Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 16:06:52

OK, time once again to be my pissy self. Before we can "fall off" an undulating plateau we have to be on an UP...which we aren't. Yes, global oil production has become somewhat static to a slight decline lately. But that's been artificial and not natural.

But even that is insignificant compared to the DECADES LONG trend of INCREASING GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION. Am I the only one that pulls up production charts. There a variety out there and none show an UP:

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... World1.jpg

Next problem I have: so when we do reach a prolonged UP of global oil production define what a "fall off" !looks like. That terms implies a relatively rapid decline. But quantity it: 10%/yr, 20%/yr, 30%/yr, more? Compare to the US during pre-shale days:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_dep ... _Curve.png

On an UP from 1968 to 1986. Then declined from 9 mm bopd to 5 mm bopd from 1986 to 2006: a 45% decline over 20 years. IOW significantly less the 10% per year. Does that qualify as "falling off"? I let everyone qualify it themselves. And do we expect global oil production to decline faster then what the US experienced? Slower? And why regardless of what you predict?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10626
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 16:11:45

I say the undulations will continue for 2-5 decades.

This will not be a comfortable period for anybody employed, unemployed, or retired - because as energy gets more expensive, so does everything else produced or transported with FF's. During this period, currency will inflate considerably, impoverishing those who try to exist on fixed incomes - soon to include me. Meanwhile, the 3rd World will starve.

The second half of the Peak Oil curve COULD last for another century of gradual power-down, if nobody panics, and nobody tries to take more than their share. It will last less than half as long as it could, because people are apes, acting as apes act.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLu9FaZTE-Y
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4199
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 16:20:32

So Rockman is your prediction that total world production will keep rising for the foreseeable future?
The decline in the US production in the seventies was counter balanced by increases in other countries which were cheaper then continued efforts in the US. What happens when there are no more cheaper sites to exploit anywhere in the world? Even a five percent per year world decline would leave a lot of demand unmet and cause major changes in how we use oil. Burn it just to heat a building? not very likely.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8028
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 20:20:22

ROCKMAN wrote:OK, time once again to be my pissy self. Before we can "fall off" an undulating plateau we have to be on an UP...which we aren't. Yes, global oil production has become somewhat static to a slight decline lately. But that's been artificial and not natural.

But even that is insignificant compared to the DECADES LONG trend of INCREASING GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION. Am I the only one that pulls up production charts. There a variety out there and none show an UP:

Image


Next problem I have: so when we do reach a prolonged UP of global oil production define what a "fall off" !looks like. That terms implies a relatively rapid decline. But quantity it: 10%/yr, 20%/yr, 30%/yr, more? Compare to the US during pre-shale days:

On an UP from 1968 to 1986. Then declined from 9 mm bopd to 5 mm bopd from 1986 to 2006: a 45% decline over 20 years. IOW significantly less the 10% per year. Does that qualify as "falling off"? I let everyone qualify it themselves. And do we expect global oil production to decline faster then what the US experienced? Slower? And why regardless of what you predict?


ROCKMAN back in the old days this thread was based around the graph Pops made, I am quoting the earliest version of that series I could find in the archives. The basic theory is simple, fracking picked up even as old oil fields were in decline at a steep rate in some cases, like the North Sea, but at a much slower decline rate in the Siberia and Alaska.

Pops wrote:Real oil prices have never been this high for this long, ever.

And they've never been this much above the trend without producing substantial amounts of new oil production.

All we've gotten this time is a stripper well make work project in the US, otherwise production in the rest of the world has been flat for 7 years.

Looks like a plateau to me...

Image

Great charts at crudeoilpeak
http://crudeoilpeak.info/excluding-the- ... an-in-2005
.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14042
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 23:37:38

vt - "So Rockman is your prediction that total world production will keep rising for the foreseeable future?" I didn't predict anything. Just pointed the statistical FACT that global oil production has not reached an undulating plateau phase...yet. So before we predict when we fall off (which I've seen no one offer a metric to quantify) of an UP we might wait until we spend some time on an UP. In the meantime for those who think they are smart enough: when does global oil production reach the UP phase and how long does it hold there?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10626
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 23:53:35

T - Much thanks for that colorful chart...it proves my point. From 2005 to today global oil production has yet to reach the undulating plateau phase: it has consistently reached a new peak production for more then a decade. And while there have been dips in the rate it has not only recovered but increased. In the undulating plateau phase I would expect those peaks to hold around the same volume, wouldn't you?

In fact, even your dips in production since 2010 have shown progressively higher values. High peaks and higher lows over time do not define an undulating plateau IMHO.

Now that we've settled that do you want to predict when we'll reach the UP phase and how long we might hold there? After that we can discuss exactly what "falling off" the plateau looks like.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10626
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 00:17:27

We can also look at oil production per capita.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4654
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 06:23:45

ROCKMAN wrote:T - Much thanks for that colorful chart...it proves my point. From 2005 to today global oil production has yet to reach the undulating plateau phase: it has consistently reached a new peak production for more then a decade. And while there have been dips in the rate it has not only recovered but increased. In the undulating plateau phase I would expect those peaks to hold around the same volume, wouldn't you?

In fact, even your dips in production since 2010 have shown progressively higher values. High peaks and higher lows over time do not define an undulating plateau IMHO.

Now that we've settled that do you want to predict when we'll reach the UP phase and how long we might hold there? After that we can discuss exactly what "falling off" the plateau looks like.

RM ,with due respect the new peaks are because of BS oil viz NGL , shale ,tar sands ,refinery gains (what a bummer ),bio fuels etc . On the black goo the pure crude we have been on a plateau since 2005-2006
dirtyharry
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri 07 Apr 2017, 09:53:43

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 08:56:04

20101111-world-energy-outlook-peak-oil.jpg
20101111-world-energy-outlook-peak-oil.jpg (16.64 KiB) Viewed 1132 times


Yes ample amount of info via charts, statistics etc. do show as dirtyharry says a peak in conventional Oil around 2005-6
Notice also in the chart-graph, I include how oil sources yet to be found and yet to be developed also are showing a downturn.
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7967
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 10:16:40

I remember that chart and how much mockery was heaped upon it back in the day. Now produce an updated chart from 2017.

If there's anything peak oilers should have realized by now is that you can't just look at a chart from 5+ years ago and assume that where we are now is where it projected us to be.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1192
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 10:41:51

Ash, I am not sure why in regards to the dating you voice objection since it is showing something that happened a number of years back in 2005-6. So it is NOT a prediction but an accounting of what has already happened
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7967
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 14:41:52

The Wedge of Hope! So happy :)
Image
'fields yet to be developed' and 'fields yet to be found' is the oil-vaporware oil-company flacks push on congressional interns and other empty vessels. Those resources are invented out of past performance trends extrapolated into the rosy future. Barely tinged with oil. Just flowers. The interns then sell the watered-down BS to so-called experts and pundits in the econosphere. Where it then dribbles down the shirt front of Rachel Maddow and Bill O'Really?
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26304
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 17:11:15

Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.

So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10626
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 21:18:48

ROCKMAN wrote:Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.

So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.

You're not going to get sensible numbers from fast crashers who only want to revel in their predictions of fast crash predictions -- to the extent that they endlessly make stuff up to boost their case.

I agree that oil is oil, and given the scope of shale formations and shale production (just from the US, thus far), it's silly to act like fracked shale oil doesn't count somehow -- but of course it feeds the fast crash meme of avoiding inconvenient facts or data.

I would also agree that since the production of crude generally keeps increasing, claiming we've been on a U.P. since 2005 or whatver doesn't make a lot of sense.

I'm rooting for buying 5 to 7 decades from shale fracking and natural gas until the green sources, batteries, and smart grid are built out well enough to make massive reductions in burning fossil fuels a non-event. In fact, I'm rooting for that happening naturally due to relative costs for them being too high, re the Tony Seba outlook. (But I think it will take longer than he's predicting for things like the EV rollout).

I'd be curious to see a meaninful, well defended, numerical answer to your question, but I won't hold my breath expecting it from the fast crasher crowd.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4034
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 21:32:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm rooting for buying 5 to 7 decades from shale fracking and natural gas


I don't think it will last that long, OS. It seems like it might last more like 5-7 years after which I see price pressures nipping at consumers' heels to the point where EV sales skyrocket.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1192
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 28 Oct 2017, 23:35:47

I see it the same way I have always seen it. Shale is great, while it lasts. On the other hand shale has so far proven to be limited to only certain formations at certain depths where fracking is both technically and economically viable. Natural Gas shale resources seem to be vast and on a scale only dreamed of a few decades ago for Natural Gas resource potential. Shale oil that can be economically recovered appears to be on a vastly more limited scale and extent than the lighter hydrocarbons including the 'wet' natural gas with a large percentage of Ethane/Propane/Butane in its mixture.

There were a lot of potential shale formations suitable for oil extraction that real world development proved to either be very low recovery rates, or just plain improbable in usefulness. Just for example the Monterrey Shale formation in California was downgraded 96% in its potential before the glut and crash of 2015. The shale wells in Poland and the UK are additional examples of places where the potential was believed to exist and test wells were drilled but results were mediocre at best and completely uneconomic even at $100/bbl at worst.

ROCKMAN himself has posted many times on this very website about how shale formations are extremely common but shale formations that can be fracked to produce liquid hydrocarbons at a profit are rare. A handful of formations have produced nearly all of the fracked liquid hydrocarbons produced in the USA to date even though hundreds of formations had test wells poked in the ground and fracked only to deliver no economically viable oil even though prices were in the $80-$115/bbl band for over four years while those test wells were completed.

I freely admit I fell for the red Queen theory that depletion rates in fracked wells would remain steep in the tail period of production and their lifespan as stripper wells would be very short. This as the saying goes, turned out not to be the case. Fracked wells producing like strippers do decline faster than traditional stripper wells, but they still operate for at least a decade in many cases. Of course some of them deplete to nothing quickly and on the other end of the average some will stay strippers for several decades. The simple fact is the fracking for liquid hydrocarbons in shale boom took off in 2009 though there were some earlier wells. By boom I mean every wildcatter and his brother was taking a shot at shale fracking as a get rich quick system in 2009-2014 causing many thousands of wells to be drilled fracked and completed in those five years. The boom caused a glut and forced down the price enough to slash drilling and fracking rates to a very low number in early 2016, but that number recovered substantially by the end of 2016 and has continued to slowly grown throughout 2017 to date.

But that doesn;t change a couple significant facts about liquid hydrocarbons from shale. First, the number of formations that are economic as well as technically viable is a limited number of the world total volume of shale formations. Something like 1%-3% of the world shale beds are potential liquid hydrocarbon sources at $80/bbl. Yes that adds up to a lot of oil, but it is not an unlimited resource or one that is going to flow glut like volumes for 5 to 7 decades into the future. EIA which is hardly a pessimistic organization projected that shale oil production in the USA would peak between 2018-2022 at the drilling rates experienced in 2013. Drilling rates in 2014 greatly exceeded those 2013 rates topping out around 1600 active drilling rigs. This week Baker Hughes says the USA is back up to 909 active rigs closing on on the 1300 that were active at the beginning of 2013. Add in the improvement in technique that all those fracked wells have taught the remaining companies how to implement and the productivity per rig is much better than it was in 2013-2014. That isn't to say the rig count is unimportant, just that the productivity of 909 rigs in October 2017 is more than the same 909 rigs in 2013-2014.

However you want to slice it we are operating 56% of the peak rig number from 2014 today and that is up from about 30% of the 2014 number a year ago. Unless those ETP psychics are right and the price crashes to some very low number very soon and stays there forever the number of working rigs is going to keep rising. If it keeps rising like it has for the last 12 months for another year we will be back to 75% perhaps 80% of the peak working rig rate by this time next year.

In June 2015 we hit 9.61 MM/bbl/d USA crude production and today we are back up to 9.51 MM/bbl/d even though active rigs is still lower than it was in late 2014. I honestly don't know what legacy oil fields that were tapped out and already went through secondary and tertiary recovery might be eligible for fracking as a Quaternary recovery technique. If I understood ROCKMANS's many posts on the topic it is one of the things he has specialized in, reworking tired old fields with new methods to squeeze more petroleum out and sell. Maybe the KSA can use fracking and long laterals to get another 250 G/bbl out of Gahwar, but for now at least they are not doing that and expecting it to happen is pure speculation. Even if KSA does deploy Fracking with all the bells and whistles to squeeze another trillion barrels out of OPEC fields that isn't going to alter the fact that China is now producing close to twice as many new cars for their own population every year as the USA both builds and imports from overseas. That is not going to change any time soon and with each passing year it means China has a greater import demand for crude oil and refined products. China is not quite literally the worlds biggest oil importer and even at a modest growth rate they are doing an excellent job of putting an end to the glut, with India not that far behind them on the import growth curve.

Yes the graph I posted from Pops shows a bumpy situation with LTO from USA Fracking growing on top of all other sources. The whole point of the bumpy plateau is to notice that while world oil supplies grew rapidly in the 1990's and up until about 2002 the growth has been very small in the last decade and a half with the sole exception of USA LTO production. Unless you honestly believe LTO can grow and keep growing for several decades into the future you should find the lack of growth in other oil sources troubling. I certainly do.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14042
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 01:32:17

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm rooting for buying 5 to 7 decades from shale fracking and natural gas


I don't think it will last that long, OS. It seems like it might last more like 5-7 years after which I see price pressures nipping at consumers' heels to the point where EV sales skyrocket.

Well, perhaps I'm wrong on the fracked oil internationally part, re Tanada's post. I was relying on the estimates from my reading sources like "The Domino Effect" by Russell Braziel, which was certain that globally, a whole lot of fracked oil would be economical to drill. Plus I (perhaps incorrectly) assumed that the vast amount of globally economical fracked gas formations implied there would be a LOT of internationally "decent" fracked oil formations.

(I'm no expert and don't claim to be. But I do read and think about stuff and do a little math, and don't just make stuff up out of whole cloth like the fast crash doom crowd tends to).

But even so, natural gas supplies are apparently stupendous, which Tanada's post seemed to agree with. And I didn't say it, but I still think that TPTB will burn coal as a backup, if that proves necessary to keep the global economy going (and oil can be produced from coal, if needed).

I used to think natural gas could be used for cars once oil got too expensive, but with the likely progress and cost curve for EV's, it seems unnecessary, even if we go from a huge oil glut to $150ish a barrel within 20 years, the way progress should occur in EV's and green energy.

As long as there is enough breathing room to let EV's ramp up to become available in big volume at a reasonable price, that should be good enough.

Of course, unlike the fast crash doomers, I look at the history of oil prices and what it has actually done to the economy -- and see $150ish oil as an inconvenience and a minor drag on the global economy -- not a reason to raise the flag of doom. So the real question might be how long can the global economy live with escalating crude oil prices, while EV's and green energy ramp up.

If Tony Seba's estimates via the S-curve and pricing are any indication, the first world will be OK. The third world, of course, could be a very different story.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4034
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 05:00:54

ROCKMAN wrote:Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.

So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.

Sorry chief ,not all oil is equal . That is like saying there is no difference between moonshine ,bourbon,scotch and single malt . All whiskies are whiskey . You have forgotten more than I know about the oil industry ,but on this one you are incorrect .
dirtyharry
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri 07 Apr 2017, 09:53:43

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby dirtyharry » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 05:05:05

ROCKMAN wrote:Hey guys: oil from shales, oil from tar sands, oil bleeding from my ass: it's all oil. And US consumers don't consume oil...they consume refinery products. And the stuff used to produce those refinery products has not reached a plateau yet. Probably soon IMHO...but not yet.

So stop f*cking around and answer the critical question: what does "falling off" the plateau look Luke in numerical terns.


To continue if all oils are equal why do we have different types of oils after refining ? We have different engine oils,transmission oils,differential oils ,why not one oil for all applications .
dirtyharry
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri 07 Apr 2017, 09:53:43

Re: When do we fall off the undulating plateau? Pt 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 29 Oct 2017, 05:23:49

dirtyharry wrote:why do we have different types of oils after refining ? We have different engine oils,transmission oils,differential oils ,why not one oil for all applications .


Because different applications require oils with different characteristics. Here’s a simple example—-in summer you run one kind of oil in your car engine, and in the winter in really cold places you shift to a different oil with lower viscosity that won’t turn into sludgy tar when the temperature drops.

Get it now?

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20514
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: pstarr and 26 guests