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Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 11:34:05

Up until a few years ago, even well informed scientists studying the subject assumed that, even on a heating world, the planet would remain basically habitable--that you would not die from going out into the heat.

But then a study pointed out that GW not only raises average temperatures (already 1 degree C, 1.8 F above pre-industrial levels), but also raises average humidity levels (already by over 7%). This combination of added water vapor on top of the added heat makes for a deadly combination for large warm-blooded animals like humans.

At only 35 C (95 F) if humidity is 100% (called the wetbulb temp), the body cannot cool itself, no matter how much it sweats or how big of a fan you have, and no matter how little you move.

After about 6 hours in those conditions, you start to, quite literally, cook in your own skin.

It was shown that with 12 degrees C additional warming from GW (now predicted to come potentially some time in the next century ), these temps will start to be widespread and common, and at a bit higher range they cover most of the currently most densely populated regions on the planet (India, east China, eastern US, much of the ME, Africa, Australia and South America...).

http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/research ... imits.html

http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewir ... tinct.html

But it turns out that we are already approaching those 'wetbulb' temperatures today, in Pakistan, where the wetbulb temps have been about 33: https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2 ... -pakistan/

So again, it looks like the science may have erred rather extremely on the side of understating the issue (quite different from the claim that climate science tends to be alarmist).
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 11:59:24

Perhaps humans will become more nocturnal or crepuscular. During summer time I become more crepuscular; getting my outdoor chores done early in the morning, and most evenings I work outside until dark. I often take a siesta during the hot afternoons. Another strategy is to adapt to hotter temps. Plenty of examples of human populations adapted to very hot/humid climates. We have no house-wide air conditioning (cool the house at night and close it up during the day to retain the coolth), though our bedroom has a small window unit for my wife's "night sweats". I find we're much better adapted to the hot summers than most of our friends and family who live in climate-controlled conditions. Then again, I grew up in Georgia with no AC.

Anyway, I love my evening chores as the deer, frogs and owls become active. My habit is to not leave the garden until the bullfrogs in our pond are in full chorus. I sometimes have to shoo them off of the garden road so they don't get squished. Amphibians have the right-of-way at my place.

When it gets just too damn hot, an ice cold gin & tonic usually does the trick :-D
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:10:08

Yes, more and more work will have to be done at less convenient times, as in when you can't see a damn thing! I'm not sure you're getting the point, though:

Even if you are doing absolutely nothing, unless you are in AC (and do your really think that 9 billion people can all be supplied with AC?), you die. So it doesn't matter if you're resting during the day. You still die.

That's just the physics of the human body. Yes, of course, some people can handle heat better than others. But it is simply a physical impossibility for humans to survive very long in wetbulb conditions at or over 35.

Now if you're talking about genetically engineering humans to be cold blooded or something, maybe you would be on to something! :)
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:12:19

It feels colder in the shade or with a fan on. Still, it is a genuine concern. No question about it.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:17:40

OMG, you guys still don't get it.

If wbt's are at or above 35, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU'RE IN THE SHADE OR IN FRONT OF THE STRONGEST FAN EVER MADE, YOUR BODY CAN'T EVAPORATE SWEAT OFF YOUR SKIN, SO YOU COOK IN YOUR OWN SKIN AND DIE.

It' really just basic physics.

(Maybe I need to put that in bigger font, bolded, underlined, italicized and in a nice shade of puce to get it across better?? :-D )


Living organisms can only survive within a certain temperature range. When the ambient temperature is excessive, humans and many animals cool themselves below ambient by evaporative cooling of sweat (or other aqueous liquid; saliva in dogs, for example); this helps to prevent potentially fatal hyperthermia due to heat stress. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling depends upon humidity; wet-bulb temperature, or more complex calculated quantities such as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) which also takes account of solar radiation, give a useful indication of the degree of heat stress, and are used by several agencies as the basis for heat stress prevention guidelines.

A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan;

at this temperature our bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it.[7]

Thus 35 °C is the threshold beyond which the body is no longer able to adequately cool itself.

A study by NOAA from 2013 concluded that heat stress will reduce labor capacity considerably under current emissions scenarios.[8]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature

Of course, for all wbt's up to 35, yes, shade, rest, good health, and a nice breeze or fan can be a great help.

But at 35 and over, NONE OF THOSE THINGS MATTER--EVERYBODY DIES.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:27:30

dohboi: "I'm not sure you're getting the point, though:

Oh, I get it allright. Before temps get that high, our food systems will have crashed, we'll likely see mass die-off from other things like tropical disease, war, failed systems (economic, political, heathcare, energy, lack of good water....) all of the above and more. I get that humanity is pretty well screwed and that whomever survives will do so due to extreme adaptations like going underground, being nocturnal and feasting on green slime algae and jellyfish...
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Apneaman » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:28:40

Blistering Pakistan heat wave leaves nearly 2,000 dead over last two weeks


http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2015/0 ... Yw3uVIV1NE


But don't worry folks there is simply no way that can happen in a modern country right? When a heat wave hits say the USA the power will always be there for the fans and AC.

Aging US Power Grid Blacks Out More Than Any Other Developed Nation

http://www.ibtimes.com/aging-us-power-g ... on-1631086


2003 European heat wave

"The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540.[1] France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. Peer-reviewed analysis places the European death toll at more than 70,000."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:29:31

dohboi wrote:OMG, you guys still don't get it.
If wbt's are at or above 35, IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU'RE IN THE SHADE OR IN FRONT OF THE STRONGEST FAN EVER MADE, YOUR BODY CAN'T EVAPORATE SWEAT OFF YOUR SKIN, SO YOU COOK IN YOUR OWN SKIN AND DIE.


Stop the ALL CAPS hysteria. Temperature isn't a constant. There's such a thing as microclimates. Go into the city and the asphalt causes a heat-island effect. Go into your basement during a 100' day and it's 20+' colder. Go into a pool or lake and you're colder.

I'm not saying heat isn't a big deal, but there are coping mechanisms.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:32:59

You said that shade or a fan would help.

It doesn't. Not when ambient wetbulb temps are at 35 or over.

If you can't acknowledge when you're wrong about something, there's not much chance of learning much here.

(And by the way, shouting occasionally is good for the soul! :-D "I know I'm shouting; I like to shout" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UX4bkuRqp0Y

And the term 'hysterics' is sexist.)
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:36:02

Thanks, Apneaman, by the way, for those relevant points and links.

And GHung for the very good point that humans aren't the only ones who suffer and die at or near these temps--the crops and animals we depend on are mostly even more sensitive to these types of conditions.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:36:32

dohboi wrote:ambient wetbulb temps are at 35 or over.


But ambient temperature isn't a constant. That's my point. Go into your basement on a 100' day and the "ambient" temperature will be a hell of a low colder than it is outside, because the earth is like a giant fridge (hence root-cellars).
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:36:52

Rubbing alcohol....
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:41:30

"Rubbing alcohol" :lol: :lol:

Yeah, drinking a few pints of that should put you out of your misery! :lol: :(

But really, does anyone know if rubbing alcohol is used for hyperthermia in conditions where people don't have immediate access to ice, etc?

Or did you mean that maybe we could be genetically engineered to sweat rubbing alcohol?? Cool! 8)

ETA: But note: "IPA [=isopropyl alchohol=rubbing alcohol] absorbed through the skin can also cause poisoning."

http://www.healthline.com/health/isopro ... #Overview1
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:43:07

Water (ice) is the new oil ...

Image

and what happens to those without money? ...

Image
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Paulo1 » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:46:22

That's why God made basements. :) Seriously, climate migration and conflicts, yes. Everybody will die, probably not.

If folks believe your extreme prognostications, then they should move, now. If people do not make changes in how they live and where they live, then I guess they'll just have to suffer along.

I guess we'll just have to see how it all unfolds.

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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 12:55:16

Vox, thanks for that perspective.

Paulo, nice (implied) point--the vast majority of the globe's populace, especially the poorest, don't have basements to run to.

My point about dying was simply the physical fact that at 35 C wetbulb temperatures, everybody dies.

Yes, of course, there will be (and already is) a lot of migration and conflict to try to escape these conditions.

But remember that this is not a steady, predictable, day-by-day advance in average temperatures that you can watch carefully and decide when to move.

Given natural variability and on top of that the increasingly erratic nature of weather systems, some places will continue to experience much the same range of temps they always have, then suddenly get hit by this kind of killer high-wbt heatwave that no one will be prepared for.

Then, yes, when wetbulb temps hit 35 or higher, everyone who doesn't have access to AC or a basement will die, even if their in perfect shade under gale-force winds.

That's just physics.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 14:38:33

dohboi wrote:At only 35 C (95 F) if humidity is 100% (called the wetbulb temp), the body cannot cool itself, no matter how much it sweats or how big of a fan you have, and no matter how little you move.

Such flat assertions shouldn't be made, IMO. Perhaps the average human, or fat and old humans in poor condition would have a big problem with those conditions. But fit or heat-tolerant people, not so much.

In KY, where humidity is generally VERY high in the summer and it sometimes gets over 95 degrees, especially in an un-airconditioned house, friends and I have dealt with this for MANY hours or days at a time. When I was a child we only used the air conditioning about 3 times a summer -- during the worst and long heat waves.

And yet, here I am, typing on the internet. I DO think a fan can help greatly - it can make you feel dryer and cooler, even if far from cool, when it is extremely hot.

I don't think flat assertions like this which ignore differences in people make much sense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 14:55:01

OS, you're just wrong, here.

The average fit, healthy person dies under those conditions withing about six hours. Read that quote again. These are not from some wanker just making random guesses and wild claims.

And there is a big difference between 95% humidity and 100%. It's almost impossible to get 100% humidity.

Generally, "35 wbt" involves a hotter basic temperature with a lower humidity level. There's a chart somewhere out there to figure it out. Maybe I'll hunt it down for you bastards. :lol:

ETA: Here's a calculator for wbt: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_rh

Do people think that I'm just making this shit up like KJ, or something??!! I have supplied many links to many very legitimate sites and studies.

Argument from incredulity is, well, it isn't an argument.

In normal circumstances, ie, anything below 35 wbt, yes, a fan will help.

But above that level no fan no matter how strong is going to cool you off one tiny bit.

Again, this is very, very basic physics here, folks. Fans normally cool you off because they increase evaporation rates of sweat off of your skin.

But sweat can't evaporate off your skin if humidity is 100% and your body surface is the same temp as the air.

It's a physical impossibility.

....

Look, your all going on your own experiences, which are quite valid for other circumstances.

But the whole point here is that we are entering circumstances never experienced by humans, where most of the tricks that once worked to keep us cool will not work any more.

So don't tell me about your own experiences with heat and humidity. They are irrelevant, since you have never experienced ambient conditions of the sort I'm talking about. They don't exist on the planet.

The closest you could come would be to try to live in a very hot and steamy sauna for six hours.

If anyone wants to try that little experiment, be my guest--you could win an award (of the Darwin variety! :lol: ). And please feel free to keep the strongest fan you can find blowing on you the entire time and stay completely in the dark...it won't matter; you will still be dead (and lightly cooked) within six hours.
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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 15:00:17

If it's RED - you're DEAD

Image

If you don't have AC get below ground or find a cave and wait for the "All Clear" ...

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Re: Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jun 2015, 15:07:13

dohboi wrote:OS, you're just wrong, here.

The average fit, healthy person dies under those conditions withing about six hours.

And there is a big difference between 95% humidity and 100%. It's almost impossible to get 100% humidity.

Generally, "35 wbt" involves a hotter basic temperature with a lower humidity level. There's a chart somewhere out there to figure it out.

Do people think that I'm just making this shit up like KJ, or something??!! I have supplied many links to many very legitimate sites and studies.

Argument from incredulity is, well, it isn't an argument.

In normal circumstances, ie, anything below 35 wbt, yes, a fan will help.

But above that level no fan no matter how strong is going to cool you off one tiny bit.

Again, this is very, very basic physics here, folks. Fans normally cool you off because they increase evaporation rates of sweat off of your skin.

But sweat can't evaporate off your skin if humidity is 100% and your body surface is the same temp as the air.

It's a physical impossibility.

So if it's almost impossible to get to 100% humidity, why are we discussing it as though that puts us all at dire peril?

I can tell you that I have a 71 year old friend who 2 years ago lived in his trailer a WEEK during an extreme heatwave during very high humidity, where the thermometer read 99 degrees or more every time it was checked. Oh, and he never exercises, has a terrible diet, smokes, and has some heart issues, like a complete left bundle branch block (electrical signal problem).

Hint: At over 95% relative humidity, this put him well within your "fatal" zone for a good 20+ TIMES the supposed limit of six hours.

I was worried about him, but he refused to let me go get him a portable A/C unit to cool the room he stayed in. Instead, he stayed naked, and used fans, and was just fine.

Just like all the poor people who live in extremely hot places like Africa year after year are just fine.

But I know, we're all doomed. Let's not let the obvious get in the way of arm waving.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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