Why the oil industry has buried the idea of "peak oil"

[pstarr]

the zen of peak. a greasy nano-second. I'm going to friday wine bar. I'm a snob.

[davep]

Of course. But you have to agree that an enormous industrial output today geared towards sensless cunsumption is available. I look around my 'hood and see RVs, ATVs, lawn-mowers, kids with truck loads of toys, TVs, cellphones, inefficient use of cars. Is it really such a big drop in quality of life if you have to read a book instead of watching a movie in your home theater? I don't think so. Is it really such a big drop in quality of life if you have a goat mowing your 2 acre lawn instead of cut to perfection with a John Deere? I don't think so.

The problem for me is that our whole economic system depends on debt and growth due to the use of fractional reserve banking. Of course it is possible to live without all the crap we produce, but we live in a certain economic system and in the inevitable transition we will go through a massive economic upheaval to move away from this exponential growth system. During that period, powerful vested interests will make the process all the more difficult (actually, I'm not sure why I'm using the future tense here, I believe the corporate entrenchment to eke out what they can before it all goes pear-shaped has already started).

It's how we handle the transition that is the issue, and nobody in any position of power is even addressing it economically.

[Lore]

the zen of peak. a greasy nano-second. I'm going to friday wine bar. I'm a snob.

Say, me too, except it's my local brew pub which is about 18 miles away.

[pstarr]

the zen of peak. a greasy nano-second. I'm going to friday wine bar. I'm a snob.

Say, me too, except it's my local brew pub which is about 18 miles away.

I like snob bars. At least you can talk about something other than the freakin' game.

I'll have the charnonayy puleaseeeeeee

[Rune]

Forbes

Peak Oil Off: Great Game On

Peak oilers have had a pretty hard time lately. Not only have global unconventional finds flattened Hubbard’s ‘peak’, more and more conventional plays are cropping up. ‘Running out’? We have more than enough of the black stuff to incinerate ourselves several times over. Such supply side bounty has been well documented in the Americas – not just in the US and Canada, but across Latin America, offering a second pass at resource riches. Head all the way over to Australia, and you’ll see a dazzling display of unconventional technologies rapidly increasing kangaroo LNG production. The North Sea can squeeze out a few more drops; Europe can finally get it’s ‘energy sovereignty’ back from shale plays, all while the Arctic offers Russia untold oil riches. Anywhere you look, the narrative is the same. But just when we thought the global hydrocarbon map was complete, another serious player has cropped up, and it comes in the form of East Africa. This is the new African oil rush, and the race to secure regional riches between East and West is on. Nobody wants to lose: Peak oil is dead, the Great Game is back.

Like it or not, East Africa has just added another serious swathe of hydrocarbon prospects to the global economy. Irrespective of whatever pace the donkeys nod and gas flows, it underlines the fact we are re-entering a period of hydrocarbon plenty. Hydrocarbon assets aren’t ‘stranded’; we aren’t living in a carbon constrained world. The question for East Africa isn’t whether oil will be pumped and gas condensed, but who will be the main market players doing it between East and West. The really bad news for the ‘peak oil faithful’ is that commodity prices might not become more expensive in future. High benchmark prices today, continue to drive investment into technological innovation for cheaper extraction tomorrow. Little surprise that future oil prices are dipping under spot market dynamics: East Africa has merely added an attractive prospect for bullish supply side expectations. Peak is dead. The Great Game lives on…

Can you imagine what would happen to the price of oil if Defkalion Green Technologies actually produces a working LENR device in July as they claim - one which has been authorized and certified?

What an oil price swoon it will be if this new energy technology actually does pan out.

[Arthur75]

drivels

funny one

[threadbear]

drivels

funny one

Funnier still if your post is flagged for altering someone's post--and in a way that's insulting to boot. Like har-de-har-har!!

[Rune]

Funnier still if your post is flagged for altering someone's post--and in a way that's insulting to boot. Like har-de-har-har!

He's got no brain, TB. It's all he can think of to do.


A Post-Oil Man

Now THAT is funny -- even after 6 years!

[Rune]

It makes me think of Matt Savinar (lifeaftertheoilcrash.com)

I wonder how ol' Matt's doin' these days? Anyone know?

[Cog]

Matt believes in the fantasy of astrology. You believe in the fantasy of perpetual energy machines.

I'm going to have to give the edge to Matt on his hold on reality.

[ralfy]

According to the IEA, production from all oil and gas sources online will increase by around 9 pct for the next two decades, and this assumes that conventional sources won't follow historical flow rates. This is partly confirmed by various sources showing an increase, for example, of 4 mb/d for the same period for NA production. There are more details in reports linked here, including several from oil companies:

http://ralfyman.blogspot.com

The problem is that energy demand will have to increase by around two pct each year to maintain global economic growth, which means the 9-pct increase will be wiped out in only four years or so. And if conventional sources follow historical flow rates, then the increase will be even lower. And if energy (and in general, resource) demand has to go up due to increasing population or if production is damaged further due to pollution and climate change, then the situation worsens.

The IEA adds that in order to maintain global economic growth, we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years. In which case, one should not argue that "the oil industry has buried the idea of 'peak oil'." Rather, it sprinkled a bit of dust on top of it.

[seenmostofit]

Considering their track record (the IEA is a great example of "don't worry, be happy" if there ever was one), let alone their claims that peak oil happened years ago, why pay any attention to them at all? They have obviously missed the boat before, and just because they happen to appear with us today doesn't mean they won't pull an about face tomorrow?

[vision-master]

Shorty?

[ralfy]

Considering their track record (the IEA is a great example of "don't worry, be happy" if there ever was one), let alone their claims that peak oil happened years ago, why pay any attention to them at all? They have obviously missed the boat before, and just because they happen to appear with us today doesn't mean they won't pull an about face tomorrow?

Indeed, which is why you have the rest of my post. With that, and following your points, we should see a worst-case scenario, i.e., no 9-pct increase in production but a decline coupled with increasing demand.

[seenmostofit]

Considering their track record (the IEA is a great example of "don't worry, be happy" if there ever was one), let alone their claims that peak oil happened years ago, why pay any attention to them at all? They have obviously missed the boat before, and just because they happen to appear with us today doesn't mean they won't pull an about face tomorrow?

Indeed, which is why you have the rest of my post. With that, and following your points, we should see a worst-case scenario, i.e., no 9-pct increase in production but a decline coupled with increasing demand.

Yeah, but I was thrown by the idea that if they haven't been worth listening to for the past decade or two, why would anyone pay any attention at all to anything they said. Ever. Doesn't matter what scenarios they dream up one way or the other really.

[eXpat]

Shorty?

Good call, If I meet you someday Vision I will buy a drink

[pstarr]

Shorty?

Good call, If I meet you someday Vision I will buy a drink

I swear to god I was just making the same connections realization as Vision, thinking "I recognize this person's MO. They are playing (rather poorly) with logics, data, blah blah blah, the same way that SHORTY used to." I'll buy the next drink.

Vision, you are about to get all f@cked UP!

[seenmostofit]

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

[Lore]

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

Shorty was a former ghost turd that won't flush.

[radon]

This is an ancient tradition of this forum - when the sinister omens of a permanent ban are waving in the air, the mysterious word Shorty transpires on the scripts posted on the board.