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Who's peaked, who hasn't.

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby Ender » Sat 19 Jun 2004, 20:57:30

Looking at the BP report, there are a few interesting trends in the biggest oil producers.

Of the top 25 or so producers, and putting the Gulf States to one side for a moment, it seems clear that the USA, Argentina, Norway, UK, Oman, Egypt and Indonesia are now in terminal decline. Their output is falling, never to rise again.

Venezeulan production has actually declined for three years in a row. It's not clear whether this is the industrial disputes there or whether it's something more permanant.

Brazil is interesting, but doesn't have a lot of proved reserves. It can probably ramp production up a bit further for a while yet, but it's doubtful whether this can offset the decline elsewhere.

China's production is still rising, and it's hard to say when it might peak, but China is a net importer so it can't make much difference to when the crisis arrives (only cover more of its own rapidly growing consumption).

Russia and Kasakh have been steadily increasing production and are the most important unknown quantities. There are capacity issues with how much they can export, but those can be fixed in time and with investment. They will be important in whether the declines elsewhere can be offset.

Canada and Mexico must both be close to the peak if not already there. Mexico has been revising its proved reserves downwards for years and its R/P ratio is now the same as the US. Canada is a bit of a special case because some of its production is the tarsands, and they're very energy intensive. Currently that energy comes from natural gas: and Canada is squeezed there with all the exports to the US. At some point, they will say 'terribly sorry, we have our own houses to heat', and that presumably means the tar sands project ends, slashing Canada's production just as Mexico peaks. It doesn't look good for North America....

The three biggest African producers (Libya, Nigeria and Algeria) who together with Angola made up a lot of the shortfall in '03 may be close to peak. Being Africa, they have their own set of stability issues. According to ASPO, Algeria is forecast to peak in 2006. Libya's increased production in '03 may have been a dead cat bounce, with three years of decline preceding it. Libya can't be far from peak.

Finally, turning to the five Gulf States where production will concentrate in the coming years.
* Iran may already be in terminal decline. Production bounced in '03 but this followed a long plateau and three years of decline. OPEC quotas? Investment issues? Or, as colin campbell would say, the immutable physics of their reserves?
* Saudi has now maxed their production and can probably pump no more. Can it increase capacity with more investment? Maybe, maybe not. If Ghawar isn't already dying, it must be close.
* It's hard to see Kuwait producing much more from that tiny area. It can probably sustain production for a few more years but not increase it by much.
* The United Arab Emirates are down the other end of the gulf, next to Oman. Their production history looks similar to Iran's and they may be close to their peak now.
* Iraq is the only Gulf State that can clearly increase it's production in the medium term with lots of investment. With the sabotage continuing, how long will this take, and can it ramp up fast enough to offset the decline elsewhere?

The best case is that beginning now, our oil supplies are concentrating in places like the Middle East and sub-saharan Africa: an unhealthy geopolitical dependence.

The worst case is that the beginning of peak oil is upon us, and the terminal decline that is clearly underway in around ten of the top 25 producers.

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Unread postby slick50 » Sun 20 Jun 2004, 00:54:06

Economagic.com is a great site to evaluate each countries oil production, among other issues. Venezuela seems to have peaked, even if you don't look at the strike by oil workers.

China: Daqing is their main oil field, it peaked 2 years ago, and is in terminal decline. Multiply tons of oil by 7.7 to find the barrel amounts. Daqing produces 1/3 of China's production. The decline of Daqing will stop exports to Japan. Production will drop to 10 million tons per year by 2020, down from its peak of 50 million tons/year. Unless China finds major new fields soon, we can say China has peaked.

Russia seems to be the wild card. The latest information from the Russians is that 2004/2005 production will be flat, and I am assuming a decline afterwards. But their infrastructure is in terrible shape and that fact may be hiding future potential.

Mexico's main field Canterrel is holding its own with nitrogen injection. The field is 27 years old. Saudi has its Ghawar, China its Daqing, USA its Prudhoe Bay and East Texas fields. These are the giants and they are all either in decline or in trouble.
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Unread postby Ender » Sun 20 Jun 2004, 02:03:49

slick50 wrote: Venezuela seems to have peaked, even if you don't look at the strike by oil workers.

China: Daqing is their main oil field, it peaked 2 years ago, and is in terminal decline. Unless China finds major new fields soon, we can say China has peaked.

Mexico's main field Canterrel is holding its own with nitrogen injection.


Venezuela: As an OPEC member it is a bit hard to say for sure. Certainly all the OPEC members can be expected to have lifted their production 02 -> 03 because quotas were going up and prices were rising: a failure to lift production, as in Venezeula, implies they couldn't.

What's your evidence that it was depletion and not the strike?

If China has peaked that's a real problem. China is the fourth biggest producer after Saudi, Russia and Iran... no it's not, I wasn't looking at North America....

As for Mexico, just how long can production be held up with nitrogen injection?

So of the top ten oil producers (Saudi, Russia, USA, Iran, Mexico, China, Norway, Venezuela, Canada and the UAE):
* Two are clearly in terminal decline
* Two more may well be but it's too early/the data isn't good enough to say for sure
* One is probably past the peak for conventional oil but things are obfuscated by energy-intensive tar sands
* One shows flat production and from its R/P ratio is probably at peak now
* The remaining three are OPEC members with all the politics that involves, and it's hard to say what their true position might be.
* Only Russia is likely to have potential to significantly lift production any further, and then only with major investment.

In other words six of the top ten producers have already peaked or are likely doing so now.
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Unread postby The_Virginian » Mon 21 Jun 2004, 19:15:15

OK but what about the "heavy" oil form Venzuala ? How much is their reall, and what percentage can be extracted?
[urlhttp://www.youtube.com/watchv=Ai4te4daLZs&feature=related[/url] "My soul longs for the candle and the spices. If only you would pour me a cup of wine for Havdalah...My heart yearning, I shall lift up my eyes to g-d, who provides for my needs day and night."
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Unread postby Ender » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 08:28:28

The_Virginian wrote:OK but what about the "heavy" oil form Venzuala ? How much is their reall, and what percentage can be extracted?


Well, that's a hot topic, isn't it?

But it's doubtful, if their conventional oil has passed it's peak, whether they can ramp up heavy oil production on enough of a scale to offset that decline. Remember that it is very energy intensive.
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Unread postby smiley » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 15:51:52

According to the BP data Venezuela's "peak" production was in 1998. That's 4 years before the strikes. If I'm correct OPEC started tightening its quota in 2000.

Campbell's assessment also suggests that Venezuela is in terminal decline.

http://www.asponews.org/ASPO.newsletter.022.php#106

So Venezuela is indeed in decline. It would make sense. Venezuela has been a strong supporter for actions by OPEC to limit production, probably in an effort to mask their own decline.

The decline rates must be very high. According to the BP report the production has dropped by 500.000 b/d since 1998. However EIA reports that they added about 500.000 b/d of extra heavy crude production in that period.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/venez.html

This would suggest a decline for conventional crude of 1.000.000 b/d since 1998 !!

It makes you wonder. If extra heavy crude is not even able to halt the decline of a single country, how can one expect it to save the world?
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Unread postby Ender » Tue 22 Jun 2004, 17:32:32

smiley wrote:According to the BP data Venezuela's "peak" production was in 1998. That's 4 years before the strikes. If I'm correct OPEC started tightening its quota in 2000.
So Venezuela is indeed in decline. It would make sense. Venezuela has been a strong supporter for actions by OPEC to limit production, probably in an effort to mask their own decline.


It would seem so. I usually ignore a dip in one year and wait for there to be two years in a row of declining production, with no other explanation, before calling it terminal decline. Hence with the 03 report (with 02 figures) I wasn't ready to call Norway (but strongly suspected it, with the UK sector of the North Sea having peaked in '99).

So Venezuela too has peaked.
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Unread postby The_Virginian » Wed 23 Jun 2004, 06:12:47

Och.

Thanks for the answers Amigos.
[urlhttp://www.youtube.com/watchv=Ai4te4daLZs&feature=related[/url] "My soul longs for the candle and the spices. If only you would pour me a cup of wine for Havdalah...My heart yearning, I shall lift up my eyes to g-d, who provides for my needs day and night."
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Unread postby Ender » Sat 26 Jun 2004, 09:14:54

slick50 wrote:Economagic.com is a great site to evaluate each countries oil production, among other issues.


Can you give a more specific URL? I had a quick look but couldn't find the information you're referring to.
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Unread postby Ender » Sat 26 Jun 2004, 09:26:34

1. Saudi: Nobody knows the true posision. Ghawar may be under pressure.

2. Russia: Probably some capacity left, if the infrastructure to export it is there. Large gas reserves.

3. USA: Peaked 1970 and clearly in terminal decline. Also approaching end of gas endowment, draining Canada in the process. Voracious consumption means more and more imports and lopsided trade deficit.

4. Iran: Probably near peak and certainly producing at capacity now. May be able to lift production medium term with major investment before entering terminal decline. As an OPEC member it is hard to be sure of the true position.

5. Mexico: R/P ratio suggests close to peak. Dip in production 99-01 probably offset by more deepwater production. Probably at peak now.

6. China: Not enough data and too early to be certain, but may well be past its peak. Will become more and more of a net importer.

7. Norway: Peaked 2001 and now clearly in terminal decline: if UK experience is anything to go by, decline will be rapid.

8. Venezuela: Peaked 1998 and now in terminal decline, though OPEC membership and the strike cloud the picture a little. Heavy oil production is energy intensive and has scale limitations.

9. Canada: Probably at peak now for conventional oil. The tar sands project will come to a grinding halt when the gas cliff hits, probably in the next year or so.

10. UAE: Difficult to be certain of the true position. Failed to restore production to 1998 levels in 03, and geographically next to Oman which is in terminal decline having peaked in 2001.
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Unread postby Ender » Sat 26 Jun 2004, 09:32:11

Oh, and just in case someone was thinking the next few producers on the list can ramp up their production and take up the slack, #11 (UK) is also in terminal decline.
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 07 Nov 2013, 19:31:04

Anyone have an up to date list? I know I ask about every six months but in my defense I had a hard drive crash about four months ago and had to start over accumulating links.
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby Quinny » Fri 08 Nov 2013, 12:39:49

I thought I'd seen a graph recently on here somewhere, but maybe I was imagining it :)
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Nov 2013, 13:24:18

From: http://peak-oil.org/peak-oil-reference/ ... y-country/

I’ll dig for something more recent than 2009/2010 but I doubt there's ben much of change in the last couple of years.

"Of the 42 largest oil producing countries in the world, representing roughly 98% of all oil production, 30 have either plateaued or passed their peaks. World oil production data varies, depending on the database. Also, the definitions of “oil” differ from source to source: Some count only conventional crude plus lease condensates, while others will include natural gas liquids and unconventional sources such as synthetic oil made from Canadian tar sands, biofuels, and other liquids. Finally, reasonable observers may differ as to whether a given producer has plateaued, or might yet see a second production peak. However, these differences are negligible in the context of the global production outlook.

Here are two views of the world’s top oil producers, with the peak production dates of each country:"
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby John_A » Fri 08 Nov 2013, 18:18:35

Ender wrote:The best case is that beginning now, our oil supplies are concentrating in places like the Middle East and sub-saharan Africa: an unhealthy geopolitical dependence.

The worst case is that the beginning of peak oil is upon us, and the terminal decline that is clearly underway in around ten of the top 25 producers.

Comments?


Yes...oil supplies obviously did NOT concentrate in the Middle East as increases in Russia, Brazil, and most importantly the United States and Canada kicked in, and the now obvious reversal of "terminal decline" in the US is causing all sorts of geopolitical issues, including worrying the Saudi's that they might lose 8% of the their market share over the next few years. Oh...and terminal decline? Sometimes isn't. So of all the countries who have peaked, the next obvious question would be, how many of THEM aren't suffering terminal decline and can increase production under the new technologies faster than at any time in their history, now that the US can show them how? Interesting question....that one is new...and Heinberg hasn't written a bad book on it yet, so we'll have to save the giggling on that topic for later. And those peaks? The theory has been revised since 2004 to account for first the idea that peaks aren't really peaks, but plateaus, and then we get HIGHER plateaus to reflect the fact that it isn't necessarily a terminal decline after a plateau either.

But almost a decade later, it is surprising how peak oil didn't quite turn out as was hoped.
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 08 Nov 2013, 18:26:27

hoped? 8O

Explain shorty.
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby John_A » Fri 08 Nov 2013, 18:36:13

vision-master wrote:hoped? 8O

Explain shorty.


Of course I can explain shortly.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... tages.html

Oil Shortages Look Certain by 2007
- LNG to the Rescue?

For North A merica, natural gas shortages are here now and can only worsen. The oil production numbers are bearing out that by 2007 demand will have permanently exceeded supply and production capacity. In both cases the outlook is not good. For natural gas the only solution is the importation of liquefied natural gas or LNG.

“By the year 2010, the gap between what is needed
and conventional sources
will be 6 Tcf/year, or 16 Bcf/day.”

PART II -- Oil Shortages After 2007

By 2007, production capacity will have declined by 3-4mn b/d. Yet this decline will be offset by 8mn b/d of new capacity drawn from the many new projects expected to come on stream over the next few years.28 This leaves a surplus of 4mn b/d in spare capacity. Yet global demand is growing by over 1 Mbpd each year.29 So 3 years of demand growth will reduce our spare capacity to 1mn b/d by the start of 2007. As very little new capacity is set to come on stream in 2007, that remaining 1 Mbpd spare capacity will likely disappear before 2008.

By 2007, all of us will be affected by the North American NG shortage. And not very long after 2007, we will begin experiencing the first global energy shortages. To quote former British environmental minister Michael Meacher, we are facing… "the sharpest and perhaps the most violent dislocation (of society) in recent history."31
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 08 Nov 2013, 21:57:07

"it is surprising how peak oil didn't quite turn out as was hoped.". HELL YEAH!!! Hoped with every ounce of our souls. The oil patch, that is. Thanks to the ever deteriorating energy situation oil has increased about 400% in the last 10 years or so. Years ago I was siting on a piece of crap Russian drillship doing 42 day hitches that took me about 24 hours transit time each way. Now I sit in a nice office just 10 hours a day that's just a 30 minute drive from my on bed. Even better I pulling in 2X the pay and earning a piece of the company. And part of that piece will come from the horizontal well I drilled (making about $5 million/year) in a 67 year old "depleted" conventional field. Got 8 more like it ready to drill. I generated this play in 1996 but couldn't get it drilled until oil prices boomed. Me and every other gray-hair were praying for one more boom before we attained room temperature. I know geologists that couldn't find oil in their drive way that are pulling in $180k per year drilling shales wells. And the principles at Petrohawk divided up $12 billion when they sold their chunk of the Eagle Ford.

Hoped for...dreamed of...fantasized about...prayed for. HELL YEAH!!! We are delivered!!! Oh...the rest of you? Tough sh*t. LOL.
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 09 Nov 2013, 06:30:55

ROCKMAN wrote:"it is surprising how peak oil didn't quite turn out as was hoped.". HELL YEAH!!! Hoped with every ounce of our souls. The oil patch, that is. Thanks to the ever deteriorating energy situation oil has increased about 400% in the last 10 years or so. Years ago I was siting on a piece of crap Russian drillship doing 42 day hitches that took me about 24 hours transit time each way. Now I sit in a nice office just 10 hours a day that's just a 30 minute drive from my on bed. Even better I pulling in 2X the pay and earning a piece of the company. And part of that piece will come from the horizontal well I drilled (making about $5 million/year) in a 67 year old "depleted" conventional field. Got 8 more like it ready to drill. I generated this play in 1996 but couldn't get it drilled until oil prices boomed. Me and every other gray-hair were praying for one more boom before we attained room temperature. I know geologists that couldn't find oil in their drive way that are pulling in $180k per year drilling shales wells. And the principles at Petrohawk divided up $12 billion when they sold their chunk of the Eagle Ford.

Hoped for...dreamed of...fantasized about...prayed for. HELL YEAH!!! We are delivered!!! Oh...the rest of you? Tough sh*t. LOL.


Thanks for the link Rockman, just what I was looking for. I am happy for you doing well, but it kind of stinks on ice for the rest of us out here in real world land far away from the east and left coasts.
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Re: Who's peaked, who hasn't.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 09 Nov 2013, 09:51:09

T - It stinks for the vast majority of the world. That was the point by my rather inflammatory remark. The constant drone that good times are here due to increased US oil production almost never touches on the parallel pain brought on by the higher prices that created that increased production. Our economy took a healthy hit but look where we were compared to countries that already had crippling conditions before the price boom. And then add the non-monetary price we've paid. I would be glad to swap my increased income to not have those visions of shiny metal boxes coming in to Dover. If folks don't understand that reference they can check out http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/us/22 ... .html?_r=0.

Everyone in the oil patch gladly cashes our paychecks. But it doesn't mean we don't fully understand the effects. It would be great if we could concentrate all you energy losers into camps where we didn't have to mingle with you...life would be much more pleasant. But the Germans tried that approach many years ago and got some very bad PR and we already get beat up enough by the MSM. LOL.
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