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World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oil?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 13 Oct 2014, 01:29:27

Newfie has referred to this in other threads:

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global ... t_2014.pdf

It seems to be an opinion poll of various elites:
The survey was conducted between October and November
2013 among the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder
communities of leaders from business, government,
academia and non-governmental and international
organizations.

It does not explicitly mention Peak Oil or non-renewable resource limitations (except water) in it's main categories:
Fiscal crises in key economies
Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution
Liquidity crises
Structurally high unemployment/underemployment
Oil-price shock to the global economy
Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure
Decline of importance of the US dollar as a major
currency
Greater incidence of extreme weather events
(e.g. floods, storms, fires)
Greater incidence of natural catastrophes
(e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions,
geomagnetic storms)
Greater incidence of man-made environmental
catastrophes
(e.g. oil spills, nuclear accidents)
Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
(land and ocean)
Water crises
Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Global governance failure
Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance
Increasing corruption
Major escalation in organized crime and illicit trade
Large-scale terrorist attacks
Deployment of weapons of mass destruction
Violent inter-state conflict with regional consequences
Escalation of economic and resource nationalization
Food crises
Pandemic outbreak
Unmanageable burden of chronic disease
Severe income disparity
Antibiotic-resistant bacteria
Mismanaged urbanization
(e.g. planning failures, inadequate infrastructure and
supply chains)
Profound political and social instability
Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and
networks
Escalation in large-scale cyber attacks
Massive incident of data fraud/theft

It does define "Oil-price shock to the global economy" as
Sharp and/or sustained oil price increases place further economic pressures on highly oil-dependent industries and consumers, while raising geopolitical tensions.
It's not clear whether "sustained" includes "forever".

It also mentions:
Geopolitical Risks
The geopolitical category covers the areas of politics,
diplomacy, conflict, crime and global governance. These
risks range from terrorism, disputes over resources

and
Environmental pressures that could undermine competitiveness include pollution, biodiversity loss and climate change, while scarcity of mineral resources could endanger future consumption as demand continues to climb.


Do you think this report shows a lack of Peak awareness among the surveyed elites?
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Re: World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oi

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Mon 13 Oct 2014, 02:58:23

If they say it it cant be unsaid
The shock waves of reality would crash the global economy
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
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Re: World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oi

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 13 Oct 2014, 10:35:28

Agree with SM. The reason CC is discussed and PO is brushed under the table is because of time-scales.
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Re: World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oi

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 13 Oct 2014, 11:00:56

Many people have said it but we lurch from complacency to panic or shock to trance on energy. When the global economy collapses and energy prices fall, everyone thinks that energy is no longer the issue. Instead of thinking of imposing the much needed tax on energy during a global collapse/fall in prices, people look at the lower gasoline prices as a silver lining. I may have lost my job but I can now afford to drive my Hummer around. Rather than a tax, I wish we would take advantage of the lower energy prices and high unemployment and do some major national prep projects to help with the energy and climate future. We are too preoccupied with Ebolapaluza and Jihadifixation
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Re: World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oi

Unread postby Pops » Mon 13 Oct 2014, 12:56:18

I think the thing that makes PO different is most everyone who considers it at all realizes FFs are the enabler for the whole system and mitigating any other problem is harder if not impossible without them.

"Sharp and sustained high oil price" implies only fewer lattes, not teotwawki.

The fact that FFs are the limiting factor is what makes peakers the ultimate doomsday cultists.
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Re: World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oi

Unread postby Loki » Mon 13 Oct 2014, 21:26:19

Keith_McClary wrote:Do you think this report shows a lack of Peak awareness among the surveyed elites?

Well, oil shock was #5 on the list. Seems like some of them learned something from 2008. At least the oil problem has entered into their dim awareness.

That list of their's reads like a doomer's wet dream. Where's EMP? :lol:
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Re: World Economic Forum's Risk Assessment - Where's Peak Oi

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 14 Oct 2014, 07:24:34

Joe6Pack wrote: EMP Wazzat? Peak Oil? Never heard of it must not be important...Whats the score in (your favorite sporting event)?
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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