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World Grain Status (merged)

High corn prices lead to more Iowa flooding?

Unread postby C8 » Wed 26 Jun 2013, 10:39:59

Interesting little article showing the unintended links between high commodity prices, climate change, and natural disasters. this was reprinted in the Insurance Journal which communicates with members of that industry. italics are mine.
Experts Say Iowa Should Act to Stymie Flooding

Iowa could do more to avoid flooding by limiting how much rainfall runs off into the state’s rivers and streams, including addressing climate change and expanding grasslands and wetlands to absorb rain where it falls, experts said.

Despite devastating floods in 1993 and 2008, calls by environmentalists and scientists for the state to act to address flooding have often been ignored, The Des Moines Register reported.

Figures show that Iowa’s participation in the federal Conservation Reserve Program, which pays farmers to keep some land in native grasses and out of crop production, has dropped sharply as corn prices have risen over the years.

In 1993, Iowa peaked with 2.2 million acres in the CRP. By 2008, acreage had dipped to 1.8 million. This spring, it stood at just 1.5 million.

“Sadly, it looks as if things are going in the wrong direction right now,” Craig Cox, the Environmental Working Group’s Iowa-based senior vice president for agriculture and natural resources, told the Register. “Landowners can’t do much about how hard it rains, but they can do a lot to keep that water from rushing into streams and triggering flooding downstream.”

Conservation practices like no-till, grass buffers and wetlands to keep water on the land just a bit longer can help more than many people realize, Cox said.

He said that “cutting a few inches off a flood peak can keep a damaging flood from becoming a devastating flood.”

Experts predict the threat of flooding will only grow.

Iowa State University scientist Eugene Takle and colleagues predict a 50 percent increase in Iowa’s stream flows by the 2040s as rainfall increases because of climate change.
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/midwest/2013/06/25/296641.htm
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Global warming reduces wheat production markedly

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 16:36:56

Global warming reduces wheat production markedly if no adaptation

The researchers found out that in response to global temperature increases, grain yield declines are predicted for most regions in the world. Considering present global production of 701 million tons of wheat in 2012, this means a possible reduction of 42 million tons per one degree Celsius of temperature increase.

"To put this in perspective, the amount is equal to a quarter of global wheat trade, which reached 147 million tons in 2013. In addition, wheat yield declines due to climate change are likely to be larger than previously thought and should be expected earlier, starting even with small increases in temperature," says Prof. Dr. Reimund Rötter from Natural Resources Institute Finland.

"Therefore, it is essential to understand how different climate factors interact and impact food production when reaching decisions on how to adapt to the effects of climate change."

... "Increased yield variability is critical economically as it could weaken regional and global stability in wheat grain supply and food security, amplifying market and price fluctuations, as experienced during recent years," says Professor Rötter.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/ ... e2470.html

Image
a, Grain yield trends for 1981–2010 based on the median yield of a 30-model ensemble. b,c, Relative median grain yield for +2 °C (b) and +4 °C (c) temperature increases imposed on the 1981–2010 period for the 30-model ensemble using region-specific cultivars. Simulation model uncertainty was calculated as the coefficient of variation (CV%) across 30 models and plotted as circle size. The larger the circle, the less the uncertainty.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 10:03:51

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/25/world ... a-drought/

North Korea's historic drought expected to cause famine, U.N. says
By Kathy Novak, CNN
Updated 0437 GMT (1137 HKT) June 26, 2015
| Video Source: CNN

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.as ... 0409001528

Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:22
North Korea Asks for Iran's Help to Overcome Drought

"The emergency request of North Korea from Iran includes a demand for helping that country resolve its unprecedented drought," the North Korean envoy said, conveying the message of North Korean prime minister.

He reiterated that North Korea is facing many problems in the economic sector, specially supplying foodstuff, and said, "We have demanded the needed tools to confront the drought and improve the country's agricultural conditions and we also ask Iran to help North Korea as far as it can."
**************************************************************

2015 will be the year the great famine because of global warming will start.

M_B_S
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 10:22:10

2015 will be the year the great famine because of global warming will start.


Your previous post from two years ago sounded just as certain. Sure you want to keep making these predictions?
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 11:27:59

We're you just talking about North Korea, there, MBS?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 16:39:48

.
there is something going on in the wheat market , northern summer is harvest time and the usual form is prices dip
better sell and get the money than store and incur extra cost .
there is more to it but that's about the size of it

the wheat market is pretty solid usually , it's controlled by a few very huge trading firms
they HATE churning speculation and play a pretty straight bat , the price is the price .
they don't care who get screwed , the farmer or the consumer ,
they take their cut , deliver the goods ,and let the chips fall as they will

this year , touted as plentiful , price shot up to near record level in the space of a week !?!?!?!?
what the.....
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 17:47:30

"price shot up to near record level in the space of a week !?!?!?!"

Whoa, weird. Thanks for keeping on top of this. Do you have any linkies handy?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 22:30:38

dohboi wrote:"price shot up to near record level in the space of a week !?!?!?!"

Whoa, weird. Thanks for keeping on top of this. Do you have any linkies handy?

Here is a good place to start.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricul ... nd_cbt.pdf
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 00:50:48

.
Here are some more

the international grain council ,very serious if a bit late in the numbers ,
the graphs are fine , pay attention to supply and demand balance with end of year stocks the critical metric
http://www.igc.int/en/Default.aspx

the best and fastest , Glencore , a massive merchant house they buy and sell commodities from oil to barley
they are special for having their own production units
http://www.glencoregrain.com.au/
each prices trend has its special characteristic but CBOT wheat ( Chicago board of trade ) is the easiest to follows

and last but not least , the most watched DOA monthly report
the WASDE , always a bit of old news but billions of dollars move on its words
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 10:46:39

Thanks, folks.

On the one hand, it looks like the very latest updates have things moving down again, so we'll see which way it goes from here.

The set of graphs at spark's first excellent link shows that corn and soybeans (but not rice) has had a similar trajectory recently. Do those often go in lockstep with each other like that?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 10:59:55

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 16:08:01

Ah. Good reminder to us urban hicks that rain can be even more damaging to crops than drought.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Fri 03 Jul 2015, 09:18:58

.
Every years ,since seven thousand years , there is this unspoken fear ....will the harvest come good .
if you think we are better , I've got news for you
each year we walk the tight rope of need and want ,
each year the supply of cheap food keep the world ( more or less ) going .

this happen because millions of barrel of crude have replaced millions of farmhands sweaty labor
unlike workers , the farm machinery don't eat the harvest , they eat crude oil .
it leave more for the rest of us .
...until they can't no more , then the population beast will loose some weight
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 03 Jul 2015, 18:53:19

Well put.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 05 Jul 2015, 07:07:58

@ spark

not sure it's as clear cut as that

i'd bet that any country with a reasonably competent government will try to ensure the essential services are maintained; including the system that provides food for their citizens

in countries like my own, there are significant savings in fuel consumption possible with fuel rationing, as was proven in WW2 for example.

and yes there will always be people that try to circumvent the restrictions
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 06 Jul 2015, 01:27:58

.
On the subject of food and World War 2 ,
I recommend you read the masterful book of Lizzie Collingham "the taste of war"
it's as good an horror story as was ever written , the chill down the spine come from the fact that it was all true
the famine in Bengal , Tonkin and west Africa , the millions staring in China as a deliberate Japanese policy
the Nazis desire to "eliminate useless mouths" leading to the death of 5 millions Jews and 15 millions Soviets
in fact she make a very closely argued point that food security was the prime mover for Germany , Italy and Japan
seeking to acquire an empire to feed their people .
I know a fair bit about some of what she talk about and I must say , it is quite compelling

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/f ... ham-review
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/books ... .html?_r=0
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 06 Jul 2015, 01:31:22

.
to put things into today perspective 10 countries supply the food for 190 others .
this flow of life giving stuff is controlled by the US Navy ,
now ! that's power !!
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 Jul 2015, 01:43:19

And how few mega ag corporations control what share of the global market. There are many forms of power, not all directly military.
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby sparky » Mon 06 Jul 2015, 03:26:28

.
That's no secret , even if they are very discreet
here is the list , Archer Daniels Midland , Bunge , Cargill , Glencore , Louis Dreyfus .
there are more of course but they tend to be focused on their own national markets
those 6 are the equivalent of the old set up of crude oil " seven sisters "

They make an astounding amount of money but as I've said above don't distort the market .
in fact they ensure the grain goes where it is needed .
they take a very dim view of anyone trying to distort the straight and narrow business of supply and demand

when companies reach a certain size , they become a de facto world ministry ,
playing games is for the billionaires small stuff , they are well above that , stability is their motto
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