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Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 16:04:06

As Lily Tomlin put it: "No matter how cynical you become, it's never enough to keep up."

:) :)

But really, death rates are due to start rising soon simply from the demographics...dying baby boomers.

World population growth rates have been dropping fairly steadily since before the beginning of the millennium, and are now down to a bit over 1%. With the inevitable rise in death rates and the continued drop in birth rates (which have similarly been dropping steadily since at least 2000, from 22 to 18 births/1000), dropping the last percent of pop growth to zero seems quite likely over the next decade or so. And that without figuring in the inevitable growth in deaths from direct heat and from the conflicts that GW inspired droughts and floods will trigger.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=25&c=xx&l=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=26&c=xx&l=en

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=xx&l=en

And more fun graphs:

Image


Image
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 22:13:57

I don't expect dying baby boomers will have nearly the effect you seem to be anticipating.
Why is simple math. The baby boomers were all born in the 21 years from 1945-1966. World population in 1970 after every baby boomer alive today had already been born stood at 3,700,000,000 humans. Today we have 7,550,000,000 humans. Even more so than that makes it look like because the older generation that made up most of the 3,700,000,000 people were born in 1944 or before, which means those still alive are 73 or older, and as we all know the grim reaper considers those folks prime targets; few of them make it to 83 and fewer make it to 93 and very very few make it to 103.

That means virtually everyone born before the baby boomers has already passed on or has one foot on a banana peel as I type this.

So lets be very generous and say 400,000,000 of that 1970 population are still alive today. If they all died in their sleep this very night that would be less than 10% of the world population as it stands right now. In addition all of them are well past child bearing age so their deaths would not do one iota to slow the birth rate.

Sure in Europe, Australia and North America the baby boomers are a significant slice of the population. On the world stage however they are a drop in the bucket likely numbering about 5 percent or even less of the world population total.

Based on the world population clock site I prefer,
Births this year________________65,897,279
Deaths this year_______________27,240,452
Population Growth this year_____38,656,000

Combined that means we are adding about 215,000 people a day every day to world population. Until you up the world death rate by another 215,000 people every day to get it around 370,000 total daily deaths the population is going to keep growing. The average age of the world population today, counting all those baby boomers with the grim reaper looking to greet soon, stands at 29.9 years.

That is a lot more balanced than it was from 1955-1985 when it averaged around 23 years old for the total population. However as those pre-baby boomer generations have passed on and the percentage birth rate has slowed the number has gradually crept upwards over the last three decades to about 30. I can remember when the world hit the 5,000,000,000 mark in the mid 1980's and some news show did a special on how half the population of Mongolia was 16 or younger. Now THAT is a baby boom, and it was true of a lot of countries that were undergoing rapid modernization that cut infant mortality rates very deeply.

Pause and consider, that means 2,500,000,000 more people alive right now were born AFTER 1987. Stretch that point a little further and you will realize there were enough more on top of those to replace everyone who died from the 5,000,000,000 who were alive in 1987 but who are not alive today. In 2015 .0077*7,300,000,000= 56,210,000 people died in that year. Roughly the same number died in the years from 1987-2015 because the death rate per thousand declined steeply due to the youthening of the total population, and improved health care access to things like broad spectrum anti-biotics in even the poorest countries.
So rough estimate 50,000,000*30=1,500,000,000 people who were alive in 1987 died before today, which means the real number of people 30 or younger is 2,500,000,000+1,500,000,000=4,000,000,000 out of the 7,550,000,000 total now alive.

4,000/7,550=52.98% of the world population alive this instant was born within the last 30 years. Because those are the population well within the reproductive age of <40 years old you could knock off the other 47% of us tonight and in a few years they would be right back up to 7,550,000,000

In fact just for fun lets say God or Nature or some artificial plague from some teenagers genetics experiment killed everyone 41 and over tonight.
World Population 1977 was 4,100,000,000;
Crude death rate of roughly 50,000,000/year*40/years=2,000,000,000;
Increase in world population since 1977 3,450,000,000
2,000,000,000+3,450,000,000=5,450,000,000 people alive after all 41+ drop dead.

It took humanity less than 30 years to go from 5,000,000,000 to 7,550,000,000 and;
5,450/7,550=72.185% of the humans alive today are in the reproductive age bracket of <40!

No doubt there would be a brief adjustment period as new leaders are selected from those currently 40 or less, but can you honestly say the 72 percent left behind would make a bigger mess without the elder generation that did a lot to create the mess we have today? Half of them are currently parents and a few are even grandparents so they have some clue about how the world works and that life honestly just is not fair. Not only that in almost every culture they would inherit the wealth left behind by the dead so their financial situation would be modestly to greatly improved, unless they happen to work at a nursing facility for the elderly.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 07:10:59

Tanada wrote:It took humanity less than 30 years to go from 5,000,000,000 to 7,550,000,000 and;
5,450/7,550=72.185% of the humans alive today are in the reproductive age bracket of <40!



Great post Tanada. To emphasize a point you made neither war or pandemics will have any significant impact on human population as long as food and basic health care is present which would permit the human population to rebound quickly after either of these events.

Those 72% still in breeding age are mostly found in countries that are marginally self sufficient in food production or dependent on grain imports and where most citizens are spending the majority of their daily incomes on food.

It is famine that remains the most likely corrective factor to over population. I can't help but be reminded of the yeast analogy, human population expands to where the feedstock permits. Today that is the vast global over production of grains.

Major disruption to global harvests of three main grains; rice, wheat and corn probably represent the most likely factor to bringing down the human population.

If you scan the short term horizon it is probably climate change that represents the biggest threat to that feedstock. Fossil fuel depletion is not in the short term going to have any major impact on grain production.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 17:48:59

If you look back at the pictures of both Americans and Europeans after WW2 from 1946 to 1960 you can see that we were a lot thinner then. Perhaps part of the blame would lie in the great depression which was one of (In Europe) causes of the war but the war certainly made it worse. And if you look at the Russian/USSR side of it there are few pictures because millions died of starvation and were not around to have their pictures taken in 1950.
Don't discount war as a possible vehicle which will achieve major reductions in human population in the future.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:08:20

Good observation. A bit ago I read Taset of War that looked at WWII from a food perspective. What struck me was the millions of non combatants that died in nations not involved with the conflict. That was because their food supplies came from involved countries.

So yes war causes food shortages. But more to the point is that vast quantities of people rely upon foodstuffs produced outside their country and most likely shipped overseas. The USA, Canada and Argentina are major food exporters. Or as Tanada corrected me, calorie exporters.

The flip side of this is to look at which countries are either trying to take long term farming land leases or buy it outright. China, South Korea, Malaysia. Then there are those with neither food or money as in most of Africa.

So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:22:26

So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.


Or the demise of the Oil Industry
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:56:17

onlooker wrote:
So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.


Or the demise of the Oil Industry


You only have to consider the vast amount of petroleum products that are used in excess of what is needed for food production to realize that fossil duel depletion will NOT be a major factor in food shortages. Also shipping grain by marine freight is one of the most fuel efficient means of transportation.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 06:57:21

vtsnowedin wrote:If you look back at the pictures of both Americans and Europeans after WW2 from 1946 to 1960 you can see that we were a lot thinner then. Perhaps part of the blame would lie in the great depression which was one of (In Europe) causes of the war but the war certainly made it worse. And if you look at the Russian/USSR side of it there are few pictures because millions died of starvation and were not around to have their pictures taken in 1950.
Don't discount war as a possible vehicle which will achieve major reductions in human population in the future.


That is very true. I was thinking of combat deaths and not so much how food distribution is disrupted during times of war.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 08:45:22

Ibon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you look back at the pictures of both Americans and Europeans after WW2 from 1946 to 1960 you can see that we were a lot thinner then. Perhaps part of the blame would lie in the great depression which was one of (In Europe) causes of the war but the war certainly made it worse. And if you look at the Russian/USSR side of it there are few pictures because millions died of starvation and were not around to have their pictures taken in 1950.
Don't discount war as a possible vehicle which will achieve major reductions in human population in the future.


That is very true. I was thinking of combat deaths and not so much how food distribution is disrupted during times of war.


@ Ibon

Dont forget WWIII could be seen as a solution for somebodys crazy leader reason..... 8O :shock:
Nero burns Rome and sing a song while feeling the heat of the burning flesh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEj1h7BC2b4
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 11:13:57

Ibon wrote:
onlooker wrote:
So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.


Or the demise of the Oil Industry


You only have to consider the vast amount of petroleum products that are used in excess of what is needed for food production to realize that fossil duel depletion will NOT be a major factor in food shortages. Also shipping grain by marine freight is one of the most fuel efficient means of transportation.


Agreed shipping is efficient. I'm wondering about the international financial transactions. How is the producing company going to get paid?
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 11:18:11

Newfie wrote:
Ibon wrote:
onlooker wrote:
So ask yourself, what could cause a cessation of international shipping? War? Surely. But also a collapse of trade and/or financial agreements.


Or the demise of the Oil Industry


You only have to consider the vast amount of petroleum products that are used in excess of what is needed for food production to realize that fossil duel depletion will NOT be a major factor in food shortages. Also shipping grain by marine freight is one of the most fuel efficient means of transportation.


Agreed shipping is efficient. I'm wondering about the international financial transactions. How is the producing company going to get paid?


If you study the potato famine in Ireland you can see how delibrrate profiteering starved a nation so your point is clear. We do not need physical constraints or climate change impacts ro trigger mass famine.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 11:45:29

My point with the Oil Industry was that you do not need actual physical shortages to short circuit the Industry. When the toll or burden of maintaining this Industry outweighs its benefit, maintaining it loses its economic rationale. In fact, on the Oil threads, we are arguing how close we are to this situation. Someday, the Oil Industry will cease operation but Oil will still exist somewhere out there.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 25 Jun 2017, 16:07:41

IIRC, health levels, by many measures, improved in the UK and the US among civilians during WWII--less meat, less dairy, and more exercise is good for you, so that shouldn't be so much of a surprise.

The time when many folks in the US really were undernourished, when most were 'losing' the 'war' of the rich against the poor. A very large portion of those who signed up to serve for WWII were rejected because they were just too mal-nourished after a decade of depression.

More to the point of this thread (cross posted to GW/CC thread, where it is also relevant):

Deep-reaching ramifications of CC...interview:

http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/ch ... i_20170624

...how climate change interacts with economic neoliberalism and post-Cold-War militarism.

“Much of the global south is littered with cheap weapons and veterans of previous conflicts,” Parenti tells Hedges. “Underneath a lot of these ethnic and religious conflicts, we see that there is a climate element.”
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 25 Jun 2017, 16:59:12

FWIW I've read that a lot of rural conscripts in the civil war were extremely under nourished.

Also Japan had that problem and addressed it as far back as the 1880s when they copied the US Navy dietary guidelines and then the ARmy set up schools across the country to teach folks how to change cook proteins.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 02:22:05

These days, the issue is lack of fitness amongst new recruits, a generation of video games and over protective parents nas produced teenagers who are less fit than the average 40 year old.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 03:13:30

dolanbaker wrote:These days, the issue is lack of fitness amongst new recruits, a generation of video games and over protective parents nas produced teenagers who are less fit than the average 40 year old.

Image
Not if you teach your "Alexanders" like Alexander the Great was educated by Aristoteles or King Leonidas from Sparta was teached/trained or Achilles or make a jump Ghandi :idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekOwjDx2gA4

A king is not born he is made!

In the End all what matters is what YOU have done!

And your name will be remembered forever too!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzsfyxACV7M


Conquer your fear and you conquer death !


PEAK OIL

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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 26 Jun 2017, 18:55:52

There's more than one way the 'North' can 'shoot' the South:

As Lake Chad vanishes, seven million people are on the brink of starvation.

https://newrepublic.com/article/143019/ ... starvation
Not so long ago, Lake Chad was one of the largest bodies of water in Africa. The thick reeds and vital wetlands around its basin provided vast freshwater reserves, breeding grounds for fish, fertile soil for agriculture, and grasslands where farmers grazed their animals. In 1963, it spanned almost 10,000 square miles, an expanse roughly the size of Maryland.

But as climate change has taken its toll, the lake has shrunk by 90 percent. Today, only 965 square miles remain. Wetlands have given way to sand dunes. Farmers have abandoned their fields. Those who still live by the lake struggle to survive, beset by chronic drought and the slow onset of ecological catastrophe.
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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 28 Jun 2017, 13:23:47

Italy will reject refugees very soon while the own water supply is critical low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/wo ... 5e27733fc6

Heatwave forces Rome to turn off 2800 water fountains


A stifling heatwave has left ­Romans more grateful than ever for their 2800 drinking fountains.

For the first time since the open-tap fountains were introduced in 1874, however, and just as residents and tourists need them most, city officials plan to turn them off.

“Plans are still being made, but if we shut them off, we can save 1 per cent of Rome’s water supply, which is unfortunately essential during this drought,” an official said....
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This is only the beginning of the 21th century reality in Italy (2017)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... from-libya

Italy considers closing its ports to boats carrying migrants


http://www.lastampa.it/2017/06/23/ester ... agina.html

State of emergency declared in parts of Italy due to drought

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Believe me the politicians will close the borders very soon or they will lay near a wall with bullets in his/her head.
killed by own people.

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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby M_B_S » Thu 17 Aug 2017, 02:20:27

“Blic Online” on refugee crisis: Serbia will defend borders using weapons

Serbia wants to enforce its borders. Just like neighbouring Bulgaria, Belgrade believes the E.U. Turkey Deal might burst, with consequences for the country’s borders, which would consist of a lot of movement across the latter. The Serbian government even wants to use the military to curb that movement.

A few days ago, Bulgaria’s caretaker Prime Minister Ognyan Gerdzhikov had announced, Bulgaria had taken “additional measures”, by enforcing the southern border. The country is increasingly getting nervous because of the latest threats from Ankara, according to which the border might be opened to refugees any time now.

An “increased flow of migrants” was possible “within the next few days”, Gerdzhikov said on Tuesday. So far, no borders have been opened anywhere. And maybe it won’t happen, since 3 billion (U.K. English: milliard) Euro in E.U. money for Turkey is a pretty good argument to leave it that way.

Now Serbia is preparing for the “darkest scenario”, as the publication “Blic Online” puts it. But the government would “always protect the country and the population”, Labour Minister Aleksandar Vulin said, according to the daily.

http://sofiaglobe.com/2017/03/18/blic-o ... g-weapons/
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A logical step while Turkey is also using walls + weapons to shoot "Refugees" and /or Terrorist @ its border with Iran Syria dead.
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.

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Re: Will the "North" shoot on Climate Refugees soon?!

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 07:24:26

It exactly what you had in mind but working in that direction.

USA has bomb d a bridge to strand a convoy of IS fighters and their families. They had come to a truce agreement with Syria and Hezbolla and were to move to a new location. But we weren't part of the deal.

It that I'm a fan of IS, I don't like US involvement there. But at this stage they are pretty much refugees. Odd situation, not likely to make he USA any friends.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41134559
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