What Comes After "Collapse"?

[Whitefang]

We humans are not helpless leaves in the wind, that is but self pity.
We drain our energy with a self dialogue high on importance, full of indulgencies and that makes us bleed energy needed for this strategic play, a personal world, a stage, a set up.

Brains are no help, just look at the great Gould, this man is huge!!!!!!! Biologically speaking.
This idiot has no intelligence to control his own bodyweight.
Okay, he fought against cancer and won the battle this time, he survived. No judgement, no excuse for idiocy since I know I am very indulgent and just plain late to do what I should have done decades ago.
It does not matter that you can read books, do you know how and do you do save energy is what matters.
This is not even the world that matters for all fading, dying around us anyway.
We have a hidden option though, a link with the Spirit. Your body of feelings made concreet, another real you that does not talk about his life, your lives.
We all talk to ourselves, that is our disease, the outer forms are those concerns we have, we worry, indulge and then die from routines and bad habits like pity and importance.
Natural to prepare on things coming at you.
You will be dead or reawake when this is all over.

Odds are against anyone now, at best hunter gatherer for years, decades maybe before something new if at all.
PO and abrupt CC

[vtsnowedin]

[But why would the shops be empty?

Well you said they weren't full of crap and I expect that they won't be adequately full with quality essentials. Failed systems see a lot of empty store shelves.

[AgentR11]

But why would the shops be empty?

Well you said they weren't full of crap and I expect that they won't be adequately full with quality essentials. Failed systems see a lot of empty store shelves.

It was another poster that wrote that, however, lacking crap in a smaller shop, is not really equivalent with empty shelves. For a Walmart, sure, there aren't enough essential type stuff to fill all that space; but for a smaller shop, swapping in local product and owner-produced merchandise does not equal empty shops. It does equal less variety. Having some empty shelf space, is more probable; with a restricted wholesale net to pull from, it'd be harder to keep a consistent amount of stock, without improperly upsizing your inventory. Might be able to get some slack out of non-perishables, but there are only so many bags of dried fruit and fish that you can keep on the shelves and still hope to move product.

[Pops]

If you're just really looking to kill some time this afternoon, here is a 15 page paper titled

Peak Oil, Energy Descent, and the Fate of Consumerism

Short Form: Preemptive simplicity.

[Heineken]

It's all fine and dandy until you get sick or are injured and need an ER or a real hospital. That's where the die off part will come in for each of us .

Yes, this is a central truth that receives entirely too little play on the pages of PO.com.

Why is it so much worse to die of an injury or Influenza as opposed to Alzheimers? Everyone gets to die.
Personally, I'd rather not do it in a hospital. (unless they bribe me with LOTS of morphine, then we can talk...)

A sadder side though, is that surviving to twenty will once again be a challenge. Without medical care, I myself would have been toast at least four times before twenty. Just something to think about.

Because disease of this nature, left unchecked, effects everyone regardless of age. It can devastate populations and peel away people living in their most productive years, leaving critical gaps in societal support.

I think Vermont's point was that a paucity of basic medical care in the future will be a key factor in a rising death rate.

[Shaved Monkey]

The world needs a rising death rate and a falling birth rate.

[vtsnowedin]

[
Personally, I'd rather not do it in a hospital. (unless they bribe me with LOTS of morphine, then we can talk...)

quote]

I think Vermont's point was that a paucity of basic medical care in the future will be a key factor in a rising death rate.

In the last week my family has dealt with the passing of my beloved mother-in-law who succumbed to her third bout with cancer only after completing her personal bucket list by holding her twelfth grandchild (11 lbs. 5 oz.)by hanging on more then six months past what any professional thought was possible. With the aid of palliative care and the visiting nurse association (and as much morphine as was needed) she died at home in the arms of her eldest daughter (my wife) and surrounded by half a dozen other family members. She had enough notice to get all her affairs in order and did everything as she wanted it done. We should all be so lucky.

[careinke]

Here's something I posted a few months ago (updated a bit) about what economic decline will look like for most Americans:

--Economic malaise (stagflation) for next several years, then rapid decline to Great Depression or worse with no end in sight—1930s-level depression within 5 years (10 at the most), even worse by the 2020s

--30-50%+ unemployment, rapid decline of the middle class to working poor (if they're lucky)—current working poor decline to shantytown status or worse

--Employment becomes more informal and precarious (odd jobs, part-time, under the table, bartering, etc.)

--Multi-family / extended family living situations become the norm

--Even more radical polarization of wealth in US society, most rich stay rich, middle class dissipates to near nothing, ranks of poor explode

--Shantytowns spring up around the country, growing year by year

--Food becomes a much more significant expense, especially for the newly impoverished, supplies are far more irregular, dependence on food banks much greater, national waistline shrinks

--Air travel again becomes a luxury for the wealthy only

--There are still cars on the road, but they're older and usually packed with paying passengers

--Bare grocery and other store shelves, marked decline in availability of imported goods, collapse of regular supply chains, regular shortages of some consumer goods

--Open air gray markets and bartering become a regular part of life, people rely on swap meets, Craigslist, and backyard gardens more than Walmart

--Possible fedgov rationing of essentials + associated hoarding and blackmarket activity

--Equivalent of $10+/gal gasoline/diesel/propane, if you can get it (twice that on the black market, which some times may be the only place to get it)

--Electricity becomes more expensive, and supply becomes more unstable, regular brownouts and rolling blackouts as economy declines

--Real estate market declines to next to nil, abandonment of commercial and residential property in some areas (perhaps most markedly in suburbs)

--Massive currency devaluation (hyperinflation?), which may mean less reliance on cash transactions for day-to-day living

Pretty much the way I envision it, except I would add a totalitarian government. A toss up right now between a Fascist or a socialist one, but totalitarian none the less.

[careinke]

It's all fine and dandy until you get sick or are injured and need an ER or a real hospital. That's where the die off part will come in for each of us .

Yes, this is a central truth that receives entirely too little play on the pages of PO.com.

Why is it so much worse to die of an injury or Influenza as opposed to Alzheimers? Everyone gets to die.
Personally, I'd rather not do it in a hospital. (unless they bribe me with LOTS of morphine, then we can talk...)

A sadder side though, is that surviving to twenty will once again be a challenge. Without medical care, I myself would have been toast at least four times before twenty. Just something to think about.

Because disease of this nature, left unchecked, effects everyone regardless of age. It can devastate populations and peel away people living in their most productive years, leaving critical gaps in societal support.

Perfect!! Exactly what the earth needs.

[Lore]

Perfect!! Exactly what the earth needs.

Who's earth are you talking about, yours, mine or someone else's? Seems to be a rather subjective conclusion. As for the earth itself, it really doesn't care.

[Serial_Worrier]

The "earth" couldn't care less one way or another.

[vtsnowedin]

The "earth" couldn't care less one way or another.

Perhaps Carinke means "what the rest of the living organisms upon the planet earth need" , as in the less of us there are the better off all the other living things will be.

[Thralen]

After the fact, and in my opinion that fact will include a large percentage of die-off in the USA, people will start trying to get it together again. If, and only if, the .gov is reformed to be smaller and less of a leech on the taxpayer then it may well be possible to get a functional society going again in the USA.

The federal government is not the all-powerful demon god that right-wing propagandists pretend it is. At this point it seems to be primarily an appendage of Wall Street. Contrary to the pronouncements of “conservative” demagogues, government is not the average American's primary problem. The economic aristocracy is.

I never claimed that the .gov was all powerful. I was pointing out the fact that if you barely have enough to get by and then someone taxes you, you are sunk. I am pretty sure that if there is a collapse, a lot of those still alive will have only barely enough to get by. Therefore my "less of a leech" comment.

Thralen

[Shaved Monkey]

Post War(and even during War) England is a pretty good scenario were rationing is introduced,all available land and able bodies are used to grow food.
Government employees inspect farms and catalogue how much live stock you have.People would try and hide pigs,subsidies where given to people to grow certain thing like pigs.
I was watching the Turn Back Time The High Street War episode
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ6s1p3I ... re=related
basically your priority as a shop keeper wasnt to make a profit but to monitor rationing.

[radon]

I think the aristocracy will likely finalize its cooptation of the federal government within the decade...

Sounds like Marx.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_the_Soviet_Union

The Soviet Union had a non-industrial railway network of 147,400 kilometres (91,600 mi), of which 53,900 kilometres (33,500 mi) were electrified...
For the USSR in 1989 (shortly before the collapse), the railroads hauled nearly eight times as much ton-km of freight by rail as they did by highway truck...
As a result of having a shorter rail system plus more freight traffic, the USSR had a freight traffic density (in ton-km per km of line) 6-7 times higher than the US...

There is so much fat to cut. I did not find the exact number, but my recollection is that in the Soviet times 70-80% of all SU transportation was done by rail. Car ownership was rare, roads were empty and enjoyable to ride. My guess that in the US the rail transportation ration has been roughly reverse and most transportation was done by truck (like 80%).

The "reformist" economists here (including my economics professor) argued years ago that the Soviet system was dumb and that everything should be transported by highways rather than railroads, pointing to the US example.

So now we have hordes of car owners spending their weekends in the city traffic jams for having nothing better to do. While Russia's population declined some 10m during the last couple decades, Moscow's grew some 4-5m. The people keep coming in and buying/renting in the remote suburbs as they are unable to afford a city dwelling. Of course, they need a car to get by.

Many buy really expensive cars, locking into many year car loans eating like 80% of their disposable income (of recruiters/waiters etc.), while sharing a room somewhere in the slums - usual thing these days. Because the ad says to them that this is their chance to get a decent date partner. So they date each other.

If the collapse means that these butterflies go to their hometowns and play computer games instead of congesting the city roads during the weekends...

Back in 1989 the main problem was empty shelves, rather than the transportation mode.

[vtsnowedin]

I think the aristocracy will likely finalize its cooptation of the federal government within the decade...

Sounds like Marx.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_the_Soviet_Union

[There is so much fat to cut. I did not find the exact number, but my recollection is that in the Soviet times 70-80% of all SU transportation was done by rail. Car ownership was rare, roads were empty and enjoyable to ride. My guess that in the US the rail transportation ration has been roughly reverse and most transportation was done by truck
.

You guess wrong and as you were right there in Wiki why not just click it up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transporta ... ted_States
Mode of intercity
freight transport Ton-miles (millions) Percent
Air 15,731 0.35%
Truck 1,293,326 28.50%
Railroad 1,733,777 38.21% Domestic water transportation 591,276 13.03%
Coastwise 263,464 5.81%
Lakewise 51,924 1.14%
Internal 274,367 6.05%
Intraport 1,521 0.03%
Pipeline 903,811 19.92%
Oil and oil products 572,000 12.60%
Natural Gas 331,811 7.31%
Source: 2005 estimates by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics[7]

Freight transportation is carried by a variety of networks. The largest percentage of US freight is carried by trucks (60%), followed by pipelines (18%), rail (10%), ship (8%), and air (0.01%).[8] Other modes of transportation, such as parcels and intermodal freight accounted for about 3% of the remainder. Air freight is commonly used only for perishables and premium express shipments. The difference in percentage of rail's share by ton-miles and by weight (10% vs 38%) is accounted for by the extreme efficiency of trains. A single railroad locomotive may pull fifty boxcars full of freight while a truck only pulls one. Trucks surpass trains in the weight category due their greater numbers, while trains surpass trucks in the ton-miles category due to the vast distances they travel carrying large amounts of freight.

Usually cargo, apart from petroleum and other bulk commodities, is imported in containers through seaports, then distributed by road and rail. The quasi-governmental United States Postal Service has a monopoly on letter delivery (except for express services) but several large private companies such as FedEx and UPS compete in the package and cargo delivery market.

[radon]

You guess wrong ...

Well, your data shows that I was not off the mark - I was talking about the ratio of the railroad to highway transportation. In terms of the freight percentage the disbalance is even more pronounced than I thought - 10 to 60, meaning that over 80% is transported by truck in the US in terms of the rail+truck transportation modes.

But leaving aside those calculation technicalities, the point that I was trying to make was that the existing transportation modes (like rail) provide a quite a bit of potential for efficiency optimization.

The wider point is that a change in transportation patterns, even if significant and even if forced, is not the same as economic/energy collapse.

[SeaGypsy]

Reminds me of the 15,000 mile orange, picked in Brazil, squeezed in Sydney, dehydrated and distributed to 'licensed rehydrators' then repackaged and redistributed throughout the South Pacific. With a label legally allowed to say "100% JUICE" on the front whilst in miniscule print on the back "sourced from imported and locally grown rehydrated fruit juices. "Sugar Free!" (up to 3% sugar by weight allowed for 'seasonal variations in flavour)'. FAT TO CUT APLENTY, where do we start?

[radon]

Hence I predict a significant dark age before things are running gently enough for rebuilding to be actively pursued. The western Roman Empire did not fall in a day, it was more like a century, but it stayed fallen for hundreds of years.

Dark ages require barbarians invasion. Basically, barbarians came in and exterminated the Romans with all their knowledge. Quite a bit of this knowledge was preserved by the church, however.

The Turks were quite advanced and progressive at the time of their heyday.

Wherefrom will we get barbarians these days?

[vtsnowedin]

You guess wrong ...

Well, your data shows that I was not off the mark - I was talking about the ratio of the railroad to highway transportation. In terms of the freight percentage the disbalance is even more pronounced than I thought - 10 to 60, meaning that over 80% is transported by truck in the US in terms of the rail+truck transportation modes.

But leaving aside those calculation technicalities, the point that I was trying to make was that the existing transportation modes (like rail) provide a quite a bit of potential for efficiency optimization.

The wider point is that a change in transportation patterns, even if significant and even if forced, is not the same as economic/energy collapse.

I think you are misreading that data. Ton miles is the key as almost every load that goes by rail gets to the rail yard by a short truck trip and then another trip from destination rail yard to customer.
To your broader point if all the lighter cargoes that are now going by truck alone were pushed to rail by high fuel prices the existing rail system would need to be doubled and that would take years. You could do it eventually but you might starve while you wait. I thought it interesting that 19% of the ton miles goes by pipeline. That system will prove to be most valuable in the future.