Well... I'm just not ready for all this!

[Mesuge]

Perhaps unprecise wording on my part, by "running into the woods" S and W of DC, I just refered to all those semi rural communities (incl. arable land) over there..

As to your contention of non-disorderly post PO situation development in the US, what sounds as "nutty" to some makes for others one of the top possible scenarios. I'd not use such definitive statements as yours though, as there is simply no civilization in recorded human history, which survived intact, even after mild reset. Regularly harsh period of instability follows, incl. large population reshuffle among other "more horrible" things..

As I mentioned in other thread if optimistic doomer-lite like Kunstler is not affraid to relocate straight into the middle of NY state, that's perhaps the good gauge how to form a compromise on location in terms optimal distance from major infrustructrure, farm land, fresh water, etc. As it at least forms some usefull buffer to evaluate next steps when facing more expedient scenarios.

[pstarr]

I agree with Mesuge on this one; we have never had a major reset occur in a very short time frame. That is about to happen. IEA reports a world-wide depletion rate of currently peaked fields at 6.7%. Post-peak will be worse. Because new fields still increasing (and many giants already in decline) operate under highly efficient secondary/tertiary regimes that accelerate decline. The first year past the plateau will mean 6 million barrels per day less worldwide (more than the total output of the US (crude/cond.)). The decline is relentless and worse.

Modern industrial societies are critically dependent on precise quantities of oil at the margins. The Oil Expense Indicator shows the precise moment when oil because expensive (or too little) and then productive economic capacity falls below a set point. Almost has if a body is starved of blood or oxygen. For US/modern European countries it's 4-5%/GDP and BAM! the country goes into recession. Too much oil/money/energy is displaced away from socially valuable work and society resets to lower levels of productivity. More money for maintenance (gas/diesel for transport/food/factory) means less money for business investment, loans, credit. Modern just-in-time manufacturing model is particularly vulnerable to these shocks and will cause cascading failures.

Human population exploded from 1 billion to 7 billion because of cheap oil. It will implode just as surely because of expensive oil.

[vtsnowedin]

You call on the belt line of Washington DC a stable location?

It's going to be far stabler and safer than most places, unless there's a nuclear war, in which case, my family will most likely be some of the luckiest ones. The only way the close DC suburbs won't be best is if the whole of society breaks down completely, and to be frank, that is a nutty survivalist fantasy. I don't see any serious scenario where that happens.

At least we have a long growing season here, which cannot be said for some places I can mention.

And as for 'running into the woods', again, we're in nutty survivalist territory with that one. What use are woods when you need to grow food? We are not Ewoks, nor are the Russians invading. Post Peak is not going to mimic 'Red Dawn', no matter how much survivalists want it to.

With the growing season I have I can yield 2000 lbs. of potatoes from fifty pounds of seed. And I am over a hundred miles from any urban center.
You on the other hand have 500,000 or so people that live on welfare of other government assistance living inside the beltway you are on. When we go through our own Greek crisis in a year or so as predicted widely those welfare checks will stop and a good portion of that 500k will riot and start to loot and pillage. They will burn down their own neighborhood the first day or two then move on to fresh ground perhaps moving out at about one mile an hour. You should be able to see the smoke from the burning houses getting closer and closer. Call 911?

[pstarr]

You call on the belt line of Washington DC a stable location?

It's going to be far stabler and safer than most places, unless there's a nuclear war, in which case, my family will most likely be some of the luckiest ones. The only way the close DC suburbs won't be best is if the whole of society breaks down completely, and to be frank, that is a nutty survivalist fantasy. I don't see any serious scenario where that happens.

At least we have a long growing season here, which cannot be said for some places I can mention.

And as for 'running into the woods', again, we're in nutty survivalist territory with that one. What use are woods when you need to grow food? We are not Ewoks, nor are the Russians invading. Post Peak is not going to mimic 'Red Dawn', no matter how much survivalists want it to.

With the growing season I have I can yield 2000 lbs. of potatoes from fifty pounds of seed. And I am over a hundred miles from any urban center.
You on the other hand have 500,000 or so people that live on welfare of other government assistance living inside the beltway you are on. When we go through our own Greek crisis in a year or so as predicted widely those welfare checks will stop and a good portion of that 500k will riot and start to loot and pillage. They will burn down their own neighborhood the first day or two then move on to fresh ground perhaps moving out at about one mile an hour. You should be able to see the smoke from the burning houses getting closer and closer. Call 911?

A bit harsh on an emotional level, but I see little wrong with the structural analysis.

The really really large problem with East Coast suburbs is that they're built on America' prime farmland. That is the fertile Piedmont watered soil that used to grow food of all kinds (grains, vegetables, orchard, livestock) almost all year round without irrigation. To bad we covered it allup with plastic, tar, convenience stores, office parks, crap houses, and neo-pomo shopping centers. I wouldn't want to be there. oh no.

[Cloud9]

I’m curious, what event would cause the psychological shift that would be necessary for a commodities retailer to refuse to accept a government check or federal reserve note?

[Plantagenet]

500,000 or so people that live on welfare of other government assistance living inside the beltway you are on. When we go through our own Greek crisis in a year or so as predicted widely those welfare checks will stop and a good portion of that 500k will riot and start to loot and pillage. They will burn down their own neighborhood the first day or two then move on to fresh ground perhaps moving out at about one mile an hour. You should be able to see the smoke from the burning houses getting closer and closer.

I don't think riots and looting and pillaging in DC is a likely scenario. Even if the US does have a Greek Style crisis, Obama will make sure the government assistance, food stamps and welfare programs are well-funded and able to meet the growing demand, just as he's done for the last three years. If Obama has to decide between what his cuts have left of NASA and foodstamps, he's going to shift the rest of the NASA funds to food stamps.

[pstarr]

Your question doesn't make complete sense. First, commodities are inputs/ingredients into finished products and so are not retailed, but wholesaled. Second a person who is dependent on sales wouldn't refuse money unless their was a better alternative. Like what? Goat milk?

[pstarr]

500,000 or so people that live on welfare of other government assistance living inside the beltway you are on. When we go through our own Greek crisis in a year or so as predicted widely those welfare checks will stop and a good portion of that 500k will riot and start to loot and pillage. They will burn down their own neighborhood the first day or two then move on to fresh ground perhaps moving out at about one mile an hour. You should be able to see the smoke from the burning houses getting closer and closer.

I don't think riots and looting and pillaging in DC is a likely scenario. Even if the US does have a Greek Style crisis, Obama will make sure the government assistance, food stamps and welfare programs are well-funded and able to meet the growing demand, just as he's done for the last three years. If Obama has to decide between what his cuts have left of NASA and foodstamps, he's going to shift the rest of the NASA funds to food stamps.

Dude if you haven't noticed, this isn't a Young-Republicans fundraiser meeting you are attending. It is a discussion of APOCO-FREAKIN-LYPSE!

But to your point; you can't seriously argue that NASA has accomplished anything other than WAR?

[Plantagenet]

Violent crime rate takes huge jump in Washington DC

Maybe the huge increases in food stamps we've seen under obama just won't be enough to stop things getting violent.

[pstarr]

Violent crime rate takes huge jump in Washington DC

Maybe the huge increases in food stamps we've seen under obama just won't be enough to stop things getting violent.

Does everything remind you of obama? Do you imagine him during private moments also?

[Cloud9]

Pstar, I was thinking of the idea of a commodity being something useful or of value not in the sense of commodities being contracts traded on an exchange. My question stated another way: what kind of event would cause a merchant to refuse to sell five pounds of sugar in exchange for an electronic transaction on a SNAP card or three Federal Reserve notes? Simply put, what would cause us to lose faith in the currency?

[careinke]

Violent crime rate takes huge jump in Washington DC

Maybe the huge increases in food stamps we've seen under obama just won't be enough to stop things getting violent.

Does everything remind you of obama? Do you imagine him during private moments also?

P, where you live, you should use pot instead of liquor, it will make you less of a piss ant.

[Plantagenet]

obama... imagine him during private moments

Please keep your sicko fantasy life to yourself.

[pstarr]

Pstar, I was thinking of the idea of a commodity being something useful or of value not in the sense of commodities being contracts traded on an exchange. My question stated another way: what kind of event would cause a merchant to refuse to sell five pounds of sugar in exchange for an electronic transaction on a SNAP card or three Federal Reserve notes? Simply put, what would cause us to lose faith in the currency?

Wouldn't that be hyper-inflation, a reasonable concern the money will have less value than the food next time a person wants to buy it.

[Cloud9]

Hyperinflation is the loss of faith. My question is what causes that loss of faith?

[vtsnowedin]

[/quote][quote="PlantagenetI don't think riots and looting and pillaging in DC is a likely scenario. Even if the US does have a Greek Style crisis, Obama will make sure the government assistance, food stamps and welfare programs are well-funded and able to meet the growing demand, just as he's done for the last three years. If Obama has to decide between what his cuts have left of NASA and foodstamps, he's going to shift the rest of the NASA funds to food stamps. [/quote]
.
.
This year we have had riots in London of all places over college tuition costs of all things. They are having them in Greece almost daily including fire bombs and burned vehicles over the threat of austerity not it's actual imposition. In America riots routinely break out over such serious matters as losing a ball game. Don't try to tell anyone here that if food stamps stopped being sent out or stores stopped accepting them that the recipients would not immediately be in crisis and pushed to desperate deeds trying to survive.
Not possible you say? With a fifteen trillion debt and growing by more then a trillion each and every year going forward how can they possibly prevent it?
The better question is if or when something on that order happens what should DC suburbanite do about it?

[Mesuge]

My question stated another way: what kind of event would cause a merchant to refuse to sell five pounds of sugar in exchange for an electronic transaction on a SNAP card or three Federal Reserve notes? Simply put, what would cause us to lose faith in the currency?

If history recalls any relevant "best practice" examples to your question, one of the well established precedents is just having run away real inflation, I guess something on the order of single digit % inflation changes per week would collapse large parts of any foodstaff related economy to the ground and "underground" i.e. kick start black market, large scale hording where army has to step in etc. And we know that's not even the rate of full blown hyperinflation, which is much worse.

[AgentR11]

My question is what causes that loss of faith?

I can't get away from the idea that under it all, is a "loss of necessity". Not necessity in the sense of bread, sugar, eggs; but as a financial instrument.

Bob the Shopkeeper, NEEDS an amount of currency to pay his taxes, mortgage, and service his line of credit; this guarantees "value", in the sense that without that currency amount, police will come, throw him out, turn off his power, and have the locks changed, and may arrest him and throw him in jail depending on what need he failed to satisfy.

Jane the Homeowner and Consumer, NEEDS an amount of currency to pay her taxes, mortgage, service her car/creditcard debt; these are not optional, failure to transfer the required amounts causes bad people to legally hunt her car, and police to come and throw her out of her home, and if its the IRS, they might arrest even her lowly self.

In short, debt and taxes creates faith in the currency, since only the currency can prevent loss and/or jail.

So, as long as Jane and Bob NEED their currency amounts, they will keep showing up to mix chemicals or open their shop for business.

Then add the throttle, High King Bernanke and whoever succeeds him, they have control over the amount of currency moving around, and can react very, very quickly to add or remove as required. So since we NEED it, and the total supply is controlled, its value is continuously reinforced.
eg, (sum(our need))/(total supply).

[AgentR11]

quick example. in extremis

You buy a bag of sugar for $5. The next day you sell it for $500. That's $495 of income, you better declare it, or you're going to jail at those velocities; so High King Bernanke takes $100 or so out of the supply every time a transaction like that happens.

Because they will come for you.
They will take all your stuff.
They will put you in jail.
And if you resist, you will die.

qed.. value.

[JimG]

If you folks kept to the original post - which I would ask that you please do - remember I was mostly thinking about small/ doable changes I can really make to get more prepared.

I'm not anywhere close to where I want to be.

Skills I'm learning - gardening, canning.
Climbing out of debt.
Not freaking out the spouse.

Was there anything in particular you did to become more prepared?

Pls don't let this thread get hijacked.
I dont really want to read any anti-political/Obama diatribe/ soapbox drivel.
(Hey, if you want to go there, go ahead and make your own post.)

Thank you !
Jim