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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 15:23:40

Newfie wrote:Ibon San d:

Does the majority of humanity deserve compassion when they lack the humility and respect toward the natural world? This is the tricky one to answer. I want to say NO but the fact that the majority of humanity has not been given the chance to even understand that question in some ways makes them not culpable. If you are born in a completely human environment how can you be held culpable to the genocide of natural ecosystems?


This oddly reminded me of catechism classes, which I failed for asking too many questions.

What I was taught was that a heathen who never hears the word of God will go to purgatory for some undefined long period. But one shoe hears the word, even briefly, and does not accept the One True Religion will surely go to Hell.

I thought the similar logic was interesting.


That is exactly what I was also thinking about as I wrote it. That was no accident. If you want to be saved you have to accept god and Jesus.

If you want to be saved from Biblical consequences of human overshoot you have to have the humility to worship those forces that hold us in check... Worshiping the Overshoot Predator. It is a theme I come back to.

Consider this. Although atheists love to point out the growing secular world and that religion is waning I think they grossly miss the point that humans are inclined when facing natural adversity to willingly submit to the higher power of a creator. The fact that so many do this even today when we largely control nature underscores this.

Fast forward to the next 200 years of contraction and all the myriad of consequences that will rifle through our global population. All of this will be incorporated into the mythology of the survivors, into their inclination to find meaning and strength through a god like entity. Reinforced by the return to a higher level of resiliency following the correction. You know, god bestows his blessings once again... etc. etc.

And thus we may find ourselves having incorporated spiritual commandments into the framework of some future religiosity, having evolved from a morphed existing religion or something brand new arising. Same thing in the end.

The Religious belief systems prior to the Great Collapse of human overshoot, the Monotheism of Christianity, Islam and Judaism, the eastern practices of Bhuddism and Confucian thought, hindu and all the rest, they will be at some future dates all considered a basket of religions that dealt with humanity's concern for his fellow man, the commandments of virtuous behavior with each other and ones eternal soul through reincarnation, heaven and hell etc.

The Post Collapse religions will be marked by a new orientation, one whose commandments focus on harmony and balance with the natural world. An understanding that all of the higher spiritual ideals rest on a bedrock of a healthy mother earth. That which we had forsaken leading up to the Great Collapse.

The gates of the garden of Eden once again opened, knowledge combined with humility towards all of gods creatures. Knowledge used to enhance this harmony. Scripture new and improved.

And KJ thinks we are incapable of cultural evolution! Phooey.

I can dream can't I?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:36:03

Yeah, we could use a religion that preaches the reverse of "be fruitful and multiply".
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:51:50

asg70 wrote:Yeah, we could use a religion that preaches the reverse of "be fruitful and multiply".


We had a religion like that.

The Shakers practiced celibacy and procreation was banned in their religion.

Of course they quickly died out because there weren't any children to keep it going.

Cheers!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 17:09:13

Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:Yeah, we could use a religion that preaches the reverse of "be fruitful and multiply".


We had a religion like that.

The Shakers practiced celibacy and procreation was banned in their religion.

Of course they quickly died out because there weren't any children to keep it going.

Cheers!


That is not entirely accurate. The Shakers practiced adoption as a religious obligation and when the adopted children reached adulthood they were sent out to explore the world much like the Amish tradition of Rumspringa. Those who wished to become adult members of the church took oath of celibacy and went on to adopt children of their own. When the laws in most states were changed eliminating orphanages and placing children into foster care instead and this was coupled with the legalization of abortion the combination of the low availability of adoptable children and losses from adults choosing to leave the church after seeing the wider world is what doomed the Shaker denomination to extinction.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 17:22:21

Another group whose way of life is disappearing due to modern influences is the Amish
http://notquiteamishliving.com/2014/08/ ... mish-gone/
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/ar ... fe/261327/
Long overdue probably
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 22:41:16

I think 1% was mentioned up there somewhere... :roll:

It is hard to argue against simple arithmetic.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... net-growth

Research by Oxfam suggests that the world’s richest 1% (if your household has an income of £70,000 or more, this means you) produce about 175 times as much carbon as the poorest 10%.


(thnx to ger at asif for this)

But it's in the economic uppermost stratosphere (magnetosphere? plutosphere??) where things get really...interesting:

Oxfam 2015:

https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.o ... 115-en.pdf

"In 2010, it took 388 billionaires to equal the wealth of the bottom half of the world‟s population;

by 2014, the figure had fallen to just 80 billionaires..."

https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.o ... 117-en.pdf

In 2017, that number has fallen to eight.
(thnx for this to sid at asif)

Ibon, I like the way you dream! :)


For Newf and other interested parties: Personally, I have now dropped out of the global 1% as defined above, and am working to further 'downsize.' Others could do the same. What to do with acquired assets is an interesting question to which there is no one good answer, of course. Certainly I wouldn't advocate using them to fly all over the place (sorry, Plant), not even to some wonderful eco-resort in Central America (sorry, Ibon :) ). Further, priorities would be to pull money out of (or at least minimize investment in) things like fossil-death-fuels (sorry, ROCK :P ), and the meat and dairy industries (along with minimizing one's personal consumption of the same). After that, many possibilities arise, from granting land to native communities and other entities who show promise of respectful care in something like perpetuity, to perhaps purchases many here have already made in home solar and other self-sustainable or energy conservation systems. All of these and many others have their possibilities and pitfall of course, and it would be a nice conversation to have (and useful to me), though perhaps on another thread, especially if we can keep the bile out of the conversation. :-D :-D
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 19:30:07

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... urce=atlfb
Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 00:41:15

onlooker wrote:https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/07/a-road-trip-to-the-end-of-the-world/532914/?utm_source=atlfb
Burning Fossil Fuels Almost Ended All Life on Earth


As it is poised to do again, by our hands.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 18 Apr 2018, 12:50:54

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esGQn1TlVNg




Edge of Extinction: How Long Do We Have?

Now <=10 Years Prof McPherson 2026 its over for most Homo Sapiens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPdc75epOEw




10:11
Guy McPherson - Human Extinction within 10 years
Niels van der Wolk
257 Tsd. Aufrufe



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPdc75epOEw

Arctic Methane Emergency: Methane released by the Gigaton
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 18 Apr 2018, 15:04:44

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 09:09:48

Hunting and illegal poaching has dropped off severely for the past 10 years here at La Amistad National Park that our reserve borders here in Panama. The park suffers more from illegal deforestation to open up pastures on the unregulated Carribean slopes of the park.

Specifically about poaching, the locals here tell me that the falling off of poaching is because the hunters are all aging and the young generation emerging is not interested in going into the woods to hunt because they replaced guns with their cell phones. It's a joke that has alot of truth. So this digital addiction has caused poaching to decline which is good but the price is also that a generation is emerging with no relationship with the natural world around them. The generation who derived lively hoods from the resource base of the mountains is dying off and all their skills are dying with them.

I bring this up because KJ and I think Dohboi also made this claim that if we suffer a die-off event that desperate humans trying to survive will plunder to extinction all the bush meat remaining in the planet's natural ecosystems.

I really doubt this when I look at the vast urban populations around the planet whose inhabitants never planted a garden or never walked a forest. Even in rural areas like here in Panama you see the emerging generation being relatively clueless about the natural world.

So we are really going to have hordes of digitally addicted clueless humans scouring natural areas trying to hunt bush meat?

I doubt it.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 15:15:21

I have not been a believer in the decline and fall of modern society for some time, Ibon. The other benefit of digital technology is a general increase in productivity and quality of life, as measured by the conventional standards (access to entertainment, enhanced communications, efficient shopping, more food calories, higher standards of education, etc.). For all the detractors of digital technology, it is niether temporary nor transient. The human race has hybridized with digital devices, it is irrevokably changed. From now on, the presence of humans and the network and our digital interfaces is persistent and permanent.

If the scarcity of cheap energy means that fewer of us can eat in the future, and the population of humans falls to a lower number, that does not mean that we will return to a pre-digital level of society. The changes to human culture are far-reaching, entirely transformative, and not subject to reversal, ever again. The last surviving humans on the planet will be communicating over the network, and benefitting from the enhanced productivity and the quality of life improvements.

Lately, Ibon, you have described adding network connectivity to Mt. Totumas and hiring workers with cell phones. I remember when taking a vacation meant getting away from the network, to me. No longer, I have satellite-based network messaging, E-mail in the wilderness. I have been transformed from a primitive human to a digital/human hybrid. It is an enhanced existence, not any form of dehumanization. Modern hybrid networked culture is superior in virtually every way from what existed before.

The future is entirely digital, there is no other. Any society that attempts to reject the network will fail and be replaced by a more efficient and productive one that supports more humans with fewer resources. In the end, the network will save Mt. Totumas, the same way you described the decline of poaching in the nearby National Park.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 15:46:54

I really respectfully, have to sound a bit bemused or perhaps amused by the line of reasoning of Kaiser. I am sure you have all heard of the digital divide. Well, it is way to measure the level of "modernity" of a particular region or country. Going forward how can those on the side of divide not networked be availed by this virtual network? Then to say that this will allow for more humans with less resources truly befuddles me. No amount of networking or pooling of mental acuity will magically make more resources appear or stabilize ecosystems over burdened and overexploited. It is perhaps a principle difference in the way some analyze our prospects as a species, that some continue to put faith in technology and innovation and some of us not so much. It is taken to almost ridiculous levels when someone like Julian Simon can come out and say that Human Ingenuity is the greatest and most important Resource. We have reached this juncture as a species partly because of this line of thinking tinged with hubris. Yes, I also think that at least some of the digitally connected humans may have a rough time at some future time dealing with the Natural world around them.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 16:00:23

KaiserJeep wrote:I have not been a believer in the decline and fall of modern society for some time, Ibon. The other benefit of digital technology is a general increase in productivity and quality of life, as measured by the conventional standards (access to entertainment, enhanced communications, efficient shopping, more food calories, higher standards of education, etc.). For all the detractors of digital technology, it is niether temporary nor transient. The human race has hybridized with digital devices, it is irrevokably changed. From now on, the presence of humans and the network and our digital interfaces is persistent and permanent.

If the scarcity of cheap energy means that fewer of us can eat in the future, and the population of humans falls to a lower number, that does not mean that we will return to a pre-digital level of society. The changes to human culture are far-reaching, entirely transformative, and not subject to reversal, ever again. The last surviving humans on the planet will be communicating over the network, and benefitting from the enhanced productivity and the quality of life improvements.

Lately, Ibon, you have described adding network connectivity to Mt. Totumas and hiring workers with cell phones. I remember when taking a vacation meant getting away from the network, to me. No longer, I have satellite-based network messaging, E-mail in the wilderness. I have been transformed from a primitive human to a digital/human hybrid. It is an enhanced existence, not any form of dehumanization. Modern hybrid networked culture is superior in virtually every way from what existed before.

The future is entirely digital, there is no other. Any society that attempts to reject the network will fail and be replaced by a more efficient and productive one that supports more humans with fewer resources. In the end, the network will save Mt. Totumas, the same way you described the decline of poaching in the nearby National Park.


I pretty much fully agree with your post with almost no exceptions. We have a tree house among our accommodations and I advertise this as a WiFi and internet Free Zone.

There have been many times during the high season when our lounge is full of tourists all with their heads in their digital devices and I think about the effort they all made crossing land and ocean and the 4x4 road getting up here explicitly to enjoy the remote wilderness and disconnect and then they end up unable to un tether themselves. When I see that I tend to agree with you that we have become hybridized to digital technology.

Realizing this is what also made me withdraw from using digital media... The fact that I am back posting on po,com is really a testament of the integrity still to be found on this site that overrules my real concern about the digital addiction that has fully entrenched itself in our collective society.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 16:28:06

Onlooker, the digital divide is a myth. The local library removed aisles of bookshelves and replaced them with computer stations, now perpetually occupied by smelly derelicts. The homeless have internet and are using it to better access soup kitchens, free medical clinics, and shelter. Most of them have free Obama phones. Likewise the Third World has cell service, via solar powered cell towers.

The benefits of the digital age have overwhelmed any lingering resistence felt by you or others. The gains the network brings outweigh the liabilities, by a considerable margin. There's simply no return to a pre-digital age, mankind has undergone a fundamental transformation, we are culturally a new hybrid species.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 16:55:26

One more thought. Today's younger generation is literate years before prior ones. My grandkids have Mom's old I-pad in a padded cover, their parents have loaded it with a variety of fascinating apps that teach verbal and math skills. I have no doubt their digital literacy will exceed my own before they reach puberty.

Ours is the last generation of humans to even have memories of the pre-networked world. The network circles the globe and will eventually end the control of governments, the shackles of religious bigotry, and even eventually, the prejudices we all cling to. If any of that seems unlikely to you, consider the already existing differences in the present day world from that of 25 years ago.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 20 Apr 2018, 19:08:14

Something like 50% of USA urban kids are functionally illiterate. They use cell phones by manipulating glyphs. A 1860’s grade school grad would kick their buts.

IMHO the whole argument is ridiculous. We are talking like the world is one homogeneous soup of humanity. NONE of us know the future. When, how, and where we fall and how far we fall and at what rate are all unknowns. We, including me, like to think the USA will be a relative safe haven. Maybe, maybe not. With our skill at picking potential leaders, either party, makes our prospects seem dismal.

Maybe Africa will unite under a singular strong central government and right their ship. I doubt but who knows. Maybe the USA will be wracked by a French style revolution, including a reign of terror, or by successive civil wars. None of this is likely, all is possible.

Ibon I can see gangs from the cities wandering the hills with AK and AR weapons blazing at everything including one another. There is enough of that in Africa today. I have no response to KJ except WOW!

I think it’s interesting to consider these scenarious, each has some merit, but there are more that we haven’t thought of.

And consider this; each individual may well be right at a certain time and place but each is likely to be more wrong than right overall.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 23 Apr 2018, 22:56:32

KaiserJeep wrote:One more thought. Today's younger generation is literate years before prior ones. My grandkids have Mom's old I-pad in a padded cover, their parents have loaded it with a variety of fascinating apps that teach verbal and math skills. I have no doubt their digital literacy will exceed my own before they reach puberty.

Ours is the last generation of humans to even have memories of the pre-networked world. The network circles the globe and will eventually end the control of governments, the shackles of religious bigotry, and even eventually, the prejudices we all cling to. If any of that seems unlikely to you, consider the already existing differences in the present day world from that of 25 years ago.


All the young folks I see are staring at their IPhones/Androits, while they walk. The elections are being swayed by Facebook. I think you got it backwards.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 07:02:04

jedrider wrote:
All the young folks I see are staring at their IPhones/Androits, while they walk. The elections are being swayed by Facebook. I think you got it backwards.

Elections have always been tampered with. It used to be that lies were told in stump speeches then in Newspapers and billboards then it moved on to television. The internet has changed the delivery vehicle of the political lies but not the quality or quantity of them or made them more believable or effective.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 07:06:36

Newfie wrote:
Ibon I can see gangs from the cities wandering the hills with AK and AR weapons blazing at everything including one another. There is enough of that in Africa today. I have no response to KJ except WOW!

.

The city gangs won't last long against the residents of the hills which are armed and
practiced in using their rifles.
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