Why the oil industry has buried the idea of "peak oil"

[eXpat]

Shorty?

Good call, If I meet you someday Vision I will buy a drink

[pstarr]

Shorty?

Good call, If I meet you someday Vision I will buy a drink

I swear to god I was just making the same connections realization as Vision, thinking "I recognize this person's MO. They are playing (rather poorly) with logics, data, blah blah blah, the same way that SHORTY used to." I'll buy the next drink.

Vision, you are about to get all f@cked UP!

[seenmostofit]

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

[Lore]

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

Shorty was a former ghost turd that won't flush.

[radon]

This is an ancient tradition of this forum - when the sinister omens of a permanent ban are waving in the air, the mysterious word Shorty transpires on the scripts posted on the board.

[eXpat]

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

Shorty was a former ghost turd that won't flush.

Aye, and to troll, he likes to mix selected bit of facts, misinformation and all sort of logical fallacies. Also He/She has a penchant for names such as: ReserveGrowthRules, shortonsense and ...seenmostofit??

[seenmostofit]

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

Shorty was a former ghost turd that won't flush.

Aye, and to troll, he likes to mix selected bit of facts, misinformation and all sort of logical fallacies. Also He/She has a penchant for names such as: ReserveGrowthRules, shortonsense and ...seenmostofit??

Sorry, but if I was doing a word association test for the SATs, for the life of me I wouldn't link those three names. My username is based on what I consider to be an overall jaded outlook on life, how that links with the nonsensical and whimsical is beyond my powers of perception.

[rangerone314]

In any event, in 15 or 20 years when there are multiple massive resource wars,

Exactly, it's always next year, or in 5 years, or in 20 years.
Listen to Kunstler, he's predicting doom next week, for how long now?

I'm not Kunstler. And would it make you happier if I predicted doom in 3 years and it didn't happen.

I sure as hell hope it doesn't happen in less than 15 years; my preps won't be completely done until about 12 years.

[dsula]

In any event, in 15 or 20 years when there are multiple massive resource wars,

Exactly, it's always next year, or in 5 years, or in 20 years.
Listen to Kunstler, he's predicting doom next week, for how long now?

I'm not Kunstler. And would it make you happier if I predicted doom in 3 years and it didn't happen.

I sure as hell hope it doesn't happen in less than 15 years; my preps won't be completely done until about 12 years.

Don't tell me you expect to somehow "survive" the bottleneck and arrive into a better an brighter "after doom" life.
There's 2 options:
1. (not likely) There will be a TSHTF event. In that case it doesn't matter where you are and what you do, chances you get out of it alive are slim. Maybe you don't die the first day, but you'll die after a few years of hardship and once your 'supplies' run out.
2. (likely) It's a slow grinding process towards a miserable life. Nothing can be done. Everything cost more to buy each year, but your salary stays the same. Then you loose your job, you can't afford your health insurance, then you loose your house and before you know it you go thru garbage to find food. And in the end you die.

Some people here have the illusion that once the big bang arrives, society will rebuild into a fair, beautiful system where there's no corporation, no evil government, only integrity, hard-work and old-fashioned honest Amish life.
Think more like living in mexico city slums moving towards even worse. And that will take decades. An then after maybe 200 years of misery and famine some other type society will emerge.

[davep]

It's a slow grinding process towards a miserable life. Nothing can be done. Everything cost more to buy each year, but your salary stays the same. Then you loose your job, you can't afford your health insurance, then you loose your house and before you know it you go thru garbage to find food. And in the end you die.

Surely being able to grow your own food in a place you own outright would help mitigate that? So something can be done, but I agree it won't necessarily be pretty.

[dsula]

It's a slow grinding process towards a miserable life. Nothing can be done. Everything cost more to buy each year, but your salary stays the same. Then you loose your job, you can't afford your health insurance, then you loose your house and before you know it you go thru garbage to find food. And in the end you die.

Surely being able to grow your own food in a place you own outright would help mitigate that? So something can be done, but I agree it won't necessarily be pretty.

That's the problem with 'own outright'. You always owe property tax. I own more than 100 acres outright. However with the money I spend on property tax I could buy food to feed me a year.
What if there's no food anymore to buy, you say? Well in that case you probably also not be able to grow much anymore. Think of all the tools, machines (small and large), spare parts, fences, seeds, processing, glas, pots etc. you need. Once you can't get that no more you're in dire straits, even with 100 acres of land.

And on top of that you get yourself into a defense nightmare. A succesful farm will surely attract hungry visitors. Sometimes I think it's best to actually not own anyhting at all but skills and flexibility. Having a 'homestead' is just an enormous burden and once supplies run short it will start falling apart.

[pstarr]

dsula, you apparently do not understand property tax . A municipality can not afford to tax all property beyond the owners ability to pay, otherwise the tax base disappears. If you want to remain standing you merely need an advantage over other property owners--either on the expense or profit side. I except to do both; (grows own food, makes own power, defends own property, sells excess.) My neighbors spend their cash on vacations and dog-agility runs. I run my life as a business.

drsula, you know the adage; I just have to outrun you. Not the tax collector.

[davep]

Think of all the tools, machines (small and large), spare parts, fences, seeds, processing, glas, pots etc. you need. Once you can't get that no more you're in dire straits, even with 100 acres of land.

It depends if you're looking at a conventional farm or one requiring far less in the way of mechanised input, using heirloom seeds and perennials.

And on top of that you get yourself into a defense nightmare. A succesful farm will surely attract hungry visitors. Sometimes I think it's best to actually not own anyhting at all but skills and flexibility. Having a 'homestead' is just an enormous burden and once supplies run short it will start falling apart.

That also depends. I've personally gone from "OMG, I need lots of guns!" to "There are plenty of hunters around here. If we needed to, we could form a militia". Reloading is relatively easy and inexpensive too (and you can get yourself many many years worth of powder, primers etc).

[dsula]

dsula, you apparently do not understand property tax . A municipality can not afford to tax all property beyond the owners ability to pay, otherwise the tax base disappears.

Yeah, you would think so. But I wouldn't count on it. Especially not in a slow crash. Every year 1% or so more in taxes. You go delinquent, your property is up for auction. The local big farmers scoop it up, you're done. As long as this only happens to a few residents a year it will go unnoticed.
I would especially not count on you (as a subsistance guy) to be able to outrun big money.

Don't count on collapes, but make sure you're the best at what you do, no matter what it is. The future is much more diverse than only subsistance farming. And to think you can do everything on your own on a subsistance level is foolish.

[davep]

You go delinquent, your property is up for auction.

Not in France. They can't take your primary residence off you.

I agree about the diversity thing though. Subsistence farming on its own would be very dull too.

[pstarr]

dsula, you apparently do not understand property tax . A municipality can not afford to tax all property beyond the owners ability to pay, otherwise the tax base disappears.

Yeah, you would think so. But I wouldn't count on it. Especially not in a slow crash. Every year 1% or so more in taxes. You go delinquent, your property is up for auction. The local big farmers scoop it up, you're done. As long as this only happens to a few residents a year it will go unnoticed.
I would especially not count on you (as a subsistance guy) to be able to outrun big money.

You appear to be confusing mortgage foreclosure with city lien. I have no mortgage so I don't worry about foreclosure. As for city lien, the city/town will never kick me out of my home (even if I were in arrears for back taxes) because my homelessness doesn't help anyone (contrary to certain conspiracy-type-theories) The lien might make resell difficult, but that is not the issue we are discussing.

Don't count on collapes

oh yeah? tell that to the Grand Poobah of Great Easter Islande Federation of Big Chiefs. (GEIFBC) He'll certainly want to take it up at the next county supes meeting.

[dsula]

As for city lien, the city/town will never kick me out of my home (even if I were in arrears for back taxes) because my homelessness doesn't help anyone.

My town is not that forgiving. If you can't pay your taxes you're being replaced with somebody who can. Not a bad thing either. I already pay enough property tax, don't want to also have to pay for those who can't.

Don't count on collapes

oh yeah? tell that to the Grand Poobah of Great Easter Islande Federation of Big Chiefs. (GEIFBC) He'll certainly want to take it up at the next county supes meeting.

It took about 700 years for the Easter islands to go to hell. Hardly a fast crash. Life just getting worse over many generations. They probably didn't even realize the drop in standard of living. Same as the gradual decline in the US since the 60's and 70's. Slow process.

Was one of your ancesters sitting on the islands anticipating the collapse? Hoping year after year for 'this is it'?

[Rune]

Is This What Peak Oil Looks Like?

Peak oil theory holds a static view of the world, and its models ignore price effects: lots of oil discoveries and high production mean that prices and profits wane, and incentives for further exploration decline. But ensuing oil shortages then restore these incentives. When incentives exist, the industry will continue to produce and is likely to produce even more. Peak oil theorists also neglect the role of technological advances in oil production as a great multiplier. The history of the oil industry reflects an endless struggle between nature and our knowledge. Progress in technology allows both new discoveries and the increase in recovery rate needed to turn non-recoverable or hypothetical resources into recoverable reserves. _China Dialogue

In the real world, oil reserves are not static, but rather respond to changes in prices, technologies, alternative fuels and energies, and new discoveries. Peak oil has shown itself incapable of responding to real world conditions, which makes it more like a religion.

The market has now priced in declining oil prices at least through 2020. If "peak oil" dynamics are still at play, they are nowhere to be found on this futures curve. [see graph above] _Forexpro

Peak oil skunks show their true stripes in their hysterical reactions over the shale oil & gas boom. Instead of being happy that civilised nations are being given a temporary respite from high energy costs, these little weasels are hoping that governments will shut down the new forms of energy -- they hope for political peak oil.

Apocalyptic thinking has become all the rage in peak oil doom / carbon hysteria circles. Clearly the US Obama administration , along with several governments of Europe, have been tainted more than a little by this coliform pollution of the mind.

But no matter how many circles of doom may form around the perimeter, the main thrust of human nature has always been toward profit, growth, and life. These positive drives push technology and exploration forward, and open up new conceptual mindsets which are able to incorporate new forms of energy, fuels, and possibilities into a larger future vision.

Doom is fashionable among the effete elite in the media, politics, faux environmentalism, academia, and the many cults of the apocalypse. But the rest of us have work to do.

[pstarr]

The chart is nonsense. There is no "fair value" for anything. Only what the market bears. The rest of the rant (which is in violation of the COC, as it is not supported with your analysis) appears equally pointless. I skipped immediately to the last sentence and went, "oh. fun. we have another clueless peak-oil debunker" I was starting to get bored.

[kublikhan]

The chart is nonsense. There is no "fair value" for anything. Only what the market bears. The rest of the rant (which is in violation of the COC, as it is not supported with your analysis) appears equally pointless. I skipped immediately to the last sentence and went, "oh. fun. we have another clueless peak-oil debunker" I was starting to get bored.

+1
Not only is the rant nonsense and not worth debunking, it violates the COC. Carl, you can do better than that.