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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 21:13:05

Cog wrote:If you could make money betting against the end of the world, I would be all over it. But in the mean time, I'll just enjoy watching the doomers make their predictions.

Never made a peak oil prediction, was never a doomer not, in my 11 years here.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 21:57:39

pstarr wrote:Still don't get it do you vt? We are other species. We all share the earth and we all die as we use it up. Yes, it will renew and there will be new oil someday, about a 50 million years from now. So perhaps wombats will be the next sentient species. But I can assure you, it won't be any descendants of Cog.

No Pstarr! We are the human species and all the other species are the "other species".
We could and probably will continue to dominate the planet in spite of losing vast chunks of the bio diversity on the land and in the oceans. Granted it is not the smartest thing we have ever done but without a sudden and drastic reduction in the human population there is no way to stop the process.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 23:11:28

There will be a simultaneous and drastic reduction of humanity as the oil infrastructure crashes under broken economies, overwhelming debt and deflation.

Most every human today is on the same petroleum teat. We all share the same ecosystem. No more diversity. No more local agriculture, culture, production, resources. It's all wasted.

Not animals. There are still significant populations of most endangered species. They are holed up in remote places, in parks, steep mountain slopes and valleys. They don't need oil. They have their own ecosystems. And when we blow through our wealth and die, those species will once again rule planet earth. Speciation will happen quickly to fill empty niches. Rats the size of mammoths. Moths bigger than Condors. Carnivore parakeets that feed on human waste.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 07:44:32

pstarr wrote:
Most every human today is on the same petroleum teat. We all share the same ecosystem. No more diversity. No more local agriculture, culture, production, resources. It's all wasted.

.

Quite the opposite. We Americans which are just four percent of the human population are holding on to a much bigger set of oil goddess boobs then the rest of the world.
On a per capita basis the US consumes 61.2 bpd/person The UK and most of Europe 26 bpd/p China just 7.0 bpd/p (growing rapidly) and India just 2.64 bpd/p (also growing steadily).
A tightening of world oil supplies will effect the US sooner and a lot more seriously then those tens of millions of people that already know how to live and even prosper using a lot less oil.
Now before you say that the USA will use it's military and wealth to out bid the other countries to maintain BAU consider the twenty trillion National debt and how fast we could default on it if real world interest rates rise.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 09:31:50

The USA can not default on its debt. If you want to believe on impossible things, conjure me up a unicorn that farts skittles and 5.56 ammo.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 09:50:20

Cog wrote:The USA can not default on its debt. If you want to believe on impossible things, conjure me up a unicorn that farts skittles and 5.56 ammo.

You would like to think that but just like any other country we can spend beyond our means and the bills do come due. And there is more then one way to renege on a countries debts. One of the most popular over the years has been hyper inflation.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 11:08:04

yes, many countries have used some form of the hyperinflation trick to pay yesterdays bill with today's much less useful currency. It works especially well in an environment where interest rates have been very low because the interest is supposed to replace inflation losses and show a modest profit to the lender.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 13:28:04

vtsnowedin wrote:
Cog wrote:The USA can not default on its debt. If you want to believe on impossible things, conjure me up a unicorn that farts skittles and 5.56 ammo.

You would like to think that but just like any other country we can spend beyond our means and the bills do come due. And there is more then one way to renege on a countries debts. One of the most popular over the years has been hyper inflation.


Well, there are also asset sales, which currently in real estate is probably a factor in keeping the dollar afloat. I presume that some seesaw of asset sales and hyperinflation lie in our immediate future.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 14:40:13

jedrider wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Cog wrote:The USA can not default on its debt. If you want to believe on impossible things, conjure me up a unicorn that farts skittles and 5.56 ammo.

You would like to think that but just like any other country we can spend beyond our means and the bills do come due. And there is more then one way to renege on a countries debts. One of the most popular over the years has been hyper inflation.


Well, there are also asset sales, which currently in real estate is probably a factor in keeping the dollar afloat. I presume that some seesaw of asset sales and hyperinflation lie in our immediate future.

What do you propose they sell? The Navy, Air force, or the interstate system?
Imagine the Chinese owning all of the interstate highways and billing you monthly through easy pass transponders. 8O
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 14:56:12

It appears the dieoff has started. :?
"As many as 20,000 fish, lobsters, starfish, scallops, crabs and other animals have turned up dead at Savory Park, Canadian authorities said. And they have no idea why."

Up to 20,000 dead fish, other animals wash up on Nova Scotia coast
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 15:36:14

pstarr wrote:It appears the dieoff has started. :?
"As many as 20,000 fish, lobsters, starfish, scallops, crabs and other animals have turned up dead at Savory Park, Canadian authorities said. And they have no idea why."

Up to 20,000 dead fish, other animals wash up on Nova Scotia coast


Ah, the NATURE deficit even dwarfs the financial deficit.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 15:37:54

Haha, that is old news Pstarr, the sixth mass extinction event has been going on for quite some time. Birds falling out of the sky, abundance of fish washing up ashore dead etc. that seems to have been happening for awhile now for those of us who pay heed to such things. Such a macabre thing to say but sadly the truth.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 15:58:37

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 20:24:55

A bit off topic but relevant. This fellow dives in Tainter.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -populists

The lesson of Trump and Brexit: a society too complex for its people risks everything | John Harris

At certain points in history, Tainter says, “declining returns make complexity a less attractive problem-solving strategy”. Under such conditions, the option to “sever the ties that link localised groups to a regional entity” could gain traction. If you understand “regional” in a global rather than national sense, that’s surely a pretty good summary of Brexit, and the resentments now festering all across Europe.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 20:41:25

The left has ceded the middle ground particularly with regards reticence to apply intelligence microscopy to migration, particularly muslim migration. The center right is pulled hard right by the reaction to the failure of internationalist, globalist, centrist, leftists to address the concerns of the general public in the respective first world nations. As labour heads towards the end of a zero sum game- the value of labour literally falling to nothing, simultaneously raw resource peaks in an array of key commodities, complete failure to even begin to address the requirement to end the economic growth paradigm... it seems, still the leaders are completely at a loss, as is most everyone- an atmosphere ripe for extremism.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 00:01:48

Newfie wrote:A bit off topic but relevant. This fellow dives in Tainter.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -populists

The lesson of Trump and Brexit: a society too complex for its people risks everything | John Harris

At certain points in history, Tainter says, “declining returns make complexity a less attractive problem-solving strategy”. Under such conditions, the option to “sever the ties that link localised groups to a regional entity” could gain traction. If you understand “regional” in a global rather than national sense, that’s surely a pretty good summary of Brexit, and the resentments now festering all across Europe.

I am surprised a MSM would print Tainter. His message has got to be bad for Christmas gift sales.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 20:46:03

The Guardian is at least a notch or two above much of the rest of msm.

Here's another post of theirs that seems relevant here:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... study-says

Growing mega-cities will displace vast tracts of farmland by 2030
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 22:29:54

dohboi wrote:The Guardian is at least a notch or two above much of the rest of msm.

Here's another post of theirs that seems relevant here:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... study-says

Growing mega-cities will displace vast tracts of farmland by 2030

I don't have to read far into this one to call foul.
Consider this quote from the intro of the article.
By 2030, it’s estimated that urban areas will triple in size,

Now the worlds population is growing and the majority of it lives in urban areas but it is not growing at rates that would achieve that projection. To triple by 2030 would require a growth rate in excess of fourteen percent a year while the actual rate is just over two percent.
Not that two percent a year is not a real problem but perhaps that can be dealt with by building vertically or birth control to avoid the problem completely.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 23:07:42

And I'll call foul on your foul call! :-D

As you folks around here constantly remind us, populations aren't just increasing, but more and more demanding and acquiring the levels of consumption of high-consumer "first world" countries.

That means that lots of people will be looking to move out of their crowded flavelas, shanty towns and slums and move out to more spacious suburban areas.

Just look at the US. Yes, it's pop grew in the second half of the 20th century, but the thing that really gobbled up a lot of land was the expansion of the suburbs...and of course, it's not just the houses, but the roads to serve them, the malls, the golf courses...

So population growth will be a big problem, but consumption growth is the big multiplier.

Thanks for peeking at my article, though! :)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 23:32:21

dohboi wrote:And I'll call foul on your foul call! :-D

As you folks around here constantly remind us, populations aren't just increasing, but more and more demanding and acquiring the levels of consumption of high-consumer "first world" countries.

That means that lots of people will be looking to move out of their crowded flavelas, shanty towns and slums and move out to more spacious suburban areas.

Just look at the US. Yes, it's pop grew in the second half of the 20th century, but the thing that really gobbled up a lot of land was the expansion of the suburbs...and of course, it's not just the houses, but the roads to serve them, the malls, the golf courses...

So population growth will be a big problem, but consumption growth is the big multiplier.

Thanks for peeking at my article, though! :)

You miss my point, but perhaps deliberately?
To grossly misstate the facts is nothing less then a lie and once a witness has been caught in a lie then everything else they might say has to be considered a lie unless confirmed by other more reliable sources.
That your source would state such an obvious falsehood in an article means that you have to throw the rest of it and anything else they say past or future into the circular bin.
Urban areas tend to grow vertically, a lot of people living on top of a few acres alah Trump tower,
To think that a cities foot print in acres would grow equal to or faster then the population per capita is just plain stupid.
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