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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 09:25:43

Every year I depress myself by entering population statistics into a database I hold. [I use data from the Population Reference Bureau http://www.prb.org/ ]

With the threat of Peak Oil or Collapse due to Climate Change, I am hoping for a significant slow down in population growth leading to a gradual reduction (= die back). But too many countries are still increasing (like the USA by over 1 300 000 people year).

Even countries that we think are having a disastrous time seem to defy the gravity of the situation. For example Yemen is growing by 2.5% a year, and the deaths due to the cholera epidemic only represent one or two day's natural population growth.

I have no crystal ball for when a mass dieoff might happen, but with each passing year it seems like it will be more disastrous when it arrives.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 09:29:46

Thanks for sharing that
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby GHung » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 09:49:03

LTG showed us that births would begin to increase about now, while the population will begin falling @2045-2050 as death rates overtake birth rates.

Haven't seen much to dissuade me regarding the general accuracy of this model, 45 years after its creation.

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 11:23:04

Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 19:33:35

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.


You appear to be copying and pasting the same response into different threads. Are you a bot?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 20:18:08

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.


We seem to be able to pull a continuous stream of rabbits out of a single magician's hat. Are we out of rabbits, yet?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 20:35:28

Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE

http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 1433a.html

New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn

We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s - ASPO
http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg

Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are already declining as group – CSM-HOOK 2009
https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/E ... oil-fields

Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileaks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -wikileaks

International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-g ... 1493244000

UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/ ... s-5531344/

Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -boom.html


Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after $2 Trillion in Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 2-trillion

Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment
http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je ... 319b68d296

Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world's growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shal ... warns.html



HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb


UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... -bank.html

Nasdaq: Forecasts worldwide Oil Shortages and Sharp Price Rise by 2020
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/iea-forec ... 0-cm757712

Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Th ... ustry.html


MarketWatch :Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in ... 2017-07-03

German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments/democracies
https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/P ... y%20EN.pdf
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 01 Sep 2017, 20:36:39

jedrider wrote:
We seem to be able to pull a continuous stream of rabbits out of a single magician's hat. Are we out of rabbits, yet?


What matters is not a continuous stream or running out of resources but level of production per capita, the energy cost of maintaining such, and the ability to increase it to meet free-market capitalist demands.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 07:02:28

There is an economic principal, can't recall the term off hand, that links the price of a commodity with its availability. The very rough rule of thumb is that a 10% change in supply will double or half the price. This ration changes on how necessary the commodity is. So it's stronger/bigger for oil than for paper towels.

I would imagine that it's not linear either, so a 20% shortfall will create a bigger rise than 4 times.

It also depends upon other factors. For instance, the USA car fleet is in pretty good shape (excepting Texas) so that if there is a shortage of loans, or of cars, the public can just hold onto their klunkers another year or two. If the shortage extends then the situation worsens.

It's complicated but makes sense.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 07:17:44

Ford and GM stock up sharply. They are expecting to sell a lot of cars and trucks shortly in the Texas area. Good for them, good for me.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 13:01:24

The dieoff began decades ago, when the exploded human population (around 6 billion) exceeded the net-natural carrying capacity of the planet. We are now running on the fumes and scattered detritus of ancient dead algae, pond scum, ferns (and assorted weird trees). With a small smattering of dinosaur carcasses thrown in for taste and protein content. That stuff is now mostly hot air
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 02 Sep 2017, 13:06:51

pstarr wrote:The dieoff began decades ago, when the exploded human population (around 6 billion) exceeded the net-natural carrying capacity of the planet. We are now running on the fumes and scattered detritus of ancient dead algae, pond scum, ferns (and assorted weird trees). With a small smattering of dinosaur carcasses thrown in for taste and protein content. That stuff is now mostly hot air


'Overshoot', yes, certainly. Even the rabbits can no longer keep up.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 03 Sep 2017, 00:35:12

Pstarr - Yes, I agree with you that humans are in 'Overshoot', and a bad overshoot tends to lead to a dieoff. But I think you are mixing up your terms as the world population is still rising so we are not in 'dieoff' yet.

I suppose the question is when will the tipping point be reached and the Overshoot tips into Dieoff.


ps. I do hope that when the tipping point is reached that the decline in gradual, more of a "die back", rather than a sever "dieoff" which will not be pleasant to be alive to witness (at least part of it). But with each passing year my hope seems more like wishful thinking as the population growth in areas like Africa and the Middle East are high above sustainable levels. I realise that there can be changes over time, like in my teens the main population concern was centred on South America, but there the growth rates have come down. Do we have another 40 years for the African rates to come down to a more to a sustainable level?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 16:36:29

Newfie wrote:There is an economic principal, can't recall the term off hand, that links the price of a commodity with its availability. The very rough rule of thumb is that a 10% change in supply will double or half the price. This ration changes on how necessary the commodity is. So it's stronger/bigger for oil than for paper towels.

I would imagine that it's not linear either, so a 20% shortfall will create a bigger rise than 4 times.

It sounds like you're talking about price elasticity to me.

The price of gasoline, for example, is highly inelastic. People need to get to work, get to the grocery store, etc., whether gasoline is 2 or 3 or even 4 bucks a gallon (Despite the claims from ETPer's people can't "afford" gasoline at current prices).

So if the demand for oil (which is about half used to refine gasoline, over time) rises or falls, say, 20%, then the price changes a LOT. We saw this in 2005-2008 as global demand rose. We saw it in 2009 when global demand dropped meaningfully due to the global recession. We saw it in 2010 through 2014 as global demand recovered quite a bit. And, we saw it again recently when the world clued into the fact that high US production via oil fracking looked like a meaningful "thing", creating a supply glut -- and the price cratered.

This has been going on from time to time since '73 (when I started paying attention).

If EV's become something like 50% of the global vehicle fleet, that could change things a LOT. Maybe even at 20%. However, in the mean time, with global oil demand growing annually, I look for this concept to stay in place, whether ETPers claim people can't afford oil at price X or not.

...

For many commodities the price is much more elastic. As you said, if it's not too critical that happens. Easy substitution could cause that. Or it not being for critical uses in the short run, so supplies in storage are fine -- as long as the situation adjusts in, say, a few years.

It's still often not linear in the short run due to perceptions, but markets will react over time to real world changes in supply or demand. (See lithium and how we're not in "lithium doom" for one example, as supplies have risen markedly over time due to much higher demand expected in future years.)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 18:18:22

The die off is coming post oil shortages around the 2020 time frame. American's are very angry, divided, and armed to the teeth. Add to formula a mother of all energy "Shocks". And you have mass hysteria and widespread social and political chaos.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 18:44:13

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:The die off is coming post oil shortages around the 2020 time frame. American's are very angry, divided, and armed to the teeth. Add to formula a mother of all energy "Shocks". And you have mass hysteria and widespread social and political chaos.

I don't follow your 2020 time frame. That is just three years away and no major resource deficiency is yet apparent or clearly seen on the horizon.
What do you think the trigger to this die off will be?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 18:55:26

Because three years is far enough out everyone will forget about this prediction so he can't be proven wrong. Three years from now he can make a new prediction and no one will be the wiser.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 20:47:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:It sounds like you're talking about price elasticity to me.

The price of gasoline, for example, is highly inelastic. People need to get to work, get to the grocery store, etc., whether gasoline is 2 or 3 or even 4 bucks a gallon (Despite the claims from ETPer's people can't "afford" gasoline at current prices).

So if the demand for oil (which is about half used to refine gasoline, over time) rises or falls, say, 20%, then the price changes a LOT. We saw this in 2005-2008 as global demand rose. We saw it in 2009 when global demand dropped meaningfully due to the global recession. We saw it in 2010 through 2014 as global demand recovered quite a bit. And, we saw it again recently when the world clued into the fact that high US production via oil fracking looked like a meaningful "thing", creating a supply glut -- and the price cratered.

This has been going on from time to time since '73 (when I started paying attention).

If EV's become something like 50% of the global vehicle fleet, that could change things a LOT. Maybe even at 20%. However, in the mean time, with global oil demand growing annually, I look for this concept to stay in place, whether ETPers claim people can't afford oil at price X or not.

...

For many commodities the price is much more elastic. As you said, if it's not too critical that happens. Easy substitution could cause that. Or it not being for critical uses in the short run, so supplies in storage are fine -- as long as the situation adjusts in, say, a few years.

It's still often not linear in the short run due to perceptions, but markets will react over time to real world changes in supply or demand. (See lithium and how we're not in "lithium doom" for one example, as supplies have risen markedly over time due to much higher demand expected in future years.)


If by "people" we mean the global population, then one may consider the point that most earn less than $10 a day, with many earning around $3.

That means most can barely afford the current price of gas or diesel at the pump as well as many other items, from food to electricity to medicine.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 04 Sep 2017, 21:17:48

ralfy wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:It sounds like you're talking about price elasticity to me.

The price of gasoline, for example, is highly inelastic. People need to get to work, get to the grocery store, etc., whether gasoline is 2 or 3 or even 4 bucks a gallon (Despite the claims from ETPer's people can't "afford" gasoline at current prices).

So if the demand for oil (which is about half used to refine gasoline, over time) rises or falls, say, 20%, then the price changes a LOT. We saw this in 2005-2008 as global demand rose. We saw it in 2009 when global demand dropped meaningfully due to the global recession. We saw it in 2010 through 2014 as global demand recovered quite a bit. And, we saw it again recently when the world clued into the fact that high US production via oil fracking looked like a meaningful "thing", creating a supply glut -- and the price cratered.

This has been going on from time to time since '73 (when I started paying attention).

If EV's become something like 50% of the global vehicle fleet, that could change things a LOT. Maybe even at 20%. However, in the mean time, with global oil demand growing annually, I look for this concept to stay in place, whether ETPers claim people can't afford oil at price X or not.

...

For many commodities the price is much more elastic. As you said, if it's not too critical that happens. Easy substitution could cause that. Or it not being for critical uses in the short run, so supplies in storage are fine -- as long as the situation adjusts in, say, a few years.

It's still often not linear in the short run due to perceptions, but markets will react over time to real world changes in supply or demand. (See lithium and how we're not in "lithium doom" for one example, as supplies have risen markedly over time due to much higher demand expected in future years.)


If by "people" we mean the global population, then one may consider the point that most earn less than $10 a day, with many earning around $3.

That means most can barely afford the current price of gas or diesel at the pump as well as many other items, from food to electricity to medicine.

Hell most of these people don't live within walking distance of a gas pump and certainly don't own a car to drive to the nearest one.
That these people live, marry have children, and then grand children under such conditions is a testament to the human will to live and survive.
They will exist long after the basement dwelling millennials have all been swept away without surviving issue.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Tue 05 Sep 2017, 18:10:25

vtsnowedin wrote:
Cliffhanger1983 wrote:The die off is coming post oil shortages around the 2020 time frame. American's are very angry, divided, and armed to the teeth. Add to formula a mother of all energy "Shocks". And you have mass hysteria and widespread social and political chaos.

I don't follow your 2020 time frame. That is just three years away and no major resource deficiency is yet apparent or clearly seen on the horizon.
What do you think the trigger to this die off will be?


Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-EIA-NATURE

http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... 1433a.html

New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA

http://imgur.com/a/W60yn

We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s - ASPO

http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg

Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are already declining as group – CSM-HOOK 2009

https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/E ... oil-fields

Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileaks

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -wikileaks

International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-g ... 1493244000

UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts

http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/ ... s-5531344/

Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -boom.html


Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after $2 Trillion in Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 2-trillion

Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment

http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je ... 319b68d296

Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world's growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shal ... warns.html



HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020

https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb


UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... -bank.html

Nasdaq: Forecasts worldwide Oil Shortages and Sharp Price Rise by 2020
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/iea-forec ... 0-cm757712

Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Th ... ustry.html


MarketWatch :Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-in ... 2017-07-03

German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all manufactured products, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments/democracies

https://www.permaculture.org.au/files/P ... y%20EN.pdf

Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.
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