Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Wetbulb T Death: Here Now; More To Come

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 14:37:52

The problem with the Six Degrees book IMO is the founding premise is BAU must continue and if it does not that is a catastrophe. It would really be awful to live in Indiaif it becomes phisiologically impossible for humans to live there without technology. However India already has a major problem with feeding its massive overshoot population. Is it all all realistic to say they can not feed themselves in a plus six C world? Certainly, if they can not do it now we should not expect that to change without amassive population reduction.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4296
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby sparky » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 17:06:25

.
Are we talking of the biological extinction of the Human specie or of the severe disturbance of human society ?

I don't know about the society part but the biological bit is wrong , a lot !
our order ,the Primates appeared during a time of very elevated temperature ,
to this day humans live in very hot places much more easily than in very cold places

Some highlights of the Wikipedia entry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene ... al_Maximum

The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), was a time period with more than 8 °C warmer global average temperature than today .
Proxy data from one of the studied sites show rapid +8 °C temperature rise, in accordance with existing regional records of marine and terrestrial environments.[45]

The climate would also have become much wetter, with the increase in evaporation rates peaking in the tropics. Deuterium isotopes reveal that much more of this moisture was transported polewards than normal.[26]

Humid conditions caused migration of modern Asian mammals northward, dependent on the climatic belts. Uncertainty remains for the timing and tempo of migration.[45]

The increase in mammalian abundance is intriguing. There is no evidence of any increased extinction rate among the terrestrial biota. Increased CO2 levels may have promoted dwarfing[46][47] – which may have encouraged speciation. Many major mammalian orders – including the Artiodactyla, horses, and primates – appeared and spread around the globe 13,000 to 22,000 years after the initiation of the PETM.[46]



the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum has become a focal point of considerable geoscience research because it probably provides the best past analog by which to understand impacts of global climate warming and of massive carbon input to the ocean and atmosphere, including ocean acidification.[7]
Although it is now widely accepted that the PETM represents a "case study" for global warming and massive carbon input to Earth's surface,[3][8] the cause, details and overall significance of the event remain perplexing.
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3265
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 17:29:21

to this day humans live in very hot places much more easily than in very cold places

Yes but that presupposes a access to fresh potable water, not a given in many areas and especially with our swelling population and looming temperature increases. Oh and our agriculture is what by far uses most fresh water. So that is a concern.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9294
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 19:00:44

Sparky, there's another thread for mass die off, there's no doubt that's a scientific reality to everyone here. My OP is very specific regarding "temperature to extinction," not sure how you can be confused.

Interestingly I had no idea 8c is the maximum the earth can increase (from current temp) and that so far 45% of the poll voters believe there will always be human habitat available regardless of any possible global warming.

Personally as an archivist of many lost cultural artifacts of the world, I'd be very happy to see McPherson and Cid be wrong.
Do not seek the truth, only cease to cherish opinions.
jupiters_release
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 20:35:27

jupiters_release wrote:Sparky, there's another thread for mass die off, there's no doubt that's a scientific reality to everyone here. My OP is very specific regarding "temperature to extinction," not sure how you can be confused.

Interestingly I had no idea 8c is the maximum the earth can increase (from current temp) and that so far 45% of the poll voters believe there will always be human habitat available regardless of any possible global warming.

Personally as an archivist of many lost cultural artifacts of the world, I'd be very happy to see McPherson and Cid be wrong.


Do you think that fundamentally 45 percent of us are optimistic and 55 percent are doomers, or do you think you discovered some other effect?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4296
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 20:50:00

Subjectivist wrote:
jupiters_release wrote:Sparky, there's another thread for mass die off, there's no doubt that's a scientific reality to everyone here. My OP is very specific regarding "temperature to extinction," not sure how you can be confused.

Interestingly I had no idea 8c is the maximum the earth can increase (from current temp) and that so far 45% of the poll voters believe there will always be human habitat available regardless of any possible global warming.

Personally as an archivist of many lost cultural artifacts of the world, I'd be very happy to see McPherson and Cid be wrong.


Do you think that fundamentally 45 percent of us are optimistic and 55 percent are doomers, or do you think you discovered some other effect?


I was under the impression 45 percent were thinking we wouldn't reach another 6c for centuries or millennia, not that 6c wouldn't mean extinction. So much more optimistic than I imagined!
Do not seek the truth, only cease to cherish opinions.
jupiters_release
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 21:29:39

I recall some sources referring to 6C.

Also, I think six billion dying is just as bad as more than six billion dying.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4821
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 21:47:45

I find it interesting in these extinction threads how it seems to matter a lot to people that the race can continue, if very diminished, as opposed to outright extinction.

Somehow it comes across as if they think it's all OK, everything is fine, so long as there is a viable breeding population left.

I wonder what that says about our thinking. The good part of that is that these folks seem to imply severe reductions in our population are acceptable.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10509
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 22:12:19

Newfie wrote:I find it interesting in these extinction threads how it seems to matter a lot to people that the race can continue, if very diminished, as opposed to outright extinction.

Somehow it comes across as if they think it's all OK, everything is fine, so long as there is a viable breeding population left.

I wonder what that says about our thinking. The good part of that is that these folks seem to imply severe reductions in our population are acceptable.

On the contrary I think a drastic reduction in population is inevitable regardless of what anybody thinks about it and I also think that the extinction of humanity is unlikely also regardless of what anybody thinks about it.
Of course extinction is final except for what few species that manage to out last us which might be just cockroaches and microbes. A very boring world indeed. But if we avoid extinction along with enough other species to support us there is the opportunity to start anew, hopefully having learned to avoid a repeat of our present follies.
So no, just having a viable breeding population is not"just fine" but it is much better then the extinction alternative.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8876
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 23:06:03

Newfie wrote:I find it interesting in these extinction threads how it seems to matter a lot to people that the race can continue, if very diminished, as opposed to outright extinction.

Somehow it comes across as if they think it's all OK, everything is fine, so long as there is a viable breeding population left.

I wonder what that says about our thinking. The good part of that is that these folks seem to imply severe reductions in our population are acceptable.


I don't think we have any chance of avoiding extinction, but I like to partake in not-so-healthy bargaining/dreaming stage time to time. Most of my Japanese family died of radiation poisoning past few years and they didn't even live in Fukushima prefecture. When sea levels rise I have no faith nuclear plants will be contained much less prevented from uncontrolled meltdowns. Minimization of 'local' effects of radiation on this board surely informs similar perceptions on global warming's severity. Also vtsnow's "master of environment" assumes a "separation from environment" view that got us into this tragedy first place.
Do not seek the truth, only cease to cherish opinions.
jupiters_release
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 01:11:58

just a reminder.....the question says how much more temperature increase can we handle before our extinction becomes likely...and another 3 degrees on top of the 1 degree we have already caused....( or perhaps more if the slow downward trend pre 1750 AD had accelerated ) ....definitely puts us in the firing line of unstoppable positive feedbacks.....driving us up to 6 degrees ....and at the very least mass dieoff...if not total extinction

if I put my rose coloured glasses on perhaps some of us could survive in the polar regions ....if the toxic oceans don't wipe us out .....and the nuclear fallout from failed reactors doesn't get us .....and we haven't been wiped out by nuclear war....and we can put some form of agriculture back in place

i'm sure there are several more "if's " I haven't thought of .....

have a nice day......
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2245
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 02:21:53

I'll just remind people again that you don't just get increased heat. You also get increase average humidity.

And it is the combination of those that will make (probably already starting to make) large swaths of the planet uninhabitable to humans and to the crops and animals we depend on for food and other things.

Though the lethal 35C (95F) wet bulb temperature has not yet been reached on earth (that has been accurately recorded), we have come close recently and will doubtless surpass it somewhere in the next very few years. From there it will just become more frequent, more widespread and more long lasting.

And not just in the tropics. One place that approached this wet bulb temp back in the 90's was western Wisconsin, just a few miles from where I sit.

The speed of the change will also be something that will be lethal to many other species and will test our abilities to survive as well.

And, as various studies by various militaries around the world have shown, these changes will also trigger various kinds of regional instabilities, that will spread to other regions, as we see now with the refugee crises.

I don't pretend to know at what temp things totally fall apart. They are already falling apart for many Pacific islanders, various folks living on low lying coasts, and elsewhere.

What we already have locked in (even by 'conservative' estimates) is certainly going to be...a challenge...to survive. And we keep making it worse by pouring ever more dozens of billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. And of course GW is just one of many threats we face.

Best wishes to all for insights into our gloomy future in this New Year! :-D :( 8O
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17429
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 06:39:13

jupiters_release wrote:Also vtsnow's "master of environment" assumes a "separation from environment" view that got us into this tragedy first place.

I would not say separation from but a contest with the environment we face.
Unlike the life forms of 250 million years ago we have brains and occasionally use them. We will not wander around in a newly formed desert until we die of starvation or thirst but will find and move to a better place or build what controlled environmental spaces as we need to survive and produce our food. Most of us are already urban and the percentage is rapidly increasing. It is agriculture that will be the biggest problem and what limits us to a much smaller population then our present seven billion but a lot of food can be grown in an acre of glass green house and we are not going to run out of sand to make glass with.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8876
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 08:25:11

Not the sand but the energy to melt and technology to form.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10509
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 09:01:24

Newfie wrote:Not the sand but the energy to melt and technology to form.

There is plenty of hydro power to make glass plus solar and wind. Especially if they are recycling glass from landfills. The technology is old and we won't forget how to do it.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8876
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 10:39:28

We are envisioning two different futures or perhaps two different time lines.

I see a 6° rise pushing the few survivors to the poles. There will be mass die off, most likely a lot of nasty fighting in the prelude. In that interim most infrastructure will be destroyed. The victors will have a hard time defending against the loosers who will want to take revenge and who will be desperate.

But even if dams and turbines survive who maintains such things? So presuming hydro power, unless you mean on a personal basis, is presuming a technological base that barely exists in the USA at this moment.

There will be no acient landfills in the habitable zone.

Of course none of us actually KNOW what will come, all mindless speculation.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10509
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 11:00:25

Liquid cooled garments like the astronauts wear will be the next big stock market play. Off to research who sells these.
User avatar
Cog
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10414
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 11:54:59

http://www.eastessence.com/islamic-clot ... -Disdasha/

Cog, you don't need an astronaut suit (battery hog), you need an Arab thobe (passive cooling) in summer white to stay cool. Since you just need the utility of the desert garb but do not have to conform to the culture of the people where it originates, you can have your favorite NFL logo, or a phrase like
"Have a Nice Day" or the NRA logo embroidered on it to give it some personality.
User avatar
efarmer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2000
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 03:00:00

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 12:08:05

and yet the MSM celebrates Janet Jackson having a child at 50 ......and Mick Jagger fathering another one at 70......it would appear the conversations we have here are a long way from the conversations of the great majority of people

what will it take to get our so called leaders talking about the danger and the stupidity of human overpopulation?........especially as we continue to increase the risk of creating large zones of the planet where human life is extremely challenging..........and especially in the countries where we are consuming a disproportionate share of the planets resources
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2245
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 12:32:02

I doubt we will Kiwi because those conversations don't work when you need to get re-elected.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10509
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests