[peripato]

According to peripato's chart, and his reasoning, there were, in reality, no recessions between about 1963 and 1998, because the LFPR was rising. Even though there really were. After all, if the LFPR is going to be our measure of what constitutes a recession/recovery, then there cannot be a recession when it is rising, if, as he claims, there cannot be a recovery when it is falling.



As for the velocity of money, its current low level has everything to do with the Fed's purchase of treasuries the past several years. If it weren't for that, it would be a lot more normal-looking. You'll have to research that yourself.

You see, the doom and gloom crowd is pretty desperate these days to find some way to claim there has been no recovery, so they're forced to cherry pick increasingly obscure stats and mis-interpret other stats in order to maintain their illusion of doom. But then, I've been pointing out that for at least 3-4 years too.

Sanctimonious git.

[Cog]

copious.abundance is dead on point. Your ad-homs don't refute that.

[copious.abundance]

It's too bad Cog has only recently come around to my p.o.v. If he had done the same in 2009, he'd be $100 richer.

[ennui2]

You see, the doom and gloom crowd is pretty desperate these days to find some way to claim there has been no recovery, so they're forced to cherry pick increasingly obscure stats and mis-interpret other stats in order to maintain their illusion of doom.

I think you've nailed it on this one. The rationalizations and reframing has become so hard to follow, often relying on inverse logic that fails common-sense litmus-tests. Really, peak-oil seemed so simple when I first discovered it 10 years ago. Hubbert's curve, and when we fall off the peak, then mutant zombie bikers. Simple, terrifying, easy to understand. Now we're all supposed to still be pissing our pants in fear when oil is hitting new lows and stores are still chock full of cheap food? It doesn't compute.

Peak oil has lost its branding.

[Cog]

It's too bad Cog has only recently come around to my p.o.v. If he had done the same in 2009, he'd be $100 richer.

That is a fact. But fortunately my education only cost me $100, but by getting off the doomer-train, I've made that back many times over.

[ROCKMAN]

Still amazing to see how many folks think current LOWER oil prices and higher production rates indicate that there not very bad times coming for the world with respect to energy. Sorta like the passengers on the Titanic that thought it was cool to put ice in their drinks after it fell from berg on to the deck after they hit it. And the band played on. LOL

[Cog]

With the money I have saved on fuel bills, I have bought another AR so it is sort of works its way out in the end.

[AirlinePilot]

Still amazing to see how many folks think current LOWER oil prices and higher production rates indicate that there not very bad times coming for the world with respect to energy. Sorta like the passengers on the Titanic that thought it was cool to put ice in their drinks after it fell from berg on to the deck after they hit it. And the band played on. LOL

Its kind of like a chess game. Its very hard for most..except for the experienced player...to see more than a move or two down the road. Prices where they are now look like we are "out of the woods", possibly for quite some time, but the reality is this may be the worst shock the oil and energy industry may sustain in modern times. I see a lot of strange looks, comments, and basic incredulity from analysts at the low price point we are enjoying presently. Everyone thinks its due to a glut of production, which is partly true. That is an easy notion to buy off on and one the punditry uses because right now it is irrefutable save for anyone with half of a brain that has been following this story for more than a decade. The "why" part is where most folks fall off the bus.

The reason for the "shock" is the part that is NOT intuitive to most since it makes no sense. I think most of us understand it and the mechanisms at play. While we are inside this protective and warm fuzzy bubble of low prices and STILL abundant production the corny's and the rest of the "low Info" crowd will use the present paradigm to make those of us who get it look like a bunch of looney tunes Its always been like that with these sorts of things. I really could care less anymore about arguing the point. It truly is a dynamic and important time for the energy world and very big and interesting things are coming for all of us.

[AirlinePilot]

Peak oil has lost its branding.

Yup, I actually agree with that. It was wiped out by the largest stick save in modern history. The creation of the largest deficits and debt in the entire history of the United States and several very large Western monetary systems(if not ALL of them!).

There is an end game to that and the Peak of global oil production is tightly correlated with it. My personal feeling is that it wont be hard to understand once we get there. Right now its a very tough nut to crack for the average casual observer, but once we move into the time where debt can no longer be sustained it will become PAINFULLY obvious.

[sparky]

.
If one observe the crude oil price trend , it become obvious it is plagued by a boom and bust sequence
it take about 6 years to go from a high to a low ,
in system analysis it it the sign of an unstable feedback loop , in this case the supply/demand response.
the high get higher and the lows lower at each cycle .
so , when will prices break the current record?
for my two cents , 2021 ....an humungous tsunami of money bidding for drips

[peripato]

copious.abundance is dead on point. Your ad-homs don't refute that.

Bite me

[ennui2]

copious.abundance is dead on point. Your ad-homs don't refute that.

Bite me

copious.abundance should spike the football and say he's off to Disney World if ad homs like these are the best that peakers can muster.

[JimBof]

Peak oil has lost its branding.

Yup, I actually agree with that. It was wiped out by the largest stick save in modern history. The creation of the largest deficits and debt in the entire history of the United States and several very large Western monetary systems(if not ALL of them!).

There is an end game to that and the Peak of global oil production is tightly correlated with it. My personal feeling is that it wont be hard to understand once we get there. Right now its a very tough nut to crack for the average casual observer, but once we move into the time where debt can no longer be sustained it will become PAINFULLY obvious.

Greece obviously has no chance to pay its debts. The UK could do it in a couple of years if they tried. Australia? our debt is relatively low but our politicians could not organise a F***up in a brothel. The USA pay its debts? EVER?