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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 12:37:40

Ethical...nice idea, I support it. I'm not holding my breath.

Here's a prediction, I'm betting we will see some mass genocide in the next 10 years.

Here's the problem. We know what we would like to happen. We Also have a good idea of humanities history, of our natural tendencies.

While we should argue for good and moral solutions it's not wise to ignore the likelihood that those arguments will fail.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 12:46:16

Newfie wrote:The die off begins when the rate of population growth hits an inflection point and then turns negative. Unless it's being done in a controlled manner, and of that I see zero evidence.

It is being done in a very controlled manner. The United States is controlling it and we have no manners lol

The wealthy countries take what they can through diplomacy, bullying, outright theft, economic destabilization and as a last resort . . . finally war. That is where NATO is with Russia right now. Of course that won't work so we will have to return to a more prosaic program and pour money into more factions on Russia's border. It used to be called colonization but now it is peak oil.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 16:51:43

Before we can see any "die off" or what ever you want to call a population reduction we have to first get to zero population growth. Today to do that you would have to increase deaths or reduce births by 75 million people per year ( or a combination of both that nets the same 75 million difference.)
War is not the answer as both WW1 and WW2 killed about 10 million military and civilians each year of the wars and at tremendous costs.
So that leaves us with disease and starvation which are both likely candidates in an over crowed world. Both of those are easy to come by if you have an economic collapse as we can see by looking at Venezuela today.
Of course the arrival of a true peak oil would trigger an economic collapse over the whole western world and even if conditions in some of the more powerful countries might not fall to the level of famine what it would do is remove the ability to send food aid to any third world country.
So if your in a third world over populated country, Say Nigeria or Egypt your biggest fear should be a financial collapse in the USA or Europe.
There is no need to pick winners and losers or to set a time frame on this as it will all come of it's own accord in due time.
But I don't think it will be this year or even in the next five. Actual oil delivered to the market needs to peak and then decline for a few years before things might collapse.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 20:07:48

vtsnowedin wrote:Before we can see any "die off" or what ever you want to call a population reduction we have to first get to zero population growth.
Who is WE? And who will measure your metric? When THE dieoff commences statisticians would be needed to do the difficult job of counting bodies? Will that be that YOU, vt?

vtsnowedin wrote:Today to do that you would have to increase deaths or reduce births by 75 million people per year ( or a combination of both that nets the same 75 million difference.)
War is not the answer as both WW1 and WW2 killed about 10 million military and civilians each year of the wars and at tremendous costs.
So that leaves us with disease and starvation which are both likely candidates in an over crowed world. Both of those are easy to come by if you have an economic collapse as we can see by looking at Venezuela today.
Of course the arrival of a true peak oil would trigger an economic collapse over the whole western world and even if conditions in some of the more powerful countries might not fall to the level of famine what it would do is remove the ability to send food aid to any third world country.
So if your in a third world over populated country, Say Nigeria or Egypt your biggest fear should be a financial collapse in the USA or Europe.
There is no need to pick winners and losers or to set a time frame on this as it will all come of it's own accord in due time.
But I don't think it will be this year or even in the next five. Actual oil delivered to the market needs to peak and then decline for a few years before things might collapse.
Actual oil delivered to many markets has already peaked and declined for a few years, and those markets are already in various stages of collapse. Start with Egypt, move to Libya and other "Arab Spring" countries than consider Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Forget about Haiti and Somalia. They are fast receding in the rear mirror. 8O
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 21:00:49

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Before we can see any "die off" or what ever you want to call a population reduction we have to first get to zero population growth.
Who is WE? And who will measure your metric? When THE dieoff commences statisticians would be needed to do the difficult job of counting bodies? Will that be that YOU, vt?

We as in all of humanity. Counting the bodies will be a useless task and I expect to be more profitably engaged if still alive.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 21:18:28

vt, you look forward to zero population growth. I am expecting negative population de-growth (wait. is that a double negatie?)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 21:20:52

pstarr wrote:vt, you look forward to zero population growth. I am expecting negative population de-growth (wait. is that a double negatie?)

Yes it is and how do you propose that humanity get to this "de-growth"?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 21:44:54

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:vt, you look forward to zero population growth. I am expecting negative population de-growth (wait. is that a double negatie?)

Yes it is and how do you propose that humanity get to this "de-growth"?

I don't expect humanity will get anywhere. We, all of us, will merely be where we are in the moment, as usual.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 23:37:33

Ahh, population.

This gets tiresome, but yet again (and again and again) the formula for human impact is "population times consumption"

But of course folks from high consumption societies like ours, where we use some quarter of resources with only a twentieth of the global population, understandably want to always shout "IT'S ALL AND ONLY ABOUT POPULATION SO SHUT UP ABOUT OUR GLUTTONOUS CONSUMPTION ALREADY!"

So just to keep the children quiet, let's take a look a population trends (double click and choose 'view image' to see the whole thing):

Image

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth/

Everything beyond 2015 is pure speculation on this graph, of course (and even the 2010-2014 growth rate looks a bit higher than stats at some other locations, where it shows them already at or below ~1.1% : http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=24&c=xx&l=en). If you just took the data points from the highest level of population growth rate and today's rate and drew a straight line, you reach zero population growth by about 2060 and going down from there. There are many reasons to suppose that the decline will be faster than linear, of course.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 03:14:25

But with all your whining and scolding dohboi, you have done little or nothing to change your own gluttony. But that is okay, at this point you have no choice in the matter. So have fun :)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 03:46:21

Another fact free post from pstarr.

Quelle suprise!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 06:14:54

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 06:27:03

the dieoff in other species is well advanced....and that is , and will affect us

https://www.populationmatters.org/wwf-f ... xtinction/
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 16:18:25

kiwichick wrote:the dieoff in other species is well advanced....and that is , and will affect us

https://www.populationmatters.org/wwf-f ... xtinction/

To me the pollinating Bees are the best example, they become extinct and we lose roughly one third of our food supply
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 16:39:16

Perhaps we should define die off. Unless something existential happens I thing human world population will grow for another five to fifteen years. After that the future is a lot more hazy because peak oil will be biting hard and some nut coukd start world war III and get a lot of us killed quickly as a result.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 18:37:58

An obvious measure of dieoff (as defined by the environmental crowd) is species extinction. (As if we need those damn pests lol). Lots of that going around.

Species extinctions are indicators. Declines among many nondescript animals (like the snail darter or the Sacramento/San Joaquin delta smelt) indicates we are destroying our nest. These same little fishes depend on the same river we depend on. They are indicator species. We are running out of Earth. Clean air, water and abundant resources make the world go around for us. No oil, and the indicators species will rebound back into their beautiful natural world. And we will die.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 19:15:21

If I have to die, I'm taking those indicator species with me.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 19:21:18

Defining die off isn't all that hard. The human population has to stop growing and begin declining. What happens to other species while interesting and perhaps useful as a warning does not matter if the human population continues to grow.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 19:56:45

Still don't get it do you vt? We are other species. We all share the earth and we all die as we use it up. Yes, it will renew and there will be new oil someday, about a 50 million years from now. So perhaps wombats will be the next sentient species. But I can assure you, it won't be any descendants of Cog.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 21:02:44

If you could make money betting against the end of the world, I would be all over it. But in the mean time, I'll just enjoy watching the doomers make their predictions.
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