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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 20:57:36

vtsnowedin wrote:Hell most of these people don't live within walking distance of a gas pump and certainly don't own a car to drive to the nearest one.
That these people live, marry have children, and then grand children under such conditions is a testament to the human will to live and survive.
They will exist long after the basement dwelling millennials have all been swept away without surviving issue.


Most of them want what the middle class has because their life expectancy rates have been shorter.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 22:21:53

ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Hell most of these people don't live within walking distance of a gas pump and certainly don't own a car to drive to the nearest one.
That these people live, marry have children, and then grand children under such conditions is a testament to the human will to live and survive.
They will exist long after the basement dwelling millennials have all been swept away without surviving issue.


Most of them want what the middle class has because their life expectancy rates have been shorter.
Those third world poor people certainly want to move up the economic ladder that is just human nature. But most of them have a snowballs chance in hell of ever moving up to western levels of income and consumption. This will be be made worse when oil supplies eventually start to decline.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 23:37:27

A society convulsed by disorder and chaos, as Voegelin pointed out, elevates and even celebrates the morally degenerate, those who are cunning, manipulative, deceitful and violent. In an open society these attributes are despised and criminalized. Those who exhibit them are condemned as stupid—“a man [or woman] who behaves in this way,” Voegelin notes, “will be socially boycotted.” But the social, cultural and moral norms in a diseased society are inverted. The attributes that sustain an open society—a concern for the common good, honesty, trust and self-sacrifice—are detrimental to existence in a diseased society. Today, those who exhibit these attributes are targeted and silenced.

-Chris Hedges
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Sys1 » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 02:41:52

Mass dieoff -as said- needs a mass event to occur. Three plausible hypothesis IMHO :
1) Global nuclear war (USA vs NKorea expanding in China+Russia VS USA+Europe)
2) Abrupt climate change (exponential methane levels in atmosphere, +10°C in several months/years)
3) Collapse of electric grid (because of Carrington event/EMP attack)

They key element to prevent mass die-off is to protect electric grid. Everything we need (water, heat, food, light, air conditionner, communication, transport) comes from electricity in cities.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 06:30:57

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:A society convulsed by disorder and chaos, as Voegelin pointed out, elevates and even celebrates the morally degenerate, those who are cunning, manipulative, deceitful and violent. In an open society these attributes are despised and criminalized. Those who exhibit them are condemned as stupid—“a man [or woman] who behaves in this way,” Voegelin notes, “will be socially boycotted.” But the social, cultural and moral norms in a diseased society are inverted. The attributes that sustain an open society—a concern for the common good, honesty, trust and self-sacrifice—are detrimental to existence in a diseased society. Today, those who exhibit these attributes are targeted and silenced.

-Chris Hedges


Sounds like the last USA Presidential election and since.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 06:36:35

vtsnowedin wrote:
Those third world poor people certainly want to move up the economic ladder that is just human nature. But most of them have a snowballs chance in hell of ever moving up to western levels of income and consumption. This will be be made worse when oil supplies eventually start to decline.


That's right. Also, the catch is that Western levels of income and consumption are dependent on increasing the same for most of the world. That's because much of the wealth of the global middle class and the rich consists of numbers in hard drives whose values can only be maintained given increasing economic activity.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 08:43:59

ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Those third world poor people certainly want to move up the economic ladder that is just human nature. But most of them have a snowballs chance in hell of ever moving up to western levels of income and consumption. This will be be made worse when oil supplies eventually start to decline.


That's right. Also, the catch is that Western levels of income and consumption are dependent on increasing the same for most of the world. That's because much of the wealth of the global middle class and the rich consists of numbers in hard drives whose values can only be maintained given increasing economic activity.

Issue of figures in hard drives being fictitious wealth is a non starter with me.
Retirement accounts resting in bonds and stock shares have the value you can collect from them and ultimately come down to the assets of the companies stocks the shares represent and the bonds value lies in the issuing agencies ability to raise taxes to pay off the bonds when due.
Beyond that the middle class person holds wealth in the equity they may have accumulated in their home, vehicles, and other personal possessions and in the continuing marketability of their education and work skills. Even poor people in the developed counties have a form of wealth in the government benefits they are entitled to some earned and some unearned but a dollar from one spends as well as a dollar from another. A social security or welfare check that pays $1000 a month is the equivalent of having $240,000 in the bank at five percent interest and 100 percent estate tax when you die.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 10:25:29

Those fictional dollar amounts in the stock market have allowed me to be debt free for the last three years. So they do accomplish something.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 16:38:21

In stocks you make your money, mostly, when you sell.

Just hope its there when you need it.

At the end of each great empire there was a period when great wealth was lost due to the devaluation of stocks.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 16:42:08

Buying and selling, the churn if you will, is part of the fun or the misery. A stock market that does not move is not a great deal of fun. But I got your point Newfie. One must always hedge one's bets to the extent possible. But dividends still get paid regardless of stock valuation as long as the company makes money.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 16:58:47

Which brings me to another thought. If the stock market crashes, social security is not paid, and the dollar goes to zero value, then we all die or a lot of us die. I've been around the prepper and survivalist game now for ten years. I've grown my own garden in suburbia as a learning experience. When I move from suburbia to a more rural area, I want to have a bigger garden and experiment with off-grid solar. But in all my time of reading and meeting people, I've never met anyone who was truly self-sufficient in ALL things on their own.

We rely on others to provide that which we can not do on our own. We trade either our labor, goods, or that electronic money for the things we need. Such is the way of life.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 17:08:30

Yup, some kind of community will be necessary, probably more than ever. That's why its good to learn not only gardening, but how to work well with others, which includes being tolerant of differences...

We probably all have skills to gain in that direction! :lol: :lol:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 17:12:00

I can tolerate vegans as long as they stay on their side of the commune.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 18:31:30

Otherwise they might start looking too...appetizing??!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 18:39:39

The die off will come post oil shortages around 2020ish.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 19:22:58

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:The die off will come post oil shortages around 2020ish.


Well that is cool because that means I will draw some social security checks before I have to eat people. Sweet.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 06 Sep 2017, 21:16:47

vtsnowedin wrote: Issue of figures in hard drives being fictitious wealth is a non starter with me.
Retirement accounts resting in bonds and stock shares have the value you can collect from them and ultimately come down to the assets of the companies stocks the shares represent and the bonds value lies in the issuing agencies ability to raise taxes to pay off the bonds when due.
Beyond that the middle class person holds wealth in the equity they may have accumulated in their home, vehicles, and other personal possessions and in the continuing marketability of their education and work skills. Even poor people in the developed counties have a form of wealth in the government benefits they are entitled to some earned and some unearned but a dollar from one spends as well as a dollar from another. A social security or welfare check that pays $1000 a month is the equivalent of having $240,000 in the bank at five percent interest and 100 percent estate tax when you die.


I didn't argue that they are fictitious. Rather, they're literally virtual. Money in any form is a promissory note guaranteed by governments and used to obtain various goods and services. If there is a scarcity of the latter, then that money loses value. If governments fall apart, then that money becomes worthless.

Homes, vehicles, and other physical assets lose value, too, for various reasons. Vehicles and homes decay in time, and their worth drops when scarcity takes place. Luxurious things become less valuable when there's a lack of fuel, food, and medicine.

Recall what happened in various countries during times of conflict. People traded their expensive watch or a sack of money to get a sack of rice while the government fells apart and many businesses closed. The difference is that each time, there was recovery, and with an abundance of resources and the return to law and order it became business as usual: they once more built fancy houses and drove around in sports cars.

Now, imagine a situation that involves more than just conflict (i.e., environmental damage, global warming, peak oil and limits to growth, the spread of disease), cuts across several decades, and is global.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 11:36:18

ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: Issue of figures in hard drives being fictitious wealth is a non starter with me.
.......


I didn't argue that they are fictitious. Rather, they're literally virtual. Money in any form is a promissory note guaranteed by governments and used to obtain various goods and services. If there is a scarcity of the latter, then that money loses value. If governments fall apart, then that money becomes worthless.

Homes, vehicles, and other physical assets lose value, too, for various reasons. Vehicles and homes decay in time, and their worth drops when scarcity takes place. Luxurious things become less valuable when there's a lack of fuel, food, and medicine.

Recall what happened in various countries during times of conflict. People traded their expensive watch or a sack of money to get a sack of rice while the government fells apart and many businesses closed. The difference is that each time, there was recovery, and with an abundance of resources and the return to law and order it became business as usual: they once more built fancy houses and drove around in sports cars.

Now, imagine a situation that involves more than just conflict (i.e., environmental damage, global warming, peak oil and limits to growth, the spread of disease), cuts across several decades, and is global.

Well in that event farmland that is still productive becomes the main source of wealth. I have a bit of that.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 11:46:04

Faith is a large part of any monetary system. Even faith in gold or the value of land. Unless I am growing something on 40 acres of land besides weeds, what value does it really have?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Sep 2017, 11:52:32

Cog wrote:Faith is a large part of any monetary system. Even faith in gold or the value of land. Unless I am growing something on 40 acres of land besides weeds, what value does it really have?

Most of my land is woodland. That I don't have a cash crop in the tillable fields does not mean I could not grow food on that land in the future so the value lies in the potential not the current production.
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