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World Grain Status (merged)

Massive grain shortages leading to wide-spread starvation

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 02 Jun 2016, 22:03:45

Not. :lol:

No Room in U.S. Grain Silos Means Dumping Wheat in Parking Lots
[...]

While farmers expanded storage in recent years, that’s been undermined by global crop surpluses and a strong dollar. Once the world’s biggest wheat exporter, the U.S. saw its shipments in the year through Tuesday drop to the lowest since 1972. With inventories up 30 percent and expected to swell further, the price outlook is getting more bearish. Chicago futures tumbled for three straight years, and in February touched the lowest level since 2010.

The glut may only get bigger. Global supply, including production and inventories, will exceed consumption by the most ever in the year that ends in June 2017, with the harvest expected to be the second-highest on record, the International Grains Council said May 26.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Massive grain shortages leading to wide-spread starvatio

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 00:44:40

Good news, as an old farmer friend of mine once said "but it puts a strain on the soil!" :P

We'll just have to hope that common sense prevails and they don't starve the agricultural sector of investment in the next couple of years, otherwise we'll have shortages in three years!

Like what is about to happen in the oil industry.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Massive grain shortages leading to wide-spread starvatio

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 01:22:51

On ground fumigated & tarped storage isn't dumping. 90% of Aistralia's wheat harvest spends from a few days to a year in such set ups every year.
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Re: Massive grain shortages leading to wide-spread starvatio

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 01:53:22

SeaGypsy wrote:On ground fumigated & tarped storage isn't dumping. 90% of Aistralia's wheat harvest spends from a few days to a year in such set ups every year.

Exactly, short term storage while it is waiting to be processed or moved into long-term storage.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 16:07:17

If you read the Ag departments world grain summary it all looks good on a worldwide basis this year. Everything is up without any offsets in other grains. That is a good thing considering that there are 80 million new people to feed and another 80 million expected each year. Change those two and three percent crop increases into five to ten percent decreases due to drought or diseases and the situation could turn around in any year.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 22:43:29

"and another 80 million expected each year"

That is actually expected to drop to 50 million because of increased death rates due to an older global population over the next couple decades (and that's without the massive dieoffs we have been expecting here).

I was surprised to notice that we're almost up to seven and a half billion already! It seems like not that long ago that we crossed, the seven billion mark.

The FAO Food Price Index is lower than it's been in the last few years, but it's actually on the rise and looks likely to exceed 2015 prices within the next few months. (And of course it's far above where it was at the beginning of the century.) http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/f ... sindex/en/
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 04:42:44

dohboi wrote:"and another 80 million expected each year"

That is actually expected to drop to 50 million because of increased death rates due to an older global population over the next couple decades (and that's without the massive dieoffs we have been expecting here).

I was surprised to notice that we're almost up to seven and a half billion already! It seems like not that long ago that we crossed, the seven billion mark.

The FAO Food Price Index is lower than it's been in the last few years, but it's actually on the rise and looks likely to exceed 2015 prices within the next few months. (And of course it's far above where it was at the beginning of the century.) http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/f ... sindex/en/

It is tapering off(The rate of increase) but even if it drops to 50MPY in 2046 you get an average of 65MPY for a total of 1.3 billion added on to the present 7.5!
Looking at it another way that 80 million need the equivalent of 14 bushels of wheat each to survive. or 1120 million bushels per year. Our center of wheat production is Kansas. They harvest on average 350 million bushels per year in Kansas. So we need three new Kansas-es this year and by 2046 will need 52 more Kansas-es or 9 more of the USA's entire wheat belt. (@2 Billion bushels per year currently).
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 16:30:48

Good points.

Meanwhile, locusts are eating up the Russian wheat crop: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/02/ ... in-russia/
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 10:37:11

While it is unlikely that anyone in a grain growing country will have trouble buying bread this year, it's important to remember that a large part of humanity's strategy on this involves simple luck. We are rolling the dice that these types of misfortunes will never happen to all the large grain growing regions in the same year. Problem of course, is that climate-zone wise, there really aren't a large enough number of these regions to make such an assertion a guarantee. Its not all that hard to roll snake-eyes, when you do it year, after year, after year.

Problem is, of course, that the stake on the table... is the starvation of billions of ruthless, cruel, territorial, medium weight predators.

Which is honestly, why the grain production side of climate change is really the only factor of climate change that touches even a hint of dread in my mind. The rest are "meh, carry on, keep breathing, play the cards as they are dealt.."
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 12:47:50

AgentR11 wrote:While it is unlikely that anyone in a grain growing country will have trouble buying bread this year, it's important to remember that a large part of humanity's strategy on this involves simple luck. We are rolling the dice that these types of misfortunes will never happen to all the large grain growing regions in the same year. Problem of course, is that climate-zone wise, there really aren't a large enough number of these regions to make such an assertion a guarantee. Its not all that hard to roll snake-eyes, when you do it year, after year, after year.
We will be adding new growing opportunities in the siberian and canadian taiga/tundra, the largest combined biome on the earth. As these regions warm and the peat melts we will be revealing virgin soils full of untapped nutrients. A new age beckons. At least doom is offset for another few hundred years. Then we can die.

AgentR11 wrote:Problem is, of course, that the stake on the table... is the starvation of billions of ruthless, cruel, territorial, medium weight predators.

Which is honestly, why the grain production side of climate change is really the only factor of climate change that touches even a hint of dread in my mind. The rest are "meh, carry on, keep breathing, play the cards as they are dealt.."

Sad to be you :cry:
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 12:50:14

Good points, A. All other crises will continue to be local and regional for a while. But if just two or three of the major wheat producing regions in the world were hit at the same time with major weather/climate catastrophes, we'd be in major trouble right away.

(And ignore the troll--we've already been over that soggy ground many times.)
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 13:07:44

dohboi wrote:Good points, A. All other crises will continue to be local and regional for a while. But if just two or three of the major wheat producing regions in the world were hit at the same time with major weather/climate catastrophes, we'd be in major trouble right away.
Right away? Is that next year?

dohboi wrote:(And ignore the troll--we've already been over that soggy ground many times.)
I don't remember this being settled. Not unless you are proponent of Instantaneous Climate Crazyness (ICC). Most reputable scientists (myself included) are not. We no longer believe in global warming. It's Climate Change. Some changes for the good. Some for the bad.

Why will the taiga/tundra become a soggy mess, rather than a gorgeous rolling and verdant farm field? How is that?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 13:15:38

pstarr wrote:Sad to be you :cry:


Why? I enjoy being me just fine.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 13:27:45

AgentR11 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Sad to be you :cry:


Why? I enjoy being me just fine.

Good. I guess you can dismiss that hint of dread in your mind then :)
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 13:31:21

No need to dismiss; accept and embrace work better.
Yes we are, as we are,
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 13:51:42

AgentR11 wrote:No need to dismiss; accept and embrace work better.

But you are accepting emotional stress (you said so yourself . . . a hint ) and embracing something that is not there, except perhaps in your mind. The certitude that we are about to murder mankind and the planet's other lovely creatures is just not backed up by science.

Are you trying to ruin my day? Because if you are, you have failed.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 14:59:22

@ pstarr....sorry dude it's already happening.....we are in the middle of the 6th great extinction event ....and we are the cause of it
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 17:17:54

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr....sorry dude it's already happening.....we are in the middle of the 6th great extinction event ....and we are the cause of it

and you know that how? dude
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 18:16:16

@ ps.......are you living under a rock?


http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/prog ... on_crisis/
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 05 Jun 2016, 18:37:08

pstarr wrote:
AgentR11 wrote:No need to dismiss; accept and embrace work better.

But you are accepting emotional stress (you said so yourself . . . a hint ) and embracing something that is not there, except perhaps in your mind. The certitude that we are about to murder mankind and the planet's other lovely creatures is just not backed up by science.


Accept and embrace the risk. There is no certitude involved. My point is that the risk is non-trivial, and the cost of failure is unimaginably high. As to stress, managed and directed stress is not necessarily a bad thing.

Are you trying to ruin my day? Because if you are, you have failed.

I'm ambivalent with regard to your day. Not really any of my business. I'm only interested in discussing the ideas involved.
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