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Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 12:51:18

This is one of those many threads at peakoil.com where the children congregate to play out their peak oil denial and fears . . . in a safe place. So sweet

It's got to be very calming for you guys and gals to consider runaway global warming and climate change doom. It's a rather unlikely occurance (see IPCC-5) and even if it does eventually happen . . . it will be way past your bedtime lol
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 13:04:04

To me, it is all of the same piece, including over-population.

I suspect that peak oil will strike first, followed by economic downturn and political and military strife, quickly followed by a food production shortfall. As soon as climate change impacts grain production, it is all over. Not to mention, also, that in the USA, aquifer depletion will also strike shortly after all the others have had their bit to play. Our system of organization will basically continue until it cannot any longer and there will then be a complete discontinuity because the two ways of life do not share anything in common and, in the end, climate change will put out any hope for returning to a simpler way of life. I don't think one can get any more doomerish than that scenario. All coming within 100 years and, possibly, much less, but that is the only unknown to me.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Mar 2017, 13:33:41

As of today what will likely kill you? From the World Health Organization:

Top 10 causes of death worldwide

Of the 56.4 million deaths worldwide in 2015, more than half (54%) were due to the top 10 causes. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke are the world’s biggest killers, accounting for a combined 15 million deaths in 2015. These diseases have remained the leading causes of death globally in the last 15 years.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease claimed 3.2 million lives in 2015, while lung cancer (along with trachea and bronchus cancers) caused 1.7 million deaths. Diabetes killed 1.6 million people in 2015, up from less than 1 million in 2000. Deaths due to dementias more than doubled between 2000 and 2015, making it the 7th leading cause of global deaths in 2015.

Lower respiratory infections remained the most deadly communicable disease, causing 3.2 million deaths worldwide in 2015. The death rate from diarrhoeal diseases almost halved between 2000 and 2015, but still caused 1.4 million deaths in 2015. Similarly, tuberculosis killed fewer people during the same period, but is still among the top 10 causes with a death toll of 1.4 million. HIV/AIDS is no longer among the world’s top 10 causes of death, having killed 1.1 million people in 2015 compared with 1.5 million in 2000.

Road injuries killed 1.3 million people in 2015, about three-quarters (76%) of whom were men and boys.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 22:31:14

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Seriously?

How many predictions of a short term liquid fuels crisis have we seen on just this site in the past decade?

And so this "data point" is significant how?

Ironically, the small efforts toward AGW mitigation help mitigate peak oil as well. If it actually happens and begins to bite in a few decades or so, the capabilities of producing green energy (at a cost) will GREATLY mitigate that from crisis towards inconvenience (since even though green energy progress is pitifully slow, it will greatly accumulate over the next few decades as its economics becomes more favorable).

Not that I'd expect the fast crash doomers to acknowledge that, given the current popular hokum like ETP theory.


A liquid fuels crisis is significant because that's the "peak oil" you mention in your next paragraph. And since green energy is supposed to "greatly mitigate" it, then one may assume from your diction that the effects of peak oil will be grave. Otherwise, there should be very little to mitigate.

Another thing to keep in mind is the implication that the effects of global warming may last much longer even with a decrease in CO2 emissions. There may be more details in the global warming threads.

A third thing to consider is the point that green energy requires liquid fuels for mining, manufacturing, etc. There should be more details in the renewable energy threads.

"Favorable economics" means that profits and ROIs from "green" energy will be the same if not better than those of once-cheap oil. That's not likely for reasons given in threads about energy returns and capitalism.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 22:33:22

The bigger problem will likely consist of a combination of the effects of global warming (with environmental damage), peak oil (together with resource problems for fresh water, various minerals, etc), and increasing debt:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g-collapse
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby GregT » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 01:58:33

Tikib wrote:Well okay let me rephrase which is more likely to kill you.


Considering that nobody that I am aware of has died from peak oil yet, and climate change continues to kill thousands every year, my vote would be for climate change.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 03:16:51

For me old age,for the world climate change today, PO tomorrow depending on location.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 05:50:52

ROCKMAN wrote:Road injuries killed 1.3 million people in 2015, about three-quarters (76%) of whom were men and boys.


So cars are part of a feminist conspiracy to kill of the males of the species 8O ?

Seriously:- that list you posted was a good reminder of the types of things that might reduce human population in a time of crises (either cc or ff or economic and trade collapse).
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby dissident » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 10:22:57

In spite of all the bleating about glut, there is none. We are already in a peak oil transition regime with a global recession curtailing demand and giving us the low oil price. The low oil price will likely persist for a few years since there is no indication that the global economy will make grand recovery. But the clock is ticking on the second sledgehammer blow when the supply of oil starts to rapidly decline. The current plateau in production is not a free lunch. Aside from the Bakken sideshow the oil price has not suppressed hyper-extraction of conventional oil. This is the purest form of borrowing from the future: the potential Gaussian (i.e. Hubbert) future production tail has been compressed into the present and thus will have a vastly steeper decline than we saw in term of the shape of the production increase since the 1850s.

After the supply starts to crash we will have unstable price regime which will try to spike beyond any ability of the market to bear and then will crash, and then start the cycle again. This regime is likely to arrive before 2040. But climate change effects will only start to become significant (relatively, since we already have them) after 2040. So we are going to be slammed with two massive shocks in succession: collapse of the oil-based global economy, quickly followed by major agricultural failure (not due just to oil and tractors, but to drought and excessive rain). Humanity is going to be in all-time worst civilization collapse by the 2050s. It is not going to be like the slow decline of Rome with people heading back to the land. Rome was basically agrarian and failure was in the form of territorial loss. Our civilization will fail on a whole new level through destruction of the economic fabric and no transition to agrarian life (which would require most people to die out anyway even if climate change was not happening).
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 10:54:14

dissident wrote:In spite of all the bleating about glut, there is none. We are already in a peak oil transition regime with a global recession curtailing demand and giving us the low oil price. The low oil price will likely persist for a few years since there is no indication that the global economy will make grand recovery. But the clock is ticking on the second sledgehammer blow when the supply of oil starts to rapidly decline. The current plateau in production is not a free lunch. Aside from the Bakken sideshow the oil price has not suppressed hyper-extraction of conventional oil. This is the purest form of borrowing from the future: the potential Gaussian (i.e. Hubbert) future production tail has been compressed into the present and thus will have a vastly steeper decline than we saw in term of the shape of the production increase since the 1850s.
You sound like another wacko ETP'er. Get back into your ghetto you punk :-x

dissident wrote:After the supply starts to crash we will have unstable price regime which will try to spike beyond any ability of the market to bear and then will crash, and then start the cycle again. This regime is likely to arrive before 2040. But climate change effects will only start to become significant (relatively, since we already have them) after 2040. So we are going to be slammed with two massive shocks in succession: collapse of the oil-based global economy, quickly followed by major agricultural failure (not due just to oil and tractors, but to drought and excessive rain). Humanity is going to be in all-time worst civilization collapse by the 2050s. It is not going to be like the slow decline of Rome with people heading back to the land. Rome was basically agrarian and failure was in the form of territorial loss. Our civilization will fail on a whole new level through destruction of the economic fabric and no transition to agrarian life (which would require most people to die out anyway even if climate change was not happening).

But your timing is off by a several decades. That 'unstable price regime' started back around 2005 (the peak of conventional oil) when petroleum climbed inexplicably to $100 (whose fault? nasty banks?, mortgage companies? idiot borrowers?, speculators? the Fed?) and dropped back to $30. Unprecedented. Now for some unfathomable reason OPEC has been neutered ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Sounds like a very 'unstable price regime' is about to explode TOMMORROW!. HOLY jeez :?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby dissident » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 16:20:19

I know, anyone who does not believe in the divine providence of the market is a wacko.

When I talk about unstable I mean really unstable, bouncing from $30 to $1000 in a few weeks and then crashing again. The current spike, followed by "crash" is happening over a time frame of 10 years. Think weeks in the future and no stability whatsoever in terms of forecasting and expectations. But a lot of other price destabilization will occur at the same time so the global system will be in a full bore neural seizure.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 16:33:36

dissident wrote:I know, anyone who does not believe in the divine providence of the market is a wacko.

When I talk about unstable I mean really unstable, bouncing from $30 to $1000 in a few weeks and then crashing again. The current spike, followed by "crash" is happening over a time frame of 10 years. Think weeks in the future and no stability whatsoever in terms of forecasting and expectations. But a lot of other price destabilization will occur at the same time so the global system will be in a full bore neural seizure.

I fully expect that chaos. It will be short-lived.
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'full bore neural seizure' lol
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 17:10:53

dissident wrote:In spite of all the bleating about glut, there is none. We are already in a peak oil transition regime with a global recession curtailing demand and giving us the low oil price.


Reality check....

1) Glut persists, inventories and over supply higher than multi year averages in the past..check..
2) No current global recession...check..
3) Demand increasing through current reporting periods..check....

Dissident, may we ask about the location of your reality, compared to the one the rest of us reside in?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 17:13:58

I second what Jerider stated. It is ALL part of the reckoning process of our human population in overshoot. Time to pay the piper. In order of peak oil first with its devastating impacts and then climate change quite likely the nail to the coffin
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 17:28:40

AdamB wrote:
dissident wrote:In spite of all the bleating about glut, there is none. We are already in a peak oil transition regime with a global recession curtailing demand and giving us the low oil price.


Reality check....

1) Glut persists, inventories and over supply higher than multi year averages in the past..check..

It's not a supply glut, rather a demand dearth.
AdamB wrote:2) No current global recession...check..

the list of countries that are failing or collapsing outright is getting longer by the month: Brazil, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Greece, Honduras, Libya, Mali, Mexico, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, etc.

AdamB wrote:3) Demand increasing through current reporting periods..check....
this week or last. Demand may be increasing in your burb, but not in the last decade in the rest of the world.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 17:33:22

onlooker wrote:I second what Jerider stated. It is ALL part of the reckoning process of our human population in overshoot. Time to pay the piper. In order of peak oil first with its devastating impacts and then climate change quite likely the nail to the coffin


Jerider basically restated the standard LATOC dogma. It didn't work when LATOC claimed it was going to happen, is there any reason to believe it will happen next peak oil, when it didn't surface during the last one?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 17:35:37

AdamB, what's latoc? How do pronounce that?

onlooker wrote:I second what Jerider stated. It is ALL part of the reckoning process of our human population in overshoot. Time to pay the piper. In order of peak oil first with its devastating impacts and then climate change quite likely the nail to the coffin

We ignore peak phosphorus, copper, H-3, indium, gallium, germanium, neodymium and dysprosium at our own peril. Did I leave anything out?

yeah probably
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 17:45:18

pstarr wrote:the list of countries that are failing or collapsing outright is getting longer by the month: Brazil, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Greece, Honduras, Libya, Mali, Mexico, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, etc.


Fortunate that when countries are let down by their leaders, it doesn't affect global demand, doesn't cause global recession, and had nothing to do with the US turning on new oil production in amounts rivaling Ghawar.

Nobody is arguing that silly people can wreck a country, and were doing just that before you were born, so it is pretty old hat that they keep doing it. I recommend they stop, but they don't appear to be any more able to change then you are to dispute the facts of the matter.

psatarr wrote:
AdamB wrote:3) Demand increasing through current reporting periods..check....
this week or last. Demand may be increasing in your burb, but not in the last decade in the rest of the world.


The chart has already been provided showing the exact opposite, including quite strong demand growth from 2013 right on through 2016. Like I said, making up facts won't save you, if you want to pretend to know something, why don't you google it first, just to make sure you aren't getting "carried away"?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 18:11:09

Phosphorous is a big one , our food supply, Speaking of which is endangered by soil depletion/erosion and desertification and did I mention bee die off.
Yeah, at this rate we may just manage to pretty much wipe ourselves out even before climate change really gets nasty. I did not mention world wide nuclear meltdown. I vote we just ignore the simpleton deniers, their arguments are looking too foolish already
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Mar 2017, 18:15:25

The cornies do blather on. For AdamB sake I must mention the other merely moribund Euro economies Portugal, Italy, Romania, Ukraine, Finland, Croatia, and Switzerland. And there are the big international sickies. Argentina, Japan etc.

Oh, that right. Australia, New Zealand, and Germany economies are just bubbly :) How about that Chinese Miracle?
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