by evgeny » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 14:52:33
What wanted by Americans, is to stop Russia in its expansion on the West, defence of a line of Carpathians. And to make it, it is necessary to have the mighty ally. Whom will they choose for the decision of this problem? It is enough to look at a card. And it is unimportant, who will correct in the near future to our country - Obama, Bush or someone another, - America will make everything that Poland was stronger, - the American political scientist George Fridman in interview ' Zhechpospolitoj '
Peter Zyhovich: whether Poland Can stake on such unreliable ally, how the United States? In America have passed elections and it seems that Barak Obama will refuse the ABM.
George Fridman: Poland should wish the rate to America. It does not have choice. And all this ABM - absolutely unimportant, a minor question. Poles should cease so to worry because of it. Even if Obama will cancel this project, anything terrible does not happen. It will not have the slightest influence on long-term strategy of the USA in relation to Poland. The ABM is not a strategic problem. A strategic problem is that Russia some years will return to the nearest on the Polish border. Through Belarus, and also around Carpathians.
Item З: Ukraine is already lost?
Д.Ф.: the western forces there recede, and influence of Russia grows. It occurs not only because of internal political dismantlings, but also and because of economic structure of this country. Orange revolution represented in Ukraine only one political fraction, and in long-term prospect it can appear that at all the strongest. The duel which was conducted in Ukraine by the USA and Russia, has ended. That has occurred in Georgia, has shown to people in Ukraine that the international guarantees cost nothing.
Item З: Not only in Ukraine.
Д.Ф.: I guess that in Poland too many have come to a conclusion that membership in the NATO at all does not guarantee safety. However the Russian operation in Georgia has worked to the USA, as an alarm clock call. America always clears up late but when clears up starts to operate quickly. The USA have realised that Vladimir Putin revives imperial power of Russia. And, hence, begins expansion on the West
Item З: And on a way there is Poland.
Д.Ф.: Poland settles down in exclusively neuralgic point - between Russia and Europe. Therefore you are the natural ally of America, the unique country which in a condition to constrain the Russian aspirations. So, both parties or not, rapprochement between our countries inevitably want it. It is a geography question.
Item З: During cold war the role of such buffer country was played by the Western Germany. Why America will not return to this concept?
Д.Ф.: because the Russian and German interests - at least in power questions - now coincide. Germany is not potential Antirussian force, but the state which can create the union of the Western Europe with Russia. And such union is absolutely inadmissible from the point of view of America. It would be too strong combination. Therefore now Poland becomes our strategic ally in this region.
Item З: But whether Poland is not too weak to become the European Israel?
Д.Ф.: certainly, it is weak. And consequently the United States should make its mighty.
Item З: How? After all without placing in our territory of the ABM about ridiculous ten intercepting rockets?
Д.Ф.: no! Once again I repeat: Poles should to cease worry, at last, because of the ABM. This installation has not something in common with protection of your territory because for this purpose it, really, at all was not useful. This makeshift. And we speak about strategic interests. What wanted by Americans, is to stop Russia in its expansion on the West, defence of a line of Carpathians. And to make it, it is necessary to have the mighty ally. Whom will they choose for the decision of this problem? It is enough to look at a card. And it is unimportant, who will correct in the near future to our country - Obama, Bush or someone another, - America will make everything that Poland was stronger
Item З: What is concrete?
Д.Ф.: the American strategy in such cases always same. The help in creation of powerful economy and transfer of military technologies in huge scale. As you have correctly noticed - the Israeli model. But it is possible to specify and other examples: South Korea, Japan or post-war Germany. America usually does not use own army in considerable quantities. Its purpose - to create a situation in which its allies become power.
Item З: Sounds a little fantastically.
Д.Ф.: and as though you have reacted, if in 1950 I have told to you, what the poor, destroyed South Korea becomes regional power with unusually strong economy? You would deride me. And after all it was much more difficult to present that Korea of that time will achieve such status, than today's Poland. And, besides, if we speak about searches of the ally in the Central Europe America knows that the Polish culture is much more dynamical and is strong, rather than culture German.
Item З: Thanks big.
Д.Ф.: I speak seriously. Germany since the Second World War psychologically weak. Pay attention that Angela Merkel in Petersburg when has met president Medvedev recently has told. She has told that the NATO will extend more. It very much an important point in the history. Because Merkel instead of going to Washington, has gone to Petersburg, obviously having supported Russia, instead of America. It is critical point which shows weakness of Germany in relation to Russia. At Germany is not present the slightest desire to enter confrontation with Russia.
Item З: And Poles is?
Д.Ф.: Perhaps also is not present - but you will not have a choice. If you settled down on 500 miles to the west, you, for certain, should not worry because of it. Here speech at all about the Polish desire, and the Polish answer to Russian desire. And it is huge.
Item З: I on a place of Americans would try to destroy, however, the German-Russian union and would count on stronger Germany
Д.Ф.: it is the truth: the German economy is stronger at present, than Polish. But after all it is a socialist dinosaur. And Poland was not generated yet, at you all ahead. Today you are weaker than Germany, but your possibilities of development much more. When I look at Germany I see the country which aspires to the agreement with Russia. When I look at Poland I see the country which does not presume such agreement.
Item З: And what you see, looking at the United States?
Д.Ф.: the country which uses Poland - I ask not to feed illusions - for restraint of Russia. America operates according to the national interests. And that interests of Poland and the United States coincide so it even is better for you. For the USA Poland is now more important than the majority of other countries in the world. If Russia was in decline, the American interests in Poland would be minimum.
Item З: That is, the more strongly Russia, the should be stronger Poland.
Д.Ф.: Americans should ask themselves a question: how to neutralise Russia without an extra risk for itself. For this reason they will intend the big means for development of Poland. And when Poland becomes stronger, it becomes the leader of central-east Europe. Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, the Baltic states and the Balkans which looked till now at Germany as on the economic engine of region, will turn towards Poland. It becomes smaller, but much more dynamical engine. Poland will return itself the historical role of the regional leader. A role which played I Rech Pospolitaja.
Item З: When it can occur?
Д.Ф.: it will be long process. It will not occur for five or six years. I think, more likely, years 20-30. Many countries of Europe should change the belief which are reduced today to that if I in EU I do not have economic problems and if I in the NATO I do not have military problems. War in Georgia has shaken belief in reliability of the NATO, and financial crisis has shaken belief in reliability of EU. If these lessons are acquired in the countries of central-east Europe, and the Polish economy becomes powerful rapprochement process т between Poland and the smaller countries of region will become the inevitable.
Item З: But how this rapprochement will look?
Д.Ф.: at first, of course, it will occur in the field of economy. But in due course, when threat from outside Russia will increase, and the NATO will weaken, there will be military communications, and in due course as well the political. What political system of this formation, not so important will be. Important that Poland becomes power round which other countries will gather many.
Item З: I understand that for Americans such Poland should be so strong what to have possibility to protect. But whether it can reach such power to fling away Russia from the borders and to return Belarus and Ukraine?
Д.Ф.: one - is faster, no. The same as the Western Germany during cold war, which was strong enough to detain an attack, but there would be no in a condition a misfortune to Soviet Union and to crush it. Poland can perform offensive operation only together with the United States.
Item З: I did not mean military confrontation. If Poland was so is attractive, in Belarus and in Ukraine there could be again colour revolutions, and these countries would unite with it.
Д.Ф.: well, well, I expect that as a result Russia will not sustain rivalry from the USA. While Poland will gain in strength, Russia will weaken. It will face more and more serious internal problems. Demographic, economic and others. Now it can seem rather viable, but it is one visibility. Inside already there are same processes which have led to disintegration of the Soviet union. And in decline of Russia Poland, really, can make territorial acquisitions.
Item З: Outstanding Polish political publicist Stanislav Tsat-Matskevich has created the theory about ' the exotic unions '. In its opinion, the exotic union is the union with the state which is far from our borders. In a war situation - as it has occurred in 1939 - the exotic ally will not help us.
Д.Ф.: when in 1939 you concluded the alliance with France and Great Britain, it were the decadent countries which are falling into decay. America is something absolutely other, it is younger and more active. The United States during the American revolution had ' the exotic ally ' - France - and it has justified itself. Perfectly well operate and ' the exotic unions ' between the USA and Israel or South Korea. So matter is not in distance, and in with whom you enter into alliance.
Item З: however, it is difficult To me to believe that when Russian bombers will start to bomb Warsaw, America will risk thousand soldiers and will send us to the aid the army.
Д.Ф.: and it is correct. It will not be. But the American army never came to the rescue also of Israel. We so do not do. We give you the weapon which will make you so strong that you could protect yourselves.
Item З: Without nuclear warheads we hardly can be protected from Russia. Whether we will receive them from Americans?
Д.Ф.: more half a century any country did not apply nuclear missiles. The role of the nuclear weapon is overestimated. Not it determines a war outcome.
It is a question not of use of these rockets, and about force of fear. When two hostile countries have the nuclear weapon, they are afraid to attack against each other. It is the American nuclear potential will be your force of fear. We will clearly tell Russian: as soon as you will use the nuclear weapon, we will immediately undertake reciprocal actions.
Item З: If not nuclear missiles, that then?
Д.Ф.: that is necessary for you and that Poles will receive - mighty aircraft with ultraprecise bombs, magnificent anti-tank system and pilotless planes of the newest generation. The future Poland will have the superiority over Russia because behind your back there will be a war industry of the USA. She will allow you to create army, much more powerful, than Russian. I once again will refer to an example of Israel. In 1948 when there was this state, it was militarily weaker than the neighbours. How are you doing are now - and it is not necessary to explain. The question which is set today to themselves by Poles, sounds so: ' Who will protect us? '. It is a bad question. Present should sound so: ' Who will present us industrial base that we could arm? '.
Item З: Recently we have bought 48 fighters F-16 from America...
Д.Ф.: this beginning only of great process. Acquisition F-16 will lead to that in Poland thousand excellent military technicians will be trained. And when these technicians will leave aircraft will get the own firms based on the newest technologies. It will impulse all your economy and technological development. Purchase of these F-16 for Poland is a hundred times more important, than any ABM. Because it is the first step on a way to creation of the Polish military power leaning to the USA.
Item З: However, F-16 have caused in Poland ambiguous reaction. Many say that it is out-of-date planes. Why, for example, us have not admitted to program F-35?
Д.Ф.: because you are yet ready to F-35. At first become champions in use F-16. You should study technology bases, understand that such modern aircraft. F-16, the simple fighter, perfectly corresponds to these problems. It is used also by Israelis and Koreans. F-35 meanwhile is not present even in our aircraft because it is underfulfilled. So be not afraid - earlier or later you receive and F-35. The USA adore to sell planes to the allies. Eventually, we earn on it the big money. But before it we should make economically mighty power that you were able buy these cars of Poland.
Item З: you think, what in this century will reach the polsko-Russian war, or the future conflict will remind, more likely, cold war?
Д.Ф.: more likely, the second. However, Poland as power will soon have much more serious problem. New force and the new contender will appear in Europe in the XXI-st century. Turkey. I expect the conflict of these states on the Balkans.
Item З: Poland and Turkey - world powers? Whether not too far-reaching assumptions?
Д.Ф.: in the beginning XX nobody considered the United States as world power. Powers will be born quickly and, as a rule, it not those countries on which all stake. The next decades forces of Germany and Russia considerably will decrease. There will be a vacuum in which there should be a new mighty player. The geography says that it can be only Poland. If you use this chance, you can become the engine of Europe and one of the major states in the world. Especially, if you lean against the ' exotic ' the ally. However, about what we here speak, all is simple and will be - you do not have choice.
Item З: Either we become power, or we will lose independence?
Д.Ф.: yes after all it is an old historical problem of Poland. In a XIX-th century Prussia, Austro-Hungary and Russia were too strong for you. Today Austro-Hungary already is not present, Russia which seems such strong, all becomes weaker, and Germany loses the value. But when old powers tend to decline, always there is something new.
Item З: When you have mentioned Turkey, I have thought about XV and XVI century. Germany then was shattered and weak, and with Russia nobody was considered. Poland was the mighty state, and Ottoman empire with which we were at war on southeast boundaries was our main contender.
Д.Ф.: I will answer so: in my new book - in which I describe how the world history in this century will go - among other cards I have placed a card of Poland to sections. The history likes to repeat.
George Fridman - the outstanding American political scientist. 12 years ago has based private prospecting firm ' Stratfor ' which gives to the clients the analysis of the international situation. The son of the Hungarian Jews who managed to escape during the Holocaust and after war - through camp of refugees in Austria - to leave to the United States.
Fridman which have grown in New York has finished there Cornell University. Then many years taught in various American higher educational institutions. Analyzed history of cold war, was engaged in geopolitics and the modern military doctrine. Was the adviser of some the high-ranking American military leaders on safety issues.
Last edited by
evgeny on Sun 23 Nov 2008, 19:04:16, edited 1 time in total.