Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2007-08

[Valdemar]

Nice. After that's used, how fares the system then? Will the whole country start facing shortages en masse or is it avoidable still?

[shortonoil]

Valdemar said:

Nice. After that's used, how fares the system then? Will the whole country start facing shortages en masse or is it avoidable still?

The best place to get an answer to this question is to read pup55’s earlier posts. His calculations on this seem to be about as good as we are going to get. His predictions show a very high likely hood of shortages showing up in August, that is, if nothing really goes bad between now and then. It is likely that at some point the general public will panic and start hoarding gasoline; that will strip any reserve we have in hours and bring on a national shortage. This will start at the points most distant from the source of supply, time wise. Our chances of dodging this are small; higher prices of gasoline, in the short term, will probably not be sufficient to cut demand enough to avoid this from happening. Over very short periods of time, months, gasoline is almost totally inelastic.

The question is; how long will it take us to re-adjust to this new circumstance. My calculations show that the US will have to cut its gasoline consumption permanently by 6.5% to bring the system back into balance. That could take better than a year to accomplish, and coupled with a crashing housing market and badly inflated equities market, that will probably result in a very serious economic decline on all fronts.

[UncoveringTruths]

Valdemar said:

Nice. After that's used, how fares the system then? Will the whole country start facing shortages en masse or is it avoidable still?

The best place to get an answer to this question is to read pup55’s earlier posts. His calculations on this seem to be about as good as we are going to get. His predictions show a very high likely hood of shortages showing up in August, that is, if nothing really goes bad between now and then. It is likely that at some point the general public will panic and start hoarding gasoline; that will strip any reserve we have in hours and bring on a national shortage. This will start at the points most distant from the source of supply, time wise. Our chances of dodging this are small; higher prices of gasoline, in the short term, will probably not be sufficient to cut demand enough to avoid this from happening. Over very short periods of time, months, gasoline is almost totally inelastic.

The question is; how long will it take us to re-adjust to this new circumstance. My calculations show that the US will have to cut its gasoline consumption permanently by 6.5% to bring the system back into balance. That could take better than a year to accomplish, and coupled with a crashing housing market and badly inflated equities market, that will probably result in a very serious economic decline on all fronts.

I'm going to time my 3 weeks of Vacation I got coming for when things look like there going down quickly and spend that time wrapping up loose ends. If things go down as you just described all I can say is holy$hit. I dont think it's the end though maybe its the wake up call that we need.

[oilluber]

this peak oil forum is becomming the doomsday forum.
Come on guys, its not the end of the world. Herny Groppe stated
that we have enough oil, expensive , that is. So there should
be enough supplies for those willing to cough up the $$.

The higher prices will curb demand and we will have enough gasoline for the summer driving season and everybody will be happy.

Anyways, $4 -6 bucks for a gallon is what everybody in importing
countries are paying,,, so no big deal.

Let Bernanke print more USD to pay for the expensive oil.

[topcat]

Here, our fuel jumped .25 one day. Two days later, it dropped .06

As long as people will pay $8.00/gallon for water ($1.00/16 oz bottle), why would they hesitate to spend $4.00/gallon for fuel?

[rdberg1957]

$4 is unlikely to impact demand much. I would bet on some shortages. Maybe I should trade in my hummer.

[shortonoil]

In a few hours we will be getting last week’s gasoline numbers. Unless one hell of a lot of imports showed up, or Santa’s elves took over the refineries, we are in one big pile of #$@^.

[DoubleD]

Shortonoil - I have been checking in to see when you folks would post the updated info and your follow on analysis. I don't post much here - but read alot and have to say that this particular thread and it's predecessor is my first check in anymore.

Well done to all of you that contribute the info and analysis. It is much appreciated.

[oilluber]

In a few hours we will be getting last week’s gasoline numbers. Unless one hell of a lot of imports showed up, or Santa’s elves took over the refineries, we are in one big pile of #$@^.

here we go again with the negativity, there is always a silver/profitable lining,,, why don;' you buy some oil futures or
oil stocks and take it easy with the doom and gloom ??

This board is informative, but the pessimism is hard to read.

[chuck6877]

Oilluber,

Shortonoil is being empathetic to the lives of the average American.

The average American is an idiot that does not have investments and lives paycheck to paycheck.

To them a rise in the price of gasoline to $4.00/gallon might feel awfully doom and gloomish especially if their commute is 70 miles round trip in their SUV getting 10 miles a gallon for an $8.00/hour job!......

In the above example Joe Blow will spend $28.00 of his pretax earnings of $64.00 for their 8 hour shift that day on gasoline!

These changes are happening too fast for Joe Blow to know what's hitting him. To him it is doom and gloom like I said earlier.

Peak oil is going to scare the hell out of a lot of people that don't have those oil futures or a $100,000/year job

Sorry but if you think of others losing their jobs and not being able to put food on the table because of economic hardship from the coming high prices and not just yourself, it's easy to get pessimistic,

Jet

[DantesPeak]

Well put chuck6877. Coming up short on oil and gasoline supplies means that some will suffer, and for them it will be doom and gloom.

As for myself, I am not here to predict the price of oil day to day, although I admit to saying sometimes the energy markets have underpriced oil and gasoline and/or are irrational. But we do have another thread and Mr. Bill for those who do want to figure out day to day price changes.

[pup55]

Prediction
Unleaded 4-May
Beginnning Inv mbbl 193.1
Imports Wk/Day 8.4 1.2
Production Wk/Day 62.3 8.9
Available 263.8
Balance Wk/Day 71.1 10.15
Ending Inv Mbbl 192.8
Stated Usage MBPD 9.3
Predicted Change -0.3



Distillates Prediction 4-May
Beginnning Inv mbbl 117.1
Imports Wk/Day 2.31 0.33
Production Wk/Day 28.7 4.1
Available 148.11
Balance Wk/Day 31.1 4.44
Ending Inv Mbbl 117.0
Stated Usage MBPD 4.1
Predicted Change -0.1


Crude Oil Prediction 4-May
Beginning Inventory 335.6
Domestic Prod 36.12 5.16
Imports 70.7 10.1
Total Available 442.42
Provided to Refineries 106.4 15.2
Ending Inventory 336.02
Predicted Change 0.42

Forecast time.

Unleaded: We will go with what we said last week which was that unleaded will be at 9.2 mbpd production by the end of the month, and a linear path between last week and there, so 8.9 this week up from 8.8 last week. Imports: we will stick with 1.2, same as the last two weeks. That leaves demand, which kind of tricky this time of year due to the lull in travel that happens before memorial day. I think a little higher demand than last week. Based on all of this, we should see a small drawdown tomorrow, which is not good, because this is the time of year we should be building inventory. Last year at this time we started to get "the surge" in imports, as much as 1.6 mbpd through the entire month of May, which helped us out all summer. There is no real suggestion that the Queen rode over here on a tanker of unleaded for the Derby this weekend, however.

Distillates: I can't see where imports, production and usage will be much different from last week. We might accidentally get in some more imports, but this will probably be where it is going to be. In a week or the gradual summertime increases noted above will start and we will have to adjust this.

Crude oil: I am having a hard time predicting the imports. For the latter part of March and early April, imports were averaging 10.0 mbpd, but last week they jumped up to 10.3 making my crude oil forecast way out of whack. I am adjusting this to 10.15 this week because I think there is no compelling reason to import crude with inventories this high. The domestic production will be about what it was last week, and the crude oil supplied to refineries will reflect the increased gasoline production, so we will be basically even in inventory, my number says a little draw.

The fun is just beginning.

Gasoline stockpiles increased 150,000 barrels in the week ended May 4 from 193.1 million barrels the prior week, according to the median of responses by 16 analysts before an Energy Department report. It would be the first increase in 13 weeks

``We are still awaiting an increase in gasoline stocks,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``It would be hard to bet on an increase after being disappointed so many times.''

Bloomberg

[shortonoil]

pup55 said:

Prediction
Unleaded 4-May
Beginnning Inv mbbl 193.1
Imports Wk/Day 8.4 1.2
Production Wk/Day 62.3 8.9
Available 263.8
Balance Wk/Day 71.1 10.15
Ending Inv Mbbl 192.8
Stated Usage MBPD 9.3
Predicted Change -0.3

Thanks pup, if this site could provide one very significant contribution to humanity, it would be to clone yourself and the few others here who contribute so much.

My calculations show a decrease this week of .5 mb, which is very close to yours. I agree that demand is the wild card, the effect on demand from the crazy weather we have seen throughout the middle central and eastern part of the country makes it hard to estimate. I guess we will find out tomorrow.

Again, I will reiterate my opinion, that for the month of May, we will see a decrease in gasoline stocks equal to 5.0 mb; which will bring inventory to about 188 mb going into June. This could change if weather conditions seriously affect demand.

chuck6877 said:

here we go again with the negativity, there is always a silver/profitable lining,,, why don;' you buy some oil futures or oil stocks and take it easy with the doom and gloom ??

I gave up trying to amass any additional money, about three years ago, when the realization hit me that such efforts will probably be merely a fool’s errand. I have concentrated on developing what I hope will be a sustainable standard of living during the inevitable readjustment. I can see how one attached to our present way of life and its associated ramifications and perceived benefits could find my view as doom and gloom.

That is not how I interpret it. I look at my evaluation as another analysis of another system. If this particular system, after being closely scrutinized, appears to be in danger of collapsing from various stresses, I must regard it as a system that is in danger of collapsing. Only when I am working in the garden or chasing my chickens, do I feel an emotional attachment to my analysis. The rest of the time it is but a bit of work to steer my life, and the life of the people who are close to me.

If I am in error, I will have lost very little, but a few more rather worthless Chinese do-dads. If I am not in error, but continue to proceed on the route most followed, I will eventually have lost everything.

[pup55]

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected gasoline stocks to rise by 370,000 barrels last week, on average, in a weekly report to be released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Department

.

Yahoo

Weekly U.S. fuel stocks data were to be released on Wednesday. Gasoline inventories were expected to have snapped a 12-week string of declines last week, rising by 300,000 barrels, a Reuters poll of 13 analysts found. Crude stocks were also expected to have risen again. [EIA/S]

Reuters

[strider3700]

I agree with Pup on everything except imports. I'm thinking this is the week for it to pop up to 1.3 - giving us a very minor increase. Next week should be back down to the 1.2 area. If it's not this week I expect it next week

[DantesPeak]

Much attention in the oil market remains focused on US gasoline, which has surged dramatically in recent weeks providing support for crude oil prices around the world. While predictions are that US gasoline stocks will finally start to recover from the slide of the last 12 weeks as refinery runs pick up, any easing of the tightness in downstream oil markets will probably only be temporary. Spare refinery capacity remains scarce worldwide, making it hard for the market to adjust easily to the kinds of strains that reappear every spring in the US gasoline market. And with most of the world's new refinery capacity coming on stream in Asia over the next few years, even an emerging global surplus in capacity will do little to ease strains in the Atlantic Basin, where Europe is likely to remain as short of middle distillates as the US is short of gasoline. Tom Wallin, New York

Energy Intelligence
[sent by email, no link]

[pup55]

Bloomberg

Crude-oil supplies rose 875,000 barrels, according to the survey. Gasoline stockpiles increased 150,000 barrels, according to the median of survey responses. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report on petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. in Washington

[Pablo2079]

The gasoline inventory didn't grow as much as was expected. I believe they were looking for at least a 250k barrel increase.

[Lore]

Just got the report off of CNBC... Gas up 400,000/b, Oil up 5.6 m/b, utilization up .7, what happened?

[pup55]

Unleaded 4-May
Beginning Inv 193.1
Imports 8.4 1.2
Production 62.3 8.9
Available 263.8
Ending Inv 193.5
Balance 70.3
Balance/day 10.04
Stated Usage 9.3
Actual Change 0.4
Deviation from Forecast 0.8

Distillates 4-May
Beginning Inv 117.1
Imports 2.289 0.327
Production 29.4 4.2
Available 148.789
Ending Inv 118.8
Balance 29.989
Balance/day 4.28
Stated Usage 4.3
Actual Change 1.7
Deviation from Forecast 1.8

Crude Oil 4-May
Beginning Inv 335.6
Production 35.826 5.118
Imports 77 11
Total Available 448.426
Provided to Ref 107.1 15.3
Ending Inventory 341.2
Actual Change 5.6
Deviation from Forecast 5.18

pup55 Experts Actual
Crude Oil 0.42 0.875 5.6
Unleaded -0.3 0.15 0.4
Distillates -0.1 0 1.7

The unleaded numbers came in exactly what we said except for demand, which was slightly lower than the 10.15 we predicted, but this is pretty close for some guy on the internet. Note that the imports came in at 1.2, so we are apparently not being flooded by imports yet.

The main surprise on this is the inexplicable importing of 11 million barrels of crude oil per day, which caused the crude oil inventory to sky, since the actual refinery utilization was not high enough to use it up.

The distillates inventory rose by .7 more than I thought because the refiners produced an extra .1 mbpd, no doubt an artifact of the higher refinery utilization.

So, with the exception of the crude oil imports, this is pretty much what we predicted, and no change to the previous idea that the gasoline inventory situation is still quite tight.