AdamB wrote:SugarSeam wrote:Cool. Please explain how using less oil will be possible while also maintaining BAU for a linked global economy.
You mean, like the world did between 1979 and about 1992?
AdamB wrote:Having lived through that entire time period, it didn't look all that difficult. You are aware that in the late 1970's we were told that by the late 1980's we would be RUNNING OUT, right? Not peaking, but running out? So when global peak oil hit in about 1979, it was all quite terrifying for awhile. The internet wasn't around for the 12 true believers to get together and slap each other on the back about how cool it would be, that came with Peak Oil 2.0. Or is it 3.0 now? In any case, I suppose the answer to your question is we'll do the same thing now, that we did back then. 7 years after global peak in 1979, the price crashed in 1986 (sound familiar...peak oil in 2008 or so according to TOD, 7 years later....??? GLUT!) and we had lower prices for nearly a decade and a half.
SugarSeam wrote:AdamB wrote:SugarSeam wrote:Cool. Please explain how using less oil will be possible while also maintaining BAU for a linked global economy.
You mean, like the world did between 1979 and about 1992?
A temporary condition that also led to three global recessions, two of which had growth under -2.0%, and the eventual collapse of the former Soviet Union. Got it.
SugarSeam wrote:Help me understand the flippant approach to debating this topic. Has it led to much success for you?
SugarSeam wrote:Anyhow, while some people in the 70s misread Hubbert and the Club of Rome's conclusions, that doesn't at all change what they said. You're also equating a man-made peak of the 70s (apples) to a geological/economic one today (oranges).
SugarSeam wrote:We have a short-term glut due entirely to easy credit and limited storage capacity.
SugarSeam wrote:And, already, U.S. production has begun the long-predicted nosedive, and most analysts admit it will be extremely difficult to ever lure back those laid-off workers and investment capital, if/when prices return.
SugarSeam wrote:If using less (and producing less) is such an "easy game," why didn't we?
SugarSeam wrote:Does your argument include a passage where you attempt to suggest the oil/gas industry PREFERRED to turn to 3-4x-cost extraction/refinement methods? Probably not - they turned to tight oil production because they HAD TO.
SugarSeam wrote:Just admit: It is no longer economical to produce oil past the total that flat conventional production provides.
AdamB wrote:Global GDP throughout the time period in question. No global recession. Where do you get this stuff, you just say it, and hope that others aren't capable of using google?
AdamB wrote:I did. Don't blame me for your lack of resolve.
SugarSeam wrote:AdamB wrote:Global GDP throughout the time period in question. No global recession. Where do you get this stuff, you just say it, and hope that others aren't capable of using google?
Gosh, What's a global recession?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/22/whats-a-global-recession/
In economics, a recession is a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. It is also a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity.[1][2] Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP (gross domestic product), investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
SugarSeam wrote:In any event, they absolutely existed, no matter what unlinked source you cite pertaining to steel production. (??)
SugarSeam wrote:
As to the rest of your response:AdamB wrote:I did. Don't blame me for your lack of resolve.
So because you allegedly used less oil, a world expecting BAU obviously can too.
SugarSeam wrote:This miss-the-point, irrelevant passage really sums up the disconnect here. I didn't realize I was acknowledging a trollish champion of logical fallacy. Now I do.
ralfy wrote:Finally, the point to consider when it comes to peak oil is not oil price but production cost, as well as diminishing returns as seen in investments vs. oil production increases.
kublikhan wrote:Let's not forget the average age of the US vehicle fleet is nearly 12 years old. New cars sold today are 70% more efficient than the fleet average. Even in the highly unlikely event that fuel economy improvements cease completely from this point forward, we are still looking at a 70% improvement in fuel economy just from replacing the junkers alone. Add to that some modest downsizing and we could very easily double fuel economy.
SugarSeam wrote:So because you allegedly used less oil, a world expecting BAU obviously can too.
This miss-the-point, irrelevant passage really sums up the disconnect here. I didn't realize I was acknowledging a trollish champion of logical fallacy. Now I do.
ralfy wrote: which is likely in a world where most countries are still developing.
AdamB wrote:Gosh, look, the definition of recession as continued growth. Imagine that!! I wonder what MSM mouthpiece decided that a recession doesn't even have to be a recession to be called a recession.
I'll stick with the normal definition of recession thanks, the one that actually has negative growth rather than redefining recession as..you know...yet more growth.
radon1 wrote:
They will never develop in the current conditions. In order to develop in the current conditions, they need to service the developed market (the US and the rest of the west to some extent), but the capacity of this developed market to consume is limited.
ralfy wrote:radon1 wrote:
They will never develop in the current conditions. In order to develop in the current conditions, they need to service the developed market (the US and the rest of the west to some extent), but the capacity of this developed market to consume is limited.
They have to service that plus a growing global middle class:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470
At the same time, the "developed market" relies on that same growing middle class to increase its own income and ROI.
The catch is limits to growth:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g-collapse
SugarSeam wrote:So, you're not denying that's from the IMF's definition of a recession, not a random blog's. Good choice.
AdamB wrote:SugarSeam wrote:So, you're not denying that's from the IMF's definition of a recession, not a random blog's. Good choice.
I don't care what the IMF's version is,
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