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World Grain Status (merged)

Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 10:03:34

Oh, and tack on another 1% loss this AM, even as you can see the PPT/Goldman and their machine/algorithms desperately
juggling the chain saws.

$30 the BBL by Xmas.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 10:17:04

I mean, you get this all the time:

http://www.grains.org/grain-news/2512-g ... -july-2010

The USDA and it's sycophants will just be 'the sun will come up
tomorrow' and then, out of nowhere:
Darrel Good, an ag economist with the University of Illinois, said there are several theories as to why the corn stocks figure was lower than expected. Some theories, like lower test weight corn requiring more corn to be fed to U.S. livestock, don’t add up, he said, because livestock numbers haven’t grown and more farmers are feeding distillers grains.

Good said it comes down to an over estimate of the 2009 crop or USDA will “find some of the missing bushels” in its next stocks report; time will tell.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 10:20:58

And once again, insanity from the USDA:

Record corn, soy crops: USDA

Aug 12, 2010 9:14 AM, By Elton Robinson, Farm Press Editorial Staff

USDA is projecting record production the U.S. corn and soybean crops, with several states reporting record highs for yield....


With Iowa having another annual 100 year flood.
And the MidSouth having 25 strait days of near 100
degree heat.

We get about 2/3 Cat 3/5's and then two/three weeks
of late Sep/early Oct rain.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 12 Aug 2010, 14:36:12

And yet soybeans cost about the same now as they did in late 2009.

There's no evidence that the futures market is predicting a catastrophic food shortage.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby sparky » Fri 13 Aug 2010, 23:02:12

.
The latest WASDE is out
nothing much , a bit of collapse in the "ending stocks" but still above the 2008 crisis
I think this report is a bit on the optimistic side , there was more losses announced in Russia ,
the whole Black Sea area is under some doubt ,
the rains in Eastern Europe are mentioned , it stuffed up some harvest in Poland and Germany

the Pakistani floods are in the river banks where crops are the best usually ,but thanks to international aid , the Talibans will not go hungry

the Dept of Agric. is a bit like the IEA for oil
it always take a while for the real numbers to show up , corrections happen all the time , my guess is those corrections are going to be down
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 10:10:21

Tyler_JC wrote:And yet soybeans cost about the same now as they did in late 2009.

There's no evidence that the futures market is predicting a catastrophic food shortage.


http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/W

Soy with the rest of the CTB, crashed in 2008,
the beginning of the Depression.

The Soy Low was put in January. With a basing/rise
to $12.50 late June/July 4 2009. That is Anything but Normal.

Then the Full On USDA press that the US was experiencing
the Second Largest/Bestest Harvest Ever.

As September rains began and did not stop until, well
they turned to snow.

As Counties started lighting up the map being declared
Ag Emergencies. The Entire states of Mississippi/Texas/Missouri in one form or another.

Iowa/Ilinois/Louisiana/Nebraska....

But still, let's see: USDA Estimates Second-Largest Corn Crop Despite Harvest Challenges PDF Print E-mail
Font Size Larger Font Smaller Font

corn_OKFarmBureau_WebWhat has been dubbed the slowest harvest in decades is reflected in USDA’s lowered projections of feed grains supplies for the 2009/2010 marketing year. USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released Tuesday forecast corn production 97 million bushels lower than the previous month’s 13 billion bushel projection. The primary reason behind the reduction is undoubtedly the wet conditions throughout the majority of the Corn Belt. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reports the United States’ corn harvest at 37 percent complete, 45 percent behind the five-year average. North Dakota corn is the furthest behind reporting only 3 percent harvested, 62 percent behind the five-year average. U.S. Grains Council Past Chairman and North Dakota corn and barley grower Jim Broten says this has been the latest harvest he has ever experienced. “It’s the 12th of November and we’re still harvesting beans. I’ve never harvested beans in November before. But today the weather is nice and we’ll have it done tomorrow. If the weather continues to cooperate, we’ll move on to corn,” said Broten. Despite the 1.3 bushels-per-acre drop in corn yield reflected in WASDE, if the 162.9 bushels-per-acre yield projection is realized, it will be the highest in history.

Sounds just like the Macondo Well, don't it?

The Well's killed (Second Largest Harvest ever) but it's
still got Open Communication:

[-] ROCKMAN on August 2, 2010 - 2:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments top mummsie -- For a variety of reasons (mostly those "unknowns" again) I view that bottom kill as less likely to work than the top kill. And even if the bottom kill appears to work I would worry about the long term ability of the well to stay dead. I've seen more than one improperly plugged "dead well" spring back to life.


The Second Largest Harvest Ever(Well's killed;} but
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reports the United States’ corn harvest at 37 percent complete, 45 percent behind the five-year average. North Dakota corn is the furthest behind reporting only 3 percent harvested, 62 percent behind the five-year average.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sat 14 Aug 2010, 11:11:55

Just because the price of a commodity isn't rising anymore doesn't imply that there is no shortage. Poor peoples have been priced out of the market and they can't bid the market up anymore to ensure a domestic supply.

Real limits exist in terms of how high you can bid for something until you run out of money. This is as true at the household level as it is on an international market level.

Populations in countries that can't bid higher will be doing with less food, going to bed hungry at night, eventually rioting over food shortages. The very fact that most 3rd world dictatorships subsidize the cost of basic staples and fuel shows just how dependant these unstable regions are to low prices. As soon as prices rise beyond a certain level, they can't help but pass the costs along and the imposed social order implodes.

Once the market has found its price, those who can afford food have it, those who can't afford it go hungry- with no further increases in price.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 15 Aug 2010, 02:52:07

mcgowanjm wrote:. . . Now, seriously, back to your analysis of the BDI.
Want to know what a Bull Trap is? You're looking at it.

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/ ... _index.htm . . .

Dude, you're so busy with your incomprehensible ramblings and so ensconced in your charts you're not actually reading the news behind the moves. To wit:

>>> BDI is going up again because China is really, truely and honestly importing more iron ore again. REALLY! 8O <<<

And BTW, the reason it collapsed in the spring was because of a rash of ships (which were largely ordered in 2007 or earlier) came online in the first half of this year and flooded the market with capacity. It had more to do with supply of ships than demand of commodities.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 15 Aug 2010, 19:38:43

^
^
I
L___ :shock: :roll: :twisted: :badgrin: 8)

Like watching tv with the sound off. Just watch the order
of the news feed...

then wonder at what was replaced with silence.

And you're up to date.

James
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 15 Aug 2010, 19:52:10

OilFinder2 wrote:
mcgowanjm wrote:. . . Now, seriously, back to your analysis of the BDI.
Want to know what a Bull Trap is? You're looking at it.

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/ ... _index.htm . . .

Dude, you're so busy with your incomprehensible ramblings

"Example with source/attributions. Now."

and so ensconced in your charts you're not actually reading the news behind the moves. To wit:

"The charts don't lie. And at 11000 and now 2400.
Watch the drop tomorrow AM. Or worse for you, as COLLAPSE
is economizing, stabilize here. Stay for a couple weeks(doubt it;}

Technicals and Fundamentals combined with Quantum Science.

Like Chaos Theory Oil/Human Leptokurtic Curves.

dragon king.*

That you and your can't/won't see the answers in the back of the book.

How again does Pakistan feed itself now with a UK sized
AG AREA under water? As the FSU loses 1/2 it's crop?

Iron Ore for what? To replace drinking water and soy?
OR make new trash equipment to clean out the intakes of the Three Gorges Dam?
(A BTW here: Us Dirty Fuckin Hippies said the Three Gorges would all too soon turn into a GIANT Cesspool.)
Of course, as the World Bank/Empire CONTINUE to Fund
World Wide Dam Construction, the lesson has not taken.

BDI is in Full On Death Spiral Collapse mode. Nothing can stop the Massive Contraction taking place now.

America's Chernobyl. The Watershed Event. Climate Weirding proceeds apace.

*2 million humans will be taken off the Pop Roles w/in
2 years. 100% guarantee. "

>>> BDI is going up again because China is really, truely and honestly importing more iron ore again. REALLY! 8O <<<

"You Gots to LOVE "truely and honestly". LMFAO
Like why would they report anything else, eh :?: :idea: :twisted:

And BTW, the reason it collapsed in the spring was because of a rash of ships (which were largely ordered in 2007 or earlier) came online in the first half of this year and flooded the market with capacity. It had more to do with supply of ships than demand of commodities.

^
^
^
I
L____And the reson the ships were ordered in 2007 or earlier was....wait for it.... the Economy will Never Stop Growing:

[quote="Stoneleigh/TAE"Also dismissed from TOD because she like me was/is correct.] #1: "At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained".

• Ben Bernanke, March 28, 2007, in a statement to Congress’ joint economic committee


"This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime."

• Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, July 12th, 2007


This country has endured tough times before. Every time, this economy has bounced back better and stronger than before. The foundation is solid."

• President George W. Bush, March 14, 2008[/quote]
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 16 Aug 2010, 06:18:36

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-10985153

Hay shortages cause rise in bale thefts, say farmers
Shortages have meant the average price of a bale of hay has increased from about £3 to £5 Farmers say they have seen a rise in the number of break-ins by thieves stealing hay this summer.

The thefts are being blamed on a surge in the cost of hay of at least 40% because supplies are down by a fifth.

The first six months of 2010 were the driest in the UK since 1914, which meant conditions were not good for growing hay.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 02 Sep 2010, 19:48:45

Registration is free but required (and well worth the effort in my mind),

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f6f94ac-b6bc-11df-b3dd-00144feabdc0.html

Russia announced a 12-month extension of its grain export ban on Thursday, raising fears about a return to the food shortages and riots of 2007-08 which spread through developing countries dependent on imports.

The announcement by Vladimir Putin came as the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation called an emergency meeting to discuss the wheat shortage, and riots in Mozambique left seven dead.

The unrest in Maputo, in which 280 people were also injured, followed the government’s decision to raise bread prices by 30 per cent. Police opened fire on demonstrators after thousands turned out to protest against the price hikes, burning tyres and looting food warehouses.

Although agricultural officials and traders insist that wheat and other crop supplies are more abundant than in 2007-08, officials fear the deadly Mozambique riots could be replicated.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby sparky » Fri 03 Sep 2010, 08:38:30

.
There is a bit of vagueness about the food trading ,
on the surface , there is a bit of speculation froth on what is basically a no drama story
the silly butterfly speculators getting creamed again by the real specialist traders
but
I don't know , the fertilizer market is all a flutter , prices are quite higher that one would expect from the rather good prospect for the southern harvest
It feel like there is some bad news in the pipe
The WASDE for September should give some trend ,
I'm expecting some corrected numbers on the bad side
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 03 Sep 2010, 18:41:49

Russian Panic Buying Fuels Food Price Speculation
Russians have responded to slashed harvest forecasts by hoarding staples, which has contributed to price gouging, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said.

Russians have “traditionally” responded to bad harvest news by buying enough food to last for months, Skrynnik said at a government meeting in Saratov today. “This leads to a sharp rise in demand for foodstuffs and as a result creates the conditions for artificial, speculative price increases.”

President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia won’t have food shortages “despite a very difficult year” and there are no grounds for rising food prices. He ordered law enforcement agencies and the state competition watchdog to monitor prices.

Russia’s grain crop will fall to between 60 million and 65 million metric tons this year from 97.1 million tons a year earlier because of the worst drought in at least half a century and record heat, Skrynnik said.

The government banned grain exports from Aug. 15 and won’t consider lifting the restriction until next year’s harvest is in, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said today. Harvest forecasts for crops from beets to corn have also been slashed.

Consumer prices rose 5.4 percent in the year through Aug. 30, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. In the week, the price of eggs jumped 8.3 percent, while buckwheat groats rose 5.1 percent, sugar 2.1 percent and flour 1.6 percent, the service said.

‘In Our Blood’

Irina Steshkina, 58, a nanny in Moscow, said Russians don’t trust the government when it comes to food. “As soon as we hear rumors of shortages, it’s time to buy,” she said in an interview. “And speculators know this as well as anyone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-02/russians-hoard-food-amid-worst-drought-in-50-years-sparking-price-gouging.html
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby leal » Fri 03 Sep 2010, 19:34:06

Maybe not too much to worry about:
The market continues to digest the news that the Russian grain export ban will last until summer 2011. At least that is what Putin is saying now.

The trade seems to think that this was some sort of major surprise (it wasn't). He was hardly going to throw the barn doors wide open in January and say "hey comrades export what you want" was he?

I sometimes think that this trade consists largely of a group of naive fresh-faced sixteen year old IQ retarded sheep.
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Re: Russia To Halt Grain Exports

Unread postby sparky » Sun 05 Sep 2010, 03:16:41

.
leal , thanks for the link , the table with the growing seasons is excellent , so is the year ending stocks graph
as for the wheat situation , we'll see
one thing people should keep in mind is that due to the increase in world population ,
the quantity of wheat per person per year is pretty much constant , if anything
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In the world's breadbasket, climate change feeds some worry

Unread postby Loki » Sat 15 Oct 2011, 20:11:36

An older article, but worth reading.

It can't happen here, can it?

The United States, the breadbasket and supplier of last resort for a hungry world, has been such an amazing food producer in the last half-century that most Americans take for granted annual bounteous harvests of grain, meat, dairy, fruits, vegetables and other crops.

When horrific images of drought or famine in Africa, Asia or other regions land in American media, America is usually first in line with food aid shipments, air drops, and other rescue efforts from its seemingly endless stores.

The U.S. alone accounts for half of all world corn exports, 40 percent of soybean exports and 30 percent of wheat exports.

But climate change fears are sounding some warning bells....

"We don't have a long-term reserve. We have a global food supply of about 2 or 3 weeks," said Eugene Takle, Professor of Agricultural Meteorology and Director of the Climate Science Program at Iowa State University.

"We've become insensitive to climate -- with air conditioning, irrigation and better practices," he said. "Well, I think we need to rethink that. Just how vulnerable are we?"

Takle and others say the future is now.

"It's not the long-term climate trends," Takle says, "It's the variability....”

Takle said Midwest farmers are already adapting.

"Farmers say they don't believe in climate change, but you look at how they spend money and are adapting," he said.

Takle pointed to bigger machinery to allow faster and denser seeding amid rainier springs in the Midwest. Frosts are trending later so crops are kept in fields longer to dry.

"It's very important that we recognize the vulnerability," Takle said. "We have situations like in Texas. Huge reservoirs have just vanished. You can't do a work around."...

"We are just trying to find a suitable way to keep these farmers in business. It took generations to create the problem it will take generations to fix the problem," said William Horwath of the University in California, who will develop strategy for rice growing in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

"It's a pretty darn complex problem," Hatfield said. "We poke at it, but we need to get very serious about how do we think about adapting our crop production goals to the concepts of variability."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/ ... GS20110905
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 23 Feb 2013, 09:13:45

Reduced Inventories

The current season’s grain exports from Russia were about 13.7 million tons by Feb. 13, the ministry’s figures showed. Stocks held by leading agricultural producers and millers fell about 29 percent from a year earlier to 22.6 million tons by Feb. 1, according to government statistics.

Temperatures in Krasnodar, Russia’s biggest grain-growing region by crop size, were above freezing on most days in January and reached 15.1 degrees Celsius (59.2 degrees Fahrenheit) on Jan. 22. This month they were as high as 16.2 degrees Celsius on Feb. 7, according to figures from the national weather center.

The beneficial temperatures helped grains germinate and emerge at spots that looked dead on the eve of the winter crop’s dormancy period in early December, Oleg Sukhanov, an analyst at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, said by phone from Moscow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-21/russia-winter-grains-and-export-outlook-seen-aided-by-weather.html

All of these stories seem to be designed to end on an optimistic note so I don't know how reliable reports are any more. The world population keeps growing faster than the food supply, how long can this go one with crop failures so widely reported elsewhere?
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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 19 Apr 2013, 10:40:57

@ Tanada

The picture is painted take a look on it :
**************************************
http://www.timesleader.com/news/otherop ... the-future

Food shortages in the future?

But food security is not just a problem for the poor. It will become, increasingly, a problem for everybody. That is because of population growth. Every day, there are another 220,000 mouths to feed. By 2030, the world will be home to eight billion people; by 2050, there will be nine billion. ......

Huge tracts of the planet are already experiencing water stress. The oil that fuels the world’s tractors is a finite resource; cheap phosphorus fertilizer cannot be guaranteed indefinitely.


According to the U.N., 2013 could turn out very badly.
*************************************************************************************************

Warning Warning Warning

[smilie=5shocking.gif] [smilie=5shocking.gif] [smilie=5shocking.gif]

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Re: World Grain Status (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 19 Apr 2013, 10:40:57

@ Tanada

The picture is painted take a look on it :
**************************************
http://www.timesleader.com/news/otherop ... the-future

Food shortages in the future?

But food security is not just a problem for the poor. It will become, increasingly, a problem for everybody. That is because of population growth. Every day, there are another 220,000 mouths to feed. By 2030, the world will be home to eight billion people; by 2050, there will be nine billion. ......

Huge tracts of the planet are already experiencing water stress. The oil that fuels the world’s tractors is a finite resource; cheap phosphorus fertilizer cannot be guaranteed indefinitely.


According to the U.N., 2013 could turn out very badly.
*************************************************************************************************

Warning Warning Warning

[smilie=5shocking.gif] [smilie=5shocking.gif] [smilie=5shocking.gif]

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