Well... I'm just not ready for all this!

[WildRose]

Does peak oil represent a catalyst to a new paradigm or a slow falling back to the historical norm of a much smaller elite and larger peasantry?

Whatever your answer to this question has a powerful impact on how you position yourself economically and psychologically in preparation of coming resource constraints. In either case frugality is a primary meme for a growing disenfranchised underclass. If we do this collectively it will represent a paradigm shift.If we do this preserving a powerful elite and growing impovershment of the middle class and serfs than the status quo will be preserved.

I find this compelling, Ibon. Could you please expand on this, especially the sentence I bolded?

Wild Rose, what I found so compelling 8 years ago when the peak oil light bulb went off in my head was that this would be a catalyst that would dissolve polarities, bring the global civilization together in some mega Sputnik moment that would enable us to collectively confront solutions to this great peril.

Today, for reasons I just outlined in my last post to AgentR11, I no longer believe this.

This is a depressingly sad realization, believe me. Being an inherent optimistic facing this truth has not been easy. It is not mentally healthy to contemplate the consequences of peak oil at the same time as you realize it will not move significantly the status quo which will only remain more entrenched.

For this reason you may find me increasingly absent from this site. I no longer find peak oil as a concept contributing very much toward any collective realization of our collective peril.

It is valuable to understand peak oil, become a realist around the need of frugality, and then for me atleast, drop it as a possibility of mobilizing humanity toward some paradigm shift.

Find your own niche of family friends and place and be grateful for the harmony and balance that this brings to your life. Do not make your mental well being dependent on seeing society as a whole waking up to the reality of peak oil. To do so will bring only anguish.

Thanks, Ibon, for sharing those thoughts.

I am an optimist by nature, and I guess over the years my way of dealing with all of this has been to be as proactive as I can, to think of the challenges I may be facing and how to best navigate them. I've believed the average Joe would be better off supporting the small businesses around him instead of growing Walmart, and learning to barter services with people in his own community, and to support local farmers with his dollars. Those actions would give more power to individual communities and make them less reliant on those at the top. But, if the average person's income is shrinking, will the Walmarts and Targets get even [i]more[i] of the little guy's dollars because they can draw him in for cheaper toilet paper? At some point, a lot of people will realize they can no longer afford the lifestyle they've grown used to, whether that's because of inflation or reduced income or job loss or some combination thereof, and maybe then they'll want to support their own communities in a big way? Or, will it be too late by then, because small businesses will have fallen by the wayside due to a shrinking economy? Or, conversely, could the big box stores be crippled by high fuel prices?

I'd like to think that by making our communities stronger, we could see a paradigm shift.

[Ibon]

The elite, while it'd be easy to say, "they can do whatever"... Its far from the truth; physical assets are hard to protect, e-assets are vulnerable to systemic hazards; personal security for the full family gets costly and less dependable the more you have to depend on people just doing the job for the money.

Your post was spot on in many ways. I would like to elaborate on what you wrote above and bring back the developing country model once again to illustrate something that is very pertinent to the US.

I have mentioned in past posts that politics in Latin America have moved from the ideological to the pragmatic in recent years (exception Venezuela). We saw socialism in the 70's into the 80's and then privatization sweep through the region up until the beginning of the 21st century. In the past 8 years however we have seen an interesting political reality emerging in countries like Brazil. Influential politician who were ideological socialists 25 years ago have become presidents. (Lula, Rouseff, Cardoso) They have all fully supported free trade and capitalism as they have increased the social safety net of the poor. This has been expedient for the self interest of the elite. I found a blog entry that illustrates this here that is worth reading

http://jlebl.wordpress.com/2009/08/24/w ... socialist/

To your point Agent, I agree completely that food stamps and basic social support of the poorest will continue as an agenda of self interest. As inequities increase we will approach what we see today in Brazil.

These are all examples of the resiliency of preserving the status quo and further my argument that there is no real paradigm shift that will radically disrupt the current economic model. This is perhaps the only point where we disagree somewhat Agent. But I don't think we are far apart in our view of things.

As I mentioned before this does make one reconsider the power of the consequences of peak oil to act as a catalyst toward transformation.

[Ibon]

I'd like to think that by making our communities stronger, we could see a paradigm shift.

Yes, as a consequence of an economic reality that cancels out the benefits of buying made in China. For example, once transportation costs cancel out the benefits of manufacturing stuff 15000km away (i.e. Iron production) or when wage disparities decrease. This can be supported by smart government subsidies keeping the poor engaged, fed and entertained but within the constraints that governments wont be able to afford very much. All of this WILL result in making communities stronger.

AgentR11 advocates a pragmatic approach to recognizing where you are in the power structure and adapting yourself accordingly. Accepting that which cannot be changed. Within that acceptance you can build strong communities on the local level but always from within the economic and class structure you find yourself in.

A paradigm shift is perhaps underway in so much that ideology will more and more become trumped by the expediency of limits.

This is not a cultural revolution directly although indirectly we may see many benefits that do result in valuing more your local community.

This new pragmatism is not very romantic or idealistic and is not the stuff that dreams are made of. Adapting to this and the frugality that this entails does indeed represent a game changer in how one orients himself or herself but it does not disrupt the established status quo. That is perhaps a clarification of the fine point Agent and I are debating here.

[AgentR11]

These are all examples of the resiliency of preserving the status quo and further my argument that there is no real paradigm shift that will radically disrupt the current economic model. This is perhaps the only point where we disagree somewhat Agent. But I don't think we are far apart in our view of things.

I think you may be convincing me about "paradigm"; but I still need a term that fits the abandonment of the US concept of an expansive middle class to which almost all can and should aspire to belong. That is surely a dead end now. Stamping a college degree on an average intellect without substantial wealth/assets can no longer make that person "middle class", it only changes the math a little, where they make a little more, but the delta is simply transferred back to the banks that funded the college degree in the first place. For a little while there, the degree was enough, but it could never last.

Honestly, this was a core concept, a definitive "who we are" kind of thing for a good 60 years or so worth of Americans; they make up the bulk of the voting population right now; yet what they think we are, no longer is who we are.

[Ibon]

I think you may be convincing me about "paradigm"; but I still need a term that fits the abandonment of the US concept of an expansive middle class to which almost all can and should aspire to belong. That is surely a dead end now.

When you are a member of the 3rd or 4th generation believing this uniquely American concept than of course the loss of what was assumed normative and a birthright of our exceptional nation, is quite a blow.

What we may find surprising is how quickly after one or two more generations this concept will fall out of the American collective consciousness. What we assumed was such an integral part of our cultural identity is really quite ethereal and impermanent. We will still be an exceptional culture nonetheless.

I see this as a glass half full or half empty contemplation.

To mourn what is lost or to celebrate what is still working and vibrant?

Peak oil puts a strain on ideologies. And will eventually lead to a paradigm shift. But it is more generational than within an individual's lifetime. Partially because an individual can only see through the expectations and memes of his own generation and may experience quite serious cognitive dissonance between what he believes and what is actually happening around him. But his or her progeny will grow up with a whole new set of expectations based on opportunities and limits.

All those graduating college students confronting the psychological impact of the loss of this birthright of a guaranteed middle class status will not be something their children will even understand

[SeaGypsy]

Just thus year in Australia there has been a big push to get sustainability subjects into all diploma and degree courses. This kind of surprised me as until now these subjects have been constrained to directly relevant courses. I have been back tutoring a couple of weeks now and trying to nut out, is there a paradigm shift underway and if so, what drives it?

AGW is a major focus, peak resources including oil rate a second or third mention with species diversity issues/ population impacts. Why though all of a sudden is this fully mainstream? (at least here?)

What you just wrote twigged it for me Ibon. Australia has had a persistent and growing problem with youth suicide. Millions have been spent researching this epidemic and the next major emerging self toppers, my middle aged peers. Among the changes recently has been a reversal of a long standing suppression of details. A few days ago a 28 year old father jumped with his 2 year old from a Brisbane bridge and it was talked about immediately all over the MSM. This has gone on for years, but we have only just begun to hear about it.

It turns out that the majority of middle aged suicides are men who struggled to get into the employment market way back when they were leaving school, during the recession of the mid 80's. They became long term un-employed/ under employed, and are rapidly losing hope of ever getting anywhere now another serious global recession begins to bite.

The State, in my perception, is protecting it's interest with this change/ addition to mainstream education. The next generation is being prepared for a blow. This was whispered about being off in the future somewhere by my more radical teachers 30 years ago, now is the time and it's in everyone's face, young people more than anyone.

I wonder of the thousands of 1st world youth suicides each year how many mention ecological insanity in their last letters?

It's still way too early to call it a paradigm shift as yet, being a surprise to me in little ole' Australia. We tend to be the test template for a lot of NWO initiatives. Mainstreaming peak issues is happening, but under the smokescreen of AGW. Both are a worry, but it seems topsy turvy to teach it this way, being that peak oil is likely to total our economies way sooner than AGW is to fry our collective behinds.