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Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam media?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Oct 2014, 10:57:26

Maiden – “What is the BEST option for renewable energies…”. When you speak about renewables it’s probably best to break it up into components. In Texas commercial wind power for residential usage has worked out well. But wind isn’t being developed as a sub for fossil fuels (mostly coal) but as a supplement. In CA it looks like individual solar might be getting a foothold. But now jump to the really big component of fossil fuel consumption in the US: motor fuels. Now you’re talking biofuels for the most part. And there’s a very wide range opinions about its economic viability.

Algae? Seems the common knock on it is the lack of scalability. I think someone once calculated that the entire state of Rhode Island would have to be turned into a giant algae farm to have even a minimal impact on our motor fuel consumption.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Thu 09 Oct 2014, 12:40:34

ROCKMAN wrote:Maiden – “What is the BEST option for renewable energies…”. When you speak about renewables it’s probably best to break it up into components. In Texas commercial wind power for residential usage has worked out well. But wind isn’t being developed as a sub for fossil fuels (mostly coal) but as a supplement. In CA it looks like individual solar might be getting a foothold. But now jump to the really big component of fossil fuel consumption in the US: motor fuels. Now you’re talking biofuels for the most part. And there’s a very wide range opinions about its economic viability.

Algae? Seems the common knock on it is the lack of scalability. I think someone once calculated that the entire state of Rhode Island would have to be turned into a giant algae farm to have even a minimal impact on our motor fuel consumption.

Fair enough. I was just wondering if it was possible for some other energy source to make up for our lack of fossil fuels. It seems like it would be very difficult to make up for the void left by fossil fuels.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Oct 2014, 13:12:17

Maiden - At least for the US THE big challenge is finding an alternate source for motor fuels since that's where we burn so much of the fossil fuels. And smart folks here have described that problem in detail. So far other then flights of fancy that won't ever happen I haven't seen much in the way of a solution. So far the only proven way to cut that dependency would be conservation. But that's proving to be a very slow process with respect to improving mpg. New car requirements are good but it typically takes a decade to change out the bulk of the autos on the road. But against that we have a growing population some of which will buy/drive more cars.

And globally? China has recently taken the title of largest auto producer in the world away from the US. Now throw in India whose population is demanding AND getting more vehicles. And what is the global response to this growing demand for more motor fuels? Higher oil prices which have led to more motor fuels which, even at higher prices, are satisfying the demand for more vehicles. Which, in turn, increases the demand for more oil.

When you add it all u the situation looks more like a predicament then a problem: problems can have a potential solution. Predicaments don't so al one can do is try to adjust to the situation as best as possible.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 09 Oct 2014, 13:12:54

DesuMaiden wrote:
Fair enough. I was just wondering if it was possible for some other energy source to make up for our lack of fossil fuels. It seems like it would be very difficult to make up for the void left by fossil fuels.

The good news is that we don't have to find a complete replacement all at once. What we have to come up with is a replacement for the shortfall each year and some of that shortfall can be made up by conservation and increased efficiency efforts. We perhaps need to find a liquid substitute for some 25 million barrels per day over twenty years not 85 million barrels per day next year.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 26 Oct 2014, 23:15:24

vtsnowedin wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
Fair enough. I was just wondering if it was possible for some other energy source to make up for our lack of fossil fuels. It seems like it would be very difficult to make up for the void left by fossil fuels.

The good news is that we don't have to find a complete replacement all at once. What we have to come up with is a replacement for the shortfall each year and some of that shortfall can be made up by conservation and increased efficiency efforts. We perhaps need to find a liquid substitute for some 25 million barrels per day over twenty years not 85 million barrels per day next year.

What liquid substitute can make up 25 million barrels?
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby Dybbuk » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 00:20:56

DesuMaiden wrote:I was just wondering if it was possible for some other energy source to make up for our lack of fossil fuels. It seems like it would be very difficult to make up for the void left by fossil fuels.


I've heard some promising figures quoted for thorium-based nuclear power. Does anyone know if they're onto something? With plentiful primary energy, the liquid fuel problem can be mitigated quite a bit.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 02:19:09

Dybbuk wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:I was just wondering if it was possible for some other energy source to make up for our lack of fossil fuels. It seems like it would be very difficult to make up for the void left by fossil fuels.


I've heard some promising figures quoted for thorium-based nuclear power. Does anyone know if they're onto something? With plentiful primary energy, the liquid fuel problem can be mitigated quite a bit.

The problem with thorium is that it is a nonrenewable resource like fossil fuels. I don't think there is any good renewable liquid fuel source that can replace oil for transportation such as automobiles, planes and ships.

Ethanol isn't the solution to our liquid fuel shortage because ethanol requires as much energy to produce it as you get from using it. I'm not sure what the EROEI of algae biofuels is. Hopefully, it is better than ethanol, but even if it has a good EROEI, I doubt we can produce it in large enough quantities as a substitute for oil. We consume 90 million barrels of oil a day. I doubt you can produce enough algae biofuel to substitute oil on that scale.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby Dybbuk » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 04:12:54

DesuMaiden wrote:The problem with thorium is that it is a nonrenewable resource like fossil fuels.


Sure. If you're looking for a permanent solution that will fix the problem for all eternity, thorium isn't it. But if it can provide a bridge to get us past the oil pinch (and maybe the gas and coal pinches as well) until we come up with something better, it's worth a try.

DesuMaiden wrote: Ethanol isn't the solution to our liquid fuel shortage because ethanol requires as much energy to produce it as you get from using it.


Ethanol is mostly useless as a source of primary energy, it is true. But liquid fuel doesn't have to necessarily provide positive primary energy. Energy is so much more useful in liquid form than solid or gas that maybe ethanol can be justified for certain uses where non-liquid forms of energy are impractical.
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Re: Why is peak oil almost never brought up in main steam me

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 23:40:12

Dybbuk wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:The problem with thorium is that it is a nonrenewable resource like fossil fuels.


Sure. If you're looking for a permanent solution that will fix the problem for all eternity, thorium isn't it. But if it can provide a bridge to get us past the oil pinch (and maybe the gas and coal pinches as well) until we come up with something better, it's worth a try.

Thorium can be a bridge, but it will not provide as a permanent solution to our energy crisis.
Dybbuk wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: Ethanol isn't the solution to our liquid fuel shortage because ethanol requires as much energy to produce it as you get from using it.


Ethanol is mostly useless as a source of primary energy, it is true. But liquid fuel doesn't have to necessarily provide positive primary energy. Energy is so much more useful in liquid form than solid or gas that maybe ethanol can be justified for certain uses where non-liquid forms of energy are impractical.

Is ethanol drinkable? I think it might be pretty tasty, but I don't think it isn't worthwhile as a fuel source. The fact that it takes as much energy to produce ethanol as you get from burning it makes it pointless as a fuel source. But it might be pretty tasty.
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