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Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 09:56:46

Wind and solar keep making incremental improvements and we still find oil here and there, both of which push the energy crisis further into the future, whereas we seem to be almost completely unable to reduce carbon emissions significantly.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:17:24

I would assume the answer would be dependent upon whom you're asking.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:23:43

Well okay let me rephrase which is more likely to kill you.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:31:11

Tikib wrote:Well okay let me rephrase which is more likely to kill you.


Neither, the most likely thing to kill me is either an accident, or old age.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:38:29

Well, in my case, it would be neither...my multiple sclerosis will solve all my problems first. LOL. And for most of the world that's 50+ years old I suspect they also have similar anticipations. Which, if you think about it, is why there's not a ground swell of efforts to actually change the energy or climate situation: many are focused on hanging on to what the have until the sweet relief death ultimately brings to them. LOL.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:42:02

In the short term, peak oil will do us in before climate change. What is the short term? Its not tomorrow and its not a hundred years from now.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:44:46

Tanada wrote:
Tikib wrote:Well okay let me rephrase which is more likely to kill you.


Neither, the most likely thing to kill me is either an accident, or old age.


Not true actually there was a study out the other day showing that your more likely to die from something like a pandemic which kills lots of people than a car accident etc.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:47:09

Cog wrote:In the short term, peak oil will do us in before climate change. What is the short term? Its not tomorrow and its not a hundred years from now.


I have seen predictions of a liquid fuels crisis by 2025.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:47:28

Leading causes of death in the USA are not pandemics. Try cancer and heart disease on for size.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 10:49:32

Tikib wrote:
Cog wrote:In the short term, peak oil will do us in before climate change. What is the short term? Its not tomorrow and its not a hundred years from now.


I have seen predictions of a liquid fuels crisis by 2025.


I see predictions all the time. None of which have been correct.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:01:39

You really think theirs enough oil to last past 2100?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby baha » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:02:12

Again I have a hard time seeing short term...long term humans have lived without oil for 100's of 1000's of years. We have never lived without a habitable planet. So my vote goes to CC.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:19:12

The answer to that question depends more upon where you live than anything else. If you live in one of those places which will lose out to more virulent economic powers over energy, then peak oil. If you live too close to the equator, or on a low lying island, then climate change. Both of them will cause immigration issues. There's no sense trying to parse those problems. If the one doesn't get you, then the other one will, when it comes to immigration.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:31:53

Tikib wrote:Wind and solar keep making incremental improvements and we still find oil here and there, both of which push the energy crisis further into the future, whereas we seem to be almost completely unable to reduce carbon emissions significantly.


Of all possible black swans I think global financial crisis is the closest one likely to kill billions.

But to your question.....ff have caused cc. The amount of ff already burned has most likely determined a deep cc crisis. So I don't think you can separate the two.

IIRC Limits To Growth basically says that when one trend turns bad then the rest of the trends become unstable and will likely turn bad also. It's kind of like having 6 drunk teenagers in a canoe. Which on will capsize it? Who is responsible?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:40:32

Tikib wrote:Wind and solar keep making incremental improvements and we still find oil here and there, both of which push the energy crisis further into the future, whereas we seem to be almost completely unable to reduce carbon emissions significantly.


Measured at Mauna Loa, we haven't lowered atmospheric carbon at all, with ALL our CUMULATIVE efforts.

And peak oil has folks around here who declared it happening a decade ago, right on schedule. So we can all see the consequences of it, a decade after it happened. Real gasoline prices being about what they were in the early 70's, and Americans are out buying pickmeup trucks, and driving them all around because we have a glut of supply. So which ones seems of more importance knowing these two sets of facts?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:51:28

you keep on with the same nonsense AdamB just because the rate of oil coming of the ground is fast it doesn't mean there is much left.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 11:58:08

Tikib wrote:
Cog wrote:In the short term, peak oil will do us in before climate change. What is the short term? Its not tomorrow and its not a hundred years from now.


I have seen predictions of a liquid fuels crisis by 2025.

Seriously?

How many predictions of a short term liquid fuels crisis have we seen on just this site in the past decade?

And so this "data point" is significant how?

Ironically, the small efforts toward AGW mitigation help mitigate peak oil as well. If it actually happens and begins to bite in a few decades or so, the capabilities of producing green energy (at a cost) will GREATLY mitigate that from crisis towards inconvenience (since even though green energy progress is pitifully slow, it will greatly accumulate over the next few decades as its economics becomes more favorable).

Not that I'd expect the fast crash doomers to acknowledge that, given the current popular hokum like ETP theory.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 12:05:54

Tikib wrote:
Cog wrote:In the short term, peak oil will do us in before climate change. What is the short term? Its not tomorrow and its not a hundred years from now.


I have seen predictions of a liquid fuels crisis by 2025.


I have seen predictions of a running out of liquid fuels by the late 1980's. That one came from a President of the US back when that meant something. So your predictions are claiming it is now 2025? As long as it wasn't made the folks who claimed it during the 80's (Jimmy Carter and Colin Campbell), 1990's (Hirsch and Colin Campbell), 2000's (all of the failed peak prognosticators of the last decade), then maybe they have some credibility. Assuming they didn't use the same ridiculous methods that have already failed across the past quarter century.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 12:09:22

Tikib wrote:You really think theirs enough oil to last past 2100?


If by "last" you mean "oil is still being produced", then short of something else that wipes out our species in that time, sure. No problem.

Are you sure you aren't looking for a REAL doomer site, the old kind of brimstone and fire kind that existed before peak oil turned out to be just cheap oil and supply glut?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 12:32:40

Tikib wrote:You really think theirs enough oil to last past 2100?


Depends what you mean, will there be enough to be the primary energy source we use for our civilization in 2100? Probably not, but if you mean enough oil that we can still get some out of the ground to use for some purpose then sure, we will still be pumping oil in 2100.
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