Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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To celebrate 100 pages, we should start a new thread.
Doug MacIntyre, an analyst at the EIA, said that inventories probably won't rise enough in the coming weeks to reach the lower end of their five-year average by Memorial Day, but he added that's not a cause for alarm.
"I don't want to get into what's adequate, what's not," Mr. MacIntyre said. "We could have adequate stocks with stocks below the lower end of the range. It just means you'll have higher prices."
The National Petroleum Council, an advisory committee to the U.S. Energy Secretary, used to estimate a "minimal operating inventory level" for gasoline, but the EIA stopped publishing it several years ago "because we didn't really know what the minimum operating inventory level was," Mr. MacIntyre said.
However, with imports running at 1.1 million barrels a day to 1.2 million barrels a day and refiners boosting production to 8.8 million barrels a day to 8.9 million barrels a day, "maybe we could start to see a build" and reach the bottom of the range in June when stocks typically draw down, he added.
Unless this situation is cleared quickly there will a be sharp increase in price of refined oil products and attempt to increase stockpiles in case of additional supply reductions from Russia
What if the world is really past peak and the U.S. will not be able to get the oil necessary when the refineries start to run at full speed again?
57% last week. pup is this possible and is it sustainable?
Etika wrote:Russia might've just thrown a wrench into the works with that 1.2 mbpd. Due to their recent diplomatic scuffle with Estonia, Russia has stopped fuel export through Estonia ( http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNew ... 6120070502 ). Quarter of Russia's refined exports are normally routed through Estonian ports to EU so this will have a large impact on refined oil products in Europe. Even though most of this export will probably be rerouted successfully this is a clear threat to EU that is backing Estonia. Unless this situation is cleared quickly there will a be sharp increase in price of refined oil products and attempt to increase stockpiles in case of additional supply reductions from Russia. In any case I suspect that this will have a clear impact on European export in few days.
Russia rail move to hit Estonia
By Stefan Wagstyl in London and George Parker in Brussels
Updated: 39 minutes ago
Russia on Wednesday suddenly announced plans for repairs to railway lines to Estonia in a move that will disrupt oil and coal exports and aggravate the worsening political conflict over Tallinn's moving a Soviet war memorial.
The news from Russian state railways sent oil companies scurrying to secure transport for alternative routes for petrol, fuel oil and other refined oil products normally exported through Estonian ports, which handle about a quarter of such shipments from Russia to world markets. Coal exports will also be disrupted after the railway operator unexpectedly informed shippers of a shortage of wagons.
Yes to both. This is about where it normally runs. Back in the early 90's this number frequently got into the 62-65% range but the product mix has obviously changed gradually since then.
oilluber wrote:hey guys,,, keep up the good work and
the pessimistic data on gasoline inventories...
Now to brighten the mood alittle here,, heck , my oil stocks are
going up. Sit back and enjoy peak oil.
UPDATE: Belgian Oil Unions Mull New Pay Deal; Strike Averted
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
May 3, 2007 7:06 a.m.
LONDON (Dow Jones)--A strike threatening Belgium's oil refineries has been averted for now, after negotiators drafted an improved pay proposal for sector workers late Wednesday, union and employer representatives said Thursday.
The unions will present the draft labor agreement to job stewards Thursday night, and workers will then vote on the proposal in a May 24 referendum, said Herman Baele from the FGTB union.
"The strike has been annulled until we know what the workers think," said Baele.
Fred Van Melkebeke, spokesman for the employers' group, the Belgian Petroleum Federation said: "We have a proposal of a collective labor agreement. We have reached a compromise and a strike will be put off."
Melkebeke said that the pay deal was "unlikely" to be voted down by workers, but added that a rejection would reactivate the 9-day notice period for the strikes.
As far as the inventory numbers moving oil prices a day later, as is often reported in the media, Beutel's not buying it.
"There are no delayed reactions," he said, saying price movements the following day attributed to the report are more likely due to technical trading. "If the market goes higher for technical reasons, the editors don't want to print that. What they are doing is telling little white lies so people think they understand what's going on."
Revi wrote:Since gasoline is at a nationwide average for unleaded regular of $1.94 now I'd say that it's a pretty safe bet that it will go over the $3 mark very soon. When will the real problems start from this gasoline shortage? Could we see $4 gas? That would be more then the Katrina spike. When do you guys see us running into problems of supply?
Dantespeak saidIn the Northeast US, we switch to the summer blend of gasoline about June 1. Plus we have the traditional Memorial Day weekend at the end of May where driving demand is usually heavy. That's the time frame I see problems developing - especially if the Antwerp strike goes forward.
If we hear about the Department of Energy giving 'waivers' to various states about then, that would confirm supplies are low.
EPA Monitoring Tight Gasoline Supply but Rumors of Wavier Requests Prove Unfounded
Oil prices fall
From correspondents in New York
May 04, 2007
Another analyst attributed the price slide mainly to the US government's announcement yesterday that it would halt buying crude for its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), possibly for several months.
"With the DoE potentially halting the SPR purchasing until the end of the summer and the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) hinting at a waiver of complicated summer gasoline rules, it would seem like the administration is making an attempt to head off the rising tide of gasoline prices prior to the driving season," said John Kilduff, of Man Financial.
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