting to be pumped at 5 usd/barrel. But if the rate is 10 barrels a day and demand is 20 barrels, you have a problem. Someone's got to give.
I'm saying that the shale gas frenzy cannot fill the gap of the giant oil fields decline.
I have a bike shop and it's summer now. Although my electric motors costs the same now as in winter, I just can't get any because demand is higher dan supply from the manufacturers. That means people waiting. No problem for your bike, but a big problem if for a factory...
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 29 Jul 2013, 14:49:05, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Fixed broken quote
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