Why the oil industry has buried the idea of "peak oil"

[kiwichick]

USGS reduces estimate of yet to find oil from 649 billion barrels to 565 billion barrels

[Maddog78]

Doomer says he will laugh when proven right in 20 years.



I love this forum.

[Pops]

The area under the curve (i.e. total future production) is not going to change, much, but the steepness will. This automatically accounts for a plateau or slow initial post-peak decline. Unless world demands starts to drop significantly from now the pressure to bring oil to market will progressively steepen the future decline rate.

That of course is questionable. As high price makes additional reserves viable. Heroic effort (manpower and industrial output) will be put to work in extracting this oil. The decline will then gently go on for decades.

What is questionable? There is only so much oil and sorta-oil. No question about that.

"high price makes additional reserves viable" = high demand brings production forward = "pressure to bring oil to market will progressively steepen the future decline rate"

What, besides wishful thinking, will cause "The decline will then gently go on for decades" if we will take heroic measures to keep increasing production?

[Pops]

USGS reduces estimate of yet to find oil from 649 billion barrels to 565 billion barrels

Where did you see that KC?

[pstarr]

The area under the curve (i.e. total future production) is not going to change, much, but the steepness will. This automatically accounts for a plateau or slow initial post-peak decline. Unless world demands starts to drop significantly from now the pressure to bring oil to market will progressively steepen the future decline rate.

That of course is questionable. As high price makes additional reserves viable. Heroic effort (manpower and industrial output) will be put to work in extracting this oil. The decline will then gently go on for decades.

Our consumer society does not run on heroic efforts rather inexpensive light, sweet, free-flowing crude oil. The Oil Expense Indicator tells us the 1st-world nations such as ourselves must pay less than 5% of our GDP on crude or the system fails. Read your Hamilton et. al. on the causes of recession and the especially the recent Great Recession. The more money/energy we spend on procuring energy the less is left over for consumer goods, and eventually necessities such as housing, heat, food and water. When that happens much oil will be left in the ground and once again mostly function as canoe caulking.

[pstarr]

Doomer says he will laugh when proven right in 20 years.



I love this forum.

MD20/20 do you have AADD, or do you just imbide too much of your namesake? You show up here every few months in your new set of Hot Wheels, all charged up on fracting wealth, just to poke the rhetorical finger in the "doomers" eyes. When you grow up we can have an adult conversation. Until then just drive away.

[dsula]

Our consumer society does not run on heroic efforts rather inexpensive light, sweet, free-flowing crude oil. The Oil Expense Indicator tells us the 1st-world nations such as ourselves must pay less than 5% of our GDP on crude or the system fails

Hardly. Without much lost in standard of living I can skip on starbucks. With plenty of people doing that starbucks goes broke and plenty of man-power is now freed to go and extract oil on some God-forsaken platform somewhere. With the money I saved from not buying starbucks I can then spend it on more expensive gas. What changed? Not much, same GDP, same employment, same tax revenues, etc. Besides starbucks there's so much excessive unnecessary production and consumption it can be redirected towards more expensive extraction for a long time.

I DO NOT DISPUTE THAT PO/P-ENERGY EVENTUALLY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT HARDSHIP AND EVEN DIE-OFF. But that is far in the future (several decades).

[dsula]

The area under the curve (i.e. total future production) is not going to change, much, but the steepness will. This automatically accounts for a plateau or slow initial post-peak decline. Unless world demands starts to drop significantly from now the pressure to bring oil to market will progressively steepen the future decline rate.

That of course is questionable. As high price makes additional reserves viable. Heroic effort (manpower and industrial output) will be put to work in extracting this oil. The decline will then gently go on for decades.

What is questionable? There is only so much oil and sorta-oil. No question about that.

Na, I'm sure you know that "extractable" and "probable" and all that changes with price.
Example. I have (hypotetically) a small hard to get well on my property. I also cut wood with a chainsaw. Right now it is easier, cheaper, more convinient, simpler to just go down to the gas station and buy gas for the chainsaw. However before I switch to cutting my firewood by hand you can be sure I will go thru heroic measures to extract oil from my well. Hence oil supply just increased. Or in other words I will probably pay $100/gallon of gas for my chainsaw.

"high price makes additional reserves viable" = high demand brings production forward = "pressure to bring oil to market will progressively steepen the future decline rate"

Probably not, because a large portion of industrial output will go towards digging up the last piece of oil or sand or bio-fuel. Meanswhile high oil price will shrink the economy and lower demand. Those 2 go hand-in-hand over decades till finally (no doubt) the wheels come off. But that will not be soon.

What, besides wishful thinking, will cause "The decline will then gently go on for decades" if we will take heroic measures to keep increasing production?

Money makes it possible. The prospect of making money by digging up some dirt is a real mover.

[Pops]

So you figure we'll just continue spending an increasing portion of our wealth on ever harder to exploit energy, until... what?

At what point does it change from a gentle descent where we all become roughnecks, to the wheels coming off?

My guess is you will say, "After I'm gone."

[pstarr]

Our consumer society does not run on heroic efforts rather inexpensive light, sweet, free-flowing crude oil. The Oil Expense Indicator tells us the 1st-world nations such as ourselves must pay less than 5% of our GDP on crude or the system fails

Hardly. Without much lost in standard of living I can skip on starbucks. With plenty of people doing that starbucks goes broke and plenty of man-power is now freed to go and extract oil on some God-forsaken platform somewhere. With the money I saved from not buying starbucks I can then spend it on more expensive gas. What changed? Not much, same GDP, same employment, same tax revenues, etc. Besides starbucks there's so much excessive unnecessary production and consumption it can be redirected towards more expensive extraction for a long time.

I DO NOT DISPUTE THAT PO/P-ENERGY EVENTUALLY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT HARDSHIP AND EVEN DIE-OFF. But that is far in the future (several decades).

Not much? Tell that to the starbucks barista who lost a job. And the bartender the barista can't afford to pay anymore. The more energy/money that goes to procuring energy, the less available for productive socially constructive jobs. Oil rigs do not themselves multiply wealth, only other employed people.

But anyway, you have essentially written off the economist James Hamilton, with a anecdotal story. Not good enough.

[dsula]

the starbucks barista who lost a job.

what do you mean lost job? They can go and dig up dirt for oil. No lost job.

[pstarr]

the starbucks barista who lost a job.

what do you mean lost job? They can go and dig up dirt for oil. No lost job.

you don't seem to understand. It is not a zero-sum game. Yes, some of the extra cost of expensive oil goes into increased oil-field employment. But very little. Take tight shale. The extra costs are spent on thousands of feet of expensive pipe, chemicals, pumps--for a tiny bit of oil. And as in all resource production there is very little value added, and so at the end of the day only oil is produced. Not a car, certainly not a tractors that produces useful stuff like food or fiber. You have sent most of the money down the drill hole.

dude this is very basic economics. not even grade school stuff.

[dsula]

The extra costs are spent on thousands of feet of expensive pipe, chemicals, pumps--for a tiny bit of oil.

There you have it. A lot of industrial output going towards the effort of digging up dirt.
Doesn't really matter if Starbuck-Jose finds a new job in North Dakota or in a steel mill supplying pipes to North Dakota. The industrial output is a function of the energy available. If most of the energy is used to dig up more energy the industrial output doesn't change. Just the where the industrial output is targeted towards changes.

dude this is very basic economics. not even grade school stuff.

Really? Some very educated men frequently try to predict the economic future. Most fail.
Remember Dr.Doom ( who is that, Roubini? don't remember). We will have a total collapse of commerical real-estate by the end of 2008. Can you say that out loud without a smile?

[pstarr]

The extra costs are spent on thousands of feet of expensive pipe, chemicals, pumps--for a tiny bit of oil.

There you have it. A lot of industrial output going towards the effort of digging up dirt.
Doesn't really matter if Starbuck-Jose finds a new job in North Dakota or in a steel mill supplying pipes to North Dakota. The industrial output is a function of the energy available. If most of the energy is used to dig up more energy the industrial output doesn't change. Just the where the industrial output is targeted towards changes.

holy sh@t! you are correct. to a point. But you also must agree that when all the energy/money goes into getting energy, then no energy is left over for other stuff? You have to agree, right? The crucial question is; when does that happen? You assume it is in the distant future. I on the other hand understand that the event is not a single point time (just as peak is not a single day, month, or even year, but a plateau) but a slow, almost imperceptible process that is clearly underway right now as shown by Hamilton and the Oil Expense Indicator.

dude this is very basic economics. not even grade school stuff.

Really? Some very educated men frequently try to predict the economic future. Most fail.
Remember Dr.Doom ( who is that, Roubini? don't remember). We will have a total collapse of commerical real-estate by the end of 2008. Can you say that out loud without a smile?

You sound like Shorty claiming that the earth resources are infinite just because Malthus was off by a few decades. Big deal about Roubini. He was wrong? Or his timing is wrong? We had a near total collapse of the residential real estate market that few mainstream pundits predicted. exceptions do not make rules.

[dsula]

But you also must agree that when all the energy/money goes into getting energy, then no energy is left over for other stuff? You have to agree, right?

Of course. But you have to agree that an enormous industrial output today geared towards sensless cunsumption is available. I look around my 'hood and see RVs, ATVs, lawn-mowers, kids with truck loads of toys, TVs, cellphones, inefficient use of cars. Is it really such a big drop in quality of life if you have to read a book instead of watching a movie in your home theater? I don't think so. Is it really such a big drop in quality of life if you have a goat mowing your 2 acre lawn instead of cut to perfection with a John Deere? I don't think so.

The crucial question is; when does that happen? You assume it is in the distant future. I on the other hand understand that the event is not a single point time (just as peak is not a single day, month, or even year, but a plateau) but a slow, almost imperceptible process that is clearly underway right now as shown by Hamilton and the Oil Expense Indicator.

I agree it's underway, and I agree it's a slow grinding down over SEVERAL DECADES.
TSHTF event as many on this forum cry for is simply not in the near future. However it will come, no doubt there.

(just as peak is not a single day, month, or even year, but a plateau)

No, it's a single day, month, even nano-second. Such is the definition of peak.

Have a nice week-end. It's half-past MILLER !!

[pstarr]

the zen of peak. a greasy nano-second. I'm going to friday wine bar. I'm a snob.

[davep]

Of course. But you have to agree that an enormous industrial output today geared towards sensless cunsumption is available. I look around my 'hood and see RVs, ATVs, lawn-mowers, kids with truck loads of toys, TVs, cellphones, inefficient use of cars. Is it really such a big drop in quality of life if you have to read a book instead of watching a movie in your home theater? I don't think so. Is it really such a big drop in quality of life if you have a goat mowing your 2 acre lawn instead of cut to perfection with a John Deere? I don't think so.

The problem for me is that our whole economic system depends on debt and growth due to the use of fractional reserve banking. Of course it is possible to live without all the crap we produce, but we live in a certain economic system and in the inevitable transition we will go through a massive economic upheaval to move away from this exponential growth system. During that period, powerful vested interests will make the process all the more difficult (actually, I'm not sure why I'm using the future tense here, I believe the corporate entrenchment to eke out what they can before it all goes pear-shaped has already started).

It's how we handle the transition that is the issue, and nobody in any position of power is even addressing it economically.

[Lore]

the zen of peak. a greasy nano-second. I'm going to friday wine bar. I'm a snob.

Say, me too, except it's my local brew pub which is about 18 miles away.

[pstarr]

the zen of peak. a greasy nano-second. I'm going to friday wine bar. I'm a snob.

Say, me too, except it's my local brew pub which is about 18 miles away.

I like snob bars. At least you can talk about something other than the freakin' game.

I'll have the charnonayy puleaseeeeeee

[Rune]

Forbes

Peak Oil Off: Great Game On

Peak oilers have had a pretty hard time lately. Not only have global unconventional finds flattened Hubbard’s ‘peak’, more and more conventional plays are cropping up. ‘Running out’? We have more than enough of the black stuff to incinerate ourselves several times over. Such supply side bounty has been well documented in the Americas – not just in the US and Canada, but across Latin America, offering a second pass at resource riches. Head all the way over to Australia, and you’ll see a dazzling display of unconventional technologies rapidly increasing kangaroo LNG production. The North Sea can squeeze out a few more drops; Europe can finally get it’s ‘energy sovereignty’ back from shale plays, all while the Arctic offers Russia untold oil riches. Anywhere you look, the narrative is the same. But just when we thought the global hydrocarbon map was complete, another serious player has cropped up, and it comes in the form of East Africa. This is the new African oil rush, and the race to secure regional riches between East and West is on. Nobody wants to lose: Peak oil is dead, the Great Game is back.

Like it or not, East Africa has just added another serious swathe of hydrocarbon prospects to the global economy. Irrespective of whatever pace the donkeys nod and gas flows, it underlines the fact we are re-entering a period of hydrocarbon plenty. Hydrocarbon assets aren’t ‘stranded’; we aren’t living in a carbon constrained world. The question for East Africa isn’t whether oil will be pumped and gas condensed, but who will be the main market players doing it between East and West. The really bad news for the ‘peak oil faithful’ is that commodity prices might not become more expensive in future. High benchmark prices today, continue to drive investment into technological innovation for cheaper extraction tomorrow. Little surprise that future oil prices are dipping under spot market dynamics: East Africa has merely added an attractive prospect for bullish supply side expectations. Peak is dead. The Great Game lives on…

Can you imagine what would happen to the price of oil if Defkalion Green Technologies actually produces a working LENR device in July as they claim - one which has been authorized and certified?

What an oil price swoon it will be if this new energy technology actually does pan out.